Our Toronto Maple Leafs - An Offensive Juggernaut

[HockeyThoughts]

A guy has played 426 NHL games and you want to call him a 30-goal scorer based on his highest 128 game segment and forget the rest.

All inclusive, that makes him a 19-goal scorer, trending down.

No, his most recent 128 game segment.

You do realize players have the ability to grow and have their talents evolve and improve right? He was undrafted and only became a regular NHLer in 07/08 at age 23. As his comfort level in the NHL grew, his role on the New Jersey Devils greatly expanded.

His ice time trajectory is as follows:

07/08: 12:01 TOI/G - 00:33 PPTOI/G (9G-22pts in 81GP)
08/09: 12:03 TOI/G - 01:31 PPTOI/G (17G-32pts in 82GP)
09/10: 14:26 TOI/G - 02:22 PPTOI/G (20G-43pts in 82GP [prorated from 46GP])
10/11: 13:37 TOI/G - 01:39 PPTOI/G (12G-18pts in 82GP)
11/12: 16:21 TOI/G - 03:03 PPTOI/G (30G-46pts in 80GP)
12/13: 17:35 TOI/G - 03:33 PPTOI/G (26G-41pt in 82GP [prorated from 48GP])

By his final season with the Devils, Clarkson had earned his way to being:
-1st in goals and 1st in PPG and T1st in GWG
-3rd in points
-2nd in hits among forwards (3 hits off of 1st)
-5th in ice time among forwards

The point is, Clarkson has come a long way since being the physical bottom 6 forward he was in his first few seasons. The last two seasons (ie. 128GP) have seen him being utilized as a top 6 forward, as we can only assume he will be utilized with the Toronto Maple Leafs and are thus the most relevant stats to look at when considering what impact he will have on our roster.

 

[zeke]

They don't score lots because of a high shooting percentage.

They score lots because they are a team made up of players who have scored lots for every team they've played for. They score lots because they have lots a d lots of scoring talent.

I don't know whether they will take lots of shots or not, but i know they will score lots of goals this year, because they always have.

I would recommend not listening to a stat that tells you that all these players will suddenly forget how to score.

 

[napoleon in rags]

Oh I like this thread!

Juggernaut. I like the sound of that.

 

[7even]

They don't score lots because of a high shooting percentage.

They score lots because they are a team made up of players who have scored lots for every team they've played for. They score lots because they have lots a d lots of scoring talent.

I don't know whether they will take lots of shots or not, but i know they will score lots of goals this year, because they always have.

I would recommend not listening to a stat that tells you that all these players will suddenly forget how to score.

Lupul was a 0.57 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

JvR was a 0.51 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Clarkson was a 0.4 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Franson was a 0.35 PPG player before joining the Leafs.


There's nobody in this line up who was a big time scorer before joining the Leafs outside of Kessel and Phaneuf. All the other guys have had their first real success here.

 

[Purity*]

Lupul was a 0.57 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

JvR was a 0.51 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Clarkson was a 0.4 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Franson was a 0.35 PPG player before joining the Leafs.


There's nobody in this line up who was a big time scorer before joining the Leafs outside of Kessel and Phaneuf. All the other guys have had their first real success here.

This.. and I highly doubt Clarkson's production would drop being on a line with Lupul and Kadri, he has no problems doing the dirty work for that line, which means Kadri and Lupul doing less dirty work which = more time for puck magic Clarkson also loves post-whistle scraps and fights, he will allow Kadri's pest game to reach new levels, he will be mentioned with the likes of Brad Marchand and PK Subban in no time

 

[seanlinden]

Lupul was a 0.57 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

JvR was a 0.51 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Clarkson was a 0.4 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Franson was a 0.35 PPG player before joining the Leafs.


There's nobody in this line up who was a big time scorer before joining the Leafs outside of Kessel and Phaneuf. All the other guys have had their first real success here.

Good point, although in the case of JvR/Franson, you can attribute some of the growth in offensive output from simple development.

That being said, with the way the Leafs are playing now, it's sort of hard to envision them scoring substantially more goals with Clarkson in the lineup. Raymond has obviously been the signing of the year so far, but one would have to assume he'll find his way onto the 3rd line with Dave Bolland and Josh Leivo, and of course off the powerplay.

The crazy thing is -- if the Leafs can get Kulemin back in the lineup, that top 9 is pretty ridiculous in terms of depth.

 

[8816 others]

Team USA Kessel pic + Xmen Last Stand Juggernaut photoshop job was what I had envisioned for this thread but Chris Hadfield juggling in space is good enough for me.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Which segment do you want to believe?

The bigger sample size.

