Part XVIII: Phoenix -- Imminence Front

[Killion]

Do you think that Hocking knew that the "transaction cost" with Hulsizer was to be $100 million before he submitted his study?

No, I dont. Your talking civic malfeasance of the worst kind. Serious charges Whileee.

 

[Dado]

You're right - it's possible. But I doubt any report was deep sixed. And, I doubt the staff would misrepresent that there was only one report.

IMO, you're drawing black and white lines where gray ones are more appropriate. Staff generally know what their bosses want to hear. And they generally give them just that, especially in beaureacratic settings (big companies, gov't, etc).

If there was a failure here, it's a common systemic one. Starting with the leadership not making clear they wanted the "real" numbers (and its entirely possible they didn't "really" want them, given earlier unanimous votes), and those lower down the food chain not having the good sense to at least alert someone (verbally, around the water cooler) that the "real" numbers were vastly different than the "official" numbers, or that they should ask for the "second set of books" numbers.

All IMO, etc.

 

[Dado]

No, I dont. Your talking civic malfeasance of the worst kind. Serious charges Whileee.

Well...there's an subtle yet obvious difference between saying to the consultant...

"Make it work out to $100M" (malfeasance)

and...

"Do you think there'd be enough traffic to warrant a $100M valuation?" (nothing wrong, yet same bottom-line message)

After all, the difference between a successful consultant and an unsuccessful one is the ability to accurately read the subtext.

 

[CasualFan]

I guess it is now safe to say that tomorrow night's live circus event (COG council) will be worth watching?

I think you are going off the deep end. The Agenda Item is simply dissolving the escrow account established in the Amended MUDA. It has nothing to do with revising any element of the Hulsizer deal.

It should be entirely uneventful.

 

[Dado]

It should be entirely uneventful.

If the "pay us by ASG" deadline is true, wouldn't that then imply this chapter is closed, then?

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

This is a bit OT, but has anyone seen the "Elaine Scruggs" twitter account?

Recent tweets include:

I want to ensure Glendale residents that we're doing everything possible to save the Coyotes. This includes negligence, deceit and fraud.

Under parking agreement, no car parked at westgate can exceed 7 mexican passengers. Violators will be fined 100 mill.

1$ beer night was a huge success. We increased attendance by 700 fans with only 3 drinking and driving related deaths.

It's crucial that we cut spending on policing and teaching to help Hulsizer re-sign Sami Lepisto. He is a vital member of our community.

I am confident that our Phoenix Coyotes baseball team will win the Superbowl this year.

http://twitter.com/#!/MayorScruggs

 

[Killion]

If the "pay us by ASG" deadline is true, wouldn't that then imply this chapter is closed, then?

That was from a tweeter on twitter outta Winnipeg Dado. Thankfully, Fugu wiped the link & subsequent 4 pages of posts that followed. Carry on.

 

[Whileee]

No, I dont. Your talking civic malfeasance of the worst kind. Serious charges Whileee.

I am not sure what happened. However, based on publicly available information and statements, here is the sequence of events.

Walker is commissioned to conduct a study of future parking revenues, presumably to guide negotiations with Hulsizer vis-a-vis an up-front payment for rights to future parking revenues. His assessment suggests that the net present value of future parking revenues falls well short of $100 million. Presumably, the result of this should have been that Glendale would pay up-front to Hulsizer the net present value based on Walker's estimates (even the most optimistic). However, instead of basing the lease on that, a second parking report was commissioned from Hocking, who was not an expert in the field and had been on retainer with the City of Glendale for a number of years. His estimate concludes that the net present value is just over $100 million, which was the amount that was included in the lease agreement as the up-front payment to Hulsizer. I think that the sequence leads to a fair conclusion that this amount was fixed a priori, and not based on the parking studies. That view seems supported in the following item in an article by Rebekah Sanders (bold is mine):

The gist of the conversation, Martinez said, was "this is the money we needed in order to complete the transaction."

"I don't remember seeing any actual analysis itself," he said.

