Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[Brian39]

O'Reilly went to Europe and made a bunch of money on his deal because of it and Aho was just offer-sheeted. And Sobotka made plenty of money over there, I'm sure he doesn't regret it. It's the negotiation threat of having another place to play that gets them the deal they are worth. Doesn't matter if they follow through or not, they point is, they have other options.

Signing a Labanc deal is a unicorn too with that logic.

He got a $5M AAV from that negotiation and he played in Europe while the NHL was in a lockout. He terminated his KHL contract 12 days after the NHL announced the end of the lockout and didn't sign an NHL deal for another month after that. Moreover, the contract ROR got while he was holding out was a mid-season offer sheet. It had literally nothing to do with him playing in the KHL and his decision to play 12 games of European hockey (mostly while the NHL was on lockout) had nothing to do with the contract he got.

Sobotka had to play overseas for 3 seasons in order to get a raise from the Blues. Do you think Dunn is ready to commit 3+ years to the KHL instead of playing 1 more cheap NHL year to get arbitration rights? Sobotka is a shining example of how Dunn stands to lose money in the long run by going to the KHL.

Dunn has 4 more years before he is a UFA. If he goes to the KHL, he will not ever have arbitration eligibility before hitting UFA. So if he goes to the KHL instead of signing a cheap bridge deal, that means he either needs to play 4 years in the KHL or be willing to sign that cheap bridge deal when he comes back in 1, 2, or 3 years. That would be an atrocious career decision. He stands to make substantially more money by playing 1 cheap year in the NHL and then taking the Blues to the cleaners in arbitration (or signing a nice multi-year extension with that leverage). If I were Army and Dunn's agent tried to use a KHL offer as leverage, I would laugh my ass off and tell him to enjoy Russia and call me back if he decides that he wants to play in the NHL at any point in the next 4 years.

Aho got an offer sheet after scoring 83 points in a season as a 21 year old center. He is on a completely different tier of player than Dunn and he is the only player to sign an offer sheet in the last 7 seasons. That's a unicorn.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He got a $5M AAV from that negotiation and he played in Europe while the NHL was in a lockout. He terminated his KHL contract 12 days after the NHL announced the end of the lockout and didn't sign an NHL deal for another month after that. Moreover, the contract ROR got while he was holding out was a mid-season offer sheet. It had literally nothing to do with him playing in the KHL and his decision to play 12 games of European hockey (mostly while the NHL was on lockout) had nothing to do with the contract he got.

Sobotka had to play overseas for 3 seasons in order to get a raise from the Blues. Do you think Dunn is ready to commit 3+ years to the KHL instead of playing 1 more cheap NHL year to get arbitration rights? Sobotka is a shining example of how Dunn stands to lose money in the long run by going to the KHL.

Dunn has 4 more years before he is a UFA. If he goes to the KHL, he will not ever have arbitration eligibility before hitting UFA. So if he goes to the KHL instead of signing a cheap bridge deal, that means he either needs to play 4 years in the KHL or be willing to sign that cheap bridge deal when he comes back in 1, 2, or 3 years. That would be an atrocious career decision. He stands to make substantially more money by playing 1 cheap year in the NHL and then taking the Blues to the cleaners in arbitration (or signing a nice multi-year extension with that leverage). If I were Army and Dunn's agent tried to use a KHL offer as leverage, I would laugh my ass off and tell him to enjoy Russia and call me back if he decides that he wants to play in the NHL at any point in the next 4 years.

Aho got an offer sheet after scoring 83 points in a season as a 21 year old center. He is on a completely different tier of player than Dunn and he is the only player to sign an offer sheet in the last 7 seasons. That's a unicorn.

The point is, he has options, options means leverage in negotiations. The Blues have more, but they can't just force him to sign way under market value. If you call that a unicorn, than Labanc is a unicorn too.

