Post-Game Talk: | Pens vs Wings | loss | garbage effort

[BHD]

Kidney with a solid take on the roster and system.

 

[Gurglesons]

We'll have to agree to disagree because I can't fathom how someone can just say the issues we have in losses is roster related when those issues don't seem to appear in most wins. The difference between the two is in wins the team seems to have the energy/jump to play that high pressure system, but in losses it doesn't have the legs, so the system fails without 100% buy-in.

But anyways, guess we'll be arguing about this for the next decade because Sullivan's going nowhere.

It’s really the most frustrating part of the team. It’s Bylsma after 2013 all over again.

But even then Bylsma’s rosters were wayyyy worse than Sullivan’s.

 

[Pancakes]

We'll have to agree to disagree because I can't fathom how someone can just say the issues we have in losses is roster related when those issues don't seem to appear in most wins. The difference between the two is in wins the team seems to have the energy/jump to play that high pressure system, but in losses it doesn't have the legs, so the system fails without 100% buy-in.

But anyways, guess we'll be arguing about this for the next decade because Sullivan's going nowhere.

They do though. Look at our charts on most wins and you'll find that the Carter line has often still had a bad game, for example.

 

[The Old Master]

This is kind of why I'm up for trading Jake, tbh, if the return is good. He's been coasting, albeit with an uncanny ability to put up points, for a few seasons now and he's frankly just not looking good this year. Rust is even worse, but he's essentially immobile with the NMC. Heinen shouldn't be in the lineup; he should be waived and sent to WB/S.

just put jake with geno, that will fix him.

 

[Pancakes]

It’s really the most frustrating part of the team. It’s Bylsma after 2013 all over again.

But even then Bylsma’s rosters were wayyyy worse than Sullivan’s.

I dunno about that. Prime Crosby, prime Malkin. Prime Staal. Prime Letang. A good top 4 d.

Our forward depth on the wings was worse but otherwise those rosters tended to be pretty good.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Stop playing Brian Dumoulin and Jeff Carter.

As much as I agree with you, those 2 aren’t the sole reason we lost.

We really didn’t go out there with a purpose once we were up 4-0. I almost was going to fast forward the game at they point, as I thought it was pretty much over at that point but I chose to savor the supposed thrashing :/.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

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weird how some teams can break up elite players and make it work, but we have to force Jake and Crosby every game.

guess that's the luxury when you have players like Jake Debrusk and Nick Foligno lol.

When is the last time Marchand and Bergeron were on separate lines for an extended time? That's the combo you should be comparing Jake and Sid to.

I just don't really agree with this. We're old, but we skate just fine. The reason we look like a buzz saw one night and shit the next is our bottom six is horrible. When our top six has an off night, we suck.

Like I said, I don't think it's a systems thing. I think it's a roster thing. Half of our lineup can't pick up the other half when they have a bad game.

It's also why even our wins feel like a struggle because even in those games usually only half of our lineup is going

Yes, yes. A thousand times, yes.

 

[Gurglesons]

When is the last time Marchand and Bergeron were on separate lines for an extended time? That's the combo you should be comparing Jake and Sid to.


Yes, yes. A thousand times, yes.

Is Jake a Marchand type? Looks a lot more like a Pasta out there.

@ me when Guentzel starts to be one of the best PKers and defensive players in the league while scoring at a 40 and 40 rate.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

They do though. Look at our charts on most wins and you'll find that the Carter line has often still had a bad game, for example.

Why are you only focusing on Carter's line? Sully's system breaks down when all four lines don't have their legs. It works when the majority of the team has their legs. Focusing on one line to prove it's not a system thing is a bit weird. That's like me saying our system didn't really work in 2016 because David Perron couldn't play it well, even though evidence (and the fact we won the Cup) suggests it actually did work for the team as a whole.

Sullivan's misuse of Carter and him struggling in wins because of that misuse doesn't negate the fact his system that the other 11 forwards struggle with when they don't have their legs is a flawed one.

