Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[Ranksu]

Faulk and Dunn both need to play with guys that can hold down the fort defensively. Pairing them together would be anxiety inducing to watch.

So it leaves out these should be pairs if we compare previous seasons TOI's.

Scandella - Parayko
Gunnar - Faulk
Dunn - Bortuzzo

 

[SIU LAW]

I am too lazy to look this up, so perhaps someone else remembers.

Isn’t there an excess limit a team can be above the cap before a season starts? Only a certain percentage a team can be over prior to a future season?

If the Blues were theoretically ready to sign Petro TODAY to a cap hit of 9 million per yer, could they even ink that contract before shedding salary in the (real) offseason?

 

[Brian39]

I am too lazy to look this up, so perhaps someone else remembers.

Isn’t there an excess limit a team can be above the cap before a season starts? Only a certain percentage a team can be over prior to a future season?

If the Blues were theoretically ready to sign Petro TODAY to a cap hit of 9 million per yer, could they even ink that contract before shedding salary in the (real) offseason?

The short version is that you can exceed next year's cap by 10%. If next year's cap is the same as this year's, that would mean you can hit $89.65M. Petro's deal would have to be about $10.2M AAV to exceed that, which is obviously not going to happen.

 

[SIU LAW]

The short version is that you can exceed next year's cap by 10%. If next year's cap is the same as this year's, that would mean you can hit $89.65M. Petro's deal would have to be about $10.2M AAV to exceed that, which is obviously not going to happen.

As close as the numbers are to the overage limit (Petro’s contract is not in a vacuum), and the potential that Petro’s reps were demanding 10+ and without the Blues knowing if they would have to make trades during the current, I wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t one of the issues that forced the Blues and Petro to (apparently) kick this can to the offseason. This would explain some of the nonchalant outward appearance from both sides (combined with wanting to see where the cap would go).

 

[simon IC]

So it leaves out these should be pairs if we compare previous seasons TOI's.

Scandella - Parayko
Gunnar - Faulk
Dunn - Bortuzzo

Those pairings make the most sense. Mikkola as 7nth D/1st callup

 

[Brian39]

As close as the numbers are to the overage limit (Petro’s contract is not in a vacuum), and the potential that Petro’s reps were demanding 10+ and without the Blues knowing if they would have to make trades during the current, I wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t one of the issues that forced the Blues and Petro to (apparently) kick this can to the offseason. This would explain some of the nonchalant outward appearance from both sides (combined with wanting to see where the cap would go).

I don't think that had much to do with the decision to kick the can. We are only so close after giving $3.25M to Scandella, $1.5M to Blais and $900k to MacMac. If a deal with Petro could have been reached prior to all this uncertainty, those are the guys who would have had to wait on a new deal. You don't risk your captain going to UFA just so you have the flexibility to sign those guys. If a deal with Petro could have been done, it would have been signed and MacMac/Blais would have had to wait to get their deals done.

 

[Brockon]

I don't think that had much to do with the decision to kick the can. We are only so close after giving $3.25M to Scandella, $1.5M to Blais and $900k to MacMac. If a deal with Petro could have been reached prior to all this uncertainty, those are the guys who would have had to wait on a new deal. You don't risk your captain going to UFA just so you have the flexibility to sign those guys. If a deal with Petro could have been done, it would have been signed and MacMac/Blais would have had to wait to get their deals done.

The only difference is that the depth signings are all affordable with Petro walking.

If Petro were signed, it puts us over the cap limit. Which while permissible during the off-season, puts a massive sign out saying DA must shed X million in cap before September XX when the final rosters must be submitted. It paints him into a corner for trade negotiations.

As of right now there are rumours of Petro's camp ask, but we aren't OBLIGATED to pay anything to move salary, we can let Petro walk and be cap compliant, making the team worse in the short term.

