Confirmed with Link: Pens trade 1st (No. 31) + Oskar Sundqvist for Ryan Reaves and Blues 2nd (No. 51)

[HandshakeLine]

Hey less draft talk and more complaining! I got my eye on you!

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

I understand complaining about the cost. What I don't understand is complaining about a 4th liner who can skate and hit, as well as win the occasional fight. Are the Pens not allowed to hit anymore? Does that go against their "just play" motto? I for one think the Pens are too easy on opposing teams' defensemen. Look at how banged up our team was. Why not inflict some heavy hits on opposing teams as well? This trade isn't just about adding a fighter. It's adding physicality that can play. I keep hearing Tanner Glass. He's a better skater than Glass. Better on the forecheck and cycle, better hitter and yes, a better fighter.

I trust Sullivan to keep this team focused.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Genuine question: What sort of impact do you think Reaves has on preventing/deterring the Dubinskys, Staals, Niskanens and Phaneufs from doing what they've done, and what does he do after the fact when a cheap shot does happen?

I think he'll confront them, and they'll do it a lot less often.

 

[habergeon]

Like I said, give it until Halloween and most people bashing this trade will be in love with Reaves.

If you say he can't skate, that means you never watched him play. If you say he's a goon, you never watched him play.

He's a legit hammer that has more skill than guys like Kuhn. Watch and learn.

Opposing fan coming in peace, but have to say I agree with this statement and I've watched him play.

He may not look good on the analytics side, but people are legitimately afraid of this guy. He is a real physical specimen with a mean streak, can hit, fight and instill fear out there.

He can also skate, is a great team mate and really won't really hurt you defensively. He is also very disciplined.

There are not many guys like Reaves left, and yes the league is changing but you don't want guys like Malkin fighting, and the abuse and stick work Crosby takes is absolutely insane. Reaves is going to drastically cut that down for you guys, and both his teammates and the fans are going to love him for it.

I wouldn't get too excited about the picks either. Your first was basically a 2nd, so in that context your just changing position in the 2nd round. Reaves and a 2nd round pick for a better 2nd round pick is not an overpayment. I would imagine Sundqvist got involved to even out the value a bit, and maybe someone else in your division was trying to get him.

Either way, this trade helps you guys and I like it.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

Because the premise of the analytics guys in the links you gave assumes that fight quantity is what makes for effective enforcement. By that measure, Tanner Glass would be considered exactly as effective a deterrent as Ryan Reaves despite the former being little more than a punching bag and the latter being the best fighter in the league.

But if you think I'm missing something there, please point out why you believe that fight quantity is a reliable way to gauge the effectiveness of an enforcer.

You didn't read them all. In at least one of the links, fight quantity is only used to gauge who is an enforcer to begin with. And it's only one of the things that is used. I think that the top 20 guys in fighting majors are probably all enforcers. (He also counts guys who get less than 8 ATOI with at least 1.2 PIM/PG as enforcers, so even that is not all based on fight quantity.) Then he looks at how frequently there are injuries resulting from questionable or dirty hits when the injured player's team had one of those guys dressed vs when they don't. Unsurprisingly, at least to me, dressing an enforcer had basically no impact on the safety of a team's stars.

But really there is no way to gauge "effectiveness of an enforcer," because there's no such thing Unless you mean how to gauge his effectiveness as an overall hockey player, in which case you can use things like PPG, G and A/60, GF and GA/60, various advanced stats, and the eye test. I already did that, and Reaves sucks at all of them except the eye test. But almost 100% of them are terrible hockey players anyway.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

I understand complaining about the cost. What I don't understand is complaining about a 4th liner who can skate and hit, as well as win the occasional fight. Are the Pens not allowed to hit anymore? Does that go against their "just play" motto?

It's not that they're not allowed to hit, it's just that hitting is basically irrelevant. The formula is speed, skill and discipline in every forward slot. Reaves has the speed but lacks the skill and discipline.

Winning the occasional fight is completely irrelevant. It has nothing to do with playing hockey.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I think he'll confront them, and they'll do it a lot less often.

Confront them as in ask them not to do it? Ask them to fight? Or straight up drop the gloves and rag-doll them?

I don't think the first two accomplish anything, because there's no obligation on their part to accommodate Reaves in that respect, and I think the third option gets Reaves a game misconduct and us killing a penalty while Dubinsky (example) chuckles on the bench and continues to go about his business.

