Phoenix CXXXVII - and the band plays on

[Bookie21]

Redirect Notice

According to Forbes, the debt on the team is $250 million. I know Forbes isn't a great source, but you show me something more credible and I'll listen. Barroway values the team at $500 million......Roll your eyes all you want, it doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks about that valuation because that's what Barroway wants for it. He's obviously fine with sitting on this asset as it may take a while to sell at that valuation. These things take years, it took Karmanos 7-8 years to find someone to purchase at his valuation of $420 million

 

[mesamonster]

Redirect Notice

According to Forbes, the debt on the team is $250 million. I know Forbes isn't a great source, but you show me something more credible and I'll listen. Barroway values the team at $500 million......Roll your eyes all you want, it doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks about that valuation because that's what Barroway wants for it. He's obviously fine with sitting on this asset as it may take a while to sell at that valuation. These things take years, it took Karmanos 7-8 years to find someone to purchase at his valuation of $420 million

No need to roll my eyes, of course AB believes his asset is worth $500MM, but it hardly matters what he thinks. The issue is simply, what someone else is willing to pay for it? GB and AB can point to LV and Seattle and attempt to link existing franchise values to those expansion prices. The league can price those franchises wherever they like, however, the market for existing franchises operates on a supply/demand market. I too have little confidence in the Forbes valuation model, but I do find it interesting that teams with far superior metrics to the Coyotes are somehow worth less than what AB believes his team is worth!

Regarding the team staying in Glendale and continuing in perpetuity to advance one year deals. AB has signaled he has had enough of this situation and thus his need for new capital. The question is, does he have the resources to continue in perpetuity? Judging from his comments, and what we know about his net worth previously it is easy to see he does not! The bigger question is how long is GB going to continue to pay the bills and still make good on his promises to his BOG? I think the answer to this question is going to come sooner than later, its time for the league and AB to come clean to the fans that this is no longer AB`s team!

 

[MNNumbers]

I've gone through this before:

Original purchase price by IA: 170
2013-14: IA admits to 35M in losses (15 is a buyout)
13-14 Interest (5%): 8M
Total investment after 2014: 210 (We will round down)
14-15: No buyout, but there must be bigger losses because the arena didn't do better, nor did attendance: 20M
14-15 Interest: 10.5M
Total investment after 2015: 240M (Rounding down)
15-16: Lost Arena subsidy. That's 4M more. Cap increases. Losses: 25M (estimate, of course)
15-16 Interest: 12M
Total investment after 2015: 275M (Rounding down)
16-17: Complete loss of Arena Management Rights (I'll call that a wash, though). Cap up. Losses: 28M
16-17: Vegas expanson Fee: Plus 17M
16-17 Interest: 13M
Total investment after 16-17: 300M (approx)
17-18: Cap increases: Losses: 28M (I'll use the same figure)
17-18 Interest: 15M
Total investment after 17-18: 340M or so
18-19: Losses in the neighborhood of 30M
18-19: Interest of about 17M
Total: About 390M. Call it 400M

Now, clearly, if the owners could handle the losses, then the interest doesn't apply. But, as far as we know, that is NOT the case.

The bottom line is the amount Barroway would need to sell for to break even.
Or, as some of us think it is: The amount the team would have to sell for for the BOG to break even.

What it's worth is
1) How much someone is willing to pay in the market. Which is likely not that high unless there are guarnatees from the NHL of no losses....or....
2) How much someone is willing to pay to relocate it.

Or....
How much the BOG is willing to continue to underwrite losses while awaiting a new arena. A new arena with subsidies changes the equation.

 

[TheLegend]

Gee Legend, that's pretty harsh! My sources are perhaps no different than your own, so why do my opinions not matter yet yours do?

I dunno Mesa.... I’ve never boasted about knowing someone directly connected to Jerry Reinsdorf (remember that one??) or being related to Dave Tippett’s wife as a justification for continuously lobbing character asassinations at all the parties involved just prove a point.

