Salary Cap: Pens Salary thread: It has been 0 days since our last injury

[Empoleon8771]

I also think people grossly exaggerate the issues with Carter. I think his declining play was as simple as him just being worn down from playing in his first full season in years at age 37. I also think people grossly exaggerate how bad he was when he was worn down. He still had 7 goals and 19 points in 37 games in the last 3 months of the season and 4 goals and 5 points against the Rangers.

I also thought that Carter's analytics really fell off to end last year, but they don't actually seem as bad as I remembered from looking now. Over that same 37 game sample size, his xGF%Rel was pretty much the same as Rust, Matheson and Letang. Both Matheson and Rust have equal or worse analytics than Carter over any sample size you'd want to select as Carter having bad analytics as well. In their last 15 games, Rust had a -9.88% xGF%Rel and Matheson had a -6.62% xGF%Rel, compared to Carter's -5.14% xGF%Rel.

This is actually surprising to me, because I didn't realize that Matheson's analytics cratered to end last year as well.

 

[Gurglesons]

I also think people grossly exaggerate the issues with Carter. I think his declining play was as simple as him just being worn down from playing in his first full season in years at age 37. I also think people grossly exaggerate how bad he was when he was worn down. He still had 7 goals and 19 points in 37 games in the last 3 months of the season and 4 goals and 5 points against the Rangers.

I also thought that Carter's analytics really fell off to end last year, but they don't actually seem as bad as I remembered from looking now. Over that same 37 game sample size, his xGF%Rel was pretty much the same as Rust, Matheson and Letang. Both Matheson and Rust have equal or worse analytics than Carter over any sample size you'd want to select as Carter having bad analytics as well. In their last 15 games, Rust had a -9.88% xGF%Rel and Matheson had a -6.62% xGF%Rel, compared to Carter's -5.14% xGF%Rel.

This is actually surprising to me, because I didn't realize that Matheson's analytics cratered to end last year as well.

He had poor metrics because he was elevated up the line up which is why I don't get why anyone cares about us trading him for a player that actually can be successful in those minutes.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm not saying we should "question" his habits, but I can also safely state he's not doing what Sid or MacK are doing in terms of their dietary and workout routines. And all I'm saying is that if Carter did even a portion of what they're doing in that regard and recommitted himself, he could take his game up a notch and better sustain it throughout the year.

And trust me: I WISH we would have found out Carter had a nagging injury that explained his second half performance, but we heard of no such thing.

Covid too. We forgot that. He got it twice last year, with the 2nd time being not long before his drop off. Coulda been a strain on energy levels.

Sid and Mac's #1 priority in their lives is hockey. They don't have wives or children. Not the case with Carter, who loves his family dearly.
At his age, game count and having already won multiple Cups, it's hard to ask someone to train like the gym rats. But I don't get the impression that he's Phil Kessel either. He looked lean last year...leaner than year 1. He is trying.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Yes, I believe that’s right. They will only be able to carry 12 forwards since they will have 8 D men with Friedman waived. Thus a roster of 22

I know better than to question the lawyer when it comes to fine detail work like cap management.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I dunno, I think this is the year Carter’s finally going to figure out a way to age in reverse.

 

[SomeDude]

I dunno, I think this is the year Carter’s finally going to figure out a way to age in reverse.

Not wasting his legs on the PK would go a long way in this process. They need someone else who can be counted on to win a defensive faceoff.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

A 19-man roster of:

Guentzel
Crosby
Rust
Rakell
Malkin
Kapanen
Zucker
Carter
Heinen
Poehling
Blueger
McGinn
Dumoulin
Letang
Pettersson
Petry
Rutta
Jarry
DeSmith

Has a cap hit of $79.89M -- leaving $2.6M in space.

 

[chethejet]

To this day I don't get the 2 year deal for Carter unless there was a handshake agreement for him to come here. In any event he can still be a ok 3rd or 4th line forward if his minutes are lower.

 

[Mr. T]

I haven't seen much of Poehling, but if he has a little skill, wouldn't it make more sense to give to give him bigger minutes in WBS vs. 4th line and/or press box duty in the NHL? Or is this just a waiver thing that everyone has him penciled in with the big club?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I haven't seen much of Poehling, but if he has a little skill, wouldn't it make more sense to give to give him bigger minutes in WBS vs. 4th line and/or press box duty in the NHL? Or is this just a waiver thing that everyone has him penciled in with the big club?

Waiver thing for me.

 

[Gurglesons]

I haven't seen much of Poehling, but if he has a little skill, wouldn't it make more sense to give to give him bigger minutes in WBS vs. 4th line and/or press box duty in the NHL? Or is this just a waiver thing that everyone has him penciled in with the big club?

He's 23. This is it. If he can't make it work this year he's probably a career AHLer.



Some highlights from last year which was his first real "season".

The big thing I think with him is he has an actual shot we can use on L4.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

To this day I don't get the 2 year deal for Carter unless there was a handshake agreement for him to come here. In any event he can still be a ok 3rd or 4th line forward if his minutes are lower.

I think a lot of it has to do with his connection with Hextall from LA.
That's the only Hex move I would say looks emotionally driven.