If we sign Petro to an extension (and Dunn), it tells other teams, St Louis must clear 6.4 million in cap (arbitrary number). Ergo, move BOTH Bozak AND Allen with at most 500k in salary retention TOTAL or face penalties for non cap compliance. (Again, arbitrary numbers - but illustrating need for replacement players salary and a cap cushion for call ups etc).

Sure, playing without a full roster buys a little wiggle room temporarily (at heightened injury risk) - but right now it's unclear how much salary needs to be moved out to resign Petro, so there are more potential suitors. New Jersey was the only team willing to take Subban's full contract without retention - I'd rather not advertise that fact if I was DA and knew there were 2 potential suitors, if they're under the impression that there are 5 candidates either we get more for our players or it costs less to pay to move them if it's perceived to be a competitive market.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Many teams are going to be unprepared for the unpredictable change in next season’s cap outlook. The Blues situation with Pietro really doesn’t look too bad. We are talking about moving 2 players who are useful guys on expiring deals. Neither are dead weight. Teams that acquire them will play them and get good minutes. We’ll see if the Blues are forced to compensate the debatable degree to which Allen and Bozak are overpaid. But remember, team’s other option is filling those needs on the UFA market.

What will that market look like? It’s going to be fascinating to see how the deals reflect the weirdness of this season. Maybe we’ll see more short term lower salary deals from guys who expect to make a big long term deal in a year or two. That’s a gamble on health though. Some interesting decisions all around.

I like the Blues’ position. If Pietro walked, the team has an obvious back-up plan to maintain contender status. If he stays, they don’t have to lose anything critical to make room.

 

[Brian39]

The only difference is that the depth signings are all affordable with Petro walking.

If Petro were signed, it puts us over the cap limit. Which while permissible during the off-season, puts a massive sign out saying DA must shed X million in cap before September XX when the final rosters must be submitted. It paints him into a corner for trade negotiations.

As of right now there are rumours of Petro's camp ask, but we aren't OBLIGATED to pay anything to move salary, we can let Petro walk and be cap compliant, making the team worse in the short term.

If we sign Petro to an extension (and Dunn), it tells other teams, St Louis must clear 6.4 million in cap (arbitrary number). Ergo, move BOTH Bozak AND Allen with at most 500k in salary retention TOTAL or face penalties for non cap compliance. (Again, arbitrary numbers - but illustrating need for replacement players salary and a cap cushion for call ups etc).

Sure, playing without a full roster buys a little wiggle room temporarily (at heightened injury risk) - but right now it's unclear how much salary needs to be moved out to resign Petro, so there are more potential suitors. New Jersey was the only team willing to take Subban's full contract without retention - I'd rather not advertise that fact if I was DA and knew there were 2 potential suitors, if they're under the impression that there are 5 candidates either we get more for our players or it costs less to pay to move them if it's perceived to be a competitive market.

I think the distinction between "we have to shed salary to re-sign our captain and franchise center" isn't functionally any different from "we have to shed salary because we re-signed our captain and franchise center" from a leverage standpoint. If we are trying to quickly shopping Allen/Bozak/Steen in the small window between the end of the season and Petro hitting the UFA market, every GM in the league knows damn well that it is because we have reached a number with Petro that both sides can agree on. There is no secret here where a number of suitors for those players don't realize that they are being shopped in order to fit Petro. We aren't moving any of Bozak/Steen/Allen unless we have an impending contract done with Petro. There is basically no chance that Army puts himself in a situation where he moves above-replacement-level players to free up cap space just to watch that cap space not get used.

I get what you are saying and agree that there is a small difference in leverage between the two scenarios. However, I think that difference is a matter of slight reduction in the value returned, not a difference in the number of suitors. A Petro deal is what triggers clearing out salary and the entire league knows that.