 

[TheLegend]

I've gone through this before:

Original purchase price by IA: 170
2013-14: IA admits to 35M in losses (15 is a buyout)
13-14 Interest (5%): 8M
Total investment after 2014: 210 (We will round down)
14-15: No buyout, but there must be bigger losses because the arena didn't do better, nor did attendance: 20M
14-15 Interest: 10.5M
Total investment after 2015: 240M (Rounding down)
15-16: Lost Arena subsidy. That's 4M more. Cap increases. Losses: 25M (estimate, of course)
15-16 Interest: 12M
Total investment after 2015: 275M (Rounding down)
16-17: Complete loss of Arena Management Rights (I'll call that a wash, though). Cap up. Losses: 28M
16-17: Vegas expanson Fee: Plus 17M
16-17 Interest: 13M
Total investment after 16-17: 300M (approx)
17-18: Cap increases: Losses: 28M (I'll use the same figure)
17-18 Interest: 15M
Total investment after 17-18: 340M or so
18-19: Losses in the neighborhood of 30M
18-19: Interest of about 17M
Total: About 390M. Call it 400M

Now, clearly, if the owners could handle the losses, then the interest doesn't apply. But, as far as we know, that is NOT the case.

The bottom line is the amount Barroway would need to sell for to break even.
Or, as some of us think it is: The amount the team would have to sell for for the BOG to break even.

What it's worth is
1) How much someone is willing to pay in the market. Which is likely not that high unless there are guarnatees from the NHL of no losses....or....
2) How much someone is willing to pay to relocate it.

Or....
How much the BOG is willing to continue to underwrite losses while awaiting a new arena. A new arena with subsidies changes the equation.

You’re right.... we’ve gone through all this before.

We may disagree on some concepts of public/private partnerships, but we’ve both been asking a lot of the same questions.

Wished we had some real answers so we could get out of this mobius loop.

 

[MNNumbers]

You’re right.... we’ve gone through all this before.

We may disagree on some concepts of public/private partnerships, but we’ve both been asking a lot of the same questions.

Wished we had some real answers so we could get out of this mobius loop.

Exactly, Legend.....

The whole situation is NOT normal in any sense.

In general:
Glendale didn't profit as much as they thought they would from the Coyotes but part of that has to do with the recession hitting at exactly the worst time. Whatever can be said about the COG/IA partnership, it doesn't exist any more. The Yotes pay rent, and receive game night revenues only. On that much, we all agree....

Also, in general:
No one has any idea what the arrangement truly was between IA and the NHL. We know there was a 5-year interest free loan involved (which 5 years is now past). We know that Barroway was brought in at least in part so that Arizona ownership could take advantage of the LOC that NHL has with Citibank, without incurring penalties in taxes which apply to Canadians. But, beyond that, we know very little.

For example: We don't know if there is 7-yr non relocation clause involved.
We don't know if the owners are on their own financially, or if the NHL is backing everything.
We don't know how tightly up against the wall Barroway finds himself.

And, in greater particular:
We don't know how much Quebec or Houston have offered for this franchise.
We don't know who, if anyone, the present ownership is negotiating with concerning a new arena.

The presence of the NHL being directly involved in the situation makes it impossible for us to analyze.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

You’re right.... we’ve gone through all this before.

We may disagree on some concepts of public/private partnerships, but we’ve both been asking a lot of the same questions.

Wished we had some real answers so we could get out of this mobius loop.

It's almost like restarting a coyotes thread was pointless

 

[aqib]

Are you suggesting that Barroway is no longer the real owner? My take away is this is further confirmation that the public pronouncements issued by the Barroway regime were nothing more than flowery gibberish. Not one of them had a word of detail, they were simply PSA`s all done with the intention of deception and obfuscation. Internally, they were asking themselves,"what do we say this time to keep the public and the fans in the dark?" Barroway has never been much involved in the public eye, rather he has sent out his surrogates to propagate more half facts and half truths. My question still remains, if this franchise is worth what some people think it is, why are there no suitors willing too assume the debt of an asset that is theoretically worth more?

