Speculation: Our Contender Window

[Foppa2118]

Good points all around.

My working hypothesis is that it is a necessary but not sufficent criteria to define a “contender”. In other words, if you achieve it you might be a “contender” but if you don’t you clearly aren’t.

I think that's probably the best way to look at it with a limited sample, or until there's some data that suggests otherwise.

I wonder if there are more of these bubble teams that have 4 series wins in a row as well though?

LA could be an interesting case for both. They were probably the best example of a poor regular season team, that could win the Cup if they just got into the playoffs. The fact they won four series in a row (essentially) both Cup years is kind of interesting.

It could either be an example of why they were a contender the whole time, or an example that most playoff teams, and even bubble teams, can win four series in a row during the regular season.

 

[EdAVSfan]

The Avs currently have 2 players signed past Mack’s contract. Until it becomes more who’s staying, and for how much, it’s impossible to say that the window is longer than the current 4 years.

There’s simply too much uncertainty.

Yes, we can project, and hope and guesstimate. But ultimately, none of it is in stone.

Can the window of contention last past 4 years? Of course! Do we know for sure? Absolutely not.

 

[qwdmqioo1]

It looks like a potentially solid controller, but I feel like as a pc controller it is hurt a bit by the lack of a touchpad or grip buttons.
Personally, I think the "most advanced controller ever" would need to have at least gyro, touchpad(s), and grip buttons at the minimum.

 

[Tweaky]

It looks like a potentially solid controller, but I feel like as a pc controller it is hurt a bit by the lack of a touchpad or grip buttons.
Personally, I think the "most advanced controller ever" would need to have at least gyro, touchpad(s), and grip buttons at the minimum.

 

[The Abusement Park]

It looks like a potentially solid controller, but I feel like as a pc controller it is hurt a bit by the lack of a touchpad or grip buttons.
Personally, I think the "most advanced controller ever" would need to have at least gyro, touchpad(s), and grip buttons at the minimum.

Did you get lost?

 

[henchman21]

I don't know what is going on, but that post deserves a like.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I don't know what is going on, but that post deserves a like.

Toss a like to your witcher,
O' HFBoard of plenty

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Voted more than 4 years because I believe in the defence long term. I don’t think it’s much more than 4 years, but I could see them contending a year, or two after that if things break the right way.

It’s pretty likely that MacKinnon and Rantanen take a step back by then, but Makar, Girard, and Byram should all be in their prime.

 

[Richard88]

Voted more than 4 years because I believe in the defence long term. I don’t think it’s much more than 4 years, but I could see them contending a year, or two after that if things break the right way.

It’s pretty likely that MacKinnon and Rantanen take a step back by then, but Makar, Girard, and Byram should all be in their prime.

Newhook, Kaut, Bowers, and Timmins will also be in their prime 4 years from now which should offset any drop-off from the top line.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

No team in the league has a longer window atm.

Hard to believe that nearly 30% believe the max window this team has is 4 years or less.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

No team in the league has a longer window atm.

Hard to believe that nearly 30% believe the max window this team has is 4 years or less.

I think the poll actually started a while ago, so some people may have changed their mind after watching the team this season and seeing the growth of the prospect pool.

5 years is a ways away from now so a lot can change, but the Avs certainly have the pieces to still be good then, it’ll just be really important they properly develop their young players and prospects.

 

[Richard88]

No team in the league has a longer window atm.

Hard to believe that nearly 30% believe the max window this team has is 4 years or less.

It might take a little "retool" in 2023 to resign Byram and Mackinnon, but that shouldn't require more than trimming some secondary scoring such as Donskoi (who's contract is up in 2023 anyways) and maybe Burakovsky. Hopefully by then Kaut can develop into a top 6 forward and get locked in with term at a low aav.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Newhook, Kaut, Bowers, and Timmins will also be in their prime 4 years from now which should offset any drop-off from the top line.

Kaut and Bowers won't offset any drop off from the top line. Newhook might but who knows yet. Once Mack and Mikko start to decline we're in trouble unless we really hit it out of the park with some upcoming draft picks.

 

[Richard88]

Kaut and Bowers won't offset any drop off from the top line. Newhook might but who knows yet. Once Mack and Mikko start to decline we're in trouble unless we really hit it out of the park with some upcoming draft picks.

In 4 years:

Mackinnon 28
Rantanen 27
Makar 25
Girard, 26
Byram 22
Newhook 23

I don't see why that team can't be a contender for at least another 2 years beyond that. Much older players than that have won Conn Smythe's and been dominant in the playoffs.

