Prospect Info: Penguins #16 Prospect

Who's our #16 Prospect?


  • Total voters
    60
  • Poll closed .

Zero Pucks

Size matters
May 17, 2009
4,586
298
I reckon Bjorkvist is overrated in these polls by the same measure, but how excited should people get about guys whose ceiling is big bottom 6 grinder in a league that's getting faster? People that were still excited about Lindo after his draft +1 year were nuts. If you can't produce in college at 21 or juniors at 18 your production almost certainly isn't going to translate.
I think at the vest worst Bjorkvist is a Rust clone. I think/hope he can be more physical and more offensively consistent though. So I think some of the hype is justified. I do think some of the workout crap we're given to watch is overdone. It reminds me of Adam Payerl and how many times we had to be reminded of his body fat percentage.
 

Peat

Registered User
Jun 14, 2016
29,292
25,206
Why get excited about a 4C? After watching Craig Adams botch that role for years and then seeing Cullen step into beautifully makes me appreciate it a little more than usual now I guess. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that role if you can excel in it. And I think someone like Pavlychev could. It's not like the most players that are left have much more upside than that anyways and probably much less of a chance of many it into the pros. Phillips still has a decent amount of upside but his development has gone off the rails, he's a pretty big long shot at this point in time.

The rest of the sentence there was important - I'm all for people getting excited about the prospect of good bottom 6ers and do so myself, but in terms of context when compared to a bunch of guys who could be more, that's when I raise an eyebrow. And given people were talking about him being higher, they're not comparing him to who's left either. Compared to who's left now, I get people being high on Pavlychev... the idea he's fallen a long way, not so much.

Even then - Lucchini does seem to have some possible top 9 potential based on his start in the AHL, Phillips is as you say (but the upside is there), Marino probably has a much potential as a bottom pairing D as Pavlychev has a 4C albeit with less freak factor, I like Airola's boom or bust factor and I think based on some of the scouting reports, we could be sleeping on the Juddernaut, which brings me onto...

I lot of it is shiny new toy syndrome. Longer term prospects tend to get lost in our views during the time between when they are drafted and before they turn pro. He should be higher on the list IMO.

I actually think we're seeing the opposite of shiny toy syndrome at this point. Maybe we saw it with Poulin/POJ/Legare (not that anyone left on the board here should be anywhere near them), but after Legare we went 9 spots without voting in a new guy (only one of them had been in the org for under a year). We had 3 members of HPK's cup winning team available to us to pick, and we picked the guy with the least impressive season first. Why? Being the guy who's been here the longest probably does have something to do with it. Marino and Lucchini's college careers compare strongly to Pavlychev, but he'll be going first.
 

SHOOTANDSCORE

Eeny Meeny Miny Moe
Sep 25, 2005
10,952
4,675
Re Pavlychev -

First off, that PG article's pretty much the only one that's had Pavlychev that high that I can recall in the last year or so - I don't think he was even in the top 20 last year here, only just entered Pensburgh's 25 under 25 this year (and in the 20s), wasn't in Puckprose's top 10 for us this year, didn't even get mentioned in Pronman's write up of us last year... he's 10th in Haase's write-up this summer, that's the highest I've seen him anywhere else. And while people assumed the org had input into Molinari's list due to Guerin's quotes, we don't know for sure. This isn't like Bjorkqvist where we've heard time and time again that the org want to have his babies, or even Lafferty where there's tons of direct quotes about how much he impressed them.

Second and more crucial to me - Pavlychev is one of the most watched Pens prospects and by and large, the majority opinion seems to be that his ceiling is as a 4th liner.

At which point, why get excited over a possible 4C who's a year away from turning pro (which mightn't even be with us) when we've got a bunch of guys who are turning pro who have higher ceilings? The freak factor is interesting, it gives him a high floor, but not so much as to ignore the general consensus over a low ceiling.

If he should be higher, who should he be in over? The vast majority of that list have either made a case in pro hockey already or put up some gaudy junior numbers. Putting Pavlychev's one strong college season above them is a big leap imo. The only two where I think there's a half-decent argument is Almari and Drozg.
This is a good write up of why I haven't voted for him yet. He has the potential to jump up the list if he has a good season and actually signs with the Pens but he's in limbo right now.