Martinez said the discussion with staff was sufficient for him to vote for the deal.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/community/...le-council-parking-studies.html#ixzz1Bz4HN0Br

I suppose that everyone can make their own conclusions about who knew what and when.

 

[RR]

That was from a tweeter on twitter outta Winnipeg Dado. Thankfully, Fugu wiped the link & subsequent 4 pages of posts that followed. Carry on.

Probably the same clown who started the Scruggs twitter account Riot just shared with all of us.

 

[CBJ goalie]

We're closing in on a thousand posts again, so I'd like to propose my idea again for the next thread title:
(F)lease me once, shame on me - (F)lease me twice, shame on thee

 

[Coach]

We're closing in on a thousand posts again, so I'd like to propose my idea again for the next thread title:
(F)lease me once, shame on me - (F)lease me twice, shame on thee

According to the first post in this thread. The title for the next thread is already taken.
Part XIX is reserved for kdb's 19th Nervous Breakdown.

 

[Fugu]

We're closing in on a thousand posts again, so I'd like to propose my idea again for the next thread title:
(F)lease me once, shame on me - (F)lease me twice, shame on thee

According to the first post in this thread. The title for the next thread is already taken.
Part XIX is reserved for kdb's 19th Nervous Breakdown.

Yes, but do stick around. Given how we're two threads past the last time things were done..... getting to XX should be no problem.

Hmmm.... Dos Equis and Thirsty in the Desert?


Cheap beer nights? There's a theme in here somewhere.

 

[Alan Jackson]

Considering all that's going on, does anybody else think this line in the description for the NHL Guardian "Coyote" is hilarious?

"The Coyote is very adaptable; he easily survives and even thrives in 130-degree heat as well as -60 degree cold."

http://coyotes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=550452&cmpid=rss-News in English

Is the NHL taking the piss?

 

[Killion]

Well...there's a subtle yet obvious difference between saying to the consultant...

"Make it work out to $100M" (malfeasance)

"Do you think there'd be enough traffic to warrant a $100M valuation?" (nothing wrong, yet same bottom-line message)

After all, the difference between a successful consultant and an unsuccessful one is the ability to accurately read the subtext.

His (Walker) estimate concludes that the net present value is just over $100 million, which was the amount that was included in the lease agreement as the up-front payment to Hulsizer. I think that the sequence leads to a fair conclusion that this amount was fixed a priori, and not based on the parking studies.

Hocking read his client and obviously provided them with what they wanted to hear & read. Not a bad gig. $84,000 a year plus expenses, working from home. One eye on the flatscreen, the other on the infiniti pool. The thing is, its going to be tough, even taking into account Martinez's & others "recollections" to prove malfeasance. The timing, whatever verbiage used & ultimately the Hocking Report] delivered in shades of gray. Frankly, I think some members of Council & the Mayor are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, shared by Beasley, Tindall & others at city hall. From the luxury of his 3500sq ft Frank Lloyd Wright inspired split level desertscaped casa manana, Mr.Hocking, if thats even his real name, supplies whatever documentation is required on a project-project basis. Facts to fit the fiction, fiction to fit the facts.

Edit note; Thanks Whileee.

 

[PitbulI]

What I would like to see in the next council meeting is for someone to ask real questions.

Where is this money coming from?
How in the past few years could you estimate that the parking will pay for the bond?
Has anyone asked the season ticket holders about how parking would affect them?
Has anyone asked businesses in the Westgate area what the Coyotes mean to them?

These peoples opinions would be nice to have. Who cares about the coyotes? Please step up and tell us what they mean to you.

 

[Whileee]

Walker read his client and obviously provided them with what they wanted to hear & read. Not a bad gig. $84,000 a year plus expenses, working from home. One eye on the flatscreen, the other on the infiniti pool. The thing is, its going to be tough, even taking into account Martinez's & others "recollections" to prove malfeasance. The timing, whatever verbiage used & ultimately the Walker report delivered in shades of gray. Frankly, I think some members of Council & the Mayor are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, shared by Beasley, Tindall & others at city hall. From the luxury of his 3500sq ft Frank Lloyd Wright inspired split level desertscaped casa manana, Mr. Walker, if thats even his real name, supplies whatever documentation is required on a project-project basis. Facts to fit the fiction, fiction to fit the facts.