Seriously, how you could try to make that argument with a straight face... I'm dunno man.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

No. Remember the first period where we had two shots? Remember the rest of the game when we started shooting?

Bowen said it best: "if the Leafs had scored on every shot they took that period, they'd be up 2-1." We were on pace for 4 shots halfway through the 2nd. You can't win like that, even with a team of Sidney Crosbys. Shots are important Zeke. Deal with it.

THAT you shoot isn't really important. What kind of shots you take is. When the Leafs finished 29th overall, they were almost the top team in the league for shots. Look at the game by game shot charts and look how often (despite being outshot) the Leafs dominate in shots from high quality areas.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Top offensive team with no #1 center, and also no #1 center cap hit.

#1 center = overrated.

We need another Phaneuf.

 

[zeke]

Lupul was a 0.57 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

JvR was a 0.51 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Clarkson was a 0.4 PPG player before joining the Leafs.

Franson was a 0.35 PPG player before joining the Leafs.


There's nobody in this line up who was a big time scorer before joining the Leafs outside of Kessel and Phaneuf. All the other guys have had their first real success here.

Clarkson hasn't even joined the team yet so he's irrelevant.

JVR and Franson both experienced expected boosts in production from increased minutes and PP time. JVR was a 40-45pt pace producer in ~14mpg and secondary PP time with the Flyers, and has been a 55-60pt pace producer in ~19mpg and primary PP time with the Leafs. Franson was a 30-35pt pace producer in ~15mpg and secondary pp time the the Preds, and has been a 45-50pt pace producer in ~19mpg and primary pp time with the Leafs. None of that is unexpected.

Lupul is the one example which you are right about. His scoring has jumped a huge amount as a leaf for no apparent reason. Possibly just a shooting percentage effect, though he always had a good sh% before. You ask him, and he credits his career turnaround to new workout regimes, skating techniques, and huge work ethic increase after his back infection almost ended his career.


But regardless, even looking at career scoring numbers, this is a team that is going to be a good scoring team, no matter what.

Career 82gm paces (Last 3yr paces in brackets):

Kadri (23): 22gls/53pts (27gls/61pts)
Kessel (26): 30gls/62pts (36gls/85pts)
Lupul (30): 26gls/53pts (37gls/85pts)

Bozak (27): 19gls/46pts (21gls/51pts)
VanR (24): 23gls/45pts (28gls/53pts)
Clarkson (29): 19gls/33pt (29gls/45pts)

Bolland (27): 18gls/42pts (20gls/39pts)
Raymond (28): 18gls/40pts (18gls/37pts)
Kulemin (27): 17gls/41pts (10gls/36pts)


Phaneuf (28): 15gls/46pts (14gls/45pts)
Franson (26): 8gls/35pts (7gls/43pts)

Gardiner (23): 6gls/30pts (6gls/30pts)
Rielly (19): 0gls/41pts (0gls/41pts)

Ranger (29): 5gls/28pts (0gls/16pts)
Gunnar (27): 4gls/25pts (3gls/23pts)



Even if you believe that the recent surges in Kessel, Lupul, Kadri, JVR, Franson are flukes, this team will STILL be a good offensive team even if they regress to league averages. Of course, I don't think it's smart to think that young players like Kessel, Kadri, JVR, Franson will regress to what they were as 21 year olds, and we should probably just accept that they are very talented young kids coming into their own.

Lupul does stand out as the one fluky looking guy.....but I have a hard time believind that anyone who watches him play thinks he's gonna be slowing down any time soon.



I have a lot of respect for the Shot Metrics, and it is absolutely true that most every high scoring team also puts up lots of shots. There is no arguing that. This does not mean, though, that the stats are perfect, or even really close to perfect.

You see, the Leafs aren't the only team in the league that has been able to be an elite scoring team this year and last despite low shot numbers:


12-13

TB: 3.13gpg (7th), 26.8shpg (26th)
TOR: 3.30gpg (5th), 25.9shpg (30th)

11-12

TB: 3.06gpg (3rd), 27.6shpg (24th)
TOR: 3.02gpg (6th), 26.3shpg (28th)


Nobody is going to predict that the Bolts' scoring will drop off, because everyone is willing to acknowledge their elite offensive talent.

The difference is that everybody is afraid to acknowledge the Leafs' scoring talent for some reason. They just can't get themselves to admit that the Leafs' have elite talent players.

 

[mix1home]

I know it's early, but if we can find some way to sustain our performance I think it is POSSIBLE that we lead our conference in goals. This is especially the case if Crosby gets injured at some point like he does every year.

Not to suggest anything, but we are playing Pens on Saturday. hm...

