Ovechkin just won his 9th Rocket. Does this change how you view him?

[Michael Farkas]

Bobby Hull in the 20s...? Boy, would I like to see how we get there...

 

[Midnight Judges]

Hull also led the league in goals in the 60's by a wide margin. He finished top 10 in assists for the decade. He also finished fourth in shorthanded goals that decade. He scored 83 shorthanded goals in his career. Ovechkin doesn't kill penalties. He has 4 shorthanded goals in his career and 3 of those were in his first season. I understand the league has changed on who kills penalties, but this is what we have to work with. He's never been as good defensively as Hull. I know plus/minus can be overrated, but he's a -12 this season, despite playing on the top line of one of the best teams in the league.

I just don't see him better than Hull. I have Ovechkin right behind Hull as best LW in NHL history. Nothing wrong with that. Second best at your position is not a slight. If he keeps this up, he could pass him on my list.

Hull fared (arguably) slightly better relative to a vastly inferior talent group that was 95-97% born in one country with a population of 11-13 million people. Ovechkin is competing against an international league where only 43% of the players are from that same country despite it tripling in population. Their peer groups aren't comparable, and that's where your metrics fail.

Now answer my question: In his generation, Ovechkin is tops in goals (by a huge margin) and points, top 10 in assists, and top 3 in hits. Explain how this adds up to "one trick pony" or "one dimensional."

 

[joe dirte]

Bobby Hull in the 20s...? Boy, would I like to see how we get there...

Not that I think this is a good list but...

Ken Campbell ranks the Top 100 NHL players of all time - TheHockeyNews

written 3.5 years ago with the main knock being no cup... a cup, conn Smythe, and 3 more Richards kind of changes things don’t you think?

and there are lots of names there I would push wayyyy higher. Bourque and bossy for example. But some are a little crazy... jagr better than Lemieux is asinine.

 

[GMR]

Hull fared (arguably) slightly better relative to a vastly inferior talent group that was 95-97% born in one country with a population of 11-13 million people. Ovechkin is competing against an international league where only 43% of the players are from that same country despite it tripling in population. Their peer groups aren't comparable, and that's where your metrics fail.

Now answer my question: In his generation, Ovechkin is tops in goals (by a huge margin) and points, top 10 in assists, and top 3 in hits. Explain how this adds up to "one trick pony" or "one dimensional."

His assist finishes have dwindled over the years. He hasn't finished top 10 in assists since 2011. He's relatively weak on his end of the ice. Yes, he still hits people. I'll give him that. I don't know if his total hits have changed over the years. I just feel like he was a more complete offensive player early in his career. His goal scoring has remained consistent but the rest of his game has either worsened or stayed the same.

Hull played against plenty of elite peers. Howe, Beliveau, Orr, Harvey, Kelly. That's probably four top 10 players right there. It wasn't just some Canadian scrubs who could barely play the game. I understand there's more teams now and more of a global game. You could make the same argument against Howe, Lindsay, or other great wingers who are in Ovechkin's league.

 

[GMR]

Not that I think this is a good list but...

Ken Campbell ranks the Top 100 NHL players of all time - TheHockeyNews

written 3.5 years ago with the main knock being no cup... a cup, conn Smythe, and 3 more Richards kind of changes things don’t you think?

and there are lots of names there I would push wayyyy higher. Bourque and bossy for example. But some are a little crazy... jagr better than Lemieux is asinine.

He has Scott Niedermayer 19th all-time. How did this guy become a hockey analyst? He actually has Niedermayer ahead of........................you guessed it, Alexander Ovechkin.

 

[joe dirte]

His assist finishes have dwindled over the years. He hasn't finished top 10 in assists since 2011. He's relatively weak on his end of the ice. Yes, he still hits people. I'll give him that. I don't know if his total hits have changed over the years. I just feel like he was a more complete offensive player early in his career. His goal scoring has remained consistent but the rest of his game has either worsened or stayed the same.

Hull played against plenty of elite peers. Howe, Beliveau, Orr, Harvey, Kelly. That's probably four top 10 players right there. It wasn't just some Canadian scrubs who could barely play the game. I understand there's more teams now and more of a global game. You could make the same argument against Howe, Lindsay, or other great wingers who are in Ovechkin's league.

