Ovechkin, Datsyuk and 2007-08 WAR

[NHL WAR]

It is not an unpopular opinion to say Alex Ovechkin's 2007-08 season is the best of the 2000s. I was curious to see how it would grade by WAR. I also wanted to test how a peak Pavel Datsyuk's all around game would compare to Ovechkin's dominant goal scoring.
So I went component by component, pitting them head to head in each aspect of WAR: Ovechkin, Datsyuk and the Importance of WAR. I also listed the leaders league wide for each category.

For those not wanting to read the full thing, I'll spoil the ending. Ovechkin finished with 9 WAR, Datsyuk 8. Both of these are crazy numbers. The only 8 WAR season from 2015-19 was Nikita Kucherov's 8.4 last year.

Top 10 forwards by WAR 2007-08:

player (Team)	WAR
ALEX.OVECHKIN (WSH)	9
PAVEL.DATSYUK (DET)	8
HENRIK.ZETTERBERG (DET)	7.6
JAROME.IGINLA (CGY)	7
JOE.THORNTON (S.J)	6.7
EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)	6.6
DANIEL.ALFREDSSON (OTT)	6
DEREK.ROY (BUF)	5.8
SIDNEY.CROSBY (PIT)	5.6
JASON.SPEZZA (OTT)	5.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This exercise further reinforces two of my opinions:

1. Alex Ovechkin's 07-08 season very much should be considered an all-timer
2. An all-encompassing stat like WAR is necessary to reward do it all players ,like Datsyuk, who cannot be accurately measured by points alone

Feel free to share your thoughts on the data and share your personal ranking of the best seasons of the 2000s.

Click to read more...

 

[izzy]

praise derek roy

 

[Baxterman]

That seems to show how poor of a stat war is than anything else.

 

[NHL WAR]

That seems to show how poor of a stat war is than anything else.

Which part?

 

[The Grim Reaper]

That seems to show how poor of a stat war is than anything else.

Explain.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

What’s interesting is that Evolving Hockey’s WAR model has Datsyuk as far and away the best player in the 2007-present era. I wish I had seen more of his prime but I think it’s possible that he truly was one of the greatest players of all time.

 

[NHL WAR]

What’s interesting is that Evolving Hockey’s WAR model has Datsyuk as far and away the best player in the 2007-present era. I wish I had seen more of his prime but I think it’s possible that he truly was one of the greatest players of all time.

Interesting. Do you happen to recall what his best single season WAR was by that model?

 

[Chips]

What’s interesting is that Evolving Hockey’s WAR model has Datsyuk as far and away the best player in the 2007-present era. I wish I had seen more of his prime but I think it’s possible that he truly was one of the greatest players of all time.

There’s four 50 minute videos on YouTube that have not only scoring, but other plays

THe volume and consistency of dekes alone, threading passes, counter hits etc was amazing

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Interesting. Do you happen to recall what his best single season WAR was by that model?

7.4 WAR in 2007-2008. The next best season by any player was Connor McDavid with 6.3 WAR in 2016-2017. And then the 3rd best season is Datsyuk with 6.1 WAR in 2008-2009.

 

[Baxterman]

Which part?

Explain.

Seeing the players listed and the high WAR values they have on them and then realizing that they are not the top guys from that season makes me question if there is something wrong with the stat being used to rank them.

I mean you even say it that Ovechkins season should be considered an all timer and it isn’t even close to that. That should raise warning flags.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I mean you even say it that Ovechkins season should be considered an all timer and it isn’t even close to that. That should raise warning flags.

Ovechkin won the Hart, Pearson, Richard, and the Art Ross while outscoring his nearest teammates by 43 points and 39 goals, had 101 primary points, and you think it's obvious that his season wasn't an all-time great season?

 

[GlitchMarner]

Seeing the players listed and the high WAR values they have on them and then realizing that they are not the top guys from that season makes me question if there is something wrong with the stat being used to rank them.

I mean you even say it that Ovechkins season should be considered an all timer and it isn’t even close to that. That should raise warning flags.

