I will need to take an HF Hiatus if Petro signs in Toronto. I actually like the team a lot, but I fear a certain percentage of their massive fanbase would be unbearable.
I think Toronto signing Petro is just about the dumbest thing they could do this summer. Unlike the Blues, they don't really have any expendable/luxury guys that can be moved to shed noticeable salary. Additionally, they don't have any "bad" contracts coming off the books for 2021/22 to reduce the cap squeeze like the Blues do. EVen a massive discount from Petro puts them in a team-crippling level of cap hell. Let's say Petro takes $7M AAV to play with the Leafs. That puts them $2.5M over a flat cap with 5 roster spots to fill next season. Assuming $750k per spot to fill those w/ warm bodies, they would need to shed $6.15M in cap space for next season. So how do they shed that space?
The only real solution is to move Nylander and replace him with another guy making $750k. Extending Mikheyev is no longer an option as he will easily make over $1M. If they want to extend him since he would be a cheap option, then they need to also move one of Kerfoot, Hyman, Kapanen, or Johnssonin addition to Nylander. It is worth noting that none of those 4 guys make enough money to be the ones to get cleared instead of Nylander to fit Petro. You would need to move 3 of them to free up enough space for Petro. Going down this route, the Leafs would need to rely on 4 $750k guys in their healthy 12 man forward group and 2 $750k guys in their healthy 6 man D group. That is in addition to their reliance on $1.25M Pierre Engvall, $2.25M Zach Hyman, and $2M Justin Holl who are already factored into this lineup. Potential lineup:
Hyman-Matthews-Kapanen
Kerfoot-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Gauthier-Engvail
$750k-$750k-$750k
Muzzin-Petro
Reilly-Holl
Sandin-$750k
Andersen
Campbell
That is an incredibly shallow team that is worse offensively than this year's team. It has a better top 3 D, but the defensive depth takes a hit from an already shallow defensive group. And unless they win the division, their road through the playoffs goes through Boston and/or Tampa.
But the real killer is that this group is likely the best they will be able to assemble for a few years. Because guess what? Not a single costly contract comes off the books in the summer of 2021 (except the franchise goalie who needs a raise). Besides Andersen's contract, the only non-ELC contract coming off the books after 2020/21 is Hyman's $2.25 AAV. So their option at that point is to either let Hyman walk and give Andersen all of their remaining cap space (preventing them from giving any ELC player any raise at all) or let their #1 goalie walk with no internal replacement or financial ability to bring in an external option.
And then we get to the summer of 2022. A few contracts come off the books, but none of them are helpful. Reilly is a UFA and due a big raise from his $5M AAV. Sandin will be an RFA off his ELC. Kapanen is an RFA with arbitration rights and will almost certainly require a raise from his $3.2M. Engvall is an RFA with arbitration rights and who knows if he will earn more than his current $1.25M. Backup goalie Campbell's $1.65M comes off the books. Kessel's salary retention of $1.2M finally comes off the books. That's it. That's all the money that gets freed up and pretty much all of it will have to go to Reilly. Goodbye more depth.
And then there is the summer of 2023. Kerfoot comes off the books. He'll be a UFA and likely due a raise over his $3.5M. Johnsson also comes off the books at $3.4M and will be a UFA likely due a raise. Holl also comes off the books to free up $2M. That's it. That's all the salary that gets freed up.
So in the summers of 2021, 2022, and 2023 combined, the Leafs only see $23.45M come off the books. With that money they need either extend or replace UFAs Reilly, Andersen, Kerfoot, Hyman and Campbell. Plus do the same for RFAs Kapanaen, Engvall, Sandin and any other young guy plugged into the lineup on a cheap ELC who earns any type of raise.
Let's put this another way. From 2021-2023, they will need to use $23.45M cap space to extend or replace every non-ELC on the roster besides Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Muzzin and Petro. Unless they trade Matthews or Marner, the absolute best they could do each summer is tread water and not address any depth problems for 3 full years.
To compare, the Blues have about $59M in non ELC contracts coming off the books in the summers of 2021, 2022, and 2023. We have two more guys to extend in that period, but many of them are due raises and we have the flexibility to pick and choose who is and isn't a necessity. Anyone who puts the Blues and Leafs on the same planet regarding cap issues is simply looking at next year's current cap number and nothing else. The Blues are miles ahead of the Leafs in terms of cap management.
And then we get to the summer of 2024 when Matthews and Muzzin hit UFA. Uh oh. And then the summer of 2025 when Marner and Tavares hit UFA. And just like that, the window is closed.
Signing even a discounted Petro would be a disasterous decision for Toronto. They were in cap hell with their existing contracts (even assuming a steady $3-4M increase to the cap each year). Swapping out Nylander's $6.9M for Petro at $7M keeps them in cap hell and the bind gets even worse now that a steady $3-4M increase is all but impossible. Signing Petro with a steadily increasing cap was probably a bad idea for them, but it would be a disaster in the current reality. They just can't afford to have $40M tied up in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Petro. They also can't afford to have $40M+ tied up in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander. But Nylander doesn't have trade protection until 2023/24 and can get moved when the cap crunch gets unbearable. When they do move Nylander, it needs to be done to spread that caps space over 2-3 guys, not one guy. That luxury is gone in a world where the cap is very, very unlikely to rise noticeably over the next 2-3 years.