The rest of his game has not stayed the same. His goal totals dropped because he actually started to play défense. He’s gotten way better at that (not that it could get any worse than it was in his early days).

 

[joe dirte]

He has Scott Niedermayer 19th all-time. How did this guy become a hockey analyst? He actually has Niedermayer ahead of........................you guessed it, Alexander Ovechkin.

Yeah I know there is some ridiculous stuff there, all I was pointing out is that it’s not like bobby Hull is some consensus lock for top 10 like some here seem to think.

everybody has their opinion.... I can’t understand the fascination with Beliveau.

 

[GMR]

The rest of his game has not stayed the same. His goal totals dropped because he actually started to play défense. He’s gotten way better at that (not that it could get any worse than it was in his early days).

Plus/minus is misleading sometimes, but here are his finishes in that category the last few seasons (keep in mind that Washington has been a top team during that time). I'd expect better from the best player on a team that always contends for the league's top record.

2018 +3
2019 +7
2020 -12

 

[quoipourquoi]

Hull fared (arguably) slightly better relative to a vastly inferior talent group that was 95-97% born in one country with a population of 11-13 million people. Ovechkin is competing against an international league where only 43% of the players are from that same country despite it tripling in population. Their peer groups aren't comparable, and that's where your metrics fail.

Now answer my question: In his generation, Ovechkin is tops in goals (by a huge margin) and points, top 10 in assists, and top 3 in hits. Explain how this adds up to "one trick pony" or "one dimensional."

You understand that by saying “his generation” when in reference to career totals for a 15-year player, you’re essentially setting a time frame that unless you’re from roughly the same birth year, it’s near impossible to match.

“His generation” means players who played before 2005-06 might have retired years ago, allowing Ovechkin to catch up to their assist totals while players who didn’t come in until well after 2005-06 are disadvantaged.

Ovechkin has had unimpressive assist totals for a while. And of all of the players with a minimum of 200 assists since 2005-06, Ovechkin is roughly ~54th in assists per game. So yes, he is a one-dimensional offensive player. And if he didn’t focus all on that one dimension, we wouldn’t be talking about him each season as though he’s doing something more significant than a player with comparable goal totals and twice as many assists.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Not that I think this is a good list but...

Ken Campbell ranks the Top 100 NHL players of all time - TheHockeyNews

That's good. I guess I was more interested in how you personally get to Hull being where he is (and then also find a way to back Bossy in the meantime)...generally, I wouldn't submit evidence with the preface of "well, this seems wrong..." I feel like the jury will be less open to a self-torpedoed claim haha

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Ovechkin--Bobby Hull

Hart: 3--2
Finalist: 5--8
Top 10: 9--10
Lindsay: 3--n/a
Finalist: 6--n/a
Smythe: 1--0
Calder: 1--0

Ross: 1--3
Top 10 pts: 8--11
PPG leader: 3--2
Top 10 PPG: 8--12

Rocket: 9--7
Top 10 goals: 13--13
GPG leader: 10--8
Top 10 GPG: 13--13

1st AST: 8--10
2nd AST: 4--2
Awards: 18--12 (no lindsay during Hull's time though)

OV has an extra hart, but Hull has more nominations and better finishes overall. OV was on pace for another top 10 hart finish this year so make that 10-10. OV has a smythe but to be fair, Hull won his cup before the smythe was awarded.

Hull has 2 extra rosses and better pt finishes, OV has the extra PPG win.

OV has 2 extra rockets and 2 extra GPG wins, but Hull has more dominant rocket wins.

Both have 12 ASTs.

Just looking at these resumes, I'd say edge to Hull. However, it has to be taken into consideration that Hull did all of this in a 6 team Canada only league where as OV obviously did it in a 30 team international league. Remove Europeans and Americans and OV gains serious hardware (09 ross, 10 hart), his ross and rocket wins get more dominant and his pt/hart finishes improve. It's a coin flip at this point.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Just to say the words, the Smythe wasn't around for a good chunk of Hull's prime either...not that I necessarily believes he bags one or not, but it's worth saying because the Richard Trophy comment...