The fact that you personally dislike the player doesn't take away from how dominant that season was. When you score 65 goals, lead the League in points and dominate possession, that is an all-time great season by any objective measure.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Ovechkin won the Hart, Pearson, Richard, and the Art Ross while outscoring his nearest teammate by 43 points and 39 goals, had 101 primary points, and you think it's obvious that his season wasn't an all-time great season?

Read his posts. He just doesn't like the player.

 

[NHL WAR]

Seeing the players listed and the high WAR values they have on them and then realizing that they are not the top guys from that season makes me question if there is something wrong with the stat being used to rank them.

I mean you even say it that Ovechkins season should be considered an all timer and it isn’t even close to that. That should raise warning flags.

Who do you consider the top forwards that season?

 

[Baxterman]

The fact that you personally dislike the player doesn't take away from how dominant that season was. When you score 65 goals, lead the League in points and dominate possession, that is an all-time great season by any objective measure.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

Not just a personal dislike the guy is vastly overrated as a player as well as evidenced by this “evaluation” of his meh season.

 

[GlitchMarner]

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

Not just a personal dislike the guy is vastly overrated as a player as well as evidenced by this “evaluation” of his meh season.

How is it a "meh" season? Can you explain without being biased?

 

[Baxterman]

Who do you consider the top forwards that season?

I would say:

Crosby
Iginla
Thornton
Malkin
Datsyuk

 

[Baxterman]

How is it a "meh" season? Can you explain without being biased?

A lot of empty goals with zero defense and a guy that is willing to score a goal, give up 4, lose the game and think it was a positive result.

 

[NHL WAR]

I would say:

Crosby
Iginla
Thornton
Malkin
Datsyuk

Gotcha. FWIW, Crosby's 5.3 WAR that season pro-rates to 8.6 over 82 games which would spring board him up to 2nd on the list.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Interestingly, even though Ovechkin still scores a lot of goals, I don't think WAR flatters him too much these days. That's likely due to his decline in playmaking and because of the fact that he is no longer able to drive or control the play the way he used to be able to (which influences his advanced statistics).

But by any objective measure, his 2008 season is one of the best of the century.

 

[GlitchMarner]

A lot of empty goals with zero defense and a guy that is willing to score a goal, give up 4, lose the game and think it was a positive result.

Considering he was +28 and basically carried an average at best team to the playoffs, I don't think you know what the hell you're talking about.

 

[Baxterman]

Considering he was +28 and basically carried an average at best team to the playoffs, I don't think you know what the hell you're talking about.

Plus minus is about as useless a stat as there is.

 

[Romang67]

A lot of empty goals with zero defense and a guy that is willing to score a goal, give up 4, lose the game and think it was a positive result.

3. 3 empty net goals.

And of course the Capitals allowed way fewer goals than they scored with Ovechkin on the ice. They scored 150 goals with Ovi on the ice, and allowed 67. Or put another way, Ovi scored 65 goals, and the Capitals allowed 67 with him on the ice.

Considering he was +28 and basically carried an average at best team to the playoffs, I don't think you know what the hell you're talking about.

That's because it's unsubstantiated nonsense.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Interestingly, even though Ovechkin still scores a lot of goals, I don't think WAR flatters him too much these days. That's likely due to his decline in playmaking and because of the fact that he is no longer able to drive or control the play the way he used to be able to (which influences his advanced statistics).

But by any objective measure, his 2008 season is one of the best of the century.

This WAR calculation actually underrates Ovechkin a bit because it utilizes expected goals for.

Expected goals for assumes every player in the NHL has the same quality of shot and then predicts how many goals should have been scored with them on the ice based on shot distance. Ovechkin routinely leads the NHL in goals and is among the highest in shot distance, which indicates he has a great shot (duh).

This WAR system also rates power play goals as roughly the same value as ES secondary assists, which is bizarre IMO.

 

[Regal]

Seeing the players listed and the high WAR values they have on them and then realizing that they are not the top guys from that season makes me question if there is something wrong with the stat being used to rank them.

I mean you even say it that Ovechkins season should be considered an all timer and it isn’t even close to that. That should raise warning flags.

How isn't it?

Edit: Nevermind, you just don't know what you're talking about apparently