Our Goalie Situation

[Muffin]

People are just upset following the series loss. Grubauer getting injured and Francouz forgetting how to be a goalie get blown up into demands for instant answers to a question no one should really be asking.

It sucks that Grubauer got injured when he did, but until he shows that his groin will be a recurring issue, I don't see the need to panic on him. And while Francouz didn't make any friends with his miserable performance, it's not like anyone could have predicted his implosion following an excellent regular season.

Both guys deserve the benefit of the doubt. There isn't a pressing need to go out and shop for a new goalie, let alone two. It's ridiculous. Once some time has passed and people get off their emotions following the loss, I think we'll see a lot less of these suggestions.

If injuring his groin 3 times in the same season doesn't do it for you, I don't know what will.

 

[Pokecheque]

It's not "panicking" to question the current goalie situation. The Avs currently have an injury prone starter who's merely been above-average when healthy, and a backup with a lot of fundamental flaws who, for reasons we still don't know, completely and totally imploded in the playoffs.

I fully expect Sakic to just go with Grubauer/Francouz for one more season, even though I have serious reservations about that. If indeed he makes a move to try and upgrade the goaltending I'll be surprised.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I'm not a real big fan of spending to get another marginal goalie here. Pay up to get the best or shore up the depth (which I'd prefer getting a high end prospect). Grubs having injury issues sucks, but when he's playing, he can be as good as any patch option we are talking about. Frank was a big let down, and I wouldn't want to enter next year without somebody to challenge him... but he's the most likely player to stay out of Grubs, Hutch, and him if the Avs make a move.

To me, Gibson should be plan A, B, and C... Then Elvis D. Then Askarov E (I know he doesn't solve the issue next year, but it is a long-term solution).

I’d love Elvis to go with Grubauer.

 

[Forceberg]

For the record, the main reason I'm happy with our goaltending situation is that Grubauer was 5th in the league at even strength save percentage among goalies who played at least 20 games last season. The only goalies ahead of him were Khudobin, Rask, Kuemper, Allen and he tied with Jarry. Francouz, meanwhile, was tied for 21st with Raanta, Halak, Koskinen, and Varlamov. He was also ahead of Hart, Korpisalo, Andersen, Georgiev, Price and Gibson, to name a few.

the AVS played 2 out of 4 goalies in the playoffs, who were better and had a hard time scoring against them. They won a series because Arizona was bad and lost because Dallas was good enough and had a goalie.
So YES an upgrade should happen if possible.

 

[Richard88]

I'm not a real big fan of spending to get another marginal goalie here. Pay up to get the best or shore up the depth (which I'd prefer getting a high end prospect). Grubs having injury issues sucks, but when he's playing, he can be as good as any patch option we are talking about. Frank was a big let down, and I wouldn't want to enter next year without somebody to challenge him... but he's the most likely player to stay out of Grubs, Hutch, and him if the Avs make a move.

To me, Gibson should be plan A, B, and C... Then Elvis D. Then Askarov E (I know he doesn't solve the issue next year, but it is a long-term solution).

What high-end goalie prospect(s) would you target?

 

[majormajor]

Some things to consider:

-- Goalies can and do recover from bad stretches of groin injuries. Bobrovsky had several groin injuries between his Vezinas, changed his training strategy and stopped having them.

-- Grubauer is younger than Markstrom and Lehner.

-- Grubauer's career numbers are significantly better than Markstrom's. Keep in mind there is a lot of year to year variation. There is no way to guarantee high quality goaltending.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Some things to consider:

-- Goalies can and do recover from bad stretches of groin injuries. Bobrovsky had several groin injuries between his Vezinas, changed his training strategy and stopped having them.

-- Grubauer is younger than Markstrom and Lehner.

-- Grubauer's career numbers are significantly better than Markstrom's. Keep in mind there is a lot of year to year variation. There is no way to guarantee high quality goaltending.

You have to take into account a few things when looking at Markstrom‘s and Grubauer’s numbers.

- Markstrom has had a much tougher work load the last three seasons.

- Markstrom has played on a worse defensive team throughout his career.

- Markstrom had some terrible numbers early in his career that bring down his career save % a bit.

 

[henchman21]

What high-end goalie prospect(s) would you target?

Demko, Samsonov, Sorokin, Primeau, and Oettinger.... 3 of them are probably near impossible to get (Samsonov, Sorokin, and Demko), Primeau and Ottinger would be difficult and costly. This route is probably 80% the cost of just grabbing Gibson from Anaheim.

