GDT: Panthers @ Capitals - 2/16/23 - 7pm ET

[Corby78]

The disturbing thing about last night is, while they may not have a stellar record with Ovie out, they've typically at least looked like a motivated team punching up when their captain has been gone.

That performance vs FLA was one of the worst in a big game I've seen since Ovechkin brought them back from the league dregs in his early days. We looked like a rebuild team, but with less snarl from a few lunks like Doig or whoever, and no GOAT goalscorer in the making to provide some level of hope or entertainment.

Yeah, the game 7 playoff chokejobs and other playoff collapses were disappointing and lame, but you felt those were a symptom of self-sabotage by a team that just couldn't allow itself to be successful.

Last night's effort was simply disjointed and awful, and Lavi looked like Hanlon or Oates on the bench...utterly confounded and confused by what he was seeing, and unable to figure out why it was happening.

That game was the gut check...the litmus test...for how valuable and resilient the guys left standing really are. The answer is not encouraging and does little to make the case for most of them to be on the team next year, or even next month.

Sell.

Lol goon finally joined us on the dark side.

 

[ovikovy817]

I'm a the Cirque du soleil crystal show right now (it's the break rn) and their hockey part was much better than Caps hockey in the last 2 games

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The disturbing thing about last night is, while they may not have a stellar record with Ovie out, they've typically at least looked like a motivated team punching up when their captain has been gone.

That performance vs FLA was one of the worst in a big game I've seen since Ovechkin brought them back from the league dregs in his early days. We looked like a rebuild team, but with less snarl from a few lunks like Doig or whoever, and no GOAT goalscorer in the making to provide some level of hope or entertainment.

Yeah, the game 7 playoff chokejobs and other playoff collapses were disappointing and lame, but you felt those were a symptom of self-sabotage by a team that just couldn't allow itself to be successful.

Last night's effort was simply disjointed and awful, and Lavi looked like Hanlon or Oates on the bench...utterly confounded and confused by what he was seeing, and unable to figure out why it was happening.

That game was the gut check...the litmus test...for how valuable and resilient the guys left standing really are. The answer is not encouraging and does little to make the case for most of them to be on the team next year, or even next month.

Sell.

They look like they took a Mortal Kombat Fatality…..like they just had their heart ripped out (Ovechkin) after getting kicked in the face all season….there’s probably no season-saving moves left IMO…..they’re too thin on guys who can win games.

 

[g00n]

Lol goon finally joined us on the dark side.

I'm right where I was at the end of last season. My point was to not throw in the towel until it was clear they were truly toast.

If they'd rallied around their adversity last night and pulled out a gutsy win, and hadn't looked like shit for 90% of the game, I'd still be in the "wait a few more games" camp.

But that was a complete disaster. Like showing up for a final exam drunk, and a day late, with no pants on.

Which actually sounds kinda fun.

 

[RedRocking]

They look like they took a Mortal Kombat Fatality…..like they just had their heart ripped out (Ovechkin) after getting kicked in the face all season….there’s probably no season-saving moves left IMO…..they’re too thin on guys who can win games.

So true. I do think FLA is a terrible matchup for this team and coaching style. Their whole game is predicated on a “reverse trap”, where they’ll let you cycle it around, waste energy, waiting for some putz like Kuzy, Mantha or Eller to turn it over, and boom! - they counter attack with an odd man rush and score.

It’s the biggest problem with Lavi’s system, and the Panthers play the perfect style to exploit it.

 

[g00n]

So true. I do think FLA is a terrible matchup for this team and coaching style. Their whole game is predicated on a “reverse trap”, where they’ll let you cycle it around, waste energy, waiting for some putz like Kuzy, Mantha or Eller to turn it over, and boom! - they counter attack with an odd man rush and score.

It’s the biggest problem with Lavi’s system, and the Panthers play the perfect style to exploit it.

But this also has nothing to do with team speed or age. It's because Lavi's system calls for all 5 skaters to be active in the offensive zone. On all of those 2 on 1 goals he Caps were putting pressure on the Panthers deep, and then when they lost the puck they were all caught too far below the net to recover.

