Phoenix CXV: NHL Fantasy Ownership & GM Cruise

[CasualFan]

Actually many said it wasn't much different. But I won't quibble over details.

Yes, many butchered the analysis of a very simple funds flow model. My favorite was Morgan misrepresenting naming rights and rent revenues as additional expenses. I guess for some admitting that the IA lease was awful and AEG will easily out perform it financially is just more than they can take.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

this is an interesting point. presumably Chayka has considerably more data on the coyotes players, because he collected them. im not sure he would necessarily have those same data on players not on the coyotes, let alone minor leaguers. these data dont just appear on espn. it takes time and either direct in-person, or detailed video observation of actual on-ice behaviours to generate useful metrics.

i can see he would be well positioned to understand how best to use coyotes players - because he's been watching them for a while now. im not as confident he would be as well positioned to know which other players he may or may not want, or more importantly, be all that well informed to initiate trades and actually manage the franchise. overall, im not convinced his statistical or analytical expertise is really that much of an advantage in the GM position.

I think I'd have to disagree - when Chayka and his partner created Stathletes, he was offering his data analysis and metrics to the entire league. So it stands to reason that he's got a wealth of data on virtually everyone in the NHL and, possibly, in the developmental levels.

Chayka is not going to be wanting for information. What he lacks is experience, relationships, strategic and tactical skills in negotiation, and the respect of his new peers.

I keep hearing people throwing Theo Epstein around as a comparable, but it's apples to oranges if you ask me. Baseball is a statistical chess game and can be predicted far more readily by numbers and analytics than hockey. So a guy who creates a new system for analysis can use that as a basis for building a baseball team. The NHL is virtually the polar opposite - it's all on-ice chaos, puck bounces, big hits, and snarling "real man" ethos from the lowliest skate sharpener to the biggest power brokers.

So for me, it's clear that Chayka is the Wizard of Oz - there's someone behind the curtain pulling his levers, and it's Dave Tippett.

 

[Fugu]

Dean Lombardi and Stan Bowman and their rings would disagree.

I doubt they put all their stock in analytics. Having some high draft picks didn't hurt either, and Norris caliber defensemen. I don't think I would need analytics to decide to make Doughty or Keith my top defensemen.

 

[GuelphStormer]

I think I'd have to disagree - when Chayka and his partner created Stathletes, he was offering his data analysis and metrics to the entire league. So it stands to reason that he's got a wealth of data on virtually everyone in the NHL and, possibly, in the developmental levels.

Chayka is not going to be wanting for information. What he lacks is experience, relationships, strategic and tactical skills in negotiation, and the respect of his new peers.

I keep hearing people throwing Theo Epstein around as a comparable, but it's apples to oranges if you ask me. Baseball is a statistical chess game and can be predicted far more readily by numbers and analytics than hockey. So a guy who creates a new system for analysis can use that as a basis for building a baseball team. The NHL is virtually the polar opposite - it's all on-ice chaos, puck bounces, big hits, and snarling "real man" ethos from the lowliest skate sharpener to the biggest power brokers.

So for me, it's clear that Chayka is the Wizard of Oz - there's someone behind the curtain pulling his levers, and it's Dave Tippett.

He was actually offering his services, not the data he generates. I have no idea what he is actually measuring, but based on my own experience in measuring and analyzing behaviour, I would just assume the depth of measurement is much greater for coyotes players than all others because he's actually been doing it there, as opposed to simply offering to do it elsewhere.

If his approach has any value it is the precision and nuance of the measurement itself - the "intensive video analysis process", not the subsequent analysis based on those observations. I would bet dollars to donuts that he has not undertaken the laborious process of analyzing video of every other player in the league. The time and cost to do that properly would be enormous and it's impossible to think that IA made that sort of investment.

In some ways, he's simply quantifying and measuring what any other decent NHL-calibre GM or coach would be already be doing by instinct and experience. He's just being more deliberate and precise in his observation process which would allow for more reliable testing and conclusions.

 

[Killion]

These are staggering...

Over the life of the arena, there have been 133 non-hockey events held at the arena, with a majority of them, 67, presented during the previous four years that AEG was assisting booking events (2006-2009).