 

[The Abusement Park]

In 4 years:

Mackinnon 28
Rantanen 27
Makar 25
Girard, 26
Byram 22
Newhook 23

I don't see why that team can't be a contender for at least another 2 years beyond that. Much older players than that have won Conn Smythe's and been dominant in the playoffs.

I’m not saying 4 years is the cap. I’m just saying that we don’t necessarily have anyone to replace Mack or Mikko, which obviously is very hard to do. Newhook looks great right now but I mean I don’t really see him being a Mack replacement. This team lives and dies by Mack and once he isn’t able to do what he does, it’s going to negatively effect this team.

 

[henchman21]

The Cap is still the issue, and that actually looks worse now than it did. By the time MacK's next contract rolls around, we are looking at a 13-14m per deal and probably dealing with a flat (or decreasing) cap the next two seasons before maybe rising to high 80s in 2023. Makar is probably a minimum $8m per contract. Landy is going to be a minimum $7m contract. So 2023 you're looking at MacK $13m, Makar $8m, Landy $7m, Rants 9.25m, and Girard at $5m. That is 42.25m between 5 players. That leaves 47.75m for 16-18 players assuming a $90m cap. If Byram ends up as good as the Avs need him to be to contend long-term... we will be probably looking at $7m for him. So basically $50m between the final 15-17 players... where the Avs will need 3 more impact forwards with none under contract now... 15m there between 3 is probably on the extreme low end. Now up to $65 and 25m to spend for a complete bottom 6, 13th F, 4-7D, and 2 goalies. On the goalie front say one prospect works out and one of Frank/Grubs is here for $5m total, likely a low total. Now down to 20m for 9 spots. If Timmins ends up being our #4 guy and he gets a bridge, let's say $3m. Down to 17m for 8 final spots. The #3C market UFA is over $5m now... can't go down that route, so counting on Bowers, well he will be out of his ELC and to his bridge deal. If he ends up Compher level (and we frankly need better), there is minimum 3.5m. Kaut needs to be at that level too. 10m for final 6 spots now.

It gets tight very quickly, even with low assumptions... and even then there isn't reprieve. Say Newhook ends up a #2C and doesn't start his contract until 21-22, well a year after MacK gets his extension... we're looking at $8+m for Newhook to re-up. The year after that, Rants is back up for his extension, and he's going to look to 14+. The Avs will have to find another ~11-12m in room within 2 seasons if that happens. Keeping top talent won't be the issue, it is going to be keeping quality depth when the cap is an issue. All teams who have success run into it and have to re-tool. Some come back, some don't.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I’m not saying 4 years is the cap. I’m just saying that we don’t necessarily have anyone to replace Mack or Mikko, which obviously is very hard to do. Newhook looks great right now but I mean I don’t really see him being a Mack replacement. This team lives and dies by Mack and once he isn’t able to do what he does, it’s going to negatively effect this team.

The team lived and died by MacK last year.

In the second half of this season the defence was the strength of this team. It’s not going to be all about MacK moving forward. Certainly he’ll be the best player, but he won’t have to carry the team as much as he gets older.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Not buying the cap excuse. Nearly every single contender has very little cap space and many still manage to get it done year after year.

As long as the Avs play it smart and don't hand out bad contract they will remain a contender for a long time.

They will have to trade some solid players along the way, like they did this summer with Barrie. However, that won't mean they all of a sudden stop being a contender.

I would be worried if the team was run by a fool but Sakic has been as good as any GM over the last few seasons.

 

[henchman21]

As long as the Avs play it smart and don't hand out bad contract they will remain a contender for a long time.

The Avs don't have the worst contracts in the game right now, but EJ, Cole, Donskoi, and Calvert are not really good values. EJ is especially bad. Landy will certainly be a bad contract. It will be okay for the first 2-3 years, but could get ugly on the wrong side of 30. Burkie also has a real opportunity to be a bad contract. Part of getting good and winning is that players end up earning bad contracts. MacK is currently at a $6m savings that lasts 3 more seasons. Simply take that advantage away from this team right now, and they are a cap team that has some gaps. It certainly will go away in 2023. The window doesn't necessarily close, but it will certainly cause a reboot that gets more difficult each subsequent year. Every Cup contender has had to reboot at different times... each one of them takes a step back. Some recover (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Boston)... some don't (LA, Rags, Detroit, Vancouver, Ducks). The Avs don't have the luxury of cap circumvention to hold players under their market cap hit now either. The teams that have recovered, have all benefited from that. When part of that went away for Chicago (Toews and Kane's big deals), they haven't been able to recover.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

4 years is an optimistic window.