It puts a lot of pressure on the goaltender which is why Sammy and VV struggled to keep things together. Upgrading both of them probably stopped some of the bleeding but every now and then the rush is going to win out.

I would like to see the team return to a system with at least 1 solid stay at home D per pairing, and maybe 1 puckmover that activates, with some forward responsibility for sagging to cover. I know the forwards are already supposed to do that but it doesn't always work out that way. That's when your footspeed becomes an issue but really few players in the league can recover from a scrum below the dot in order to break up a 2 on 1 that has 1/4 of the ring head start.

 

[RedRocking]

But this also has nothing to do with team speed or age. It's because Lavi's system calls for all 5 skaters to be active in the offensive zone. On all of those 2 on 1 goals he Caps were putting pressure on the Panthers deep, and then when they lost the puck they were all caught too far below the net to recover.

It puts a lot of pressure on the goaltender which is why Sammy and VV struggled to keep things together. Upgrading both of them probably stopped some of the bleeding but every now and then the rush is going to win out.

I would like to see the team return to a system with at least 1 solid stay at home D per pairing, and maybe 1 puckmover that activates, with some forward responsibility for sagging to cover. I know the forwards are already supposed to do that but it doesn't always work out that way. That's when your footspeed becomes an issue but really few players in the league can recover from a scrum below the dot in order to break up a 2 on 1 that has 1/4 of the ring head start.

Yea, totally. I wasn’t suggesting this specifically had to do with our personnel. Though, having less team speed to back check against a team like FLA isn’t helping.

Everyone likes to criticize Lavi for his lineup decisions, but his system is what has lost us so many games. With 4-5 guys up in the attack, one turnover near the high slot (where Kuzy likes to blindly throw it), or blue line (or a good outlet pass after our scoring chance) has lead to so many goals against on those 2 on 1s. Our D is a strength of the team, but they’re up in the play too much, or getting hung out to dry on odd man breaks.

And those things do normally happen to any team when you’re chasing the game, and selling out trying to score. But we do the same thing up one, or tied. So many games we dominate in zone time, only to have the winning goal be on a break with our D out of position (Newhook in the Avs game comes to mind).

 

[g00n]

Yea, totally. I wasn’t suggesting this specifically had to do with our personnel. Though, having less team speed to back check against a team like FLA isn’t helping.

Everyone likes to criticize Lavi for his lineup decisions, but his system is what has lost us so many games. With 4-5 guys up in the attack, one turnover near the high slot (where Kuzy likes to blindly throw it), or blue line (or a good outlet pass after our scoring chance) has lead to so many goals against on those 2 on 1s. Our D is a strength of the team, but they’re up in the play too much, or getting hung out to dry on odd man breaks.

And those things do normally happen to any team when you’re chasing the game, and selling out trying to score. But we do the same thing up one, or tied. So many games we dominate in zone time, only to have the winning goal be on a break with our D out of position (Newhook in the Avs game comes to mind).

Oshie just wildly flinging the puck around doesn't help. I'm not sure what happened to him recently but his head is 10,000 light years away.

 

[RedRocking]

Oshie just wildly flinging the puck around doesn't help. I'm not sure what happened to him recently but his head is 10,000 light years away.

I think his mind may be having trouble adjusting to his broken down body. It’s sad to see.

 

[Capsman]

Have you heard of free agency? And I disagree with your assessment of the drafting. I think the bigger issue is how many of those kids have been traded away.

He traded away McPhee’s picks with the exception of Vrána and Siegenthaler. And in the 2014 draft there were probably 4-5 players picked after Vrána who turned out to be better. Siegenthaler I agree with you, but then that speaks to player development issues.

So apparently you don’t see the value of having quality drafted players with more manageable salaries to complement FA pickups? Ok.

 

[Calicaps]

He traded away McPhee’s picks with the exception of Vrána and Siegenthaler. And in the 2014 draft there were probably 4-5 players picked after Vrána who turned out to be better. Siegenthaler I agree with you, but then that speaks to player development issues.