Sorry I meant LeBlanc not Barroway. Yotes fans should be happy Cohen is there instead of LeBlanc.

 

[TheLegend]

Sorry I meant LeBlanc not Barroway. Yotes fans should be happy Cohen is there instead of LeBlanc.

Most are. There’s always going to be a few who won’t.

 

[rkhum]

What are the odds and timeline of a relocation to Houston?

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Long. Now approaching three months with no credible rumors of such.

 

[Edenjung]

Long. Now approaching three months with no credible rumors of such.

i will bet my ass (it's a nice one. And i mean really nice, some brasil ladies would say damn) that Ottawa moves, if the situation there goes on.

 

[gstommylee]

i will bet my ass (it's a nice one. And i mean really nice, some brasil ladies would say damn) that Ottawa moves, if the situation there goes on.

I doubt Ottawa moves at all especially not to houston.

 

[TheLegend]

Long. Now approaching three months with no credible rumors of such.

Correction..... approaching nine years and three months.

 

[Edenjung]

I doubt Ottawa moves at all especially not to houston.

[MOD]
Melnyk is an idiot that's running down the franchise in the city and makes a huge ruckuss about everything, while on the other side everything is silent on the coyotes side.
To me that sounds much better.

 

[sawchuk1971]

COYOTES EXPECTED SALE GAINING STEAM

Coyotes expected sale gaining steam — The Fourth Period

Arizona Coyotes owner Andrew Barroway remains in ongoing negotiations to sell a majority stake of the franchise and progress is slowly being made with one group, several league sources have told TFP.

Barroway has been in talks with multiple groups interested in purchasing the Coyotes, and while most with knowledge of the situation have categorized the process as a roller coaster ride, it appears they are gaining ground and heading down the right path.

TFP Editor-in-Chief David Pagnotta reported on Sunday “there doesn’t seem to be much significant traction” in terms of a sale, though did indicate multiple groups had been trying to purchase the club.

Pagnotta first reported on Nov. 6, 2018 that an ownership change was coming.

Some internal noise around the NHL on Monday suggested a deal could soon be on the horizon with that one group, though one league executive reiterated to TFP nothing is imminent. This league source did, however, confirm a deal will “come to fruition at some point before the start of next season,” if not sooner.

 

[Mightygoose]

Interesting on the above.

This same Fourth Period also mentioned in their article on December 22, 2018, that a there was hope a deal would come by the end of the regular season.

Coyotes sale inching closer, future uncertain — The Fourth Period

First business day after the regular season ends and on the heels of nothing imminent, now the deal will be done by the start of next season, much later than their initial timeline of end of 2018/early 2019.

Now talk of reopening talks with ASU according to today's article? Are they not building a new 5K seat arena due to open next year? What is there to offer?

Perhaps the talk of a new arena with a tribe or two as some claimed was in the works are perhaps....not so....so it's time to recycle some old plans too.

The only constant is the constant....

 

[Llama19]

First business day after the regular season ends and on the heels of nothing imminent, now the deal will be done by the start of next season, much later than their initial timeline of end of 2018/early 2019.

Now talk of reopening talks with ASU according to today's article? Are they not building a new 5K seat arena due to open next year? (*) What is there to offer?

The only constant is the constant....

(*) Plans approved for Wells Fargo Arena renovations, new ASU hockey home

To quote:

"Per the executive summary in late January, the 175,000 square-foot arena would seat 5,000 spectators for hockey, wrestling and gymnastics, and would include 250-to-300 club, and 48 loge seats.

The new arena is expected to be completed in time for the 2020-21 season. Wells Fargo Arena’s renovations should be completed by the summer of 2021."