We've got 2, maybe 3 years beyond whatever you call the rest of this season. After that, a retool will have to take place. A shame some cant see that, hopefully Joe makes the right moves to put us in the best position to win before that retool begins.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Some good points.

The cap is certainly going to be a challenge to navigate after MacKinnon’s next deal.

I also agree that there will need to be retooling/reshaping of the roster over the next 5/6 years. Similar to Tampa. They seem to be in perpetual cap trouble, but they work their way through it every offseason.

The key for the Avs is to identify the guys they can’t afford to loose and fill out pieces around them.

Pittsburgh, Boston, and Washington are a few teams that have been contending for a long team. Pitt and Boston in particular have done a really nice job of having players trickle on to the roster through their development system. That’s what the Avs need. If they can keep a core together of MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Girard, Newhook, and Byram they should be able to fill spots around that group. If their high-end prospects don’t pan out well that would certainly be a big blow to the longevity of this window.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Honestly the only key for the Avs is drafting.


They have a quality core that can extend a window for 7-8 years... The problem is, that core is going to start to cost considerably more cap to keep around. And in order for us to remain competitive, we'll have to find quality home grown talent that can fill out the depth pieces for as cheap as possible, as well as likely some continued strong ELC support through the contention as well.


We have a couple guys who should help on the ELC front for the next 2-3 years, in Byram/Timmins/Newhook/Kaut... But beyond that, if we want to continue to compete and be legit contenders, we're not going to be able to pay guys like Calvert 2.8M to be a 4th liner, or PEB 2M to be a 4C... or potentially even pay the likes of Donskoi or Compher 3.5-4M to be 3rd line guys. We're going to need home grown, under 1M talent to replace those guys and actually play well in the roles. That might be the hardest part. Because Calvert for example is one hell of a fourth liner in this league, one of the very best. A hard player to replace. And it's those type of guys that can honestly push a team from pretender to contender.

 

[95snipes]

The idea of a window is silly IMO. Historically teams have made poor decisions, but doesn't mean we will.

As has been mentioned either directly or indirectly, the fate our next half decade-decade will depend on
a) how long Mack is a premier player
b) how good Byram becomes. All we really need is for him to reach an Ekholm level. Different players, but you get my point
c) eventually we will need to hit on a late 1st rounder and in the later rounds

No one knows any of these answers to say for sure what our contention 'window' will be

Just to play along:

Washington

Contenders since 08, or at least '10. String of bad years in early-mid '10's due more to the clowns behind the bench than any apparent window. Since Trotz was hired, they were strong contenders. Some failures for sure, but they were always in the mix. They were successful due to strong drafting.

Pittsburgh

Contenders since 07 or at least 08. Fleury did more to ruin their cup chances to than any window. Also a major whiff in 2012 draft set them back.

Chicago

Made some extremely poor decisions in the later years of their runs and ultimately had an aging core not comparable to ours IMO. Keith/Seabrook/Sharp/Hossa are much older than Makar/Girard/Rantanen/Landeskog in the same stages of their contention timeframe.

LA

Not comparable to us in play style or Core makeup IMO. They had a brutal 2015 offseason that ruined any chances they had at sustained success IMO.

Tampa

They've been contenders since '15, at least, and I don't think that will change in the next few years.

San Jose

They never won, but they had a 15 year window of contention.

St Louis/Boston/Anaheim/Nashville are not comparable to us IMO.

I guess my point is that teams that are well managed, with elite cores, compete for long periods of time. Not 2-4 years. Will the Avs continue to be well managed? Who knows, but Sakic has my confidence going forward.

Though I would like to us push, not at all in, but a strong push to capitalize now and acquire another top 6 fwd or top 4 dman even if that means trading a 1st or prospects.

 

[Balthazar]

Getting rid of contracts like EJ, Donskoi, Calvert, Cole and Compher in a couple of years and replacing them with ELC's or cheaper players will get us a lot of mileage. We still have a lot of "luxury" contracts on this team, most of them are slightly overpaid UFA's that we signed because we didn't have depth in the system. This is the thing that has to change.

With that said, I wish we'd spend to the cap until the end of Kadri's contract to try to get the best team possible with this particular group. After that we'll need to re-tool but we'll remain contenders for at least as long as Mack is in his prime and the way Makar is playing solidified that.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not buying the cap excuse. Nearly every single contender has very little cap space and many still manage to get it done year after year.

As long as the Avs play it smart and don't hand out bad contract they will remain a contender for a long time.

They will have to trade some solid players along the way, like they did this summer with Barrie. However, that won't mean they all of a sudden stop being a contender.

I would be worried if the team was run by a fool but Sakic has been as good as any GM over the last few seasons.

This is just flat out not true.