So apparently you don’t see the value of having quality drafted players with more manageable salaries to complement FA pickups? Ok.

please don't tell me what I see or don't see. we've all seen that Mahoney makes the call in drafting so your issue is with him.

 

[Capsman]

please don't tell me what I see or don't see. we've all seen that Mahoney makes the call in drafting so your issue is with him.

I highly doubt Mahoney is advising in a vacuum. He’s likely given a directive about the team’s needs and what type of player BM is looking for. I highly doubt Mahoney suddenly started stinking at what he does when Maclellan took over.

 

[Brian23]

I highly doubt Mahoney is advising in a vacuum. He’s likely given a directive about the team’s needs and what type of player BM is looking for. I highly doubt Mahoney suddenly started stinking at what he does when Maclellan took over.

But...they haven't been stinking.

Starting in 2014, GMBM took over in May and the draft was in June, his top picks by year have been as followed.

2014
1: Vrana <-Dynamic NHL Winger. Traded for Mantha with a bunch of additions.
2: Vanecek <- At worst, a great backup goal tender but is playing great as a starter for the Devils right now. Let walk for Keumper/Lindgren.
3: Nathan Walker <- awful pick.

2015.
1: Samsonov <- An engimatic goalie, who I think got a raw deal here, and is doing well in Toronto right now. Let walk for Keumper/Lindgren.
2: Siegenthaler <- Started hotter then the sun, has fallen back to earth. Seen it's assumed he injured himself in November and hasn't been the same, but at worst a cost controlled 4, 5, or 6 defender. Let walk for Chara.
3. Traded - For a 2nd for Siegenthaler.

2016.
1. Lucas Johansen <- often injured defender, hasn't been able to graduate due to the log jam of veterans at defense. Probably a bust.
2. Traded - Brooks Laich cap dump
3. Garret Pilon. Could probably fill in as a bottom pairing Center, but hasn't graduated due to a logjam of veterans.

2017.
1. Traded - Shattenkirk Trade
2. Traded - Lars Eller
3. Traded - Mike Weber. Yuck.

2018.
1. Alexander Alexeyev - Lavi plays Irwin over AA.
2a. Fehervary - Good top 4 D that's being played on the bottom pairing due to handedness issues. Still think he's got a lot more to show.
2b. Kody Clark -
3. Riley Sutter - Probably a bust, saw him as the 4C in Hershey. Much like Clark, our Bears fans can say more.

2019.
1. Connor McMichael - Great first year for a rookie, wouldn't get played by Lavi. Lighting up the AHL.
2. Brett Leason - Lost to waivers. Wish we had him on our bottom lines right now, but Lavi didn't want to play him. Probably still a bust though.
3. Protas - Big Boss Protas. Nuff Said.

2020.
1. Hendrix Lapierre - Exciting prospect, struggling a bit right now in the AHL but still putting up good numbers.
2. Traded. - Brendan Dillon Trade.
3. Traded. - Traded with our first for Lapierre.

2021
1. Traded - Traded for Anthony Mantha
2. Vincent Iorio - Looks like a future top 4 guy in the NHL, has all the tools just hoping he can put it all together.
3. Brent Johnson -

The drafting has been fine. They've just refused to graduate players for most of the last decades if they weren't immediately ready for the NHL.

 

[Capsman]

But...they haven't been stinking.

Starting in 2014, GMBM took over in May and the draft was in June, his top picks by year have been as followed.

2014
1: Vrana <-Dynamic NHL Winger. Traded for Mantha with a bunch of additions.
2: Vanecek <- At worst, a great backup goal tender but is playing great as a starter for the Devils right now. Let walk for Keumper/Lindgren.
3: Nathan Walker <- awful pick.