 

[Murzu]

Demko, Samsonov, Sorokin, Primeau, and Oettinger.... 3 of them are probably near impossible to get (Samsonov, Sorokin, and Demko), Primeau and Ottinger would be difficult and costly. This route is probably 80% the cost of just grabbing Gibson from Anaheim.

Want to give a guess on Gibson's value?

 

[majormajor]

You have to take into account a few things when looking at Markstrom‘s and Grubauer’s numbers.

- Markstrom has had a much tougher work load the last three seasons.

- Markstrom has played on a worse defensive team throughout his career.

- Markstrom had some terrible numbers early in his career that bring down his career save % a bit.

Sure, but if you're going to make a huge investment in Markstrom (any long term deal at $5.5m+) you'd want him to have done very very well in that tougher harder job. And the only year he did that and turned heads was this year. Prior to that he was just okayish. He might outperform Grubauer next year or he might be worse, we really don't know.

 

[henchman21]

Want to give a guess on Gibson's value?

1st, 2nd/3rd, and A-/B+ prospect... Anaheim won't want to really give him up, will have to overpay.

 

[Murzu]

1st, 2nd/3rd, and A-/B+ prospect... Anaheim won't want to really give him up, will have to overpay.

I'd definitely give 2020 1st, 2021 2nd & Conor Timmins if that's what it takes. Not sure if Timmins qualifies as A-/B+ prospect. Or are we talking Byram/Newhook territory?

Then shoot Grubie to Toronto for 2021 2nd after they have moved Freddie.

 

[Pokecheque]

Anyone know what the Eagles plan to do? Just re-up Miska for another year and hope Werner becomes a good AHL starter?

 

[henchman21]

Or are we talking Byram/Newhook territory?

That is somewhere in the Newhook/Timmins territory. Anaheim has also liked Kaut and Bowers in the past, so they'd be on the Timmins side. It would probably be 1st/3rd/Newhook or 1st/2nd/B+. There might be extras around it (another pick, fringe prospect) to level, but that would be the basic idea.

 

[LTC Pain]

Anyone know what the Eagles plan to do? Just re-up Miska for another year and hope Werner becomes a good AHL starter?

Annunen???

 

[henchman21]

Annunen???

Sticking in Finland next season.

 

[duckbear]

The goaltending issue is such a difficult and unexpected one. Normally I have real strong opinions about what Sakic should do one way or another, but I dunno about this one. Going into the post-season with the regular season numbers of both goalies we looked to be in a pretty good spot. How that's changed..

For me, when I saw Grubauer's injury I thought - "well thats the end of his career with the Avs." It was such a routine shot -- and a repeat injury. I just don't see how we can return and have confidence with a goalie that can be injured like that. I'm not sure of his history (has he had groin surgery? or just injuries?) but unless they can fix him I don't see how we can even bring him back as a #1B because if our #1A goes down, how do we trust that he doesn't as well, and all of a sudden Michael Hutchinson is our starting goalie?

Francouz looked great in the regular season but was so terrible in the playoffs I almost can't believe an injury was the main cause. Obviously the Avs know more here, and I won't hate to have him back if based on the information they have, they elect to keep him around. But man, from watching on T.V. it looks like this guy's gotta go too, because he was a train-wreck and it looked mental rather than physical.

For the additions, we obviously need to identify if we need one or two guys. I see the obvious rumours but I hate the idea of Murray, Markstrom, Fleury, UFAs, etc. They just have their own very serious question marks, and I wouldn't want to trade one issue for another. Even Gibson (who I really do like the idea of) had really poor numbers last year relative to Grubauer and Francouz. Yeah he's on a worse team, but it would suck to pay a pretty penny for any of these guys and have them come in and provide .907 goaltending. One guy who is interesting to me is Andersen. His numbers weren't great either last year, and TML seem tired of him. He'd presumably be cheaper thans Gibson since he's only got a year left on his contract, and if Grubauer can get fixed via surgery a Andersen/Gru #1A/#1B would look great.

 

[Richard88]

That is somewhere in the Newhook/Timmins territory. Anaheim has also liked Kaut and Bowers in the past, so they'd be on the Timmins side. It would probably be 1st/3rd/Newhook or 1st/2nd/B+. There might be extras around it (another pick, fringe prospect) to level, but that would be the basic idea.

Gibson is an elite goalie in his prime and signed to a great contract throughout our cup window, and if we can get him without giving up Byram or Newhook I'd be all over that.