Over the time that the NHL or IceArizona was managing the arena, (2013-16), there have been 34 events that cost the city more than $80 million dollars in management fees.

Truly is... beyond staggering taken in totality. "Over the life of the arena, there have been 133 non-hockey events". Since 2004..... The Pacific Coliseum in Vancouver which opened in 1967 and is now nearly 50yrs old, one time home of the Canucks averages 150 non-hockey event bookings per year and its owned & managed by the City. One hundred & fifty. Just this week it was formally announced the WHL Giants are moving out (smaller facility in Langley) and the people running the building not unhappy to see them go as they brought in very little while blocking out the calendar from September/October through April/May.

Source: http://www.glendalestar.com/news/article_a56ff9a0-10b7-11e6-9225-ef4da6b407bf.html

Mindblowing. And the bulk of that number, 133, all prior to Moyes BK. Circa 04/09.

 

[TheLegend]

Yes, many butchered the analysis of a very simple funds flow model. My favorite was Morgan misrepresenting naming rights and rent revenues as additional expenses. I guess for some admitting that the IA lease was awful and AEG will easily out perform it financially is just more than they can take.

No argument there. That tweet confused the hell out of me too.

I was concerned the previous post was making a blanket statement. Not everyone here (in AZ) sees it like that.

 

[TheLegend]

For the curious.....

 

[madhi19]

Most arenas do, which makes a mall and an arena an odd pairing to bring foot traffic. When the arena isn't hosting an event, it does nothing to help foot traffic.

It even worse, do you go shopping before a concert or a game? Me neither, how about after? Well since most events are in the evening, after they end everything is closed but the bars and restaurants. That a crapload of money spent just to paddle the profits of a few bars and restaurants 41 nights a year. Business wise Glendale need to bite the bullet, and retrofit the building for some other use that would actually create daytime foot traffic 365 days a year.

 

[Fugu]

City records show nearly $45 million loss on Gila River Arena management

...
Source: http://www.glendalestar.com/news/article_a56ff9a0-10b7-11e6-9225-ef4da6b407bf.html

I want to get some of the figures posted here in the thread.

Expenses:
NHL: $50 MM ($5MM of that due next year); 2010-11, 2011-12
IA: $35,051,370 over 2013, 2014, 2015
$80 million (NHL & IceArizona over 6 years).

Net Loss: $44,744,160
(add the $5MM to get final level, so $85 MM paid out, $49 MM net loss)

Arena Debt Service: $115,629,695 (2004 - present), thus a net loss of $160,373,855

Future Debt Service: $225,235,278 (2016 - 2033).


Revenues to COG:
Jobing.com Naming Rights: 16,259,753 (2006-13)
Gila River Naming Rights: $2,000,000 2013, 2014
Other: $17,047,457

Total Arena Mgt Revenue: $35,307,210 (over the life of the arena)

Westgate Sales Tax Revenue: $27.2 MM (2012-13 through 2014-15)
(not sure how much is attributable to arena events)

 

[Killion]

It even worse, do you go shopping before a concert or a game? Me neither, how about after? Well since most events are in the evening, after they end everything is closed but the bars and restaurants. That a crapload of money spent just to paddle the profits of a few bars and restaurants 41 nights a year. Business wise Glendale need to bite the bullet, and retrofit the building for some other use that would actually create daytime foot traffic 365 days a year.

Pretty awkward, inconvenient yes? If it's a "sports & entertainment" destination then thats a problem absent high speed rapid public transit from elsewhere as sure, you go to a game, concert or an event, lots of people are going to want to drink. You cant be doing that then driving home along 101 back into the city or wherever. Been a high-turnover of restaurants at Westgate not only because of that factor but so too just not enough traffic, not enough non-hockey bookings & the 41 home dates, your nuts if you go drinking before, during or after a game out there. Most of a restaurants profits are in beer, wine & alcohol sales. Sheer folly to be building something like that in outer suburbia in the first place absent ease of access via public transit. Same situation in many respects as Richfield Coliseum outside of Cleveland (site now a bird sanctuary) and the situation in Ottawa with the Senators home in Kanata amongst others.

