@danielpalfredsson gave a great breakdown, very well done and thorough
Here is my take on things...
Roster Locks
-
Thomas Chabot,
LD1, barring an offersheet (which I think is quite unlikely)
-
Brady Tkachuk, LW1
-
Colin White, C2
Available, but at high cost:
- J.G. Pageau, C1: as said earlier, he is basically our captain at this point and is worth more to our organization than we could get back in a trade. If he makes it clear he doesnt want to return, then he could be dealt but I wouldn't be surprised to see him held on til the deadline even if he indicates he wont be back.
- Chris Tierney, C3: he had a good year last year an is young and cheap. I have my doubts about him but I doubt they would move him unless they were offered a really good deal for him.
- Cody Ceci, RD1: as said earlier, Ceci is an odd player in that he has been played like a #1D for years and has gotten a bad reputation as a result. I dont think they will trade him for a 2nd and I don't think they will get a 1st. I dont think we want to commit to him long term but I dont think we are willing to trade him for a 2nd just yet. If he signs a 1 yr deal, I suspect we'll get around that for him at the deadline anyway. Personally, I wouldnt be surprised to see it go down that way.
-
Dylan DeMelo, RD2: DeMelo was good for us and an amazing presence in the locker room. He is also very, very cheap and a good partner for Chabot. Coaches love him. I think he is in a similar boat as Ceci. Would we trade him for a 1st? Absolutely. But for a 2nd (or whatever would be offered for him), probably not worth a summer move.
-
Craig Anderson, G1: "high" cost... I could see him being dealt but we won't pay to get rid of him and I doubt we would trade him for nothing. We will need a goalie and he is a great vet and a guy who can at least provide a buffer for our young goalies. IF Nilsson is willing to re-sign short term or for cheap, maybe we try to move him somewhere thats a better fit for him.
@danielpalfredsson summed this situation up well too.
NHL/AHL
-
Christian Wolanin, LD2: almost certainly makes the team, and probably as a top 4. He is the best player in this group for sure (or at least he was this last year). Could play 82 games.
-
Christian Jaros, RD3: he is very unlikely to start outside of the top 6, but its possible. Could play 82 games.
-
Erik Brannstrom, LD5: incredibly talented and probably ready. I dont think he will get 82 games, but he will be a regular by the end of the season.
-
Max Lajoie, LD4: I could see him going either way. He will get NHL time but doubt he gets 82 games.
-
Rudolfs Balcers, LW3: he was good in Ottawa down the stretch and he has a lot of skill and speed. Not an elite skillset but smart, crafty, and above average in a lot of areas. I could see him playing 82 games and finishing amongst our top 6 forwards in scoring.
- Drake Batherson, RW4: he is ready, but maybe they let him get over-ripe. Doubt he plays 82 games.
- Logan Brown, C4: see Batherson
.
-
Max Veronneau, RW5: he looked good at the end of the season and is fast and works hard. Tough to tell but I think he has a good chance at making the team. Could play 82 games.
- Alex Formenton, LW4: he's gotten cups of tea with the team and is big, fast, and coming off a huge playoffs. I could see him making the team out of camp but doubt he plays 82 games.
-
Jonathan Davidsson, RW6: acquired in the Columbus trade, he apparently almost made the NHL last year. He was concussed near the end of the season but if he is healthy and has a good summer, I could see him making the team full time. Could get 82 games but I wouldnt bet on it.
-
Filip Chlapik, C5: a bit of a wildcard. He has fallen off of the map a bit. Apparently he showed a lot of improvement off the puck this season, but after an impressive pro rookie season where he posted 32pts in 52 games to lead Belleville, + a solid 20 game stint in Ottawa, he regressed a little, with his production stalling in the AHL + only 5 NHL games. He could get lost in the shuffle, he could get traded, or he could break out and play a large role for us. He is smart and skilled. Could be a good 3C or adequate 2C one day.
-
Jack Rodewald, RW7: he was a good player in the AHL for us and could fill a 4th line role if some of the above forwards dont earn a top 9 role.
-
Vitaly Abramov, RW8: skilled, fast, small. I think the hope will be for him to step up as a top scoring threat in the AHL and then maybe bring him up near the end of the year.
- Nick Paul, LW5: see Rodewald. Paul probably has the inside track. Could play 82 games but I doubt it.
- Marcus Hogberg, G2: he will probably be our backup but who knows. Also a threat of him heading to Europe.
-
Joey Daccord, G3: Dark horse for backup.
-
Filip Gustavsson, G4: will play a lot in the AHL... maybe he gets a cup of NHL coffee if he plays well
Dump 'Em:
Bobby Ryan, RW2... we won't retain and we're not desperate to get rid of him, but for the right deal (ehem, less money), we'd obviously be happy to move on. Still a serviceable player.
Zack Smith, LW2... see Ryan, but to a lesser extent re: serviceability.
Mikkel Boedker, RW3... I could see us retaining on him IF it would lead to us getting value back. He scored at a decent clip but he wasnt very good at all and he wasnt a good fit on our team. In a sheltered and specific role, he could be useful. I could see him being dealt with 50% retention with a late pick for a 3rd or something, but that would be the absolute max. Wouldn't be surprised if they just try to waive him.
Mark Borowiecki, LD3.. he's a great guy, great teammate, probably is a great guy to have in practice, and can play the odd shift. He's not a very good NHL D though. He won't be given away but the price wouldn't be too high either.
Ben Harpur, LD6... he has great physical tools but struggles to make plays and isn't nearly nasty enough. I could see him dealt for a midrounder, I could see him on waivers (where I think he would and should be claimed), I could see him playing 50 games for us.
Mike Condon, G5... my guess is he's traded for Clarkson or something. I think he's likely gone.
Key FAs:
Anthony Duclair, RW1: Duclair was awesome for us and I would be shocked if he isn't brought back.
Beyond that, dump 'em all, except maaaaybe...
Brian Gibbons, C/RW: for the right deal, maybe we take him on. He has very little leverage and if he tries to exert any, we'll walk away.
Anders Nilsson, G: see Gibbons.
Magnus Paajarvi, LW: I could see him being brought back as our 13th forward but I doubt it.
Depth chart:
J.G. Pageau, C1
Colin White, C2
Chris Tierney, C3
Logan Brown, C4
Filip Chlapik, C5
Brady Tkachuk, LW1
Zack Smith, LW2
Rudolfs Balcers, LW3
Alex Formenton, LW4
Nick Paul, LW5
Anthony Duclair, RW1
Bobby Ryan, RW2
Mikkel Boedker, RW3
Drake Batherson, RW4
Max Veronneau, RW5
Jonathan Davidsson, RW6
Jack Rodewald, RW7
Vitaly Abramov, RW8
Thomas Chabot,
LD1
Christian Wolanin, LD2
Mark Borowiecki, LD3
Max Lajoie, LD4
Erik Brannstrom, LD5
Ben Harpur, LD6
Cody Ceci, RD1
Dylan DeMelo, RD2
Christian Jaros, RD3
Craig Anderson, G1
Marcus Hogberg, G2
Joey Daccord, G3
Filip Gustavsson, G4
Mike Condon, G5