2020 1st + 2021 2nd + Timmins...... then recover the 2nd by trading one of Grubauer/Francouz (or include one of them in the Gibson trade if Anaheim prefer that).

 

[Pokecheque]

I'd be all for it if you can get Gibson...but if he lets an elite franchise goalie go for something as insubstantial as two picks and an extremely iffy prospect, Murray is even dumber than I thought.

Also, I feel the need to remind everyone that Gibson has had some rather concerning injury issues of his own.

 

[shadow1]

I am not sure what's up with Gibson but he has drastically fallen off the last year and a half or so.

The Ducks are bad, but these are not the stats of an elite goalie (which Gibson for sure was at one point):

Date	GP	W	L	O	GAA	SV%
2020	51	20	26	5	3.00	.904
1/1/19 - 3/6/20	75	31	37	7	3.06	.905

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you put any stock into Goals Saved Above Average, Gibson was at a -8.66 this season (right below him was Hutchinson at -9.30).

He was also tied for second in the NHL with 10 games of sub-.850 SV% goaltending.

 

[Avs44]

I see little about Markstrom that makes him more appealing than Grubauer. He's a 30 year old who will be fishing for a big contract. He's never started over 60 games in his career.

He also has quite the injury history himself. In 2017 he had season-ending knee surgery. Before the break this year, in February, he took another knee injury that held him out for 6 weeks (with another surgery). In the playoffs this year, the reason Demko started is because Markstrom had a groin injury. He's not exactly proven himself to be more durable than Grubauer.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If the cost to get Gibson was just a 1st + 2nd + Kaut + Bowers... I'd like to think Joe was already driving to the airport in Denver to pick Gibson up.



I think it would almost certainly take Newhook, and maybe even Byram, along with that 1st rounder. They have basically 0 motivation to move him, one of the best goalies in the league and on a pretty phenomenal contract that brings him up to his 32 year old season(So basically just at the end of his prime starting years).

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I see little about Markstrom that makes him more appealing than Grubauer. He's a 30 year old who will be fishing for a big contract. He's never started over 60 games in his career.

He also has quite the injury history himself. In 2017 he had season-ending knee surgery. Before the break this year, in February, he took another knee injury that held him out for 6 weeks (with another surgery). In the playoffs this year, the reason Demko started is because Markstrom had a groin injury. He's not exactly proven himself to be more durable than Grubauer.

The reality of it all is, we're not likely to get a guy who actually has significant appeal over Gruby. Most goalies in the league have some sort of injury history that could ramp up at any moment really. And, there's just not that many guys in the league who are legitimately better then Grubs.


Grubs last 3 years in the league now(Last one with Washington + Two with us)... His numbers overall are towards the top in the league.


The stats are as follows over the last 3 years(For all goalies with at least 100 starts):


- 8th in sv% at .918
- 7th for GAA at 2.54
- 10th, for % of games started with a 90% or better sv%(62.9%)

Out of 36 goalies who meet the 100 games criteria, so basically the 36 goalies who have spent considerable time as the go to starter goalie in the last 3 years. And Gruby ranks Top 10 in all categories that IMO most accurately grade a goalies performance and not the teams performance(GAA is kind of a mix of both).


He's a good goalie. He really is. I get the concerns with injuries, but before this year injuries weren't a concern with him and there's a reasonable possibility they wont continue to be going forward either.


EDIT: Just to add a bit more context... His playoff numbers are pretty much the same thing.


Over the last 3 years, for goalies in the league with at least 10 playoff games, Gruby ranks 9th in sv% at .917(Tied with Vasilievsky, Hellebyuck, and Holtby btw), 8th for GAA at 2.36, and he's 11th for % of games above .900 at 61.9%.

Those stats was out of 21 Goalies who have been the starter in the playoffs for at least 1 run in the last 3 years.


So again, roughly average numbers(Slightly above) in the playoffs as well, and very similar numbers to some of the widely considered elite goalies in the league right now(Vasi and Helly are two of the best in the business at the moment).

 

[Chiarelli]

1st, 2nd/3rd, and A-/B+ prospect... Anaheim won't want to really give him up, will have to overpay.

if Timmins fits as that A-/B+ do this trade yesterday.

 

[Pokecheque]

Just reminding people, including myself, of happier times. For all the flack Grubauer is getting (again, including myself here), he really was stellar in the playoffs against Calgary.

I was looking up those OT winners and was reminded that MacKinnon's game-winner on the rush would never have happened if Grubauer hadn't made a HUGE save at the other end seconds before.



Of course there was also the Left Pad Miracle he had against Backlund as well.