 

[hamzarocks]

Bobby Hull is not in the 20s wtf. Hull imo is better than Ovechkin but it is still close. I have Ovechkin as a fringe top 10 player all time. Around 8-13 range. I have hull in one higher tier at 5-9 range.

 

[Forge]

Before he had 9 Rockets, I thought he was an all time great goal scorer.

Now that he has 9, I still think that he is an all time great goal scorer.

 

[Vilica]

Ovechkin has had unimpressive assist totals for a while. And of all of the players with a minimum of 200 assists since 2005-06, Ovechkin is roughly ~54th in assists per game. So yes, he is a one-dimensional offensive player. And if he didn’t focus all on that one dimension, we wouldn’t be talking about him each season as though he’s doing something more significant than a player with comparable goal totals and twice as many assists.

This is a valid point of yours, but might I raise a counterpoint to your dismissal of Ovechkin's assist totals? When we talk about the main reduction in Ovechkin's assists, what we're really talking about is his decline in power play assists. Since the Capitals switched to their structured 1-3-1 power play in 12-13, Ovechkin's power play assists have disappeared, despite him playing >80% of the power play. So in the case of an individual stat, Ovechkin's assist totals are lacking.

On the other hand, in that 12-13 through 18-19 period, the Capitals have the most power play goals as well as the highest PP conversion rate. Clearly, Ovechkin's lack of power play assists is not adversely affecting the actual execution of the power play. Ovechkin doesn't get assists on the power play because he doesn't touch the puck until he takes a shot. The fact that Ovechkin's gravity opens up shooting lanes for Oshie/Carlson is never going to result in additional points for Ovechkin, but will result in additional goals for the Capitals, and at the end of the day that's really all that matters.

Also, I agree with the Hull in the 20s skepticism - I'm probably one of his bigger detractors on here, and he's still 14th on my list. I don't think he can get back in my top 10, but he's so accomplished that you just can't drop him any further.

 

[Oheao]

You understand that by saying “his generation” when in reference to career totals for a 15-year player, you’re essentially setting a time frame that unless you’re from roughly the same birth year, it’s near impossible to match.

“His generation” means players who played before 2005-06 might have retired years ago, allowing Ovechkin to catch up to their assist totals while players who didn’t come in until well after 2005-06 are disadvantaged.

Ovechkin has had unimpressive assist totals for a while. And of all of the players with a minimum of 200 assists since 2005-06, Ovechkin is roughly ~54th in assists per game. So yes, he is a one-dimensional offensive player. And if he didn’t focus all on that one dimension, we wouldn’t be talking about him each season as though he’s doing something more significant than a player with comparable goal totals and twice as many assists.

Does anyone know why his assists totals declined so significantly after the first few years? What did he do differently back then?

 

[quoipourquoi]

This is a valid point of yours, but might I raise a counterpoint to your dismissal of Ovechkin's assist totals? When we talk about the main reduction in Ovechkin's assists, what we're really talking about is his decline in power play assists. Since the Capitals switched to their structured 1-3-1 power play in 12-13, Ovechkin's power play assists have disappeared, despite him playing >80% of the power play. So in the case of an individual stat, Ovechkin's assist totals are lacking.

On the other hand, in that 12-13 through 18-19 period, the Capitals have the most power play goals as well as the highest PP conversion rate. Clearly, Ovechkin's lack of power play assists is not adversely affecting the actual execution of the power play. Ovechkin doesn't get assists on the power play because he doesn't touch the puck until he takes a shot. The fact that Ovechkin's gravity opens up shooting lanes for Oshie/Carlson is never going to result in additional points for Ovechkin, but will result in additional goals for the Capitals, and at the end of the day that's really all that matters.

Also, I agree with the Hull in the 20s skepticism - I'm probably one of his bigger detractors on here, and he's still 14th on my list. I don't think he can get back in my top 10, but he's so accomplished that you just can't drop him any further.

Is it really just his powerplay assists though? He had 179 even-strength assists in his first 6 seasons, and just 170 in the 9 seasons since. His 134 powerplay assists from his first 6 seasons certainly decreased to a greater extent (just 88 in his last 9 seasons), but both are very much down.