I don't know man. I'm actually kind of stoked for Reaves to replace the nondescript guys like Wilson on the 4th line and look forward to his ability to put guys into the third row. But I think this school of thought that guys like Reaves prevent Sid or Geno from taking shots is silly. It never stopped our guys from getting shots in the past, and I don't see why it'd stop it from happening now.

A guy like Dubinsky is like Kesler. He knows he can't compete with guys like Sid, Geno or Guentzel, so he does what he does to take them off their game instead. He got to the NHL getting superior players off their game and handing out cheap shots in hopes of making sure the opposing guy wasn't at his best. That's not going to change because we landed some big dude who can chuck knucks like nobody else in the league, imo.

We'll see though. At worst, we payed a bunch for a bigger, more physical Kunitz. If Reaves can bring it physically (hitting, not fighting) like Kunitz did in the Nashville series by punishing guys on the forecheck and against the boards, whatever. But I don't want a guy running around thumping his chest on the ice, ****ing up what Sully's got this team buying into with regard to "just play."

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You didn't read them all. In at least one of the links, fight quantity is only used to gauge who is an enforcer to begin with. And it's only one of the things that is used. I think that the top 20 guys in fighting majors are probably all enforcers. (He also counts guys who get less than 8 ATOI with at least 1.2 PIM/PG as enforcers, so even that is not all based on fight quantity.) Then he looks at how frequently there are injuries resulting from questionable or dirty hits when the injured players team had one of those guys dressed vs when they don't. Unsurprisingly, at least to me, dressing an enforcer had basically no impact on the safety of a team's stars.

But really there is no way to gauge "effectiveness of an enforcer," because there's no such thing Unless you mean how to gauge his effectiveness as an overall hockey player, in which case you can use things like PPG, G and A/60, GF and GA/60, various advanced stats, and the eye test. I already did that, and Reaves sucks at all of them except the eye test. But almost 100% of them are terrible hockey players anyway.

It shouldn't be used at all. Fight quantity has absolutely nothing to do with the effectiveness of an enforcer's deterrence.

Frankly, I don't see any metric that can reliably gauge it. Lumping all borderline/dirty hits together doesn't work either, as some borderline/dirty hits are always going to happen because of the speed of the game/frustration/etc. What we want to minimize are the repeated, premeditated cheap shots that we saw Crosby take all through the playoffs.

 

[Shrimper]

Who will be our third and fourth C's now?

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

It shouldn't be used at all. Fight quantity has absolutely nothing to do with the effectiveness of an enforcer's deterrence.

But it's not used to determine the effectiveness of the enforcer. It's used to define who enforcers are in the first place. And like I said, it's only one of the things used. Do you agree or disagree that the top 20 players in fighting majors are all enforcers? Not necessarily that they're the best ones or the only ones, just that all of them count? Because that's all Adam Gretz used the number of fighting majors to determine.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Confront them as in ask them not to do it? Ask them to fight? Or straight up drop the gloves and rag-doll them?

I don't think the first two accomplish anything, because there's no obligation on their part to accommodate Reaves in that respect, and I think the third option gets Reaves a game misconduct and us killing a penalty while Dubinsky (example) chuckles on the bench and continues to go about his business.

To be honest, I don't think many players chuckle on the bench after Reaves rag dolls them.

If Reaves' reputation doesn't precede him, he might have to set an example or two early on next season. We'll see.

I don't know man. I'm actually kind of stoked for Reaves to replace the nondescript guys like Wilson on the 4th line and look forward to his ability to put guys into the third row. But I think this school of thought that guys like Reaves prevent Sid or Geno from taking shots is silly. It never stopped our guys from getting shots in the past, and I don't see why it'd stop it from happening now.

That's where we disagree. When BGL and Roberts first came in, those cheap shots dropped dramatically:

"It's a little calmer out there. [Laraque]'s got that presence," Penguins star Sidney Crosby said. "I'm not saying teams aren't going to play tough, because they are, but he's got that presence. It's something you can't teach and not everyone has that and I feel lucky to have a guy like that on my team."

http://www.hockey-fights.com/forum/showtopic.php?fid/27/tid/506582/

Godard did a good job too, because he was a willing fighter but knew how to pick his spots.