 

[Pancakes]

Why are you only focusing on Carter's line? Sully's system breaks down when all four lines don't have their legs. It works when the majority of the team has their legs. Focusing on one line to prove it's not a system thing is a bit weird. That's like me saying our system didn't really work in 2016 because David Perron couldn't play it well, even though evidence (and the fact we won the Cup) suggests it actually did work for the team as a whole.

Sullivan's misuse of Carter and him struggling in wins because of that misuse doesn't negate the fact his system that the other 11 forwards struggle with when they don't have their legs is a flawed one.

I focused on Carter's line because it's particularly egregious, but our entire bottom six aside from Josh Archibald is sporting xgoals percentages below 50%. In the case of Carter's line it's particularly egregious with Carter (40%), Kapanen (40%), Mcginn (41%). Then there's Heinen (46%), Blueger (47%), Poehling (48%), and Archibald (55%). The fourth line at least looks almost respectable but even they are south of 50%.

Meanwhile our top six is more than carrying their share with around 55% or higher for all of them.

That's why I don't think it's a system thing. Our bottom six is almost always bad and our top six is almost always good.

If you want to say xgoals is a flawed stat or dont like it or whatever we can also look at shot attempts (our bottom six is atrocious there, top six is good) or eye test (I think most would agree that the bottom six looks horrible by the eye test too)

And before anyone brings up deployments, let's just nip that one right in the bud. Deployments can affect these numbers in a negative way but there's zero excuse for the Carter line in particular to be that consistently bad. If they even got their numbers up to the mediocre 4th line level we'd be in a much better place.

Like when I look at our wins, our bottom six often sucks in those too. That's why every win feels like a struggle unless our top six pops off. It's a testament to how good our top six is that we're where we are at in the standings because our bottom six has to be one of the worst of any playoff team in the league.

 

[HandshakeLine]

At what point do you separate the bottom 6's atrocious performance from the coaching though? This is the bottom 6 the coaches want, that they deploy as much or as little as they deem fit, and the lines they want to roll. At any point, the coaches could bench players or scratch them or request that the front office trades them. If you have a 4th line that you cannot trust to play more than 8 minutes a night, why not get the GM to get you a 4th line you can use? At this point, I don't think there's any evidence that the coaches even think the bottom 6 is a problem, regardless of the stats or the eye test or the results.

Incidentally, I know Rust isn't really like Kessel at all in any shape, but the idea of putting a decently-producing wing on the 3rd and popping a speedy mucker into the top 6 to do dirty work on Sid or Geno's line was a pretty core part of this team's success under Sullivan.

 

[BusinessGoose]

HBK was a success, but it was born out of accident.... Injuries helped force Sully's hand, right?

 

[BigEezyE22]

HHOF is just a nepotism bukkake.

I saw one of those videos once...

 

[Icarium]

The third line and/or whatever pairing Dumo is on hanging on for dear life for long stretches of many games also serves as a boost for the opponents. When the opponents get a few shifts spent almost entirely in the offensive zone peppering our goalie with shots, they gain confidence and momentum. The Pens get fatigued because of all the forechecking pressure, icings, too long shifts, etc., so mistakes start piling up, which leads to even more pressure and a vicious circle.
That's why having such glaring holes in your roster can be damaging even if the decisive goals aren't scored against them. Jarry playing like a Vezina candidate apparently makes Sully believes the third line is a legit shutdown line. Truly a Jack Adams worthy rationale.

 

[Night Shift]

Can't wait to see Ty Smith tonight.

 

[Victor Z]

Can't wait to see Ty Smith tonight.

If you do see Smith be sure to ask what's good at the press box buffet tonight. He's got insight.

Barring a sudden pre-game injury to one of our six defensive All Stars, the only way Smith gets into the lineup is if Friedman is scratched, which considering Friedman was our best D out there vs. Detroit would be a Very Sully Thing to do.

 

[Gurglesons]

If you do see Smith be sure to ask what's good at the press box buffet tonight. He's got insight.

Barring a sudden pre-game injury to one of our six defensive All Stars, the only way Smith gets into the lineup is if Friedman is scratched, which considering Friedman was our best D out there vs. Detroit would be a Very Sully Thing to do.