He hasn’t exactly been hitting the consistent 27-36 even-strength assists per year like he did from 2008-2011. He’s only broken 20+ in 3 of his last 9 years.

So you’re definitely correct in pointing out that his powerplay assists are essentially halved, but the even-strength assists are down by a third too.

 

[ImporterExporter]

In his era, Ovechkin has 53% more goals than any other player, more points than any other player, is top 10 in assists, and top 3 in hits.

So which of these things is the "one trick" in your opinion?

It's amazing how you live in the world of absolutes like raw stats.

As if you never heard of per game.

 

[Midnight Judges]

You understand that by saying “his generation” when in reference to career totals for a 15-year player, you’re essentially setting a time frame that unless you’re from roughly the same birth year, it’s near impossible to match.

“His generation” means players who played before 2005-06 might have retired years ago, allowing Ovechkin to catch up to their assist totals while players who didn’t come in until well after 2005-06 are disadvantaged.

Ovechkin has had unimpressive assist totals for a while. And of all of the players with a minimum of 200 assists since 2005-06, Ovechkin is roughly ~54th in assists per game. So yes, he is a one-dimensional offensive player. And if he didn’t focus all on that one dimension, we wouldn’t be talking about him each season as though he’s doing something more significant than a player with comparable goal totals and twice as many assists.

The mistake you make here is judging the greatest goal scorer of all time based on assist totals in isolation when that isn't even his primary role. Have you changed your views so much since, oh, four hours ago when you typed this:

...looking at goals and assists in isolation of each other is problematic.

Ovechkin could certainly be deployed in more of a playmaking role. Ovie could rack up high assist totals the way he has proven that he can (getting 50 assists four different times) and his point totals would certainly go up. They could have him taking face-offs - which any scrub can do - and getting an extra 1800 touches/chances per year for a cheap secondary assist, and most fans would be impressed by the extra 5-10 points per season this would generate. But the Capitals have had even better success deploying him as the deadliest goal scorer of all time on their way to accumulating the most wins in the NHL since 2007-2008. Ovie scores unscreened goals from distance that would be easy stops if it was just about any other player shooting the puck.

They could have a normal power play with multiple shooters, and shots coming often from both sides, but the Capitals' power play is not geared towards getting Ovie assists, because his shot is so deadly that the whole thing is set up to do precisely that. And the Caps have the deadliest power play since 07-08 by 1.2% over the second best team, and 3.4% above the median (4.1% since 12-13). He could certainly have more power play points in a more traditional role, but it's not what's best for the team.

You moved the goal posts from "one dimensional player" to "one-dimensional offensive player." I suppose that's progress but it's still objectively false. Ovie is obviously a great forechecker. Do you deny it?!?

And again, his career assists per game is the same as Jonathan Toews and within 4% of Tavaras - who I cannot help but notice - nobody has ever called those Canadian players one dimensional or labelled them with your newly invented category of "one dimensional offensively." Hell, I guess those future hall of famers are "no-dimensional offensive players" by your standards, eh?

 

[Vilica]

Is it really just his powerplay assists though? He had 179 even-strength assists in his first 6 seasons, and just 170 in the 9 seasons since. His 134 powerplay assists from his first 6 seasons certainly decreased to a greater extent (just 88 in his last 9 seasons), but both are very much down.

He hasn’t exactly been hitting the consistent 27-36 even-strength assists per year like he did from 2008-2011. He’s only broken 20+ in 3 of his last 9 years.

So you’re definitely correct in pointing out that his powerplay assists are essentially halved, but the even-strength assists are down by a third too.