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Leafs are a very odd team, were a team that takes very little shots yet we're always amongst the top teams in scoring, the lesson to take here is we have an unreal shooting %. Zeke you can argue all you want this team will score lots of goals and if they keep up their shooting % then yes you're right, however as a whole the Leafs have been terrible this year for the most part, don't let their 7-3-0 record fool you because its very deceiving out of those 10 games I'd say we've been equal to dominant 4 of those ten games ( Montreal, Edmonton, Nashville, Anahiem ) the rest we have been embarassed in, only real reason we are where we are is because goaltending has been elite, if we were to even get average goaltending we'd be fighting it out with the flyers for last place in the conference.

While the Leafs haven't been great this year, this is way off.

You think we've been embarrassed in 6 games? Really? I suggest you have a look at where the shots were taken from in those games. We have been dominated in 2 games (PHI-CHI) and that's it.

 

[mikebel111*]

we actually had a live video at my high school Bert Church High School and talked to chris hadfield just last year. that was awesome!

 

[mikebel111*]

The bigger sample size.

Seriously, how you could try to make that argument with a straight face... I'm dunno man.

The same way he rips on Carlyle when in reality he is like every coach who will make mistakes.

 

[Ari91]

THAT you shoot isn't really important. What kind of shots you take is. When the Leafs finished 29th overall, they were almost the top team in the league for shots. Look at the game by game shot charts and look how often (despite being outshot) the Leafs dominate in shots from high quality areas.

I think the concern is looking at the stat individually, not comparing it to how many shots the other team has taken. I completely agree that shot quality is important and it's something that isn't taken into account when stats are compiled. I don't care much if a team outshoots us but it's a little naive to think it's okay for a team to regularly go through 30 minutes of a game having only registered 4 shots. Here's the thing about quality scoring chances - they don't always turn into goals. I think the discussion can now be turned from being outshot to simply looking at how many shots the Leafs are able to generate for themselves. They don't need 30+ shots a game but I don't see how they can pull off winning games (especially if we're talking playoffs) if they get into a habit of only mustering 13-15 shots on net. I know that they had a decent night last night with the shots for (and against), but with the way that game started, it looked like it would be another game similar to Minnesota except on the losing end of it this time.

 

[Goonface2k14]

Since the emergence of Kadri and JVR last season, the Leafs have been able to put out a very quality top-6, as far as forward offense goes. The problem is they often end up in a wide open game with their pinch happy defense, and it gives the opponent way too many scoring chances as well. Fire wagon hockey, gotta love it.

On the topic of low shot totals: Does anyone keep track of quality scoring chances, rather than just shots? That, albeit a somewhat subjective measure, would be an interesting stat to review. We'd get to see all the times they just shot wide, or hit the post or generated a quality chance but never got the puck towards the net (*cough*Tyler Bozak*cough*). It's pretty amazing the goals they're scoring on such low shot and puck possession totals. I guess part of it is poor puck possession (*ouch*) or they don't settle for as many long perimeter shots as most other teams do. My hope is that over the course of the regular season these things will correct themselves.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

It still baffles me to see so many Leafs haters. They can make the finals, and they'll still say that the team is horrible. I guess you just can't fix stupid. Anyway, I hope Clarkson will play well. He's a hard worker, and should provide a bit of extra scoring to an already potent offense.

No matter what, Leafs are serious team this season. I like their style.

Leafs 7-3-0 in 10 games. Projected over 80 games ( 80 for simple math ) that's 56 wins for the season. They'll have 2 games to spare. Sounds pretty good to me!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Since the emergence of Kadri and JVR last season, the Leafs have been able to put out a very quality top-6, as far as forward offense goes. The problem is they often end up in a wide open game with their pinch happy defense, and it gives the opponent way too many scoring chances as well. Fire wagon hockey, gotta love it.

On the topic of low shot totals: Does anyone keep track of quality scoring chances, rather than just shots? That, albeit a somewhat subjective measure, would be an interesting stat to review. We'd get to see all the times they just shot wide, or hit the post or generated a quality chance but never got the puck towards the net (*cough*Tyler Bozak*cough*). It's pretty amazing the goals they're scoring on such low shot and puck possession totals. I guess part of it is poor puck possession (*ouch*) or they don't settle for as many long perimeter shots as most other teams do. My hope is that over the course of the regular season these things will correct themselves.

The ESPN gamecast feature is useful. The Nashville game is a good example. Toronto got outshot 36-26, yet a glance at the picture shows that most of the Nashville shots came from the perimeter and based on that picture, the Leafs outplayed Nashville by a good margin.

Click on the link below, scroll down a bit, click on "P Penalty" (to only see location of goals and shots), then click on the black oval picture and you will see what I mean.