Plus at the time it was made, Carter was on a hot streak. Maybe he wanted to exploit the fact that Carter was in good spirits, to try and get him to re-sign before he changes his mind and retires in the summer? If that's the case, then that's Hex trying to preserve his cheap solid center depth.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think a lot of it has to do with his connection with Hextall from LA.
That's the only Hex move I would say looks emotionally driven.

Plus at the time it was made, Carter was on a hot streak. Maybe he wanted to exploit the fact that Carter was in good spirits, to try and get him to re-sign before he changes his mind and retires in the summer?

I think the reality is the staff like him and he's produced here.

This organization has shown they are big on public models for their player evaluation since Hextall took over.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think the reality is the staff like him and he's produced here.

This organization has shown they are big on public models for their player evaluation since Hextall took over.

All of it plays into it. Carter's really respected in the room. He brings a calmness and sets a good example for the younger guys.

 

[Gurglesons]

All of it plays into it. Carter's really respected in the room. He brings a calmness and sets a good example for the younger guys.

I think a lot of people are down on Carter because of advanced stats. His raw ones make him easily worth 3 million.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think a lot of people are down on Carter because of advanced stats. His raw ones make him easily worth 3 million.

If he's even like 20% better defensively then he can come close to honouring 3.25. I could see him playing like 2.5 pretty easily, especially given his PK role.
Regardless, it's not the anchor people claim it is.

 

[dogthateats]

I am down on him from watching him with the eye-test. I am not done with him though. I still think he is an above average 3C. Not a fan of his contract though.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I don't care about the cap hit on Carter's deal at all.

I care that his spot is sealed and is again next season, too. And that people say things like "he MUST have his minutes reduced!" (which is true) but also that he sorta kinda got signed to play 3C and all that comes with that so...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't care about the cap hit on Carter's deal at all.

I care that his spot is sealed and is again next season, too. And that people say things like "he MUST have his minutes reduced!" (which is true) but also that he sorta kinda got signed to play 3C and all that comes with that so...

His issue with his usage wasn't he was getting 3C usage, it's that he was playing like 19 minutes a night for half of the season when Malkin was out.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't care about the cap hit on Carter's deal at all.

I care that his spot is sealed and is again next season, too. And that people say things like "he MUST have his minutes reduced!" (which is true) but also that he sorta kinda got signed to play 3C and all that comes with that so...

He played nearly a minute more than he did the previous year for us last season.

We are paying Carter and Blueger a combined 5 million. If Blueger wasn't here the Carter deal looks a lot less egregious tbh.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

His issue with his usage wasn't he was getting 3C usage, it's that he was playing like 19 minutes a night for half of the season when Malkin was out.

That absolutely plays into it. And we all hope he won't have to do that this year. But some elevated minutes are part of the deal... especially on this team. His usage went down second half of the year but he still had some spikes into the 18ish minute range. It's going to be tricky to balance his TOI considering what the team seems to expect from him. Sullivan has to figure that one out.

I'm willing to make accommodations for second half of the year when it comes to some things. Whole team looked bad or at least the secondary scoring did. No matter how we wanna dance around it though... a mid-year extension was a miscue.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jarry looks like he got veneers in the camp pictures lol.

That absolutely plays into it. And we all hope he won't have to do that this year. But some elevated minutes are part of the deal... especially on this team. His usage went down second half of the year but he still had some spikes into the 18ish minute range. It's going to be tricky to balance his TOI considering what the team seems to expect from him. Sullivan has to figure that one out.

I'm willing to make accommodations for second half of the year when it comes to some things. Whole team looked bad or at least the secondary scoring did. No matter how we wanna dance around it though... a mid-year extension was a miscue.

I agree with this, but it's like the people that harp on us not taking Forsberg in 2022. This is the reality. Just work with it. And realistically Carter has played at a 3 mil rate through his two years here.

People can say "Statsny only got a mil plus" or whatever, but we played that game in 17-18 and started the season with McKegg and Rowney as our bottom six Cs.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I agree with this, but it's like the people that harp on us not taking Forsberg in 2022. This is the reality. Just work with it. And realistically Carter has played at a 3 mil rate through his two years here.

Hopefully he plays like that for two more.

 

[Peat]

His issue with his usage wasn't he was getting 3C usage, it's that he was playing like 19 minutes a night for half of the season when Malkin was out.

That's part and parcel of 3C duty though. A somewhat extreme example, but a 3C should expect to slide into the top 6 no worries when there's an injury and you look at our top six Cs injury history and gotta think 20 games missed combined is getting off okay.



I would like to wait and see. His personal production last year was pretty banging and he'll 100% justify himself as a 3C if he does it again. What happened on the scoreboard on his watch in the second half of the year was pretty minging and he'll 100% be a giant problem if that's the new norm. The fact he looked a step slow worries me too, but even if that's permanent he is smart enough he can adjust.

So wait and see. Without seeing where his energy levels, skating, and reading of the game is we don't know what he's going to be. I wish he wasn't so cemented in at that level of certainty but that doesn't change the reasons for optimism.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Also... pixies just told me to go with the flow and don't sweat things so much.

That's funny.