I had a section on his ESAs in that post initially, but removed it to just concentrate on PP there. That decline does exist, and is less "explainable", as it were, than his power play assists. But you can look at this per-game breakdown of his scoring here (which does aggregate ES and PP): NHL.com Stats

Without seeing if any of his on-ice percentages are way down or way up, can you detect any patterns in his A1 or A2/game numbers (beyond the huge difference between peak Ovechkin and post-peak Ovechkin)? Take 14-15 and 15-16 for two sample seasons that illustrate the difficulty in trying to explain changes in assists rationally. Same coach, same center, same TOI, same shots on goal, though better team/teammates. In 14-15, Ovechkin's A1 is in line with his post-peak career, and his A2 disappear, while in 15-16, his A2 is in line with his career number while his A1 drops off a cliff. The first year, Ovechkin's RW was a mishmash of players, while in 15-16, he had Oshie, so you'd think having that proven finisher would boost his assist numbers, but instead the opposite occurred.

What I've noticed when looking at these numbers for a bunch of primary goal scorers (especially wingers) is that their A2/game is 0.20 at most, whereas more balanced players (especially centers) tend to have A2/game minimum of 0.25. I might also point out that the difference over a full 82 game season between 0.2 and 0.25 is 4 secondary assists, ie an extra secondary assist every 20 games. Look at these numbers for the top 50 goal-scorers in NHL history - NHL.com Stats - and see the differences between centers and wingers. I don't know what you can conclude from that, or even if it is meaningful at all, but that gap between wingers and centers exists.

Again, I'm not trying to excuse Ovechkin's lack of assists. When I'm looking at the statistics, for any player, I'm looking at the numbers (and trying to not have any priors), and pushing out various hypotheses - what can we conclude, what can't we conclude, where each player is producing good numbers, and where they are faltering. Can we distinguish between player decline, coaching/structure changes, and randomness? Did Ovechkin benefit from Boudreau's aggressive system during his peak to boost his APG numbers higher than they may otherwise have been? Did his lack of ice-time with Hunter, Oates' inept structure, and Trotz's defensive emphasis suppress his APG numbers after the Boudreau inflation? Those are all threads/lines of inquiry you could follow, but in the end I feel it all washes out in the larger sample size of Ovechkin's career.

[Also with regards to the first link, that aggregated ES and PP, if you choose Power Play from the Report dropdown, that has just his PP A1/A2 numbers, though everything is /60 instead of /Game. That can help you back out the ES numbers without having to resort to scoring logs. The Scoring per 60 has even strength since 09-10 as well. You can look at all these numbers for as long as you want, but good luck trying to pick signal from noise in any particular season.]

 

[daver]

The rest of his game has not stayed the same. His goal totals dropped because he actually started to play défense. He’s gotten way better at that (not that it could get any worse than it was in his early days).

He cheated on defense in his early days as he was such a threat offensively. He put in a noticeably better effort in 14/15 and in their Cup run. His goal totals were not affected by this. His defensive contribution reached an all-time low in 13/14 but again this did not affect his goal totals.

Even if it did affect his goal totals, wouldn't Hull's goal totals be affected as he played better defense throughout his career?

 

[sr edler]

Teams often put two players on Bobby Hull. Have Ovi even been shadowed by a single player at any significant time period? Like a series or something..., like Zetterberg on Crosby, or Kesler on McDavid, both times in the playoffs. Serious question.

 

[daver]

Since this has become a Hull vs. OV thread, and not unreasonably, what are people's thoughts about their respective playoff resumes?

Both have an air of disappointment given the strength of their respective teams but it seems the finger can be pointed at other players not meeting expectations than Hull or OV.

There seems to be a clear difference in their overall offensive contributions as Hull has a leading PPG during his era while OV is a level the leader, similar to their regular season PPGs.

 

[bobholly39]

I would find it pretty insane if anyone thought that Ovechkin was better today than he was yesterday due to this news. Putting up a 48 and 19 makes him look like prime Wilt Chamberlain though.

I dont know that 'anyone thinks he's better today than yesterday' - but i also think we shouldnt discount trophies altogether.

Yet another rocket - 9 for career - is a tremendous accomplishment imo.

 

[bobholly39]

Without actually making a list, almost certainly not. But he will possibly end up the best goal scorer all time and a lock of the top 15, with a shot at eventually maybe 10.

Dont agree with some of your other posts in this thread but this is spot on in how i rank Ovi too.

The only thing id change is the word 'possibly' to 'almost certainly'. Just some extra compiling is likely enough to be top goal scorer pretty unanimously