2015.
1: Samsonov <- An engimatic goalie, who I think got a raw deal here, and is doing well in Toronto right now. Let walk for Keumper/Lindgren.
2: Siegenthaler <- Started hotter then the sun, has fallen back to earth. Seen it's assumed he injured himself in November and hasn't been the same, but at worst a cost controlled 4, 5, or 6 defender. Let walk for Chara.
3. Traded - For a 2nd for Siegenthaler.

2016.
1. Lucas Johansen <- often injured defender, hasn't been able to graduate due to the log jam of veterans at defense. Probably a bust.
2. Traded - Brooks Laich cap dump
3. Garret Pilon. Could probably fill in as a bottom pairing Center, but hasn't graduated due to a logjam of veterans.

2017.
1. Traded - Shattenkirk Trade
2. Traded - Lars Eller
3. Traded - Mike Weber. Yuck.

2018.
1. Alexander Alexeyev - Lavi plays Irwin over AA.
2a. Fehervary - Good top 4 D that's being played on the bottom pairing due to handedness issues. Still think he's got a lot more to show.
2b. Kody Clark -
3. Riley Sutter - Probably a bust, saw him as the 4C in Hershey. Much like Clark, our Bears fans can say more.

2019.
1. Connor McMichael - Great first year for a rookie, wouldn't get played by Lavi. Lighting up the AHL.
2. Brett Leason - Lost to waivers. Wish we had him on our bottom lines right now, but Lavi didn't want to play him. Probably still a bust though.
3. Protas - Big Boss Protas. Nuff Said.

2020.
1. Hendrix Lapierre - Exciting prospect, struggling a bit right now in the AHL but still putting up good numbers.
2. Traded. - Brendan Dillon Trade.
3. Traded. - Traded with our first for Lapierre.

2021
1. Traded - Traded for Anthony Mantha
2. Vincent Iorio - Looks like a future top 4 guy in the NHL, has all the tools just hoping he can put it all together.
3. Brent Johnson -

The drafting has been fine. They've just refused to graduate players for most of the last decades if they weren't immediately ready for the NHL.

That’s a very generous take. Aside from POSSIBLY Vrana (and as I said there were 4-5 players drafted in the first round after him who are better players), name one above average top 6 player, above average bottom 6 player. Or even someone who has that written all over him. McMichaels are a dime a dozen. His ceiling is an average top 6 center. Lapierre is intriguing but raw. Protas looks like a guy whose ceiling is a 10-15 guy; good for a 3rd rounder, I’ll give you that. But I wouldn’t call him a diamond in the rough. Samsonov was a complete disaster of a pick. I don’t care what he’s doing in Toronto. Goalies are like RBs in the NFL. You can get lower ones in the draft, if you draft one in the first round he’d better be a stud. Same goes for Vanicek in the second round, a guy of his caliber can be found later.

Even if you think it’s a development issue and asset management issue, that falls ultimately on Maclellan. Just as that bozo Forsythe still being here falls on Maclellan ultimately.

 

[Brian23]

I just flat out disagree with your talent assessment. They didn't draft forwards, so no duh you don't have many, but CMM, Lapierre, and Protas are all players with plenty of top 6 upside. Writing them off now is just asinine.

And people really let their distaste for the character of Samsonov cloud what he actually was, and just brushing aside him playing well in Toronto now because it doesn't fit the narrative is peak feels over reals.

 

[Capsman]

I just flat out disagree with your talent assessment. They didn't draft forwards, so no duh you don't have many, but CMM, Lapierre, and Protas are all players with plenty of top 6 upside. Writing them off now is just asinine.

And people really let their distaste for the character of Samsonov cloud what he actually was, and just brushing aside him playing well in Toronto now because it doesn't fit the narrative is peak feels over reals.

Let’s condense this down to one point. ONE player drafted by the Caps since 2014 is a regular on this team. ONE. You can talk about not drafting forwards all you want, but where are the other areas solidified by the draft?

And I never called the 3 forwards busts, I just don’t see them as upper echelon guys from what I’ve seen of them. Look at how TB was built, they’ve drafted 2nd rounders better than any of our first rounders. Kody Clark isn’t even an above average AHL’er.