With all of that said, I'm not trying to say it is a sure thing we sign him. I'm honestly not all that optimistic about it, but I just don't think that any of these smaller deals tell us anything about the likelihood of an extension. I don't think that there is a contract in waiting. They might be closer in numbers to what some reports indicate, but it makes very, very little sense for either side to be willing to put a contract in a drawer over concerns about clearing out salary. From the Blues perspective, it makes no sense to reach agreeable terms but then let the player inch dangerously close to UFA and changing his mind or leveraging that risk for more money. From Petro's perspective, it makes no sense to play a season of hockey and risk an injury blowing up an extension and costing him tens of millions of dollars. The benefit of putting an agreement on hold instead of signing the deal is drastically outweighed by the risk/drawbacks for both parties. The much, much more likely explanation is that they didn't reach agreement and both parties felt that the risk/reward of pushing negotiations to after the season made more sense than agreeing to the other side's terms as presented at the start of the season.

For the last 6 months, my stance has been that the only way to fit Petro in without losing a core piece was to move 2 of Bozak/Steen/Allen. That hasn't changed with any of the contracts given out in the last couple weeks.

 

[Brian39]

Many teams are going to be unprepared for the unpredictable change in next season’s cap outlook. The Blues situation with Pietro really doesn’t look too bad. We are talking about moving 2 players who are useful guys on expiring deals. Neither are dead weight. Teams that acquire them will play them and get good minutes. We’ll see if the Blues are forced to compensate the debatable degree to which Allen and Bozak are overpaid. But remember, team’s other option is filling those needs on the UFA market.

What will that market look like? It’s going to be fascinating to see how the deals reflect the weirdness of this season. Maybe we’ll see more short term lower salary deals from guys who expect to make a big long term deal in a year or two. That’s a gamble on health though. Some interesting decisions all around.

I like the Blues’ position. If Pietro walked, the team has an obvious back-up plan to maintain contender status. If he stays, they don’t have to lose anything critical to make room.

I agree with everything except the obvious back up plan to maintain contender status. I think we have an obvious backup plan to maintain playoff team status and an above average blue line. I think that the back up plan we have in place is as good of a back up plan as you can have to allowing Petro to walk, but I don't think it is enough to maintain contender status. I don't think last year's team makes it out of the 2nd round if you swap that blue line for the back-up plan blue line we will see if Petro walks. But that is why my stance has been that the Blues absolutely shouldn't walk away from Petro if he can be extended for a contract that is similar to Josi's.

This offseason is going to be fascinating. At the moment, I'd say that the decision to push negotiations until the end of the year appears to have helped the Blues more than Petro's camp. One thing that we haven't discussed much is the financial health of the Blues organization compared to other teams. Every team is going to be hurting from the lost revenue, but few teams (if any) saw the influx of cash that the Blues did over the last 12 months. We should have the financial ability to still offer big money that some teams may no longer have.

 

[Ranksu]

 

[SIU LAW]

Chaser seems very confident on Petro staying:

https://post.futurimedia.com/chumam/playlist/87/listen-21220.html?cb=1587487694.315933

 

[Mike Liut]

Chaser seems very confident on Petro staying:

https://post.futurimedia.com/chumam/playlist/87/listen-21220.html?cb=1587487694.315933

With a flat cap, I’m getting less optimistic about being able to dump Bozak, Allen and Steen.

 

[bleedblue1223]

With a flat cap, I’m getting less optimistic about being able to dump Bozak, Allen and Steen.

Yeah, I don't see the ideal scenario where we only dump the expendable players. I think we have to wait and see if there are compliance buy-outs and then Dunn or Schwartz could be moved.

 

[Ranksu]

Yeah, I don't see the ideal scenario where we only dump the expendable players. I think we have to wait and see if there are compliance buy-outs and then Dunn or Schwartz could be moved.

That would vei sick to lose Dunn and Schwartz just to make room for Pietro.

That f***ing Faulk extension will be pain in the arse. 6.5mill.$ for 3rd pair dmen.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That would vei sick to lose Dunn and Schwartz just to make room for Pietro.

That f***ing Faulk extension will be pain in the arse. 6.5mill.$ for 3rd pair dmen.

I don't think we'd lose both, they would just have to be an option to move if we are unable to move the expendable pieces. And at the point you have to determine if it's worth it to keep Petro.