Are you trying to make me feel better, Killion?

I think you mean Hocking, instead of Walker in the above post. Walker is the guy who had his extensive parking report used by the COG to line the bottoms of their myna bird cages.

 

[Whileee]

What I would like to see in the next council meeting is for someone to ask real questions.

Where is this money coming from?
How in the past few years could you estimate that the parking will pay for the bond?
Has anyone asked the season ticket holders about how parking would affect them?
Has anyone asked businesses in the Westgate area what the Coyotes mean to them?

These peoples opinions would be nice to have. Who cares about the coyotes? Please step up and tell us what they mean to you.

Why would they ask those questions at the council meeting tomorrow? The lease agreement isn't on the city council agenda.

 

[Hawker14]

To generalize the Glendale council agenda item #14 tomorrow night:

i) Of the $25m in the parking agreement escrow - $12.5m is going to Glendale, and $12.5m to Credit Suisse (I'm speculating it's to pay down some of Ellman's debt with them).

ii) The Westgate development is to become a C.F.D., however Ellman has to agree to any assessments being levied.

iii) The city will have the right to charge for parking on Westgate lots during Arena Events.

iv) The city will have the right to charge for advertising on the parking lots it owns amongst Westgate.

v) Ellman is acquiring any claims the city has, or will have in the future against the Arena Operator or team, that affect Westgate.

vi) Ellman will have to pay $1m in '17, and another $1m in '18, if another 100,000 sq ft isn't developed at Westgate by then.

vii) The maximum assessment the CFD can collect from Westgate starts at $1,079,545 in '11 and increasing to $2,209,190 in '40.

viii) Ellman can require, if in the next seven years there is sufficient development at Westgate to warrant it, the City to construct and pay for a City-owned multi-story garage for 1,440 spaces (plus those displaced by the Garage itself).



So if I understand it correctly, basically Ellman is receiving $12.5m in current debt relief; and the right to have the city fund construction of a new parking garage if development warrants it in the next seven years; in exchange for up to $47,394,964 in CFD payments over the next thirty years ?

 

[Dado]

From the excerpt, it looks more like ~$30M over 20 years...?

 

[Major4Boarding]

More-than-marginally off topic but just got a Tweet from the NHLPA. Please delete or move if waranted...

TORONTO, ON (January 24, 2011) – National Hockey League Players' Association (NHLPA) Executive Director, Don Fehr, announced additions today to the NHLPA staff. Colin A. Campbell joins as Director of Corporate Sponsorships, and Robert DeGregory and Maria Dennis both join the NHLPA as Associate Counsel. In addition, the NHLPA has retained Richard Rodier as a lawyer and economic consultant.

"I am very pleased that Colin, Robert, Maria and Richard are joining us," Fehr said. "Each of them brings experience and skills that will be of benefit to the players as we go forward."

Cont'd...

Rodier is a graduate of the Wharton School of Commerce and Finance (1978) and the University of Toronto Law School (1984). He has extensive experience analyzing the business of professional hockey. Rodier will assist the NHLPA in review and analysis of certain legal, economic and business issues affecting the sport.

http://www.nhlpa.com/News/Media-Releases/Details.aspx?R=9393B029-6B20-45EC-A6D0-E60E37E59491

Huh?

 

[Killion]

Are you trying to make me feel better, Killion?

Well ya. Laughter is the best medicine.

 

[RAgIn]

I think you are going off the deep end. The Agenda Item is simply dissolving the escrow account established in the Amended MUDA. It has nothing to do with revising any element of the Hulsizer deal.

It should be entirely uneventful.

Okay. I'll take your word for it that it will be uneventuful. But, will the council vote yes for this item on the agenda? What's does your crystal ball foresee?

