Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[Stealth JD]

Pietrangelo is a better defender than Josi. Josi might put up better numbers, (which accounts for his Norris nominations), but I honestly think Pietrangelo is a better all around defenseman.

Yep. Which is exactly why i disagreed with the general sentiment of the Athletic article; regardless of what anyone interviewed for the story had to say about it.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Once it got past July then it isn't a surprise that Armstrong was going to be patient and wait for Josi to get signed before really trying to get a deal done with Pietrangelo. I'd expect that we'll see an extension before the end of the year now.

As for LeBrun putting the numbers out there about people around the League thinking Pietrangelo would get X amount less than Josi? I've not read the article, but I know that it's not worth putting any stock in stuff like that. For a start, were those opinions before anyone knew what Josi got?

Whoever he asked would have been assuming perfect market value in their eyes. If Josi signed at $8.5m then would any of them have said that Pietrangelo is only an $8m player? The fact that Subban, OEL, an older Burns, Carlson and Trouba all got have higher % of the cap shows that anyone claiming that would be wrong. Then there is the different tax situation between MO and TN which I doubt anyone considered.

$9m is still probably right around the fair number for Pietrangelo. Still hoping that we can get an obvious discount.

Most of the quotes predicted about 9M for Josi and 8.5M for Pietro. It wasn’t just “.5M less”. It was a very well informed commentariat he surveyed.

I agree that the Josi contract now changes the equation for Pietro in terms of his UFA value, but it may not change what Armstrong is offering.

 

[Majorityof1]

Once it got past July then it isn't a surprise that Armstrong was going to be patient and wait for Josi to get signed before really trying to get a deal done with Pietrangelo. I'd expect that we'll see an extension before the end of the year now.

As for LeBrun putting the numbers out there about people around the League thinking Pietrangelo would get X amount less than Josi? I've not read the article, but I know that it's not worth putting any stock in stuff like that. For a start, were those opinions before anyone knew what Josi got?

Whoever he asked would have been assuming perfect market value in their eyes. If Josi signed at $8.5m then would any of them have said that Pietrangelo is only an $8m player? The fact that Subban, OEL, an older Burns, Carlson and Trouba all got have higher % of the cap shows that anyone claiming that would be wrong. Then there is the different tax situation between MO and TN which I doubt anyone considered.

$9m is still probably right around the fair number for Pietrangelo. Still hoping that we can get an obvious discount.

It was before Josi got his deal. Most gave numbers, although fuzzy one. Most had Josi higher though (9.5 to 10) and a difference around one million (Petro around 8.5-9). So with Josi coming in lower, maybe they are just wrong, or maybe the difference is less. But I doubt Petro gets substantially more than Josi if he is universally considered less valuable.

Here is one example of a quote from an agent:
“The Blues won’t want to pay more than $8.5 million and the Preds $9.5 million, in my opinion. The range will be 8.5-10 for the two of them if they re-sign with their own clubs with Josi slightly higher. They will both be 30 when they start their new deals. The only way to get $10-million plus is to walk free or trade and sign.’’

 

[Brian39]

Once it got past July then it isn't a surprise that Armstrong was going to be patient and wait for Josi to get signed before really trying to get a deal done with Pietrangelo. I'd expect that we'll see an extension before the end of the year now.

As for LeBrun putting the numbers out there about people around the League thinking Pietrangelo would get X amount less than Josi? I've not read the article, but I know that it's not worth putting any stock in stuff like that. For a start, were those opinions before anyone knew what Josi got?

Whoever he asked would have been assuming perfect market value in their eyes. If Josi signed at $8.5m then would any of them have said that Pietrangelo is only an $8m player? The fact that Subban, OEL, an older Burns, Carlson and Trouba all got have higher % of the cap shows that anyone claiming that would be wrong. Then there is the different tax situation between MO and TN which I doubt anyone considered.

$9m is still probably right around the fair number for Pietrangelo. Still hoping that we can get an obvious discount.

It was before the Josi signing. The quotes specifically guessing Petro's salary were guessing in the 8s up to mid-9 while the quotes about Josi had him in squarely in the 9s. Lebrun then stated in the conclusion, "It is interesting that in almost every instance both the agents and team execs gave Josi the nod over Pietrangelo as the guy they’d pay a bit more to." Lebrun seemed surprised by that and talked a bit about the rationale behind it.

I agree that this article should not be taken as "well Josi got 'X' so now Petro must get 'X - $500k.' But it is an interesting insight that Josi seemed to be more highly valued than Petro by people in the business of hockey.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’d personally be thrilled if we got him for 8-8.5 per to be honest

 

[Blueston]

Friedman with update on Petro negotiations: "One exec said word around the NHL is Blues GM Doug Armstrong and the captain’s representatives are circling each other like two elite cage fighters, waiting for their opponent to make the first move. Like with Josi, I find it very hard to see Pietrangelo in another uniform, but this is definitely a rougher path than expected."

 

[rumrokh]

It was before the Josi signing. The quotes specifically guessing Petro's salary were guessing in the 8s up to mid-9 while the quotes about Josi had him in squarely in the 9s. Lebrun then stated in the conclusion, "It is interesting that in almost every instance both the agents and team execs gave Josi the nod over Pietrangelo as the guy they’d pay a bit more to." Lebrun seemed surprised by that and talked a bit about the rationale behind it.

I agree that this article should not be taken as "well Josi got 'X' so now Petro must get 'X - $500k.' But it is an interesting insight that Josi seemed to be more highly valued than Petro by people in the business of hockey.

Is it possible it's less about value and more about expected payment based on point production? Like, "I would expect to pay in this climate," as opposed to, "this player should really be worth this."