 

[Blueston]

I don't think we'd lose both, they would just have to be an option to move if we are unable to move the expendable pieces. And at the point you have to determine if it's worth it to keep Petro.

If we resign Petro, think dealing Schwartz is more likely than many would expect. He is going to need raise and extension soon and if we resign Petro there will be only so much to go around. How much do we want to pay him if Schenn is likely to be our top LW (sliding over as Thomas takes over 2C) and Sanford can handle 2nd line duties? And unlike dealing guys like Bozak or Steen, Schwartz could likely bring significant return.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If we resign Petro, think dealing Schwartz is more likely than many would expect. He is going to need raise and extension soon and if we resign Petro there will be only so much to go around. How much do we want to pay him if Schenn is likely to be our top LW (sliding over as Thomas takes over 2C) and Sanford can handle 2nd line duties? And unlike dealing guys like Bozak or Steen, Schwartz could likely bring significant return.

I could realistically see Schwartz getting a solid player now along with a 1st round pick or something like that. Replenishing the prospect pool will be important in getting cheap contracts to balance out the big contracts in the future.

 

[MissouriMook]

Yeah, I don't see the ideal scenario where we only dump the expendable players. I think we have to wait and see if there are compliance buy-outs and then Dunn or Schwartz could be moved.

That would vei sick to lose Dunn and Schwartz just to make room for Pietro.

That f***ing Faulk extension will be pain in the arse. 6.5mill.$ for 3rd pair dmen.

I keep seeing this idea floated around that somehow we might be forced to move Dunn as part of a process where we're clearing cap to keep Petro. This is just absurd. He made $775,000 last season. If you give him a raise to $1,000,000 that's still almost a 30% raise. Is he worth more? Absolutely - much, much more. Does he have any leverage to demand more? Absolutely not. Why then would you put Mikkola at $787,500 or Perunovich at $925,000 on the roster instead of Dunn to save cap space, when at most you're saving $212,500? Re-sign Dunn at $1,000,000 for next season with the promise of a long-term extension as soon as the CBA permits and get around any and all cap issues related to him for next season. I'd call it the "Labanc" deal but Labanc is still waiting on his next payday.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I keep seeing this idea floated around that somehow we might be forced to move Dunn as part of a process where we're clearing cap to keep Petro. This is just absurd. He made $775,000 last season. If you give him a raise to $1,000,000 that's still almost a 30% raise. Is he worth more? Absolutely - much, much more. Does he have any leverage to demand more? Absolutely not. Why then would you put Mikkola at $787,500 or Perunovich at $925,000 on the roster instead of Dunn to save cap space, when at most you're saving $212,500? Re-sign Dunn at $1,000,000 for next season with the promise of a long-term extension as soon as the CBA permits and get around any and all cap issues related to him for next season. I'd call it the "Labanc" deal but Labanc is still waiting on his next payday.

The idea that he has no leverage isn't true. He can still hold out and go to Europe if he wants, he can still get an offersheet, he just doesn't have arbitration rights. Dunn will get a pretty solid raise. His comps are in the $3-4.5M range.

Sure, he could pull a Labanc, but it's clear Labanc made a bad decision.

If Dunn decides to do a Labanc and banks on making a big contract once all our excess is cleared out, then that is best case scenario, I just don't think it's a likely scenario.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Elliotte Friedman was on Calgary sports radio yesterday,Talking NHL and one of the things was Pietrangelo. Blues are clear they want to re-sign Petro and offering similar to OEL $8.25M - $8.75M x 8 range. But not the $9M Petro's camp wants. I can't remember all of was said That was one part that i remember.

If we’re willing to go to 8.75 and he’s asking for Josi money, then good lord just get it done already.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If we’re willing to go to 8.75 and he’s asking for Josi money, then good lord just get it done already.

Gotta think it's either inevitable or maybe it's actually coming down to years. If we are offering 5-6 years and he wants a full 8. If we really are offering OEL money at this moment, then I'm not worried. It's not like it'll be a Pujols situation where the negotiating points are significantly apart and then all of a sudden an outside team goes to absurd levels.

