Out of the Loop: Why is Everywhere Talking like Andersen is Going?

[Goose]

I was never a Freddy fan but over the last season or two I’ve come to see him as, overall, an average to above average goalie.

From what I’ve been reading lately, it sounds like almost a foregone conclusion he is moving and I don’t quite understand why?

Outside a couple of goals I thought he had a decent playoffs and his stat line certainly can’t be nit picked over the 5 playoff games as a whole, what’s going on that everyone seems to be talking as if he’s a goner? I feel like I missed something here.

Click to read more...

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I was never a Freddy fan but over the last season or two I’ve come to see him as, overall, an average to above average goalie.

From what I’ve been reading lately, it sounds like almost a foregone conclusion he is moving and I don’t quite understand why?

Outside a couple of goals I thought he had a decent playoffs and his stat line certainly can’t be nit picked over the 5 playoff games as a whole, what’s going on that everyone seems to be talking as if he’s a goner? I feel like I missed something here.

James Mirtle put out a list of players Dubas was apparently trading and this is where it has started.

He likely knows squat and if he does know anything Shanny better find out who is dropping names and put a stop to it. He never knew anything before or never was insider. Whatever a insider is. Rumour mongers for click bait is a good definition.

I don’t read the athletic because they give free read for a week and then constantly try to take your money off your card. Thats what they did to me for a free weeks read anyways.

 

[Cor]

Both Mirtle, Siegel, Friedman, Lebrun have all talked about a possible move.

Friedman has said he believes the Leafs will be one of the main bidders for Robin Lehner.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

I was never a Freddy fan but over the last season or two I’ve come to see him as, overall, an average to above average goalie.

From what I’ve been reading lately, it sounds like almost a foregone conclusion he is moving and I don’t quite understand why?

Outside a couple of goals I thought he had a decent playoffs and his stat line certainly can’t be nit picked over the 5 playoff games as a whole, what’s going on that everyone seems to be talking as if he’s a goner? I feel like I missed something here.

Not a foregone conclusion, but I'd say it seems pretty likely he goes. His contract situation along with having a tough season are probably the reasons. He's simply not a player we'll be able to re-sign next off-season so probably better to get an asset/assets for him in a trade and take a shot at the deep goalie UFA/RFA pool and trade market.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

James Mirtle put out a list of players Dubas was apparently trading and this is where it has started.

He likely knows squat and if he does know anything Shanny better find out who is dropping names and put a stop to it. He never knew anything before or never was insider. Whatever a insider is. Rumour mongers for click bait is a good definition.

I don’t read the athletic because they give free read for a week and then constantly try to take your money off your card. Thats what they did to me for a free weeks read anyways.

That is literally how 99% of subscription services are.

 

[Joey Hoser]

He's over 30, a pending UFA, was the second or third best goalie in every post season series he's played for us, and he's coming off his worst year in several.

Plus there is an unusual amount of capable goalies available this off season.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

That is literally how 99% of subscription services are.

So you are thinking that makes it right that you signup for a trial and that gives them the right to take money without permission. I went to my member of parliment and complained. You can bend over all you want. I dont

 

[Menzinger]

It's coming out from a lot of the more trustworthy Media guys that the Leafs are shopping him, and it's happening with enough frequency that looks like it's serious. When there's smoke there's fire.

Imo his inconsistent playoff performances + the potential to have a starter making less money thus saving the team extra capspace is a good motivator

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's no guarantee he goes, but there are a few reasons it's being discussed:

1. Andersen just had a bad year. It's possible he rebounds but it's possible he doesn't.
2. He still has a good league-wide reputation, and he only makes 1 million cash on a 5 million cap hit next year, making him likely more valuable to other teams in the current financial environment than he is to us.
3. Re-signing him may be difficult next year, and it would be a chance to acquire assets for him.
4. The UFA goalie market is strong this year, so there are potential alternatives that may not be available next year.
5. The expansion draft is next year, which usually knocks loose goalies in trade during the preceding year.
6. If we can get a cheaper cap hit on our starter, it opens up space to add to the rest of our team.
7. It's been reported that he's potentially available.

 

[ThaiTanicDK]

I dont understand the Lehner hype at all. He has one above average season while Andersen have had 3 seasons with 66, 66 and 60 games played and a SVS% at .918-.920. Okay ill admit, in 19-20 he played 50 games and only had a .909 but cmon man this season has been all kinds of wacky and using the stats is borderline stupid.

Its crazy reading some of this stuff.

 

[Menzinger]

James Mirtle put out a list of players Dubas was apparently trading and this is where it has started.

He likely knows squat and if he does know anything Shanny better find out who is dropping names and put a stop to it. He never knew anything before or never was insider. Whatever a insider is. Rumour mongers for click bait is a good definition.

I don’t read the athletic because they give free read for a week and then constantly try to take your money off your card. Thats what they did to me for a free weeks read anyways.

I think regardless of how one feels about the Athletic articles, they do seemingly have a few connections to the Leafs front office. One of their staff writers used to work for Dubas on the Marlies and some of the guys working in the Leafs stats department seem to be frends (or at least know) some of the Athletic guys too.