 

[Fugu]

I think I'd have to disagree - when Chayka and his partner created Stathletes, he was offering his data analysis and metrics to the entire league. So it stands to reason that he's got a wealth of data on virtually everyone in the NHL and, possibly, in the developmental levels.

Chayka is not going to be wanting for information. What he lacks is experience, relationships, strategic and tactical skills in negotiation, and the respect of his new peers.

I keep hearing people throwing Theo Epstein around as a comparable, but it's apples to oranges if you ask me. Baseball is a statistical chess game and can be predicted far more readily by numbers and analytics than hockey. So a guy who creates a new system for analysis can use that as a basis for building a baseball team. The NHL is virtually the polar opposite - it's all on-ice chaos, puck bounces, big hits, and snarling "real man" ethos from the lowliest skate sharpener to the biggest power brokers.

So for me, it's clear that Chayka is the Wizard of Oz - there's someone behind the curtain pulling his levers, and it's Dave Tippett.

He'll have information that is quantifiable.

Experience in talent assessment is knowing, for example, that skating is a tougher skill to improve on by the time you're 18 than passing or shooting skills. You have to be able to project talent for each position, and understand where that player's skill set is in his development cycle. One of the toughest things for players trying to break into the NHL to do is adjust to NHL speed-- skating and how quickly the play goes. It's hard to look at some stats and know if a kid can do it, but if you have a superior skater relative to his peers, the odds are better.

He was actually offering his services, not the data he generates. I have no idea what he is actually measuring, but based on my own experience in measuring and analyzing behaviour, I would just assume the depth of measurement is much greater for coyotes players than all others because he's actually been doing it there, as opposed to simply offering to do it elsewhere.

If his approach has any value it is the precision and nuance of the measurement itself - the "intensive video analysis process", not the subsequent analysis based on those observations. I would bet dollars to donuts that he has not undertaken the laborious process of analyzing video of every other player in the league. The time and cost to do that properly would be enormous and it's impossible to think that IA made that sort of investment.

In some ways, he's simply quantifying and measuring what any other decent NHL-calibre GM or coach would be already be doing by instinct and experience. He's just being more deliberate and precise in his observation process which would allow for more reliable testing and conclusions.

Again, you can only do this for some of the things you're reviewing, but since you understand math, keep in mind that there are elements that cannot be untangled easily from other players on the ice, plus that hockey is basically a game governed by randomness. Over time, it fits Poisson distributions quite nicely.

The game is nowhere close to being something you can boil down to a bunch of stats.

 

[TheLegend]

Pretty awkward, inconvenient yes? If it's a "sports & entertainment" destination then thats a problem absent high speed rapid public transit from elsewhere as sure, you go to a game, concert or an event, lots of people are going to want to drink. You cant be doing that then driving home along 101 back into the city or wherever. Been a high-turnover of restaurants at Westgate not only because of that factor but so too just not enough traffic, not enough non-hockey bookings & the 41 home dates, your nuts if you go drinking before, during or after a game out there. Most of a restaurants profits are in beer, wine & alcohol sales. Sheer folly to be building something like that in outer suburbia in the first place absent ease of access via public transit. Same situation in many respects as Richfield Coliseum outside of Cleveland (site now a bird sanctuary) and the situation in Ottawa with the Senators home in Kanata amongst others.

In a few years Glendale won't be outer suburbia. We've discussed that before. The article below is a little dated but the growth rate out here hasn't slowed. And according to a more recent article Buckeye is 8-10 miles west and now the 4th fastest growing city in AZ

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2014/12/05/surprise-goodyear-among-top-10-fastest-growing-u-s.html

 

[CasualFan]

No argument there. That tweet confused the hell out of me too.

I was concerned the previous post was making a blanket statement. Not everyone here (in AZ) sees it like that.

I can appreciate that. FWIW, I like the new GM hire. I know that Megathread group think generally requires that everything IA does must be criticized - but analytics are innovative and just because he is young doesn't mean that he can't be a great GM

 

[JimAnchower]

Westgate Sales Tax Revenue: $27.2 MM (2012-13 through 2014-15)
(not sure how much is attributable to arena events)

Inexact to be sure, but in 2013 Westgate had about 5 million customers. In 2013-14, the Coyotes had an attendance of 564,798. So 10% or so would be close.