I'm not sure if people have forgotten about this or engaged in some revisionist history to justify the speed and skill good/fighting dumb narrative, but it can work when you have good ones. It has worked, and for this team.

 

[Koempel]

The (steep) price aside, for those who have seen a bit more of Reaves, is he basically an enforcer, or a decent and relatively fast skating wrecking ball? I am getting two different vibes by reading this thread and since I try to avoid watching the Blues at all costs...

 

[habergeon]

It's not that they're not allowed to hit, it's just that hitting is basically irrelevant.

Respectfully, no it's not.

I can only speak for Canadian hockey programs but players are taught at an early age that the goal of hitting is puck separation, not hurting people. It's one of the best ways to get puck possession because your sealing off the opposing player after taking the puck away, giving yourself room and space to make your play.

There are many other benefits to hitting as well, a lot that can't be measured. You can really speed up an opposing teams defense into make exit mistakes with a good aggressive forecheck and finishing your hits, and this leads to scoring chances (which are the holy grail). Even if you are not hitting an opposing defenseman on a dump and chase, if you've established that you will the thought if it can speed up plays.

In my books, saying hitting is irrelevant is like saying blocked shots don't take away scoring changes. There are a reason both of these activities rise in the playoffs to higher levels than the regular season, because of the huge impact they make in the "game inside the game".

Finally, hitting intimidates and wears opponents down. If you target certain players on forechecks you can really alter their game and appear to almost break them down.

If you ever get a chance, watch Team Canada's world junior game against Russia when Malkin and Ovechkin played on the same team and were two of the most dominant players in the world at their age. With Ovechkin in particular, he was absolutely done, they made him quit and the plays he did make were to save his own body and not generate any offense. it was one of the better executed forechecking systems I've seen in a game at any level and it drastically changed the game and the outcome.

Anyway, crawling back to my hole now

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

Who will be our third and fourth C's now?

Teddy Bluegers-DiPauli and Carter Rowney.

 

[clefty]

Respectfully, no it's not.

I can only speak for Canadian hockey programs but players are taught at an early age that the goal of hitting is puck separation, not hurting people. It's one of the best ways to get puck possession because your sealing off the opposing player after taking the puck away, giving yourself room and space to make your play.

There are many other benefits to hitting as well, a lot that can't be measured. You can really speed up an opposing teams defense into make exit mistakes with a good aggressive forecheck and finishing your hits, and this leads to scoring chances (which are the holy grail). Even if you are not hitting an opposing defenseman on a dump and chase, if you've established that you will the thought if it can speed up plays.

In my books, saying hitting is irrelevant is like saying blocked shots don't take away scoring changes. There are a reason both of these activities rise in the playoffs to higher levels than the regular season, because of the huge impact they make in the "game inside the game".

Finally, hitting intimidates and wears opponents down. If you target certain players on forechecks you can really alter their game and appear to almost break them down.

If you ever get a chance, watch Team Canada's world junior game against Russia when Malkin and Ovechkin played on the same team and were two of the most dominant players in the world at their age. With Ovechkin in particular, he was absolutely done, they made him quit and the plays he did make were to save his own body and not generate any offense. it was one of the better executed forechecking systems I've seen in a game at any level and it drastically changed the game and the outcome.

Anyway, crawling back to my hole now

You shouldn't, because you're right and this is a good post.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But it's not used to determine the effectiveness of the enforcer. It's used to define who enforcers are in the first place. And like I said, it's only one of the things used. Do you agree or disagree that the top 20 players in fighting majors are all enforcers? Not necessarily that they're the best ones or the only ones, just that all of them count? Because that's all Adam Gretz used the number of fighting majors to determine.

In your 2nd and 3rd links, it absolutely was:

But they don't. This isn't about opinions, where people can think or disagree. It's a quantified mathematical fact that deterrence is not a real thing.

http://deadspin.com/the-enforcer-fallacy-hockeys-fighting-specialists-don-1442618145
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...fighting-deter-other-nasty-business-in-hockey
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...d-the-new-era-of-the-one-dimensional-fighter/

You're arguing "I think" vs statistical facts. I don't care what you think. The facts say that you're wrong.

