Phoenix LXXI: Daydream Belever

kdb209 · Feb 1, 2013

Joyce Clark ‏@clarkjv
Coyotes fans. Do me a favor. If you expect Jamison to make a positive announcement, as I do - please RT two words: I BELEVE.

hkymnky · Feb 1, 2013

For over four years I've been lurking on these boards, content to watch the antics of Killion et al. from the shadows (and what deep dark shadows they are).

With the resolution of this saga appearing to be upon us (perhaps in weeks not months :sarcasm:

) I find myself compelled to speak.

Specifically, I want to weigh in on the Seattle vs. Quebec debate that has erupted on this board since it became apparent that the Coyotes have most likely reached the end or their long desert road. While I admit I haven't had a chance to read over the backlog of posts from the past 8 hours in detail (what with sleeping and all), the overall debate seems to boil down to "No, I am the prettiest girl at the dance!"

I realize I can get in really big trouble for trying to be sensible on the internet, but lets approach this pragmatically shall we?

Contrary to partisans on both sides of the debate, I believe both markets are strong...or at the very least represent a substantial improvement over Phoenix (granted we are talking about a very low bar). Both cities have new facilities planned and both have a history of supporting hockey going back almost a century. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that both cities will have NHL teams by the end of this decade. But as far as the "Coyotes Sweepstake" is concerned all signs seem to point to one location...Seattle.

Even as I type this I can feel the hackles rising on my Quebecois cousins. Allow me to preempt your anger. Quebec City is an excellent market. You have the better temporary facility, you have an ownership group that is ready and waiting, and you have a new arena that is already under construction. Unlike Seattle you also have a history with the NHL and a demonstrated record of support and no one (with the exception of howlinghockey...who seems to be fond of "wall candy") doubts the ability for a returned Nordiques to have success equal to that of Jets 2.0.

But in spite of all these things I still consider Seattle the front runner. It ultimately boils down to two things: money and vanity. While the "national" in the NHL originally referred to the nation of Canada, the present day NHL is an American league with a large Canadian presence. To reinforce this point we need only look at where the league has chosen to hang its proverbial hat (I'll give you a hint...its not Toronto). By being based in NYC (in midtown Manhattan no less) the NHL places itself (geographically if not financially) in the same echelon as the NFL, NBA, and MLB. This is key to understanding all other actions on the part of the league.

Simply put, the NHL is the awkward kid desperately seeking the acceptance of the popular crowd. You need only look at the lucrative sponsorships and TV contracts held by the NFL to see what the NHL is aspiring to. Who wouldn't want to be a secular religion with a license to print money? Sure the NHL is arguably the NFL of Canada (i.e. the league playing the most popular sport in the land at its highest level), but as far as American media, corporations, and consumers are concerned the NHL is the smallest of the "big four" and marginally higher profile than soccer. While I'm sure the NHL values its Canadian sponsorships and TV contracts they pale in comparison to money changing hands amongst their "peers". After all, would you rather have 80% of $100 or 25% of $1000?

Some years ago there was a great article that talked about how the NHL is the RC Cola of professional sports. I think its just as true now as it was then. Ultimately the NHL is the smallest player in a highly competitive market selling a product that, while immensely popular in some circles, is ultimately an after thought to most consumers. The problem the NHL is facing is that rather than accepting its status and building off of that identify, the league has instead spent the past 20+ years trying to be the next the NFL.

Which brings us to Seattle. Consider for a moment the situation. You are GB. You are small. You are funny looking. You are the head of a league that could be seen as equally small and funny looking. In the last two years you have had a labor dispute, lost half a season, and seen a team move from a major American media hub to a midwestern Canadian city with a fraction of the (American) corporate and media exposure. Its the pro sports equivalent of having to move back in with your parents. Now imagine having to do it again. Giving up on yet another high profile market (even if the team in question doesn't have a particularly high profile in that market) and returning to another "fringe" market. Sure its a great arrangement, and it makes a lot of financial senseâ€¦but its not going to impress anyone (and it certainly won't get you in bed with that hot national TV contract).

So Seattle allows the NHL to get out of an ugly situation while still saving some face in the eyes of the broader corporate/sports community. True, its not as solid a market as Quebec City, it lacks an established ownership group and the new arena is still in the planning stages, but the market has supported hockey for close to a century (which is more than can be said for Phoenix) and its home to some very high profile corporations (Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks, etc.). There's absolutely more uncertainty with Seattle, and its entirely possible that the NHL will have no choice but to go with Quebec City, but if we could shoot up GB with a few mg of phenobarbotal I suspect he'd admit to Seattle being the NHL's first choice.

Puckschmuck* · Feb 1, 2013

XX said:
It would be worth it to not have their hand forced in the whole QC/Seattle/Toronto 2 situation. Even if it only staves off the inevitable for a few years.

The inevitable has already been staved off for a few years. Been there, done that. Time to let this dog die already. Anymore prolonging of this situation will only result in torture for what's left of the Yote fanbase.

cbcwpg · Feb 1, 2013

http://www.foxsportsarizona.com/02/0...61&feedID=3702

** NOTE: the link was working at one time , might be again ??

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Calgary Oil money is gutsy enough to kick the tires on this team.. So what?