 

[Fugu]

I can appreciate that. FWIW, I like the new GM hire. I know that Megathread group think generally requires that everything IA does must be criticized - but analytics are innovative and just because he is young doesn't mean that he can't be a great GM

It's possible that he may be a great GM some day. One of my kids may be a great CEO some day too. I just don't think anyone would hire them at their current ages and experience levels to become one.

Analytics is innovative, to some extent, but mathematically speaking, it's just a bunch of algebra, mining through piles of data looking for meaning (the old correlation and causation stuff). He didn't invent the field. It's just Applied Math. With greater computational power, you have a lot of industries that have invested in data analysis, including banks and investment houses, insurance, quality control for manufacturers, etc.

As for IA, it seems these guys love to gamble, and they mostly seem to gamble with other people's money. More power to them for being able to convince someone else to always pay their freight, I guess.

Inexact to be sure, but in 2013 Westgate had about 5 million customers. In 2013-14, the Coyotes had an attendance of 564,798. So 10% or so would be close.

Yes, we are guessing a bit. The retailers and restaurants may have better data. The 10% would assume everyone going to the game would also shop and/or eat at Westgate. We know that's not likely the case. Frisoni certainly wanted to create a case that having the team there helped Glendale, via Westgate. I can believe that it does to some extent, but that has always been the question-- to what extent. Knowing that would help put in context the mgt fees paid out, and the value of the anchor tenancy.

 

[GuelphStormer]

Again, you can only do this for some of the things you're reviewing, but since you understand math, keep in mind that there are elements that cannot be untangled easily from other players on the ice, plus that hockey is basically a game governed by randomness. Over time, it fits Poisson distributions quite nicely.

The game is nowhere close to being something you can boil down to a bunch of stats.

I think we are in agreement. I like the idea of what he trying to do, but I am not confident that his process will ever replace "hockey smarts".

My understanding is that he would be very precisely reviewing video, in order to quantify actions and conditions and then begin to compile those data to look for patterns. Those patterns will begin to allow for insight into better practices on the ice.

Take a power play, for example. I can easily see an enormous amount of numeric data being generated in one 2-minute duration. Geospatial techniques will allow for tracking of each player - who is where at what time - this could likely be generated by video tracking techniques and presumably, this would be recorded for all players on the ice, probably even the officials (because their bodies sometimes get in the way). Speed and direction of all player body movement would be measured and quantified. So too would stick placement, head placement/direction, and any other physical characteristic of a player at any given time. Each "body" becomes an object that is tracked (and we'd also have object oriented data, like each player's weight, height, even age.) Now, track the puck. Where is it, where is going, who hit it, how did they hit it, how fast it is going in what direction, etc. Also keep track of time left on penalty or time in period.

Analysis packages exist that can then take those observational data and begin to compile them into sets of actions, reactions, expectations, etc. and then begin to deliberately parse out specific situations and results. (Traffic study helped to developed these sorts of geospatial analytical packages.) The analyst will then begin to ask questions, like what happened this time when three forwards hit the blue line at the same time? What happened that time when they hit the blue line staggered? What happened when the right defenceman laid back or maybe pushed ahead? When the puck is shot in on the right side, and the left forward presses against the boards to cut off the rebound, what happens? Does he intercept the puck and gain control, or does it scoot past him. The idea here is that eventually, patterns will emerge. And it will become possible to observed how various actions might more frequently result in preferred outcomes. The end result of the analysis is then to suggest those actions ... ie., pinch in on the left when the puck is shot in on the right.

Now, again, ALL of this is instinct. But the benefit of the analytical process is that it may possibly identify certain positive (or negative) results that may not necessarily have been apparent. Simple stats like penalty minutes, # goals and assists, time on ice, etc are completely meaningless to this sort of analysis. No, this sort of analysis requires a MUCH deeper, precise and purposive approach. That's my understanding of this body of analytics. I could be way off base, I dunno.

