On Cody Ceci
-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.
My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.
I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.
If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.
On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.
My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.
Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.
-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.
-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.