Nothing has changed. The price is still the price and the team is not financially viable without a massive subsidy. Sorry, one things has changed...the fact that any deal with the city is going to be worse than the one Jamison had, at least for the owner of the team. The deal will be better for the city, sure. And under those conditions, who would buy the team?

The ONLY reason to buy the Coyotes is if you can manage somehow to work out a deal that makes the franchise portable, so after say 5 years you can sell it to whomever you want or move it where ever you want. But then again, why wouldn’t the NHL just do that as they control the team? They can sell it themselves and make a profit by letting it move.

If it stays in Glendale, without a massive subsidy, you had better like losing money. IEH said it yesterday.... after looking at this team for years it makes no sense for anyone to buy it without the deal Jamison had.

CasualFan · Feb 1, 2013

Is Calgary near the Balkan States?

Major4Boarding · Feb 1, 2013

NoDakJetsFan said:
Calgary oil money riding to the rescue? Why doesn't he just tell us that an unnamed "Florida Retirement Community" is expressing interest in purchasing the Chiefs... err, Coyotes?

That interest has been fulfilled. See Tampa Bay Lightning

hkymnky · Feb 1, 2013

Damn.

Just spend the last couple hours working on a short novella only to post it at the tail end of the last thread. What are the rules/etiquette for reposting?

kdb209 · Feb 1, 2013

CasualFan said:
Is Calgary near the Balkan States?

http://www.banffbalkan.ca/

madhi19 · Feb 1, 2013

bruinsfan46 said:
If Gallacher wanted to own the team and keep them in Phoenix he literally had years before this to do it. Why would anybody just be showing interest now?

You really have to wonder why a Calgary billionaire would want to own that dead dog? You think he aim for the Flames or even the Oilers first. Maybe it just how you now get in the NHL future owners country club. First you got to give Garry a solid. "Play along with this charade for two or three months and when the time come for you to get in the country club it going to be smooth sailing." Then you likely have to deposit a few million in Garry Swiss account and if you're a real good boy and keep your mouth shut about all that cloak and dagger we let you buy in.

kdb209 · Feb 1, 2013

hkymnky said:
Damn.

Just spend the last couple hours working on a short novella only to post it at the tail end of the last thread. What are the rules/etiquette for reposting?

Look up.

cbcwpg · Feb 1, 2013

http://arizonasports.com/43/1606845...-Im-confident-Coyotes-will-stay-in-the-Valley

The mayor has assured NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman that he wants the Coyotes to stay but not on the city's dime.

"Not on our taxpayers back and not at the risk of losing public safety," said Weiers. "When someone calls 911 they don't want a Zamboni to show up. They want a fire truck or a police car to show up."

:laugh:

GF · Feb 1, 2013

XX said:
It would be worth it to not have their hand forced in the whole QC/Seattle/Toronto 2 situation. Even if it only staves off the inevitable for a few years.

Granted. At this point, they may prefer saving face over making a (million) buck.

However, mystery buyer #9 will likely lose 25m$ a year (if we take the nhl numbers). So in 5 years he's 125m$ under. He will need to sell the franchise for 300m$ just to cover his expenses 175m$ franchise+125m$ losses.

Then you ask yourself, how much profit should an 5 year investment on 300m$ be? At 5% it would mean you'd need to sell it for close to 400m$ to be in the ball park of a 5% investment.

Even if he could sell in 5 years, he'll likely lose millions. Not gonna happen.

XX · Feb 1, 2013

cbcwpg said:

GLENDALE -- Glendale Mayor Jerry Weiers said Friday that two groups have contacted him about possibly buying the Phoenix Coyotes after potential buyer Greg Jamison failed to meet the January 31 deadline. Weiers will not release the names of the groups and said no offers were made, but that he received credible expressions of interest.

"We have a great opportunity right now that we may end up with a better situation for our city taxpayers and keep the Coyotes here," Weiers said. "That would be the ideal situation for everybody."

Pretty bold statement, given the history of this.

GF said:
However, mystery buyer #9 will likely lose 25m$ a year (if we take the nhl numbers). So in 5 years he's 125m$ under. He will need to sell the franchise for 300m$ just to cover his expenses 175m$ franchise+125m$ losses.

Events are not being scheduled at Jobing.com with any sort of effort. A nice AMF and more events would prevent catastrophic losses like 20+ a year.

rt · Feb 1, 2013

Why does megabucks from western Canada want to buy the Coyotes NOW? Why now?

powerstuck · Feb 1, 2013

So talking about this Calgary native billionaire.

How one can explain that he did not wanted a $308M gift ?

I know this saga has been shady at moments, but the last few hours developments give a whole new sense to shady.

XX said:
Events are not being scheduled at Jobing.com with any sort of effort. A nice AMF and more events would prevent catastrophic losses like 20+ a year.