Im reminded of my dog. When we go to the park and I run away, she runs towards where I am going to be, not to where I am. Gretzky was a master at this. Skate or shoot to where someone will be, not to where they are now. Deek me out once, good for you. Deek me out twice, that's my fault. There are mathematical and statistical techniques that allow for us to understand and predict these sorts of behaviours, and results.

Is it worth doing? Absolutely it is. It is a replacement for a good hockey mind, absolutely not.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Total non hockey events: 133
2006-2009 AEG : 67 ( 4 years )
2010-2012 not in the article: 32 ( 3 years )
2013-2016 IA: 34 ( 3 years plus current )

So what's your point?

Well, you emphasized the period during which AEG averaged ~17 a year (they're fantastic!), compared it to IA's averaging ~11 a year (they suck!), and omitted a period during which AEG averaged that same ~11 a year (they...fantastically sucked?)

It's a quintessential example of the bias present on this board. If this whole megathread was an academic exercise and a lesson in social sciences and economics, fine. But the agendas present here continue to amaze.

 

[Whileee]

I can appreciate that. FWIW, I like the new GM hire. I know that Megathread group think generally requires that everything IA does must be criticized - but analytics are innovative and just because he is young doesn't mean that he can't be a great GM

Our organization has some great analysts and researchers. I can't imagine why I would want to take them out of that key role and make them managers, especially when we have some great managers. You can have analytics play a large role in an organization without making the analytics guy the GM. The other odd issue is having the coach make decisions about management, and a co-owner making public pronouncements about what trades they won't make.

 

[TheLegend]

I can appreciate that. FWIW, I like the new GM hire. I know that Megathread group think generally requires that everything IA does must be criticized - but analytics are innovative and just because he is young doesn't mean that he can't be a great GM

I've really got nothing against Chayka either. The consensus over in forum 40 seems to be Dave Tippett is getting a bigger role in which players to sign and that bothers them more. I share the same concern.

 

[CasualFan]

I totally respect the difference of opinion on the hire. It's subjective and we are not all going to see it the same way. It's not directly on-point but in 2002 Theo Epstein was the 28 year old analytics guy that was too young and not qualified to be the General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. Only time will tell if Chayka has similar success but I'm optimistic about it

 

[mesamonster]

Well, you emphasized the period during which AEG averaged ~17 a year (they're fantastic!), compared it to IA's averaging ~11 a year (they suck!), and omitted a period during which AEG averaged that same ~11 a year (they...fantastically sucked?)

It's a quintessential example of the bias present on this board. If this whole megathread was an academic exercise and a lesson in social sciences and economics, fine. But the agendas present here continue to amaze.

Gee, I guess we are not entitled to an opinion. What I take away from the event numbers is that GRA/Jobing operate in a competitive market and perhaps no single managing entity is going to do a very good job. Your insinuation that we are all biased seems to also suggest that you may also have an agenda? What might that be?

 

[not a troll]

I've really got nothing against Chayka either. The consensus over in forum 40 seems to be Dave Tippett is getting a bigger role in which players to sign and that bothers them more. I share the same concern.

Patrick Roy having a say in his personnel decisions hasn't worked out too well for the Avalanche. There were some pretty bad trades and signings.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Patrick Roy having a say in his personnel decisions hasn't worked out too well for the Avalanche. There were some pretty bad trades and signings.

I fully expect that trend to continue with Tippett.

Whether you're a fan of Tippett or not, it is very clear that he is very rigid in what he likes and doesn't. Now he's essentially gotten carte blanche to implement his team as he sees fit.

The big question to me is, will IceArizona have the balls to fire him if it all goes south?

 

[Fugu]

Patrick Roy having a say in his personnel decisions hasn't worked out too well for the Avalanche. There were some pretty bad trades and signings.

I look at it this way. A coach is measured on wins and losses. A GM has to manage all assets. Players, prospects, coaches, staff, scouts, capologist, etc. the measure of success is over a longer period.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

ROFL.

Gary Drummond is now President of Hockey Operations.

Tippett Executive VP of Hockey Operations with a 5-year extension.

I told y'all to keep an eye on Drummond...