Prospect Info: Penguins #16 Prospect

[Malkinstheman]

#1 Samuel Poulin (35.6%) (New)
#2 Calen Addison (50%) (+2)
#3 POJ (44%) (New)
#4 Filip Hallander (60.4%) (+1)
#5 Kasper Bjorkqvist (43.2%) (+3)
#6 Nathan Legare (53.2%) (New)
#7 Jordy Bellerive (45.2%) (-4)
#8 Justin Almeida (76.6%) (+6)
#9 Sam Miletic (24.7%) (+6)
#10 Sam Lafferty (33.9%) (+7)
#11 Adam Johnson (36.4%) (+1)
#12 Jan Drozg (37.5%) (+6)
#13 Anthony Angello (31.3%) (-3)
#14 Niclas Almari (44.4%) (-6)
#15 Emil Larmi (33.3%) (NEW)

Click to read more...

 

[Andy99]

I don’t know where to place these other prospects but I guess I’m going with the one who I think has the most skill and has a chance to be a top 9 forward, and that’s Lucchini...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Pavlychev seems to have dropped precipitously and I don't quite understand why. He was ranked our #3 prospect in the PG in January (with input from the org, I assume):

Dave Molinari: Kasper Bjorkvist takes top spot in Penguins' prospects breakdown

I realize his production tapered off, we had a draft since then, and our rankings seldom line up cleanly with the media/team, but a pretty steep drop nonetheless.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Pavlychev seems to have dropped precipitously and I don't quite understand why. He was ranked our #3 prospect in the PG in January (with input from the org, I assume):

Dave Molinari: Kasper Bjorkvist takes top spot in Penguins' prospects breakdown

I realize his production tapered off, we had a draft since then, and our rankings seldom line up cleanly with the media/team, but a pretty steep drop nonetheless.

Because pushback doesn't factor in to our rankings.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

Phillips

 

[Zero Pucks]

Pavlychev seems to have dropped precipitously and I don't quite understand why. He was ranked our #3 prospect in the PG in January (with input from the org, I assume):

Dave Molinari: Kasper Bjorkvist takes top spot in Penguins' prospects breakdown

I realize his production tapered off, we had a draft since then, and our rankings seldom line up cleanly with the media/team, but a pretty steep drop nonetheless.

Me either. You can't make sense out of this board sometimes. It's had very odd obsessions with one dimensional players like Tiffels because he was really fast and Lindo because he was a big guy, even though they never proved to be capable of doing much in the lesser leagues. You would think there would be at least some excitement for a 6.08 beast that's putting together a solid college career.

 

[888 98 twins]

It feels like Pavlychev has been in our system for like twice as long as he actually has.

 

[cygnus47]

Me either. You can't make sense out of this board sometimes. It's had very odd obsessions with one dimensional players like Tiffels because he was really fast and Lindo because he was a big guy, even though they never proved to be capable of doing much in the lesser leagues. You would think there would be at least some excitement for a 6.08 beast that's putting together a solid college career.

I reckon Bjorkvist is overrated in these polls by the same measure, but how excited should people get about guys whose ceiling is big bottom 6 grinder in a league that's getting faster? People that were still excited about Lindo after his draft +1 year were nuts. If you can't produce in college at 21 or juniors at 18 your production almost certainly isn't going to translate.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I reckon Bjorkvist is overrated in these polls by the same measure, but how excited should people get about guys whose ceiling is big bottom 6 grinder in a league that's getting faster? People that were still excited about Lindo after his draft +1 year were nuts. If you can't produce in college at 21 or juniors at 18 your production almost certainly isn't going to translate.

But he's like Santa With Muscles and our Xmas is only a few months away fam

 

[Jacob]

Lucchini based on his impressive start in the AHL.

 

[Shady Machine]

Pavlychev seems to have dropped precipitously and I don't quite understand why. He was ranked our #3 prospect in the PG in January (with input from the org, I assume):

Dave Molinari: Kasper Bjorkvist takes top spot in Penguins' prospects breakdown

I realize his production tapered off, we had a draft since then, and our rankings seldom line up cleanly with the media/team, but a pretty steep drop nonetheless.

I lot of it is shiny new toy syndrome. Longer term prospects tend to get lost in our views during the time between when they are drafted and before they turn pro. He should be higher on the list IMO.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I lot of it is shiny new toy syndrome. Longer term prospects tend to get lost in our views during the time between when they are drafted and before they turn pro. He should be higher on the list IMO.