So whole I'd agree that folks should always take insider gossip with a grain of skepticism, I wouldn't say these guys are completely outside the Leafs bubble when it comes to this kind of info

 

[1specter]

James Mirtle put out a list of players Dubas was apparently trading and this is where it has started.

He likely knows squat and if he does know anything Shanny better find out who is dropping names and put a stop to it. He never knew anything before or never was insider. Whatever a insider is. Rumour mongers for click bait is a good definition.

I don’t read the athletic because they give free read for a week and then constantly try to take your money off your card. Thats what they did to me for a free weeks read anyways.

Lol what? Mirtle is on good terms with Dubas as he was an early supporter of the hockey analytics community and has generally favoured Dubas in his pieces. He's also got the inside scoop on a few things as he has other connections like Cam Charron who works for the Leafs stats department. Mirtle is the most reliable source when it comes to the Leafs at this point. To say he doesn't know squat is just wrong.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I dont understand the Lehner hype at all. He has one above average season

He has a higher career SV% than Andersen... He's had one season below 0.920 in the last 5 years, and in 3 of those 5 years, he was playing behind a team with bottom 10 defensive results. He's 0.928 in the playoffs over that time.

 

[Buds17]

To me, it seems odd to make a goalie change coming off of his performance during this postseason in particular. He is a pending UFA now though. Could perhaps argue that Andersen wasn't a Dubas addition to the team. Still, he plays quite an important role in comparison to the others that have been moved. There just seems to be enough chatter about replacing him to envision that it could in fact happen.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

This is farthest thing from rocket science to know Leafs were out there with Freddy, AJ and Kappy. Dubie tells the other teams GMs they are available and what would you give me for them. Those GMs talk to their scouts about said players to get reports/thoughts. Those scouts then talk amongst themselves about guys who they answer questions about to their GMs. The lions share of these scouts reside here in Ontario/GTA. It is da easiest thing to speculate on. Does anyone ever say "this guy is being traded? No" But people who have kids in system and who went through the system themselves and are friends with these scouts/advisors all know what is going on. But can anyone come out and say Freddy is being traded - No. But sure as h*ll Freddy's agent knows exactly what is going on even if Dubie is trying to keep him in da dark.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for da scribes/media types not to learn about it from many hockey people too.

And this is not inside information it is just how our system works.

 

[Guy Boucher]

If he has a good year and (finally) a good playoff, you won't be able to afford him as a UFA.

If he struggles and has a bad year, then you missed your opportunity to move him for some assets and potentially make a change in a goalie rich off-season.

 

[ThaiTanicDK]

mehhh

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Andersen will command a raise in a year that the Leafs won't be able to afford, so his time is up. The Leafs may as well get an asset for him now. He's not so good that the Leafs have to keep him for this year, and his salary even now could be better allocated

 

[AllDay28]

So you are thinking that makes it right that you signup for a trial and that gives them the right to take money without permission. I went to my member of parliment and complained. You can bend over all you want. I dont

bend over =/= reading comprehension

 

[LeafsNation75]

Andersen will command a raise in a year that the Leafs won't be able to afford, so his time is up. The Leafs may as well get an asset for him now. He's not so good that the Leafs have to keep him for this year, and his salary even now could be better allocated

With the salary cap remaining flat at $81 million because of Covid-19 that's another reason why they are considering trading Andersen. If everything was normal and the salary cap was going up we might be having a different discussion about trading him.

 

[Nooodles]

Every story teller says he's one of the best on the market, Hans the rumors around him.

 

[Buds17]

I dont understand the Lehner hype at all. He has one above average season while Andersen have had 3 seasons with 66, 66 and 60 games played and a SVS% at .918-.920. Okay ill admit, in 19-20 he played 50 games and only had a .909 but cmon man this season has been all kinds of wacky and using the stats is borderline stupid.

Its crazy reading some of this stuff.

I agree to an extent. Some of Lehner's numbers are slightly better (career SV%), but he's also accomplished that across fewer games. He also has less playoff experience. I'll grant that he is playing in big games now and is also a bit younger. I'd be fairly surprised though if he doesn't re-sign with VGK considering how much he is currently playing. It's not exactly the Price-Halak scenario in Montreal from years back, with Lehner being a pending UFA here.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think he is as good as gone with all these chatter. Even Laine is apparently on the market.

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m okay with walking away from Andersen if something makes sense. We seem to be in no mans land with him at the moment, best tender since Belfour, but also someone you’re not convinced can take us all the way. With our cap constraints as well I’m sure the organization is wondering if we can get away with a tandem on the cheap.

 

[Tak7]

Several insiders have said the Leafs are shopping him just to see what the market is like.

He has 1 year left on his deal.

You aren't resigning him, because a) he's 31, and b) you won't be able to afford his $7M+ ask

There's major concerns that he won't be able to get back to his regular season best (he was below league average last season), and he's never been a consistent playoff goalie here. He's choked when it's mattered most. So, you either keep him, watch him struggle again, and lose him for nothing.

OR

You trade him now, get something tangible in return, and try and nab a decent goaltender in free agency/trade for cheaper than Fred, save some money under the cap, and potentially run a tandem with him and Jack Campbell.

If that doesn't work, at worst, you fail in the playoffs again. But I don't think the Leafs have the luxury of bringing a pending UFA back who can net them some decent returns.