 

[MissouriMook]

The idea that he has no leverage isn't true. He can still hold out and go to Europe if he wants, he can still get an offersheet, he just doesn't have arbitration rights. Dunn will get a pretty solid raise. His comps are in the $3-4.5M range.

Sure, he could pull a Labanc, but it's clear Labanc made a bad decision.

Offer sheets are unicorns. Ask Sobotka how playing overseas worked as a negotiating ploy.

If Dunn is making over $3M next season I think it is better than 50/50 it is in a different uniform because we traded him. If he's making more than $3M a year for the Blues, someone like Schwartz has been traded or we waved the white flag on Petro.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Offer sheets are unicorns. Ask Sobotka how playing overseas worked as a negotiating ploy.

If Dunn is making over $3M next season I think it is better than 50/50 it is in a different uniform because we traded him. If he's making more than $3M a year for the Blues, someone like Schwartz has been traded or we waved the white flag on Petro.

O'Reilly went to Europe and made a bunch of money on his deal because of it and Aho was just offer-sheeted. And Sobotka made plenty of money over there, I'm sure he doesn't regret it. It's the negotiation threat of having another place to play that gets them the deal they are worth. Doesn't matter if they follow through or not, they point is, they have other options.

Signing a Labanc deal is a unicorn too with that logic.

 

[Brian39]

With a flat cap, I’m getting less optimistic about being able to dump Bozak, Allen and Steen.

I don't think teams having $3M or so less space than they were expecting tanks the value of those guys. A cap reduction would, but most of the teams who would be in the market for Allen or Bozak were very likely not teams spending right at the cap anyway (near the cap yes, but not within a couple hundred grand). Less available cap reduces their value, but I don't think it is by that drastic a margin.

Here is the current cap situations for some teams assuming a flat cap:

Detroit: $34M to fill 12 roster spots
Buffalo: $33M to fill 13 roster spots
Florida: $20M to fill 10 roster spots and they are most in need of forwards/centers.
Montreal: $18M to fill 7 roster spots
Ottawa: $39M to fill 14 roster spots
Columbus: $10M to fill a couple roster spots (exact number is murky considering which injury fill ins they view as NHL players next year)
New Jersey: $25M to fill 13 roster spots
NY Islanders: $9M to fill 3 roster spots
NY Rangers: $13M to fill 7 roster spots
Philly: $11M to fill 8 roster spots (with no one but Nolan and Lindblom due real money)
Pittsburgh: $12 to fill 6 roster spots
Washington: $9.5M to fill 6 roster spots
Calgary: $16M to fill 9 roster spots
Edmonton: $10M to fill 7 roster spots with Athanasiu and their 2nd goalie being the only spots owed real money
Los Angeles: $20M to fill 7 roster spots
Vancouver: $17M to fill 8 roster spots

With a flat cap, that's half the league that could fit one of those contracts under the cap without much or any trouble (and I excluded the entirety of the Central division since we are unlikely to move them within division). There are a couple other teams I didn't include that have a good chunk of cap space, but their internal options will likely take it up. But if those teams viewed a guy like Bozak/Allen as better players than their internal options they might consider making a minor move or two to bring in an overpaid vet with Cup experience.

A flat cap really squeezes about a third of the league who was spending right to the cap and was banking on that few million extra dollars. But that isn't the majority of the league and those teams almost perfectly overlap with the teams who were never even remotely in the market for Allen/Bozak.

I just don't get this doom and gloom about moving Bozak and Allen. Their on-ice performance over the last 12+ months has been objectively good. Around the league they are universally considered good players. There are very few teams in the league who wouldn't want them on their roster if salaries weren't a consideration. When you consider contracts, neither of them are substantially overpaid and they just have 1 year remaining on their deals. We're not talking about teams taking on $3M of dead cap over the player's on-ice performance value and we're not asking teams to take on multiple years of overpayment.