 

[Stealth JD]

I absolutely think Dunn gets sent an offer-sheet if the Blues don't trade him before then. I'm sure he likes STL and wants to stay and get paid, but he's too talented a player not to get a cap-squeezing $4.2M/year x 3 years offer-sheet from someone. Why settle for $1M/yr while awaiting the Blues cap-situation to clear itself when careers are short and there's lifelong financial security being given by a Montreal or a Detroit? I think Petro gets signed first, then depending on which situation the team wants to go with Dunn that will decide if it's then worth trying to move Bozak, Steen, Gunny & Allen, who all on their own should have varying degrees of value to another organization. If Dunn wants to be a good soldier and settle for a small raise like Barbashev & Blais did, then it make Army's job a lot easier. But if Dunn wants the financial security immediately then he has to become a trade-chip before he's poached for a mere draft pick in the future. Or Army has to get busy and starts clearing veteran bodies in order to pay both of his studs; in which case Husso, Kostin and Kyrou will be thrust into action.

 

[Brian39]

The point is, he has options, options means leverage in negotiations. The Blues have more, but they can't just force him to sign way under market value. If you call that a unicorn, than Labanc is a unicorn too.

And again, what options? The option to make less money to play in a struggling league in Russia? Remember when Barby had the option to go play in the KHL and his agent publicly said he was considering it? The fact that he still wound up signing for less money than Sanford should indicate that Army wasn't too swayed when he was informed that Barby was considering his options.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And again, what options? The option to make less money to play in a struggling league in Russia? Remember when Barby had the option to go play in the KHL and his agent publicly said he was considering it? The fact that he still wound up signing for less money than Sanford should indicate that Army wasn't too swayed when he was informed that Barby was considering his options.

Barbashev only had 1 good season, he got about what he's worth, and it's more than Labanc. Dunn's comps are in the $3-4.5M. We can both agree that actually following through on his options is a unicorn and signing a Labanc deal is a unicorn. What we are left with is him signing a reasonable bridge deal in his comp range. At the very best, I see something in the 2's, but I think that would be unlikely.

 

[Brian39]

I absolutely think Dunn gets sent an offer-sheet if the Blues don't trade him before then. I'm sure he likes STL and wants to stay and get paid, but he's too talented a player not to get a cap-squeezing $4.2M/year x 3 years offer-sheet from someone. Why settle for $1M/yr while awaiting the Blues cap-situation to clear itself when careers are short and there's lifelong financial security being given by a Montreal or a Detroit? I think Petro gets signed first, then depending on which situation the team wants to go with Dunn that will decide if it's then worth trying to move Bozak, Steen, Gunny & Allen, who all on their own should have varying degrees of value to another organization. If Dunn wants to be a good soldier and settle for a small raise like Barbashev & Blais did, then it make Army's job a lot easier. But if Dunn wants the financial security immediately then he has to become a trade-chip before he's poached for a mere draft pick in the future. Or Army has to get busy and starts clearing veteran bodies in order to pay both of his studs; in which case Husso, Kostin and Kyrou will be thrust into action.

If I were Dunn I'd rather gamble on myself and try to cash in next summer than get locked into that number for 3 years in an unknown situation on a potentially bad-mediocre team. His role on the Blues next year will be at least what it was this year, with the potential to see an increase in usage if Petro walks. He has a chance to earn himself a 5+ year deal at an AAV higher than that $4.2M number. I don't see his ability to get that AAV decreasing over next year barring a catastrophic injury but he has a number of avenues to make his value skyrocket between now and then. Even assuming a GM offer sheets him at that number (which isn't a given when you look at how hesitant GMs are to offer sheet guys), I don't think it would be a good career move to sign it unless he is really risk averse.

A potential offer sheet is definitely his best point of leverage for negotiations, but I'm not sold it helps him a ton. I think his best avenue is to leverage that potential for the best 1 year deal he can get from the Blues and then bend the Blues over with arbitration leverage next summer.

 

[Brian39]

Barbashev only had 1 good season, he got about what he's worth, and it's more than Labanc. Dunn's comps are in the $3-4.5M. We can both agree that actually following through on his options is a unicorn and signing a Labanc deal is a unicorn. What we are left with is him signing a reasonable bridge deal in his comp range. At the very best, I see something in the 2's, but I think that would be unlikely.