Then, if you want to see a case where Toronto got outshot and ouotplayed by a wide margin, look up the Chicago game, not a pretty sight.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=400484296

 

[Goonface2k14]

The ESPN gamecast feature is useful. The Nashville game is a good example. Toronto got outshot 36-26, yet a glance at the picture shows that most of the Nashville shots came from the perimeter and based on that picture, the Leafs outplayed Nashville by a good margin.

Click on the link below, scroll down a bit, click on "P Penalty" (to only see location of goals and shots), then click on the black oval picture and you will see what I mean.

Then, if you want to see a case where Toronto got outshot and ouotplayed by a wide margin, look up the Chicago game, not a pretty sight.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=400484296

Yeah thanks, I've looked at those before and it does give you a decent idea of where shots were taken from, but it still doesn't tell the full picture. I guess you just have to watch the games themselves and decide for yourself how many chances they're generating, and if they're lacking, determine whether they're being dominated by the other team, or if they're more selective with their shots, or if they have poor finishers, or a combination of things.

Regardless, they've continually found ways to win, they've come back from deficits on most nights, and to me that's a sign of a good team that has good scoring depth. And now we get Clarkson into the lineup, which should hopefully boost the entire team. Maybe they'll all feel energized by his return, and the buck the trend immediately.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I think the concern is looking at the stat individually, not comparing it to how many shots the other team has taken. I completely agree that shot quality is important and it's something that isn't taken into account when stats are compiled. I don't care much if a team outshoots us but it's a little naive to think it's okay for a team to regularly go through 30 minutes of a game having only registered 4 shots. Here's the thing about quality scoring chances - they don't always turn into goals. I think the discussion can now be turned from being outshot to simply looking at how many shots the Leafs are able to generate for themselves. They don't need 30+ shots a game but I don't see how they can pull off winning games (especially if we're talking playoffs) if they get into a habit of only mustering 13-15 shots on net. I know that they had a decent night last night with the shots for (and against), but with the way that game started, it looked like it would be another game similar to Minnesota except on the losing end of it this time.

If you look at the Minnesota game, the exact same thing happened. People got mesmerized by the shot totals but if they looked at the shots from quality areas, the difference in shots on goal was 2.

Yes those other shots CAN go in but history shows they rarely do. Yes that doesn't account for if it was a two on one or a screened shot or what have you but consider this: people are ranting and raving about puck possession and shot totals. If the Leafs are regularly outchancing teams with shots from quality scoring areas, what does that probably tell you about their possession in quality areas?

Would we like more shots? Sure why not. Better odds of getting lucky. That said, I'd rather they create their own luck by putting themselves in the best positions to succeed, which is exactly what they've been doing. If people here would rather watch the 29th place Leafs, fill your boots. I'll take this version.

 

[SNLeafaholic]

.

I know it's early, but if we can find some way to sustain our performance I think it is POSSIBLE that we lead our conference in goals. This is especially the case if Crosby gets injured at some point like he does every year.[/QUOTE]

Buddy..The Leafs have no issue scoring goals.it is mind blowing at how they score with so little shots on net.!!! but of course the naysayers talk crap about us giving up too many shots on net and no credit is given to the scoring prowess that this team has..with Clarkson,Kulemin and Fraser coming back..we will see a different team for sure..a better team

 

[BiggestLeafsFanEVER*]

.


Buddy..The Leafs have no issue scoring goals.it is mind blowing at how they score with so little shots on net.!!! but of course the naysayers talk crap about us giving up too many shots on net and no credit is given to the scoring prowess that this team has..with Clarkson,Kulemin and Fraser coming back..we will see a different team for sure..a better team

I know, i just think it would be cool if we led the entire conference especially the way the haters complain like our forwards are no good just because we don't have a true 1c.

 

[Muston Atthews]

A guy has played 426 NHL games and you want to call him a 30-goal scorer based on his highest 128 game segment and forget the rest.

All inclusive, that makes him a 19-goal scorer, trending down.

How is he trending downwards from 19 goals if he was on pace for 30 the past two seasons. That just makes zero sense

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Special teams is a big reason for our success.

Looking at last season and this season we take a lot of penalties but we can generate a lot of PPs with Carlyle's system.

Last season we scored 31 PP goals (9th most in the league). Well only being scored on 19 times on the PK (2nd best in the league). This +12 in special teams I believe was tied with San Jose for the best special teams differential in the league. Note I didn't include short-handed goals for or against.

Corsi rating doesn't take into special teams. With Clarkson/Kulemin soon to both be in the line and strong possession cycle players I expect us to improve in this category and for the team to be able to generate chances through puck possession instead of always to rely on run and gun 5 on 5 offence.