The first part is true. But for the 2nd part, you will agree that the AMF cannot be nicest than the one that was still valid 24 hours ago. So like RT said, why now and not one day earlier ?

dronald · Feb 1, 2013

hkymnky said:
So Seattle allows the NHL to get out of an ugly situation while still saving some face in the eyes of the broader corporate/sports community. True, its not as solid a market as Quebec City, it lacks an established ownership group and the new arena is still in the planning stages, but the market has supported hockey for close to a century (which is more than can be said for Phoenix) and its home to some very high profile corporations (Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks, etc.). There's absolutely more uncertainty with Seattle, and its entirely possible that the NHL will have no choice but to go with Quebec City, but if we could shoot up GB with a few mg of phenobarbotal I suspect he'd admit to Seattle being the NHL's first choice.

TL;DR = Seattle gets it because it's not a Canadian market.

Thanks for being so original!

bruinsfan46 · Feb 1, 2013

rt said:
Why does megabucks from western Canada want to buy the Coyotes NOW? Why now?

To move the team to Portland where he owns the Winterhawks already? I haven't a clue why his name is just coming up now.

MaskedSonja · Feb 1, 2013

XX said:
Pretty bold statement, given the history of this.

Events are not being scheduled at Jobing.com with any sort of effort. A nice AMF and more events would prevent catastrophic losses like 20+ a year.

The question is, will they be as interested when they see the books and numbers and when they are essentially told "if you're expecting 300 million over 20 years that isn't happening".

My speculation is that if there are suitors, they might be thinking "well we might be able to sweettalk the mayor into a similar deal to the previous one"-and they're probably in for a bit of an awakening.

GF · Feb 1, 2013

rt said:
Why does megabucks from western Canada want to buy the Coyotes NOW? Why now?

Smoke and mirrors to last until the season ends. :naughty:

CasualFan · Feb 1, 2013

bobbop said:
COG has all kinds of skin in the game but most importantly they do not want the NFL hosting the Super Bowl next year in a vacated shopping and restaurant area that will almost certainly kill the chances of ever getting the big game or the national college football championship again.

Can I blow a few holes in your theory real quick?

- Super Bowl Host Committee bids are not predicated on the area immediate around the venue. The venue itself is of primary consideration (is it new? was it publicly funded with a SB as a carrot? etc) But the area immediately around the venue is inconsequential to the bid. They can test missiles on Westgate (which might not be a bad idea) and it has zero impact on attracting the game. Super Bowl hosting is based on cash and regional amenities. It is in no way localized in the manner you suggest. You'll note that many Glendale Super Bowl functions actually occurred in Scottsdale. Similarly, the Santa Clara Super Bowl bid features a majority of their host committee events at amenities in San Francisco.

- Fiesta Bowl/BCS Committees are a cash game. Maybe you can ask John Junker about how that works. I would think he has some time to answer questions. Anyway, just in case he's not available, I can summarize it for you: just like the Super Bowl, BCS hosting is a cash game; the status of the nearby shopping center is entirely irrelevant.

powerstuck · Feb 1, 2013

bruinsfan46 said:
To move the team to Portland where he owns the Winterhawks already? I haven't a clue why his name is just coming up now.

So what you are saying is Seattle could get backstabbed ?

XX · Feb 1, 2013

Tinalera said:
My speculation is that if there are suitors, they might be thinking "well we might be able to sweettalk the mayor into a similar deal to the previous one"-and they're probably in for a bit of an awakening.

We don't know what kind of ideological stand Weiers is going to make yet. It could be that he goes full politician, slashes $50 million and calls it a win. Or he could go full Pejorative Slur, not give a dime and thus seal the fate of the Coyotes. Too early to call. He seems awfully confident for a guy who just potentially passed a death sentence to a local sports team. Declarations that he is comfortable with a new bidder and thinks the team can stay are the last thing I'd expect out of him, but here we are.

madhi19 · Feb 1, 2013

I buy the Coyotes right now and keep them in Glendale for five years. If the NHL is willing to sell it at what it really worth. And we all know if the team stay in Glendale the Yotes are worth $1. Hell I even split whatever money we make out of relocation in 2018 with the league minus whatever loss we have to eat for five years off course. What do you say Garry? You been writing check your a$$ can't cash for four years either relocate the damn team, contract it or give it away for a buck!

Summer Rose · Feb 1, 2013

powerstuck said:
So talking about this Calgary native billionaire.

How one can explain that he did not wanted a $308M gift ?

I know this saga has been shady at moments, but the last few hours developments give a whole new sense to shady.

From what I've gathered over the last few days the main reason we have been told that the Jamison bid failed to meet the deadline was because one of his investors wanted a controlling stake and Jamison was unwilling to give that to him. The sweetheart lease deal was only for Jamison, so perhaps that mystery investor who wanted a controlling stake was Gallacher and now that the deadline has come and gone he's preparing his own bid for the team.

Or maybe Gallacher is another false prophet trying to retain interest in the team until the summer.

Or maybe when the Coyotes are finally offered to PKP he backs out at the 11th hour. That would be funny.

Hawker14 · Feb 1, 2013

Until it reads "local" buyer, I don't think anyone is believing this BS anymore (even the Coyote diehards if they're being honest with themselves).

But it's still fun to play along !

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