You are the one who brought up the Lebanc deal in response to Mook talking about a deal for Dunn being less than $3M. I don't think anyone is saying that a 1 year, $1M deal is likely. The Blues will certainly play the "take our bridge offer or play on your QO" card, but I don't think anyone believes he will take the QO option.

Where are you getting that $3-4.5M range for his comps?

Pionk got $3M AAV on a 2 year deal. Carlo got $2.8M on a 2 year deal. Sanheim got $3.25M on a 2 year deal. I can't find any other similarly situated, early 20s D men who got 2 year deals in the last couple years. All of those guys play a noticeably larger role on their teams than Dunn plays on the Blues, averaging 3-5 minutes a night more than Dunn ever has during his time with the Blues. At 16:16 a night this year, Dunn has been squarely a 3rd pairing D man for the Blues while all 3 of those guys are squarely top 4 D men on their teams.

 

[MissouriMook]

O'Reilly went to Europe and made a bunch of money on his deal because of it and Aho was just offer-sheeted. And Sobotka made plenty of money over there, I'm sure he doesn't regret it. It's the negotiation threat of having another place to play that gets them the deal they are worth. Doesn't matter if they follow through or not, they point is, they have other options.

Signing a Labanc deal is a unicorn too with that logic.

ROR played 11 games in Europe the year of the last lockout and still ended up playing 29 games for Colorado that year. These European adventures generally only work out well for European players. North American born players that play overseas rarely return to the NHL with any significant earning capacity.

Aho was the third offer sheet (unless I'm missing someone other than ROR and Penner) in the salary cap era. You can continue to build your "case" on these rare exceptions, just know that the overwhelming majority of these cases (for NA born players) play out with the player signing a team friendly deal when the deck is stacked against them.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You are the one who brought up the Lebanc deal in response to Mook talking about a deal for Dunn being less than $3M. I don't think anyone is saying that a 1 year, $1M deal is likely. The Blues will certainly play the "take our bridge offer or play on your QO" card, but I don't think anyone believes he will take the QO option.

Where are you getting that $3-4.5M range for his comps?

Pionk got $3M AAV on a 2 year deal. Carlo got $2.8M on a 2 year deal. Sanheim got $3.25M on a 2 year deal. I can't find any other similarly situated, early 20s D men who got 2 year deals in the last couple years. All of those guys play a noticeably larger role on their teams than Dunn plays on the Blues, averaging 3-5 minutes a night more than Dunn ever has during his time with the Blues. At 16:16 a night this year, Dunn has been squarely a 3rd pairing D man for the Blues while all 3 of those guys are squarely top 4 D men on their teams.

Ah, sorry got you 2 mixed up, my bad. Mook brought Labanc up before me, I didn't bring him up.

Add Rasmus Andersson to the group. Dunn has played in the top 4 enough that his agent will use that as a point. His production has been very good, so that is an argument too. I don't think that he's on a better team should be held against him with opportunities not being available.

I think he'll end up with a 2 year deal around 3ish. It would be awesome if Army can do better, but I'll stick with a conservative projection.

 

[Brian39]

Ah, sorry got you 2 mixed up, my bad. Mook brought Labanc up before me, I didn't bring him up.

Add Rasmus Andersson to the group. Dunn has played in the top 4 enough that his agent will use that as a point. His production has been very good, so that is an argument too. I don't think that he's on a better team should be held against him with opportunities not being available.

I think he'll end up with a 2 year deal around 3ish. It would be awesome if Army can do better, but I'll stick with a conservative projection.

Andersson signed a 6 year deal, not a bridge deal. That's a completely meaningless comp for a 2 year bridge deal.