Letang is hurt.

Can't wait to see Ty Smith tonight.

I honestly think throwing him in this game is possibly the worst potential thing for him. Could see him getting absolutely abused.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Letang is hurt.

I was assured that his injury woes were a thing of the past.

 

[Night Shift]

If you do see Smith be sure to ask what's good at the press box buffet tonight. He's got insight.

Barring a sudden pre-game injury to one of our six defensive All Stars, the only way Smith gets into the lineup is if Friedman is scratched, which considering Friedman was our best D out there vs. Detroit would be a Very Sully Thing to do.

Letang is day to day with a lower body injury. They didn't rule him out of tonight (per sey) but it's unlikely.

 

[Night Shift]

I honestly think throwing him in this game is possibly the worst potential thing for him. Could see him getting absolutely abused.

I think you'd be right if he is coming in and eating Letang's minutes but I think he'll be on line 3 sheltered.

Plus you don't think he's juiced up to show the Devils something?

 

[Victor Z]

I think you'd be right if he is coming in and eating Letang's minutes but I think he'll be on line 3 sheltered.

Plus you don't think he's juiced up to show the Devils something?

I hope so. In fact this means that Smith-Friedman could be our most effective pairing vs. NJD.

 

[Gurglesons]

I hope so. In fact this means that Smith-Friedman could be our most effective pairing vs. NJD.

Ty Smith will likely play under 13 minutes tonight lol

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Can't wait to see Ty Smith tonight.

We should be lucky if he sees more than 7mins tonight.

I don’t even know if I want to watch the game tonight.

 

[Night Shift]

We should be lucky if he sees more than 7mins tonight.

I don’t even know if I want to watch the game tonight.

What better show out there is better than Sullivan and his bag of tricks?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I focused on Carter's line because it's particularly egregious, but our entire bottom six aside from Josh Archibald is sporting xgoals percentages below 50%. In the case of Carter's line it's particularly egregious with Carter (40%), Kapanen (40%), Mcginn (41%). Then there's Heinen (46%), Blueger (47%), Poehling (48%), and Archibald (55%). The fourth line at least looks almost respectable but even they are south of 50%.

Meanwhile our top six is more than carrying their share with around 55% or higher for all of them.

That's why I don't think it's a system thing. Our bottom six is almost always bad and our top six is almost always good.

If you want to say xgoals is a flawed stat or dont like it or whatever we can also look at shot attempts (our bottom six is atrocious there, top six is good) or eye test (I think most would agree that the bottom six looks horrible by the eye test too)

And before anyone brings up deployments, let's just nip that one right in the bud. Deployments can affect these numbers in a negative way but there's zero excuse for the Carter line in particular to be that consistently bad. If they even got their numbers up to the mediocre 4th line level we'd be in a much better place.

Like when I look at our wins, our bottom six often sucks in those too. That's why every win feels like a struggle unless our top six pops off. It's a testament to how good our top six is that we're where we are at in the standings because our bottom six has to be one of the worst of any playoff team in the league.

Okay, so then doesn't this reinforce the idea that the coach's system isn't a fit for this team? If those are the results he keeps getting from the bottom six playing this system, then shouldn't that indicate they *can't* play this system and thus, his system is an issue?

I think the fact our bottom six (according to your numbers -- I haven't looked it up) always struggles to get positive results, and the fact our top six needs to 100% have their skating legs to play it otherwise they also look like trash when they don't have their legs, is MORE evidence it's the system.

This goes back to what I keep saying. Whether or not it's a good "system" as a whole is irrelevant. What matters is whether the roster he has available to him can play it effectively. And as we've seen, they can't. So saying "well it's the roster then" ignores the fact that his system he employs doesn't work with the pieces he has available to him.

If it was simply roster related and the bottom six just flat out sucks, then we wouldn't see the top six look just as bad as them when they don't have their legs. The top six would always look great, but we'd be pulled down by poor bottom six play. But when we lose (and even in some wins), the top six looks just as ass as the bottom six.