nor do I see Barroway sticking around, this a flip-job, of that Im convinced.
First, I'd say it's better than even chance, definitely.
BUT I don't know where you get your certainty from. Nothing about any of this has been certain.
We know literally nothing about any single variable in the deal structure.
We don't know if or how much equity Barrow got as a result of failed cash calls.
We don't know the purchase price.
We don't know how much if any capital he threw in to get the other 46% (maybe less, see above) from IA.
We don't know how much of his original 54% was leveraged or how that has been or not been rolled.
We don't know how much is senior or junior debt.
We don't know what the schedule is.
We don't know what the rates are.
A leveraged buyout or restructuring incurring over 50% debt ratio isn't exactly uncommon nor is it the sole domain of corporate speculators. In fact, if I thought my partners were cratering our business, a leveraged buyout makes good sense.
Again, I still think it's more likely than not that they leave. I'm not convinced in anyway that he intends to sell, however, as opposed to starting anew with local partners in a new market, for example.
If he bought 30% and used an LOC to get to 54% originally, he's in okay shape (particularly if over the course of operations the IA pals accrued debt to him in the form of missed calls-- settled after the sale of course to further inflate the paper purchase price). He could put in a relatively small amount of additional capital and still be leveraged at or near only 50%. If you figure he ate 50 million in operational losses over the last two years, why not throw 50 million of capital toward the purchase and get from 30 to 50% equity in the franchise, and acquire a revolving line of credit to help with future operational losses and debt service (just a semi-random example of why an LBO including throwing more actual capital at the franchise might be part of a rational plan that doesn't include speculation or a "flip").
Hell, the franchise is probably due 30 million in appreciation just by removing the names LeBlanc and Drummond from the corporate structure. That's not even sarcasm.