Source: arizonasports.com/story/1408600/plans-approved-renovated-wells-fargo-arena-new-asu-hockey-home/

How many dents can this can have as it has been kicked down the road since 2009...

 

[TheLegend]

Interesting on the above.

This same Fourth Period also mentioned in their article on December 22, 2018, that a there was hope a deal would come by the end of the regular season.

Coyotes sale inching closer, future uncertain — The Fourth Period

First business day after the regular season ends and on the heels of nothing imminent, now the deal will be done by the start of next season, much later than their initial timeline of end of 2018/early 2019.

Now talk of reopening talks with ASU according to today's article? Are they not building a new 5K seat arena due to open next year? What is there to offer?

Perhaps the talk of a new arena with a tribe or two as some claimed was in the works are perhaps....not so....so it's time to recycle some old plans too.

The only constant is the constant....

It's the annual Coyotes speculation article that always hits right before the opening round of the playoffs. This looks like something the TFP staff cooked up based upon all the previous articles from Pagnotta.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

How many dents can this can have as it has been kicked down the road since 2009...

Fewer than the number of years people will continue to kvetch here about its existence, apparently...

 

[wpgallday1960]

(*) Plans approved for Wells Fargo Arena renovations, new ASU hockey home

To quote:

"Per the executive summary in late January, the 175,000 square-foot arena would seat 5,000 spectators for hockey, wrestling and gymnastics, and would include 250-to-300 club, and 48 loge seats.

The new arena is expected to be completed in time for the 2020-21 season. Wells Fargo Arena’s renovations should be completed by the summer of 2021."

Source: arizonasports.com/story/1408600/plans-approved-renovated-wells-fargo-arena-new-asu-hockey-home/

How many dents can this can have as it has been kicked down the road since 2009...

So why does the article speculate about reopening negotiations with ASU for an arena? Seems like the 5k hockey arena is a done deal or can that be changed this late in the process?

 

[sawchuk1971]

Interesting on the above.

This same Fourth Period also mentioned in their article on December 22, 2018, that a there was hope a deal would come by the end of the regular season.

Coyotes sale inching closer, future uncertain — The Fourth Period

First business day after the regular season ends and on the heels of nothing imminent, now the deal will be done by the start of next season, much later than their initial timeline of end of 2018/early 2019.

Now talk of reopening talks with ASU according to today's article? Are they not building a new 5K seat arena due to open next year? What is there to offer?

Perhaps the talk of a new arena with a tribe or two as some claimed was in the works are perhaps....not so....so it's time to recycle some old plans too.

The only constant is the constant....

another two weeks huh?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

another two weeks huh?

two weeks is so 2009.

2019 is all about two months

@TheLegend is right. we've read versions of this article for 10 years now.

yawn

"A sale is imminent, but we can't tell you to who"

should really raise everyone's eyebrows at this point.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

So why does the article speculate about reopening negotiations with ASU for an arena?

Because you never know what will stick to the wall once you've thrown it.

I guess I prefer this stuff to the relocation rumors... but not by much. Tired of speculation.

 

[TheLegend]

So why does the article speculate about reopening negotiations with ASU for an arena? Seems like the 5k hockey arena is a done deal or can that be changed this late in the process?

The original IA/ASU agreement called for two arenas connected to each other. The arena for the D1 team was well in the works and ASU had been looking at different alternatives to replace/renovate Wells Fargo Arena when ASU's AD came up with the suggestion to Anthony LeBlanc about "doing something more"

Doesn't take much to dust off old plans. I was on the campus about three weeks ago and there's all sorts of construction activity going around. Except at WFA. The Karsten Golf Course was permanently closed last month so that ASU's master plan for the area could begin it's work.

BUT...... if there's any truth to the Coyotes (or these investment groups) re-engaging in negotiations, there's going to be the same questions about how a resurrected joint venture would be funded.