There’s zero wrong with showing ‘on pace’. But when a guy like OV is ‘on pace’ for ten goals then it makes sense to look at the other numbers. If you’re at like 7 percent shooting percentage then you’re either really unlucky or you’re injured.
Matthews earlier in the year, 15 games ago or so it was nearly a forgone conclusion by many he'd hit 75+ goals. Had he got injured at the end of his streak instead, over half the board would be claiming that for sure he would have had a 75+ goal campaign.
Crosby in '11-'12, 37 points in 22 games. Too many claim it would have been a 130 point season had he remained healthy. His on ice 5v5% was 16%.
'21-22, Ovechkin on Dec 31 had 50 points in 33 games, he also has 38 ESP. McDavid had 52 in 31. 30 ESP. 4th place Stamkos in 4th place had 39 points in 32 games. What if Ovechkin got injured at that point, would people be claiming he would have arguably had the best season by a 36 year old had he stayed healthy?
It's just disingenuous to credit players for having high ppg for a partial season and using that as a comparison to full seasons. It's essentially punishing players who play the entire, or at least the vast majority of the season.
Hopefully Ovechkin can start out hot next year and hit 40+ goals. Would love nothing more to see him have one more big season.