Phil Danault vs Sean Monahan

[Gurglesons]

I pulled the last two years, which is a pretty large sample.

Did you know that in the 6 full seasons since Gaudreau's rookie year, Monahan's 5v5 p/60 without Gaudreau (~1,500 mins) is 1.38.

Danault has never been below 1.49 p/60 at 5v5 in any full season.

Without Gaudreau, Monahan has produced like a third line center. Danault has proven to produce like a high end 2C regardless of linemates.

Monahan's p/60 in his career is 1.91

Danault's p/60 in his career is 1.84

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Monahan's p/60 in his career is 1.91

Danault's p/60 in his career is 1.84

Yes, but Monahan's P/60 without Gaudreau is 1.38. What does that tell you?

 

[LeafGrief]

Sean Monahan is a 3x 30g scorer, and had 82 points in 78 games in 18/19

Phil Danault has a career high of 13g, and set a career high of 53 points in 18/19. He paced for 54 in 19/20.

Phil Danault might be the better defensive player, but a good defensive centre does not make up for a 30 point difference. Even if Monahan is only a 30g/65p player as he so consistently has been, he's better and more valuable. That's not to say Danault isn't good, but this is a slam dunk for Monahan.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yes, but Monahan's P/60 without Gaudreau is 1.38. What does that tell you?

Nothing, to be honest.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Monahan's p/60 in his career is 1.91

Danault's p/60 in his career is 1.84

If you consider P/60 a valid statistic, that’s pretty clear evidence that Danault is better. Monahan is very bad defensively while Danault is very good defensively, and a 4% scoring edge for Monahan doesn’t close that gap at all.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yes, but Monahan's P/60 without Gaudreau is 1.38. What does that tell you?

That players produce more when they play with talented players.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

Nothing, to be honest.

Well to be honest, after watching every flames game it is clear that Gaudreau carries Monahan.

 

[Gurglesons]

If you consider P/60 a valid statistic, that’s pretty clear evidence that Danault is better. Monahan is very bad defensively while Danault is very good defensively, and a 4% scoring edge for Monahan doesn’t close that gap at all.

I mean, Monahan averages like 9 goals a year on the power play so...

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I mean, Monahan averages like 9 goals a year on the power play so...

That doesn't make up the gap in defensive impact. And this is without even taking any sort of usage into account - Danault barely plays on the power play, and has historically had more defensive usage with weaker linemates than Monahan. Danault is comfortably better at scoring 5-on-5 points when you apply the slightest bit of nuance and given that he's also miles better defensively than Monahan, Monahan would need to be David Pastrnak level on the power play and he's not.

 

[Gurglesons]

That doesn't make up the gap in defensive impact. And this is without even taking any sort of usage into account - Danault barely plays on the power play, and has historically had more defensive usage with weaker linemates than Monahan. Danault is comfortably better at scoring 5-on-5 points when you apply the slightest bit of nuance and given that he's also miles better defensively than Monahan, Monahan would need to be David Pastrnak level on the power play and he's not.

Since entering the league Monahan is one of the best power play goal scorers in the league.

Danault has two very good 5 on 5 points seasons and even then Monahan's peak season was better.

Monahan is basically Brayden Schenn. Danault is like a Ryan O'Reilly b-side. I'll take Schenn over that every day of the week.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That players produce more when they play with talented players.

I also don't know why we are supposed to erase nearly all of Monahan's sustained success for a small sample he's played with lesser players.

I'm open to the idea that Danault could put up similar totals to Monahan, if given similar situations, but until he does it, it's a pretty weak argument that he's a comparable offensive player.

 

[Regal]

Monahan is by far the better player in the o zone, especially with puck on stick. Danault is better in all zones without the puck, but especially in the neutral and d zone. I’d take Monahan. Danault is a good defensive player (who puts up some points too) but he’s not anywhere near a Selke guy. If he was a Selke guy, then I’d prefer him.

Danault has finished 6th and 7th in Selke voting the last two years and his underlying numbers put him up near the best this season.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nothing, to be honest.

Really? Because his P/60 with Gaudreau is 2.16. So Monahan's productivity jumps 57% when he's paired with Gaudreau at 5v5.