His agent can try to use his stints in the top 4 as a point, but it isn't one that is based in reality. He has never finished higher than 5th in TOI per game among Blues D men during his time with the Blues. He is 6th this year (5th if you count J-Bo/Scandella as one guy since they never overlapped and played the same role) and plays at least 4 fewer minutes a night than each of the top 4 D men. He was 1:51 a night behind Eddy last year (who was 4th in TOI per game). He only topped the 19 minute mark 8 times this year. Gunnar hit 19 minutes 3 times this year in half as many games. Dunn has played fewer total minutes on the PK than 8 other Blues D men this year, including a rookie who played 5 NHL games. Scandella has been here 11 games and has played 6 times more PK minutes than Dunn for the Blues this year. Dunn's usage is more than simply the fact that he plays on a good team. In the last 3 years, 6 different D men have won top 4 jobs over Dunn, including Eddy and Scandella. Eddy saw his icetime go down a minute a night going from St. Louis to Carolina, so it is tough to say that he was simply too good for anyone to jump in ice time.

Moreover, Dunn's 16:16 a night this year is on the extreme low end of what your normal 5th D man averages around the league. There are only 3 NHL teams who play their 5th D men less per night than the Blues play Dunn. And I excluded guys with fewer than 30 games played to make sure I wasn't counting guys who briefly filled in as an injury sub. Andersson who you mentioned above plays 19:56 a night as the Flames' 5th D man.

Dunn receives heavily sheltered minutes and usage. He is squarely used as a 3rd pairing offensive specialist and is not the all-situations D man that his $2.8-$3.25M comparables are. He has excelled in that role and I believe that if he were given an expanded defensive role he would excel in that role as well. But he is going to have a really, really hard time selling that potential as a reason to get comparable money. I think your $3M AAV on a 2 year deal is his absolute best case scenario given his comps, not the low end of what he could get. The only way he has a chance of earning more than that is by signing an offer sheet.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Andersson signed a 6 year deal, not a bridge deal. That's a completely meaningless comp for a 2 year bridge deal.

His agent can try to use his stints in the top 4 as a point, but it isn't one that is based in reality. He has never finished higher than 5th in TOI per game among Blues D men during his time with the Blues. He is 6th this year (5th if you count J-Bo/Scandella as one guy since they never overlapped and played the same role) and plays at least 4 fewer minutes a night than each of the top 4 D men. He was 1:51 a night behind Eddy last year (who was 4th in TOI per game). He only topped the 19 minute mark 8 times this year. Gunnar hit 19 minutes 3 times this year in half as many games. Dunn has played fewer total minutes on the PK than 8 other Blues D men this year, including a rookie who played 5 NHL games. Scandella has been here 11 games and has played 6 times more PK minutes than Dunn for the Blues this year. Dunn's usage is more than simply the fact that he plays on a good team. In the last 3 years, 6 different D men have won top 4 jobs over Dunn, including Eddy and Scandella. Eddy saw his icetime go down a minute a night going from St. Louis to Carolina, so it is tough to say that he was simply too good for anyone to jump in ice time.

Moreover, Dunn's 16:16 a night this year is on the extreme low end of what your normal 5th D man averages around the league. There are only 3 NHL teams who play their 5th D men less per night than the Blues play Dunn. And I excluded guys with fewer than 30 games played to make sure I wasn't counting guys who briefly filled in as an injury sub. Andersson who you mentioned above plays 19:56 a night as the Flames' 5th D man.

Dunn receives heavily sheltered minutes and usage. He is squarely used as a 3rd pairing offensive specialist and is not the all-situations D man that his $2.8-$3.25M comparables are. He has excelled in that role and I believe that if he were given an expanded defensive role he would excel in that role as well. But he is going to have a really, really hard time selling that potential as a reason to get comparable money. I think your $3M AAV on a 2 year deal is his absolute best case scenario given his comps, not the low end of what he could get. The only way he has a chance of earning more than that is by signing an offer sheet.

Then the argument is he's like Will Butcher or Girard. Long-term is 4.5ish, and short-term is going to be 3ish. Find guys that are as productive as he is in his age group. Like Sergachev in Tampa in the seasons prior to this season, he isn't going to be punished because his team didn't need him in a bigger role, they'll get rewarded for the production they had on the ice. Dumba got an equivalent of 2.85 in today's cap with less production in a lesser role on his bridge deal, but he was a higher pick.

Like it or not, Dunn won't be cheap.