Also regarding the Angello discussion after this post, FWIW I recall reading that he's good defensively.
 
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Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
76,530
21,073
I don't think the difference in terms of NCAA conference adequately explains how Pavlychev took 3 seasons to put together a 20+ season, something Angello managed from the get-go, particularly when you consider Pavlychev was also on a far better team in terms of offensive support (he wasn't even top 5 in Penn's scorers last season).

Angelo was better throughout college, true, but the main reason we're talking about Pavs is the breakout offense that's now added to his shutdown defense and physical play.

We're talking about a 6'8" guy. Fair to say there's never been a player that size who had every element of his game figured out a year or two after being drafted.

Now, fair enough if the defence makes a big difference to you and you think it means what he's doing will translate more; just that personally, it seems odd to hold that one point as being a bigger deal than the other guy being nearer to fulfilling his potential and having shown more potential all the way through.

That's a pretty fair assessment. A physical shutdown center generally has more value than a bottom 6 banger on the wing IMHO.

Either way, its splitting hairs over one spot in the rankings. It'd be great to see both of them wreaking havoc on the 4th someday.
 
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SEALBound

Fancy Gina Carano
Sponsor
Jun 13, 2010
40,104
18,215
I reckon Bjorkvist is overrated in these polls by the same measure, but how excited should people get about guys whose ceiling is big bottom 6 grinder in a league that's getting faster? People that were still excited about Lindo after his draft +1 year were nuts. If you can't produce in college at 21 or juniors at 18 your production almost certainly isn't going to translate.

If you could get a 21yo Patric Hornqvist on this team, would you?

The league getting faster isnt purely about top foot speed.
 

Peat

Registered User
Jun 14, 2016
29,292
25,206
Angelo was better throughout college, true, but the main reason we're talking about Pavs is the breakout offense that's now added to his shutdown defense and physical play.

We're talking about a 6'8" guy. Fair to say there's never been a player that size who had every element of his game figured out a year or two after being drafted.

That's a pretty fair assessment. A physical shutdown center generally has more value than a bottom 6 banger on the wing IMHO.

Either way, its splitting hairs over one spot in the rankings. It'd be great to see both of them wreaking havoc on the 4th someday.

I like splitting hairs - which is why I have to point out it would be 3 places :laugh:

I guess my thing about Pavlychev's offence breakout is there's no guarantee it translates - not when it's come so late and when there's live questions about who's driving the bus there. It's great that it's happened, but when comparing him to guys who've consistently produced and who have shown it can translate to a pro game?

Of course being 6'8" means he was always going to be a slow developer - but Angello was never going to be a quick developer himself with his size, which makes him a good comparison.
 
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cygnus47

Registered User
Sep 14, 2013
7,510
2,594
If you could get a 21yo Patric Hornqvist on this team, would you?

The league getting faster isnt purely about top foot speed.

I mean, that's his absolute ceiling yes, but there are a lot of fit, strong college players that never get good enough to score in the NHL. Guys rarely increase their scoring when they get into harder leagues. Hornqvist managed 35 points in 49 games in his equivalent year in the AHL. We'll see if that works out for Bjorkvist. I hope it does, but odds aren't in his favour.
 

cygnus47

Registered User
Sep 14, 2013
7,510
2,594
I think at the vest worst Bjorkvist is a Rust clone. I think/hope he can be more physical and more offensively consistent though. So I think some of the hype is justified. I do think some of the workout crap we're given to watch is overdone. It reminds me of Adam Payerl and how many times we had to be reminded of his body fat percentage.

His stat line looks similar, so I'd say that's probably a reasonable projection if not slightly on the hopeful side. Rust being a 30-50 point guy depending on how injured he gets every year is better than was expected. Also suggests a reasonable timeline, it took Rust another 2-3 years older than Bjorkvist is now to become an NHL fixture. Unless JR gets his shit together we're probably waning into irrelevance at that point.
 

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