Probably. I mean, I can't speak with authority here because I haven't seen the kid outside of clips but with his frame, his coach gushing over his defense and physicality, and recent offensive breakout year...there's a lot to be excited about there. He reportedly even skates well for a skyscraper.

 

[Peat]

Re Pavlychev -

First off, that PG article's pretty much the only one that's had Pavlychev that high that I can recall in the last year or so - I don't think he was even in the top 20 last year here, only just entered Pensburgh's 25 under 25 this year (and in the 20s), wasn't in Puckprose's top 10 for us this year, didn't even get mentioned in Pronman's write up of us last year... he's 10th in Haase's write-up this summer, that's the highest I've seen him anywhere else. And while people assumed the org had input into Molinari's list due to Guerin's quotes, we don't know for sure. This isn't like Bjorkqvist where we've heard time and time again that the org want to have his babies, or even Lafferty where there's tons of direct quotes about how much he impressed them.

Second and more crucial to me - Pavlychev is one of the most watched Pens prospects and by and large, the majority opinion seems to be that his ceiling is as a 4th liner.

At which point, why get excited over a possible 4C who's a year away from turning pro (which mightn't even be with us) when we've got a bunch of guys who are turning pro who have higher ceilings? The freak factor is interesting, it gives him a high floor, but not so much as to ignore the general consensus over a low ceiling.

If he should be higher, who should he be in over? The vast majority of that list have either made a case in pro hockey already or put up some gaudy junior numbers. Putting Pavlychev's one strong college season above them is a big leap imo. The only two where I think there's a half-decent argument is Almari and Drozg.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Re Pavlychev -

First off, that PG article's pretty much the only one that's had Pavlychev that high that I can recall in the last year or so - I don't think he was even in the top 20 last year here, only just entered Pensburgh's 25 under 25 this year (and in the 20s), wasn't in Puckprose's top 10 for us this year, didn't even get mentioned in Pronman's write up of us last year... he's 10th in Haase's write-up this summer, that's the highest I've seen him anywhere else. And while people assumed the org had input into Molinari's list due to Guerin's quotes, we don't know for sure. This isn't like Bjorkqvist where we've heard time and time again that the org want to have his babies, or even Lafferty where there's tons of direct quotes about how much he impressed them.

Second and more crucial to me - Pavlychev is one of the most watched Pens prospects and by and large, the majority opinion seems to be that his ceiling is as a 4th liner.

At which point, why get excited over a possible 4C who's a year away from turning pro (which mightn't even be with us) when we've got a bunch of guys who are turning pro who have higher ceilings? The freak factor is interesting, it gives him a high floor, but not so much as to ignore the general consensus over a low ceiling.

If he should be higher, who should he be in over? The vast majority of that list have either made a case in pro hockey already or put up some gaudy junior numbers. Putting Pavlychev's one strong college season above them is a big leap imo. The only two where I think there's a half-decent argument is Almari and Drozg.

We do have to put more emphasis on pro success, but I don't put much (if any) stock in fanblog rankings. Pronman's regularly off in his own world.

Haase and the PG are the most reputable local sources and they both had him top 10 prior to our new acquisitions. I think you can make a good case for him being #12 in our rankings after Johnson based on upside alone - he may only be a 4th liner, but a physical 6'8" 4th line shutdown center is a pretty formidable one if he pans out. Brian Boyle is sort of the ideal here.

 

[Peat]

We do have to put more emphasis on pro success, but I don't put much (if any) stock in fanblog rankings. Pronman's regularly off in his own world.

Haase and the PG are the most reputable local sources and they both had him top 10 prior to our new acquisitions. I think you can make a good case for him being #12 in our rankings after Johnson based on upside alone - he may only be a 4th liner, but a physical 6'8" 4th line shutdown center is a pretty formidable one if he pans out. Brian Boyle is sort of the ideal here.

I can only strenuously disagree with the notion that Haase and Molinari are the sole reputable voices here.

And why should Pavlychev be ahead of Angello when Angello is only 3 inches smaller and 15 lbs lighter, but skates a *lot* faster, had a better college career, and had a strong rookie AHL campaign in terms of goalscoring? I'm going for the low hanging fruit here, but those two are very comparable in terms of being big men who skate well, except that Angello has done it better every step of the way and is further along.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I can only strenuously disagree with the notion that Haase and Molinari are the sole reputable voices here.

