With a flat cap next year, I can’t see a legitimate place that Petro could go. I guess the Avs have room, but they’ll have tough decisions down the road.
Assuming a flat cap, 14 of the 30 other NHL teams currently have $15M+ in cap space for next season. A lot of them owe very few raises next year and there are a chunk of good team in the mix:
Detroit: $34M to fill 12 roster spots
Buffalo: $33M to fill 13 roster spots
Florida: $20M to fill 10 roster spots
Montreal: $18M to fill 7 roster spots
Ottawa: $39M to fill 14 roster spots
Boston: $18M to fill 5 roster spots
New Jersey: $25M to fill 13 roster spots
Calgary: $16M to fill 9 roster spots
Los Angeles: $20M to fill 7 roster spots
Vancouver: $17M to fill 8 roster spots
Colorado: $22.5M to fill 9 roster spots
Dallas: $19.5M to fill 8 roster spots
Minnesota: $16M to fill 6 roster spots
Winnipeg: $16M to fill 10 roster spots (almost all of them are RFAs with no arb rights or depth fills)
Other potential suitors with $10M+ in space and enough cap flexibility to make a Petro contract work with marginal pain to their roster:
Columbus: $10M to fill a couple roster spots (exact number is murky considering which injury fill ins they view as NHL players next year)
NY Rangers: $13M to fill 7 roster spots
NY Islanders: $10M to fill 3 roster spots
Edmonton: $10M to fill 7 roster spots (they would likely have to make a move to make everything work, but of the 7 open spots, Athanasiou is the only guy due real money)
Anaheim: $12.5M to fill 5 roster spots (assuming Kesler is LTIRetired)
That's two thirds of the league that has the space for Petro or could create the space easier than we can. Petro might be the top UFA on the market this year. He is without question top 3. A flat cap probably impacts the final number for Petro, but it doesn't decimate the market. The $4.5M jump after Vegas expansion brought in a huge new revenue stream is the only time in the last 5 years that the cap has gone up by $2.5M or more. We heard $84M-$88M estimates less than 2 weeks before the pandemic hit, but most people assumed we would be on the low end of that scale (remember when the NHL predicted that this year's cap would be $83M?). There was absolutely no reason for teams to be assuming a cap higher than $84M when they were doing long term budget analysis last year and there were only 10 days between the optimism of an $84M-$88M number before canceling games and looking at the harsh reality of decreased revenue. There were only 2 contracts given out with $1M+ AAVs between the announcement of that estimate and the league shutdown. It isn't like GMs committed a bunch of money to guys based on a larger-than-expected cap projection. Realistically, a flat cap will mean a salary cap that is $2M or maybe $3M less than what GMs were budgeting for. That will impact the market, but it doesn't knock many teams out of the running for top tier UFAs.
A flat cap will hurt Petro's final value just like it will hurt all UFA's final value, but it isn't going to be a nightmare scenario where half the league is screwed against the cap.