Edit: I realize that this deal is not attached to Hulsizer but Ellman. But it still has ramifications with the Coyotes future. Does it not?

 

[roccerfeller]

I have my doubts. I think that the Walker report was "deep sixed" from at least some councilors and the public prior to the lease vote. It is clear that the public was not made aware of the two studies before the vote, and I think that the evidence that has emerged subsequently indicates that some councilors were kept in the dark. Note also that the COG kept the studies from the Arizona Republic, who had requested them, for at least a month after the council meeting and that they had to get the documents from the GWI.

Yeah, goyotes, I think this is precisely why it would appear that projection information was withheld rather than CoG "chose" not to make an informed choice after hyopthetically being presented both projections

Case in point is, as they stand currently, the Phoenix Coyotes organization is not something turning a profit. Time and time again, the arena is at best (announced attendance) lackluster even after an exciting post-season, prospective owner, cheap tickets, varying promotions (to try to get more people out)....I understand the market is tough, and Phoenix is not like Quebec City or Calgary where NHL is the only (or hypothetically would be in the former's case) game in town...

..but to counter point that, sports is always going to be a tough business, plus, the Phoenix metro area is a population 4x greater than Calgary's so it could theoretically support 4x the sports franchises.

There is clearly a dedicated fan base in the metro phoenix area...but the truly hardcore fans are a minuscule sampling of the entire metro area.

It doesn't help that hockey is simply not a historically relevant sport in the area, which is why there is no "tradition"...I believe the Coyotes were the "start" of truly implementing this tradition, but how long can hockey not thrive there? Thriving not in the sense of potential fan interest, but rather historical - there is no way about going about the fact that there are too many "fair weather" fans, people who just use it as a fun thing to do once in a while; not the serious hardcore fans that the team would need to really be healthy.

This is one of the reasons, and probably one of the strongest reasons, why the Coyotes are even in this mess in the first place. Regardless of whether or not previous owners ****** up the potential of this franchise, the current state it is in right now ultimately speaks for itself.

When there was uncertainty about the team leaving...I would have imagined truly hardcore fans would come out in droves to have supported the team, which they did not..attendance decreased. The fans that did stay around, were the true hardcore fans.

In addition to this, the city has their own invested interests (which is fair) to keeping the Coyotes, but one must wonder to what extent...what about the potential that someone like Beasley or Scruggs would not want this on their political resume should the Coyotes leave? Westgate unfortunately not developed? The arena "permanently shutting its doors"?

Where is the line between invested interests and personal Ego's?

I think if the blame game starts...and no personal responsibility is taken...this is one of the, on a psychological level, primary indicators that a strong factor in driving the persons (whoever was involved with crafting whatever deals have been going on behind the scenes) was related to their Ego...their own "I cannot be wrong...I cannot have the fact that I messed something up severely and let down an entire population rest on my conscience simply because I was (perhaps) trying to make a buck on the side..." or "doing something for a friend"

I suppose we'll never really know the answers to these sorts of questions.

The sad part, is this type of stuff always happens, and always affects the fans the most...those with the relevant emotional attachment...


But at the end of the day, the universe if going to go in the direction of least entropy...and I feel that given all the disorder ultimately surrounding this situation, regardless of the varying, multiple and sub-leveled reasons as to WHY the present day situation exists, its going to settle out...

and the outcome might make a new, albeit small, set of hardcore individuals bitter they lost their franchise...



No matter how we dissect it, I think what Whileee & goyotes are juxtaposing both sides of the same coin, but know that only only side can land facing up...

And if I was going to call which side would face "up" in this seemingly 50:50 decision, I would call the same side Whileee is betting on...

My "2" cents.

 

[RR]

More-than-marginally off topic but just got a Tweet from the NHLPA. Please delete or move if waranted...



http://www.nhlpa.com/News/Media-Releases/Details.aspx?R=9393B029-6B20-45EC-A6D0-E60E37E59491

Huh?

Oy. Lock-out scoreboard: Yes-1 No-0

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

I have a feeling tomorrow night's council meeting will be an important one.

Call it a hunch.