I should note, the "expect to pay" perspective can be in the gray area between that and "should be worth." Because GMs realize you need certain qualities on a team and they know that, on average, you have to overpay to get some of them.

 

[Mike Liut]

Petro wants 9. Army wants 8. Meet at 8.5 and move on

 

[parliamentlite]

If the Josi signing at $9.059 million AAV teaches us anything, it's that Petro's dollar figure will certainly end in a 27.

 

[Celtic Note]

It wasn't LeBrun's opinion as much as it was that of agents and execs around the league. Nobody thought Petro would get as much as Josi. Partly bc we aren't as desperate as Preds and partly due to Josi's last contract and also due to perceived value of the 2. Petro might get more than that on open market but that doesn't mean he will here.

In all fairness, he sourced something like 4 people. I am not sure his sample size was all that great for generalizations. It was interesting however.

 

[Majorityof1]

In all fairness, he sourced something like 4 people. I am not sure his sample size was all that great for generalizations. It was interesting however.

He quoted 10 and according to the article talked to more than a dozen. No, its not exhaustive, but it is indicative. Not one of the ten quoted said Pietrangelo should earn more.

 

[Blueston]

He quoted 10 and according to the article talked to more than a dozen. No, its not exhaustive, but it is indicative. Not one of the ten quoted said Pietrangelo should earn more.

But what if that doesn't line up with what I think? Isn't my opinion more important than that of a dozen execs and agents who do this for a living?

 

[Brian39]

But what if that doesn't line up with what I think? Isn't my opinion more important than that of a dozen execs and agents who do this for a living?

Clearly the pecking order is as follows:

my opinion > your opinion > literally anyone else's opinion.

 

[MissouriMook]

I just caught the end of the conversation this morning on SiriusXM NHL Radio, but Brian Burke was on and it sounded like he was under the impression that term is just as likely to be the hold up as AAV. He didn't seem to think Army was inclined to go 8 years on a player that will be 38 when the contract ends. This is just one guy's opinion, but Burke has spent a lot of time as a coach and manager in this league and probably knows Army pretty well. At the end of the topic, Burke seemed to suggest that he could see Army letting Petro walk before giving him an 8 year deal, thus the contract extension for Faulk.

 

[Celtic Note]

Clearly the pecking order is as follows:

my opinion > your opinion > literally anyone else's opinion.

But what if that doesn't line up with what I think? Isn't my opinion more important than that of a dozen execs and agents who do this for a living?

And this is geared at who exactly?

 

[Blueston]

And this is geared at who exactly?

Everyone dismissing LeBrun's article out of hand because it doesn't match their opinions.

 

[Brian39]

And this is geared at who exactly?

People who can pick up on sarcasm.

 

[Stealth JD]

I just caught the end of the conversation this morning on SiriusXM NHL Radio, but Brian Burke was on and it sounded like he was under the impression that term is just as likely to be the hold up as AAV. He didn't seem to think Army was inclined to go 8 years on a player that will be 38 when the contract ends. This is just one guy's opinion, but Burke has spent a lot of time as a coach and manager in this league and probably knows Army pretty well. At the end of the topic, Burke seemed to suggest that he could see Army letting Petro walk before giving him an 8 year deal, thus the contract extension for Faulk.

So the solution to signing Pietrangelo until age 38 is to sign Justin Faulk through age 35? That’s bold. I’d take the majority the elite defensemen of the modern era in their ages 35-38 seasons. Typically injury is the only real concern for the truly elite defenders, of which I’d consider Pietrangelo, and LTIR and insurance mitigate those concerns. Talk of letting him walk is merely part of the song-and-dance playing out between management and the agent. Though I think an 8 x ~ $8.7M deal would already be done if Petro’s camp would accept such a deal.

 

[Blueston]

So the solution to signing Pietrangelo until age 38 is to sign Justin Faulk through age 35? That’s bold. I’d take the majority the elite defensemen of the modern era in their ages 35-38 seasons. Typically injury is the only real concern for the truly elite defenders, of which I’d consider Pietrangelo, and LTIR and insurance mitigate those concerns. Talk of letting him walk is merely part of the song-and-dance playing out between management and the agent. Though I think an 8 x ~ $8.7M deal would already be done if Petro’s camp would accept such a deal.

Burke doesn’t know what he is talking about.

 

[Celtic Note]

So the solution to signing Pietrangelo until age 38 is to sign Justin Faulk through age 35? That’s bold. I’d take the majority the elite defensemen of the modern era in their ages 35-38 seasons. Typically injury is the only real concern for the truly elite defenders, of which I’d consider Pietrangelo, and LTIR and insurance mitigate those concerns. Talk of letting him walk is merely part of the song-and-dance playing out between management and the agent. Though I think an 8 x ~ $8.7M deal would already be done if Petro’s camp would accept such a deal.

If Faulk was insurance, we bought a bad policy.

 

[DatDude44]

I predict 6-8 years at 9-9.5 AAV.

 

[Bankerguy]

I cant imagine Pietro in any other jersey than the blues.... i hope he resigns with you guys.

otherwise, pls sign in Van haha
my second favorite option

 

[Walter Tkasobchuk]

In all likelihood, Pietro stays. 70 million. Neither side wants to see him in a different jersey. And if Blues are willing to continuously pay to salary cap, they will be successful... barring multiple injuries.

Ages 35-38 won’t be as declined on AP as it was on others. He’s as smart as they come with and without the puck. Of course, his play will diminish, but he’ll never plummet off the mountain unless he tries to play til 45.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

Petro wants 9. Army wants 8. Meet at 8.5 and move on

Meet at 9 if we have to. That's still a solid price.

Pay him now!

 

[Dbrownss]

If Faulk was insurance, we bought a bad policy.

Yep, I'm still sitting back and waiting, but early results are not good.