And why should Pavlychev be ahead of Angello when Angello is only 3 inches smaller and 15 lbs lighter, but skates a *lot* faster, had a better college career, and had a strong rookie AHL campaign in terms of goalscoring? I'm going for the low hanging fruit here, but those two are very comparable in terms of being big men who skate well, except that Angello has done it better every step of the way and is further along.

I think it's fair to say that the ECAC isn't exactly the Big 10 in terms of college competition.

That, and I haven't heard much about Angello's defense, whereas it seems to be Pavlychev's calling card with the offense being a bonus. Gadowsky gushes about his shutdown ability.

 

[Shady Machine]

I should probably watch the players more, but my thought here is that Pavlychev should be higher on the list, but I can't definitively tell you who he deserves to be higher than. That said, I prioritize natural centers that translate to the pros as centers, particularly in this prospect pool. Assuming he is a center in the pros, that puts him higher on the list as centers are more valuable than wingers.

I don't think he's top 10 given the upside of the others on that list, but I'd put him right after Johnson. That might be as much about my lack of knowledge of the next prospects more than anything.

 

[wej20]

I can only strenuously disagree with the notion that Haase and Molinari are the sole reputable voices here.

And why should Pavlychev be ahead of Angello when Angello is only 3 inches smaller and 15 lbs lighter, but skates a *lot* faster, had a better college career, and had a strong rookie AHL campaign in terms of goalscoring? I'm going for the low hanging fruit here, but those two are very comparable in terms of being big men who skate well, except that Angello has done it better every step of the way and is further along.

and Angello was more consistent in college, Pavlychev's numbers in his first 2 seasons weren't that of a prospect who would earn an ELC (obviously being 6'8 even with average numbers he'd earn an ELC).

 

[Andy99]

and Angello was more consistent in college, Pavlychev's numbers in his first 2 seasons weren't that of a prospect who would earn an ELC (obviously being 6'8 even with average numbers he'd earn an ELC).

Yep, he showed progress last year for the first time towards being a NHL player but still has a ways to go....that's why I don't think he should be this high...Lucchini is much closer to NHL level imo and should be higher than Pavs...

 

[SprootsMasterFlex]

Robert Dome for me.

 

[Jacob]

Pavlychev is intriguing but I think he’s at the very best a 4th liner and probably more likely not even an NHLer.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Some people are higher on Pavlychev, others see little more than size.

I don't see a ceiling beyond 4th liner in the NHL, personally, so I've never had him in my top 10. Pavlychev has pretty consistently been in the 15-20 range for me, peaking when our pool was weakest and shirking back when it gets higher upside prospects added to it. That's just how it goes with raw 7th round picks who were going to take eons to develop even in the best of circumstances.

I definitely think the odds of him making the NHL are higher than they were a year ago and he has the opportunity to make great strides this year, but last year was also the first time his stat line started to reflect the practice reports. We're talking about a forward who had a 22 points in 58 games USHL season after being drafted (and it wasn't his first year in the league), so it's pretty stunning that we're still talking about him at all. This is his best chance to make a push up the rankings as his stat line last year could have been a one year blip (29 points sounds great but you also have to remember Penn State had 5 guys with 37+).

 

[Peat]

I think it's fair to say that the ECAC isn't exactly the Big 10 in terms of college competition.

That, and I haven't heard much about Angello's defense, whereas it seems to be Pavlychev's calling card with the offense being a bonus. Gadowsky gushes about his shutdown ability.

I don't think the difference in terms of NCAA conference adequately explains how Pavlychev took 3 seasons to put together a 20+ season, something Angello managed from the get-go, particularly when you consider Pavlychev was also on a far better team in terms of offensive support (he wasn't even top 5 in Penn's scorers last season).

And I really don't think it explains how Angello was a better USHL scorer and didn't need 4 years in college.

Now, fair enough if the defence makes a big difference to you and you think it means what he's doing will translate more; just that personally, it seems odd to hold that one point as being a bigger deal than the other guy being nearer to fulfilling his potential and having shown more potential all the way through.

In any case though, that's why Pavlychev is that low.