 

[Brian39]

Then the argument is he's like Will Butcher or Girard. Long-term is 4.5ish, and short-term is going to be 3ish. Find guys that are as productive as he is in his age group. Like Sergachev in Tampa in the seasons prior to this season, he isn't going to be punished because his team didn't need him in a bigger role, they'll get rewarded for the production they had on the ice. Dumba got an equivalent of 2.85 in today's cap with less production in a lesser role on his bridge deal, but he was a higher pick.

Like it or not, Dunn won't be cheap.

Will Butcher had 44 points when he was playing equivalent minutes. Dunn is on pace for 26 this year. Butcher also got bumped up to 19+ minutes a night the next season and demonstrated that he could be an adequate top 4 D man before he was offered his extension.

Girard got more time per game his rookie year than Dunn has gotten in any of his 3 seasons. He then excelled playing 19:54 a night in the season before he got his long term extension. He played 3 minutes a night more at even strength than Dunn does.

Like it or not, Dunn doesn't stack up to the guys you are listing as his comparables.

Dunn cost himself a good chunk of money this season. He saw a major decrease in his production. I would agree with you if he had replicated last season, but he fell way short. It is going to be very, very difficult for him to sell 'the potential to be a bigger producer in a bigger role' when his actual performance slipped this year.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Will Butcher had 44 points when he was playing equivalent minutes. Dunn is on pace for 26 this year. Butcher also got bumped up to 19+ minutes a night the next season and demonstrated that he could be an adequate top 4 D man before he was offered his extension.

Girard got more time per game his rookie year than Dunn has gotten in any of his 3 seasons. He then excelled playing 19:54 a night in the season before he got his long term extension. He played 3 minutes a night more at even strength than Dunn does.

Like it or not, Dunn doesn't stack up to the guys you are listing as his comparables.

Dunn cost himself a good chunk of money this season. He saw a major decrease in his production. I would agree with you if he had replicated last season, but he fell way short. It is going to be very, very difficult for him to sell 'the potential to be a bigger producer in a bigger role' when his actual performance slipped this year.

Goals went up, assists went down, points matched rookie year. That's pretty consistent. He didn't fall way short, scoring at a pace of double-digit goals in his role is rare. Comparables aren't meant to be 100%, it's about getting as close to the player as possible. You can use Dumba too if you want. Dunn was better in his time in a similar role, but Dumba had a bit better draft pedigree.

The idea that Dunn will be $1-1.5M is silly. There isn't any evidence or comps out there that make it realistic.

You are arguing that Dunn's comp is Grzelcyk after the 17/18 season.

 

[Blueston]

Goals went up, assists went down, points matched rookie year. That's pretty consistent. He didn't fall way short, scoring at a pace of double-digit goals in his role is rare. Comparables aren't meant to be 100%, it's about getting as close to the player as possible. You can use Dumba too if you want. Dunn was better in his time in a similar role, but Dumba had a bit better draft pedigree.

The idea that Dunn will be $1-1.5M is silly. There isn't any evidence or comps out there that make it realistic.

You are arguing that Dunn's comp is Grzelcyk after the 17/18 season.

Obviously it depends on term. I expect Army tells him to prove it before they pay him and offers 1-2 year deal in that range. That is club's MO.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Obviously it depends on term. I expect Army tells him to prove it before they pay him and offers 1-2 year deal in that range. That is club's MO.

Sure, I expect Dunn to get a bridge and something in the 2's is realistic, but 1-1.5 is just silly. No one in that range has come close to what Dunn has. If people want to argue roles and usage, then fine that's at least a valid discussion, but production has to be in the same ballpark. No defenseman signing for that type of money in a similar situation comes close to Dunn's production.

 

[Blueston]

Andersson signed a 6 year deal, not a bridge deal. That's a completely meaningless comp for a 2 year bridge deal.