I ran a correlation study between fighting majors taken and non-obstruction penalties drawn and the r^2 value came back 0.0257; non-obstruction penalties actually increased with fighting majors though there's hardly any correlation there.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...fighting-deter-other-nasty-business-in-hockey

Over the last five seasons, the blog Springing Malik has tracked injuries in the NHL, recording man games lost. I compared those numbers with the NHL’s official record of major penalties. There’s quite a bit of noise – nobody expects an enforcer to prevent a player from pulling his groin in the off-season, for example – but my belief was that if fighting helped prevent injuries there should be at least some small correlation between more major penalties and fewer man games lost.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...nd-the-new-era-of-the-one-dimensional-fighter

Bad use of stats.

And in your 1st link, the Gretz piece, did you see the criteria he used? Here it is:

I went back over the last two years and looked at every team that was on the receiving end of a hit that resulted in a suspension, fine, or match penalty (I excluded match penalties that were later rescinded by the league, as well as any fines or suspensions for other incidents, including verbal abuse, hand gestures, etc.) and looked at whether or not they had fighter in the lineup on that night.

Do you see the problem with that? The whole reason JR got Reaves is because what's happening to Sid isn't getting suspended, fined, or penalized.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

Respectfully, no it's not.

I can only speak for Canadian hockey programs but players are taught at an early age that the goal of hitting is puck separation, not hurting people. It's one of the best ways to get puck possession because your sealing off the opposing player after taking the puck away, giving yourself room and space to make your play.

There are many other benefits to hitting as well, a lot that can't be measured. You can really speed up an opposing teams defense into make exit mistakes with a good aggressive forecheck and finishing your hits, and this leads to scoring chances (which are the holy grail). Even if you are not hitting an opposing defenseman on a dump and chase, if you've established that you will the thought if it can speed up plays.

If teams are turning the puck over in their own zone, that should show up in possession stats over a long sample size. Reaves has lousy possession stats. So even if I'm willing to concede the premise that some hitting might be relevant, his isn't.

Finally, hitting intimidates

Professional hockey players are not afraid of their opponents. There's just no way I'm ever going to believe that. You can't play hockey that well and be afraid of some no-talent clown who throws his body around. No way.

It's fitting that the example you used was kids who had virtually no experience in American-style hockey. I'm sure a lot of kids are afraid of their opponents. They either get over it (like Ovi and Malkin clearly and obviously did...those guys don't back down from anyone) or they wash out somewhere along the line.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

Do you see the problem with that? The whole reason JR got Reaves is because what's happening to Sid isn't getting suspended, fined, or penalized.

Wait, are you really saying that JR got Reaves to play him in the playoffs? A useless goon with 1G 0A 36 GP in the playoffs?


If that's really the plan, this trade is even stupider than I thought.

 

[WayneSid9987]

I had a really good post with 7 or 8 good clips deep into the youtubes of Reaves and none involved fighting. I lost it when i hit Submit and my login timed out.

Anyways, here was the one that started me down the deep youtube hole. It was a fun ride.



I had like nice goal clips and everything...

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

I still believe that Sully had a large say in this. He probably wanted an enforcer, seeing how Sestito somehow got to play in our system.

Love the player, don't like the price.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

I still believe that Sully had a large say in this.

Sully obviously had to be talked into it. Why else would JR and some other guy(s) have to pull him aside? The quote from him about the trade is basically a nice way of saying "he doesn't fit our system."

 

[WayneSid9987]

Who will be our third and fourth C's now?

100% JR gets a solid vet 3C either via trade or FA'y.
4C it depends on how much $ he has left after RFA/UFA signings.
Either a dirt cheap vet that can give you Cullen'esque type minutes or Cullen himself or let Rowney and the youngin' Bleugers battle it out.

 

[Dawkins]

Life is great in the world of glass half full .

I will certainly be shocked if they don't say that whoever they pick was much higher than 51 on their board. After all they always kinda do. Whether that is true or just PR is something else.

So cynical TR, but yes, you're almost certainly right. I just think in this instance, with this draft, it might actually be true.

Oh, and for the record, I don't believe I've ever been described as a 'glass half full' person before. Novel.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Sully obviously had to be talked into it. Why else would JR and some other guy(s) have to pull him aside? The quote from him about the trade is basically a nice way of saying "he doesn't fit our system."

If it's the quote I'm thinking of I strongly disagree. Sundqvist was probably a late add to the deal and JR wanted Sully's evaluation on him.

 

[Iron Tusk]

I really don't mind this trade. I guess that's what happens when you win back-to-back cups.