I should probably watch the players more, but my thought here is that Pavlychev should be higher on the list, but I can't definitively tell you who he deserves to be higher than. That said, I prioritize natural centers that translate to the pros as centers, particularly in this prospect pool. Assuming he is a center in the pros, that puts him higher on the list as centers are more valuable than wingers.

I don't think he's top 10 given the upside of the others on that list, but I'd put him right after Johnson. That might be as much about my lack of knowledge of the next prospects more than anything.

Not like anyone else is when making their judgments Besides, it seems to be pretty difficult. Obviously over in Eurotrashtopia I have no idea how many NCAA/CHL games are getting shown on TV, but I never got the impression it was that many and it's certainly pretty difficult to find them on less official sources.

Also - mostly academically - but how are you valuing a possible 4C vs a possible 3W vs Dmen in general?

I definitely think the odds of him making the NHL are higher than they were a year ago and he has the opportunity to make great strides this year, but last year was also the first time his stat line started to reflect the practice reports. We're talking about a forward who had a 22 points in 58 games USHL season after being drafted (and it wasn't his first year in the league), so it's pretty stunning that we're still talking about him at all. This is his best chance to make a push up the rankings as his stat line last year could have been a one year blip (29 points sounds great but you also have to remember Penn State had 5 guys with 37+).

Just on this point - I was slightly surprised to see that Penn State's team will be mostly staying together. Berger's the only one of the 6 highest scoring forwards to leave (and he was 6th, tied with Pavs); that's not necessarily a good thing for Pavlychev, it's not like the door's opened for him to have more responsibilities. Could be a good thing if he forces his way up and gets to play with the talent mind. Two of their four highest scoring D have left though; it'll be nice if Phillips gets to transfer there immediately.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This is his best chance to make a push up the rankings as his stat line last year could have been a one year blip (29 points sounds great but you also have to remember Penn State had 5 guys with 37+).

This is frequently ignored. Penn State plays a balls to the walls, run and gun style. They wanna go. Point totals get inflated.

To put it like this: Evan Barratt is the team’s best player and also the best NHL prospect (Limoges is solid as well)... and it’s not like he’s a surefire star for the Hawks down the road.....in terms of on-ice performance there is a major gap between them and Pavs. It’s not particularly close. I thought Chase Berger, who’s on an AHL deal with us for next season, was a better player last year as well.

I’m not tryna rip on him, he’s a decent college player, but I think Pavs is likely an AHLer with a 4th line ceiling. Nothing wrong with getting a guy in the 7th round with a chance to play one day but he’s not some underrated prospect imo.

 

[Zero Pucks]

Re Pavlychev -

First off, that PG article's pretty much the only one that's had Pavlychev that high that I can recall in the last year or so - I don't think he was even in the top 20 last year here, only just entered Pensburgh's 25 under 25 this year (and in the 20s), wasn't in Puckprose's top 10 for us this year, didn't even get mentioned in Pronman's write up of us last year... he's 10th in Haase's write-up this summer, that's the highest I've seen him anywhere else. And while people assumed the org had input into Molinari's list due to Guerin's quotes, we don't know for sure. This isn't like Bjorkqvist where we've heard time and time again that the org want to have his babies, or even Lafferty where there's tons of direct quotes about how much he impressed them.

Second and more crucial to me - Pavlychev is one of the most watched Pens prospects and by and large, the majority opinion seems to be that his ceiling is as a 4th liner.

At which point, why get excited over a possible 4C who's a year away from turning pro (which mightn't even be with us) when we've got a bunch of guys who are turning pro who have higher ceilings? The freak factor is interesting, it gives him a high floor, but not so much as to ignore the general consensus over a low ceiling.

If he should be higher, who should he be in over? The vast majority of that list have either made a case in pro hockey already or put up some gaudy junior numbers. Putting Pavlychev's one strong college season above them is a big leap imo. The only two where I think there's a half-decent argument is Almari and Drozg.

Why get excited about a 4C? After watching Craig Adams botch that role for years and then seeing Cullen step into beautifully makes me appreciate it a little more than usual now I guess. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that role if you can excel in it. And I think someone like Pavlychev could. It's not like the most players that are left have much more upside than that anyways and probably much less of a chance of many it into the pros. Phillips still has a decent amount of upside but his development has gone off the rails, he's a pretty big long shot at this point in time.