TheCoach said:
First off, Martin Havlat got ice time playing for Jacques Martin. Jacques Martin!!! A more defense first coach than Ken Hitchcock. He is the guy who refused to play Jason Spezza because of his defense. If Martin Havlat can get ice time under Jacques Martin, he can definately get ice time under Ken Hitchcock. Sure the guy will never be a candidate for the Selke, but he is not horrible. The kid has learned to be responsible playing under Martin.
The whole Havlat incident was blown way out of proportion. Recchi was tugging on him from behind, and havlat turned around with his stick chest high, and since Recchi is 5'8 and was not upright like Havlat, it hit him in the face. It wasn't this enormously dirty play that you Flyer fans are making it out to be.
And of course Jacques Martin didn't want Havlat to go fight. Why would any coach want one of his best offensive players to risk injury by sending him out during a brawl. It was a smart decision by Martin.
And what Havlat lacks in defense, he makes up in offense. Gagne has never been close to a PPG, and Havlat has already done it once. Havlat's also a year younger. Would you take Shane Doan over Ilya Kovalchuk because Doan is the better two way player?
I'm not sure there is a more defense first coach than Ken Hitchcock, but I understand your point that Jacques is probably comparable in that regard. I do think there's a bit of a difference between sitting a 19 year old Jason Spezza as opposed to Hitch limiting the ice time of established players like Tony Amonte and John Leclair until they start to buy into defense first hockey. At any rate, I still believe Havlat would have to alter the way he plays to play consistent minutes under Hitch. The flyers offense is based primarily off their ability to counter attack and all 3 forwards are required to back check like crazy. Jeremy Roenick was forced to become a very good two way center under Hitch, much like Modano was and much like Gagne is becoming (obviously as a winger).
As for the incident, Havlat has always been reckless with his stick. Recchi was doing nothing that doesn't happen 20 times a game. Havlat turned around and his recklessness resulted in Recchi (who is 5'10" btw) being hit in the face. Ottawa fans see it one way, Flyers fans obviously a different way. I don't think most people would have been upset if it was an isolated incident, but as you know Havlat has never been one to be careful with his stick.
As for Martin's thinking in the brawl, him sending Havlat to serve the penalty only escalated it. He sent out Spezza in the brawl without being concerned about him being injured in a fight. He sent out other elite Senators without being worried about them so i'm not sure I buy that, but I understand your thinking.
As for Gagne's offensive production, he hasn't been asked to be a scoring forward since he was 21. At that age he put up 33 goals, 33 assists in 79 games. We'll have to find out how he puts together his defensive ability with his offensive ability, but I suspect he'll be able to score 70 points or more (35/35) while still being an elite defensive forward if he's given the opportunity and the linemates. I personally think Gagne's a selky caliber defensive forward (as I'm sure many flyers fans who get to watch him every day believe) and Havlat's offensive ability doesn't make up for it.
I know I took shots at Havlat in my initial post, but I do really like him as a player. I do like the fact that he's feisty (obviously I don't like the extra-curricular stuff) and you can't help but appreciate his offensive ability. I just prefer Gagne in the flyers system.
As for the initial question, I think Havlat will continue to produce more and more offensively and it will take Ovechkin until he's at least 23 or 24 to equal or surpass Havlat's offensive ability. That doesn't mean he won't be a better all around player by the age of 21 or 22.