His agent can try to use his stints in the top 4 as a point, but it isn't one that is based in reality. He has never finished higher than 5th in TOI per game among Blues D men during his time with the Blues. He is 6th this year (5th if you count J-Bo/Scandella as one guy since they never overlapped and played the same role) and plays at least 4 fewer minutes a night than each of the top 4 D men. He was 1:51 a night behind Eddy last year (who was 4th in TOI per game). He only topped the 19 minute mark 8 times this year. Gunnar hit 19 minutes 3 times this year in half as many games. Dunn has played fewer total minutes on the PK than 8 other Blues D men this year, including a rookie who played 5 NHL games. Scandella has been here 11 games and has played 6 times more PK minutes than Dunn for the Blues this year. Dunn's usage is more than simply the fact that he plays on a good team. In the last 3 years, 6 different D men have won top 4 jobs over Dunn, including Eddy and Scandella. Eddy saw his icetime go down a minute a night going from St. Louis to Carolina, so it is tough to say that he was simply too good for anyone to jump in ice time.

Moreover, Dunn's 16:16 a night this year is on the extreme low end of what your normal 5th D man averages around the league. There are only 3 NHL teams who play their 5th D men less per night than the Blues play Dunn. And I excluded guys with fewer than 30 games played to make sure I wasn't counting guys who briefly filled in as an injury sub. Andersson who you mentioned above plays 19:56 a night as the Flames' 5th D man.

Dunn receives heavily sheltered minutes and usage. He is squarely used as a 3rd pairing offensive specialist and is not the all-situations D man that his $2.8-$3.25M comparables are. He has excelled in that role and I believe that if he were given an expanded defensive role he would excel in that role as well. But he is going to have a really, really hard time selling that potential as a reason to get comparable money. I think your $3M AAV on a 2 year deal is his absolute best case scenario given his comps, not the low end of what he could get. The only way he has a chance of earning more than that is by signing an offer sheet.

And I would add that their were multiple opportunities for him to step into bigger role and he hasn't been able to do it. If they trusted him in that role they wouldn't have felt need to trade for and sign Scandella. I would be shocked if Blues paid him close to $3mm this summer. He may get it if they deal him or he may get it next year from Blues if he takes big step forward, but they ain't likely to pay him as top 4 D if they don't trust him to play like one.

 

[Brian39]

Goals went up, assists went down, points matched rookie year. That's pretty consistent. He didn't fall way short, scoring at a pace of double-digit goals in his role is rare. Comparables aren't meant to be 100%, it's about getting as close to the player as possible. You can use Dumba too if you want. Dunn was better in his time in a similar role, but Dumba had a bit better draft pedigree.

The idea that Dunn will be $1-1.5M is silly. There isn't any evidence or comps out there that make it realistic.

You are arguing that Dunn's comp is Grzelcyk after the 17/18 season.

So are you saying he is consistently a 25 point guy, like he was this year and his rookie year? Because he absolutely fell way short of his sophomore year. 35 points to 26 points is a large drop. If the argument is that Dunn is consistently a 25 point guy that the team views as a defensive liability, then there is no way he is remotely close to a $3M+ player.

I'm not arguing Grzelcyk as a comp. Grzelcyk was arbitration eligible in the summer of 2018 when he got his contract, which is why he would reasonably be expected to earn more money than a guy who isn't.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He's not in a bigger role because he's an offensive based defenseman. We use him like we used Shattenkirk. On the 3rd pair that plays up when we need offense. It's about balance on the pairs, not about him not being trusted. Parayko is the shutdown pair, and they want to get the other pairs balanced with Dunn and Petro separated. When we had injuries, Dunn played up and they didn't have an issue with it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

So are you saying he is consistently a 25 point guy, like he was this year and his rookie year? Because he absolutely fell way short of his sophomore year. 35 points to 26 points is a large drop. If the argument is that Dunn is consistently a 25 point guy that the team views as a defensive liability, then there is no way he is remotely close to a $3M+ player.

I'm not arguing Grzelcyk as a comp. Grzelcyk was arbitration eligible in the summer of 2018 when he got his contract, which is why he would reasonably be expected to earn more money than a guy who isn't.