You don't think this data suggests that maybe Monahan's stats are inflated because of playing with an elite winger? Would love to hear your explanation.

 

[Regal]

Monahan is a good player who knows how to put the puck in the net, but my issue with him is that he's not really good enough offensively to be an ideal 1C, and he's poor defensively so he's not really an ideal 2C either. If you have a Bergeron, O'Reilly or Couturier type who takes the hard matchups on your team, then he would be a good 2C, but usually you're going to have a more offensively inclined 1C, and you probably don't want either him or Monahan to be your matchup center. It works in Calgary because Gaudreau is the play-driver on the top line the way a center typically would be, and Backlund is the second line matchup center, but now you need a Gaudreau, Marner, Kane type winger to make it work. With Danault he can be that matchup 2C and succeed and still be effective if he moves down the lineup because he doesn't need PP time. So while Monahan might be the better player in a vacuum, I think Danault fits more teams. What Monahan brings seems like it would be more valuable as a winger, because then you don't worry about where you move him around in your top 6.

 

[Gurglesons]

Really? Because his P/60 with Gaudreau is 2.16. So Monahan's productivity jumps 57% when he's paired with Gaudreau at 5v5.

You don't think this data suggests that maybe Monahan's stats are inflated because of playing with an elite winger? Would love to hear your explanation.

What are you using to pull this data?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What are you using to pull this data?

Natural stat trick

 

[Gurglesons]

Natural stat trick

So, what report exactly are you using to calculate Monahan's entirety without Gaudreau considering they do not allow you to go over a three season sample with NST?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So, what report exactly are you using to calculate Monahan's entirety without Gaudreau considering they do not allow you to go over a three season sample with NST?

I am combining three year samples in the teammates report

 

[Gurglesons]

I am combining three year samples in the teammates report

So you're totaling up the numbers because P/60 with and without isn't captured in that report.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So you're totaling up the numbers because P/60 with and without isn't captured in that report.

Yes, I am totaling counts in each of the two 3 year sample reports, and then pulling out the individual totals from Monahan's player summary report.

Looks something like this:

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Why not compare Backlund and Danault instead? Literally identical player types but Danault is more physical and Backlund a better playmaker.

Sort of basing this poll at a time when 3/4 of the board thinks Monahan = Galchenyuk and that Danault = the next Ryan O'Reilly

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Monahan is a legit 1C in this league.

He’s Brayden Schenn.

Sean Monahan plays nothing like Brayden Schenn. Honestly when you say things like this it makes me think you've never watched him play.

 

[Gurglesons]

Sean Monahan plays nothing like Brayden Schenn. Honestly when you say things like this it makes me think you've never watched him play.

You're right. Monahan has arguably been a better player throughout his career.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You're right. Monahan has arguably been a better player throughout his career.

Schenn is a well rounded 200 foot center who can score goals, make plays, hit, fight, and defend.
Monahan can finish around the net and win faceoffs, and is unable to create offense on his own. He is not a 1C.

Still waiting on your explanation to the below:

His P/60 with Gaudreau is 2.16. So Monahan's productivity jumps 57% when he's paired with Gaudreau at 5v5.

You don't think this data suggests that maybe Monahan's stats are inflated because of playing with an elite winger? Would love to hear your explanation.

 

[Gurglesons]

Schenn is a well rounded 200 foot center who can score goals, make plays, hit, fight, and defend.
Monahan can finish around the net and win faceoffs, and is unable to create offense on his own. He is not a 1C.

PHI wasn't even confident in Schenn as a center for his last two years.

Still waiting on your explanation to the below:

His P/60 with Gaudreau is 2.16. So Monahan's productivity jumps 57% when he's paired with Gaudreau at 5v5.

You don't think this data suggests that maybe Monahan's stats are inflated because of playing with an elite winger? Would love to hear your explanation.

No, I don't. Monahan's productivity jumps 57% because he has spent nearly 75% of his ice time with Gaudreau over the sample you pulled.

I'm sure you'll see a similar stat line with Gallagher and Danault considering how much they've played together over the past few years as well.

I dunno, I think your far overrating defensive impact with both Schenn and Danault versus Monahan's production.