Being on pace for double-digit goals when the forwards in front of you are not the top offensive guys is a good thing. I don't care about the assists, the goals are a bigger driver IMO, especially since he's been able to replicate double-digit goals. The team doesn't view him as a defensive liability. He's playing the Shattenkirk role during 5v5, that doesn't mean they view him as a liability.

 

[Blueston]

Sure, I expect Dunn to get a bridge and something in the 2's is realistic, but 1-1.5 is just silly. No one in that range has come close to what Dunn has. If people want to argue roles and usage, then fine that's at least a valid discussion, but production has to be in the same ballpark. No defenseman signing for that type of money in a similar situation comes close to Dunn's production.

I expect he won't get close to $2mm if he takes a 1 year deal. Both DeAngelo and Petterson got less than $1mm for this year coming off of their ELCs. Both had good years and Pittsburgh gave Petterson extension and DeAngelo is likely to get paid too.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I expect he won't get close to $2mm if he takes a 1 year deal. Both DeAngelo and Petterson got less than $1mm for this year coming off of their ELCs. Both had good years and Pittsburgh gave Petterson extension and DeAngelo is likely to get paid too.

Neither of them come close to Dunn's track record. Fair enough though on your opinion. I do appreciate listing who you believe his comps are.

 

[Blueston]

He's not in a bigger role because he's an offensive based defenseman. We use him like we used Shattenkirk. On the 3rd pair that plays up when we need offense. It's about balance on the pairs, not about him not being trusted. Parayko is the shutdown pair, and they want to get the other pairs balanced with Dunn and Petro separated. When we had injuries, Dunn played up and they didn't have an issue with it.

Notsomuch. Shattenkirk averaged over 21 minutes ice time during his tenure in St. Louis, never below 19:51 and twice over 22 minutes. Shatty was generally trusted in all situations and even killed penalties regularly. He was obviously more offensive-minded than Parayko and even Petro, so his zone usage was tilted, but he was never sheltered to the extent Dunn was. Dunn hasn't earned close to that level of trust.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Notsomuch. Shattenkirk averaged over 21 minutes ice time during his tenure in St. Louis, never below 19:51 and twice over 22 minutes. Shatty was generally trusted in all situations and even killed penalties regularly. He was obviously more offensive-minded than Parayko and even Petro, so his zone usage was tilted, but he was never sheltered to the extent Dunn was. Dunn hasn't earned close to that level of trust.

Shattenkirk got the bulk of the PP time. Once Parayko was here, Shattenkirk was 3rd pair that played up with Petro when we needed offense. Thought it was clear what I meant.

 

[Brockon]

The idea that he has no leverage isn't true. He can still hold out and go to Europe if he wants, he can still get an offersheet, he just doesn't have arbitration rights. Dunn will get a pretty solid raise. His comps are in the $3-4.5M range.

Sure, he could pull a Labanc, but it's clear Labanc made a bad decision.

If Dunn decides to do a Labanc and banks on making a big contract once all our excess is cleared out, then that is best case scenario, I just don't think it's a likely scenario.

His comps also all signed for 3+ years... Regardless if you're lumping in Girard (5AAV, 7 years), Pettersson (4.025 AAV, 5 years), Werenski (5AAV, 3 years) or Chabot (8AAV, 8 years). I mean, I'm not sure who you consider to be his comparables - because there aren't an abundance of offensive dmen who signed extensions recently...

Of the recent extensions, with the exception of Girard, all of them play either considerably more minutes (Werenski and Chabot) or play much heavier defensive minutes (Pettersson, Morrissey, Andersson, Sanheim, etc) with a more complete game.

I don't see Dunn having earned a 3-4.5 AAV deal, unless he's willing to sign for 5+ years. He's more likely getting 2-3 on a 2/3 year deal, giving him the sample size to prove he's worth it - I'd rather sign him long term, but I don't see that happening unless Petro walks.

 

[Blueston]

Neither of them come close to Dunn's track record. Fair enough though on your opinion. I do appreciate listing who you believe his comps are.

Petterson was coming off a 25 point season and DeAngelo 30. Both played more minutes per night with the extending club. And both were drafted higher than Dunn, fwiw. Honestly, I'd rather have either of them over Dunn.