Speculation: Ottawa Senators offseason plan

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
cody-ceci.png

On Cody Ceci

-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.

My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.

I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.

If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.

images

On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.

My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.

Jean-Gabriel-Pageau-deceptively-successful-for-the-Ottawa-Senators-e1449788256421.jpeg

Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.

-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.

-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.
 

Patagonia

Keep Whining
Jan 6, 2017
7,624
3,246
cody-ceci.png

On Cody Ceci

-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.

My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.

I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.

If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.

images

On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.

My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.

Jean-Gabriel-Pageau-deceptively-successful-for-the-Ottawa-Senators-e1449788256421.jpeg

Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.

-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.

-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.

Good analysis and have a few comments.
  • Ceci. Garbage and received a more than generous offer from the team. Sens are young and if not committed long-term should be moved far away from the team.
  • Goalies. There is no need to rush anyone with Mrazek and Varly being available, it could be a good bet to pursue them and if they play well flipped.
  • Chabot. It's unlikely a team would make an offer to sacrifice (assuming they have the picks) 4-1sts which is averaged over 5 years and not contract length or $10.1M+ per. The next tier would be 2-1sts, 1-2nd & 1-3rd, so any deal paying less than $7.1M @ 7 years could see a qualifying offer. EM is so cheap and would likely offer a Bridge Deal for half this amount.
Still lots of good prospects, but with the disarray involving management and ownership they need to keep building from within.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
Good analysis and have a few comments.
  • Ceci. Garbage and received a more than generous offer from the team. Sens are young and if not committed long-term should be moved far away from the team.
  • Goalies. There is no need to rush anyone with Mrazek and Varly being available, it could be a good bet to pursue them and if they play well flipped.
  • Chabot. It's unlikely a team would make an offer to sacrifice (assuming they have the picks) 4-1sts which is averaged over 5 years and not contract length or $10.1M+ per. The next tier would be 2-1sts, 1-2nd & 1-3rd, so any deal paying less than $7.1M @ 7 years could see a qualifying offer. EM is so cheap and would likely offer a Bridge Deal for half this amount.
Still lots of good prospects, but with the disarray involving management and ownership they need to keep building from within.

The reason I think Chabot could potentially be such a strong offer sheet candidate would be because a team signing him to an offer sheet could front load the contract and pay Chabot entirely in signing bonuses. It would make it more difficult for Ottawa to match, and could make Chabot attainable for two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd instead of four 1sts.

Offer sheet compensation will go up a little bit this season and next season as the cap rises. So right now a 1st/2nd/3rd maxes out at 8.118 x 5. Let's say it goes up to 8.5 within the next two off seasons. A team could go out and offer Chabot a 4 year 8.5M contract. It could be structured like 11/10/7.5/5.5 with almost 20 million in signing bonuses during the first 12 months of the contract (one payment on each July 1st).

I don't think it's going to come to that because the Senators have the same info we do, and they also have insight we don't on their own finances. So if the Sens realize Chabot could be signed to that kind of contract by a rival team, a contract that the Senators might match anyways, they might as well just pay him 8 million now over a longer term with less bonuses.
 
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Sen sational

Registered User
Mar 27, 2019
488
262
UFA
Dorion, at his year end press conference, advised that they had a lot of picks and prospects to plug into the team so they were unlikely to be active in the UFA market. If they did look UFA it might be 1 deal and wouldn’t be high end.

They have been trying to give prospects a year in the AHL to avoid rushing them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paajarvi and Gibbons back to fill spots in the NHL until prospects are ready to take those places. Putting P and G on waivers when prospects are ready wouldn’t be a big loss.

Sens have been linked to several European players so they are likely looking to fill needs without giving anything up.

Sens will have to move on from from at least 1 D, Harpur, Ceci, or Boro unless they keep Brannstrom and Wolanin in the AHL.
 

TheImpatientPanther

Registered User
Jan 17, 2013
28,540
25,519
Ontario, Canada
cody-ceci.png

On Cody Ceci

-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.

My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.

I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.

If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.

images

On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.

My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.

Jean-Gabriel-Pageau-deceptively-successful-for-the-Ottawa-Senators-e1449788256421.jpeg

Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.

-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.

-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.

Sounds like you could use Reimer as a tank commander? Get another top 5 pick. We could retain a million so he's down to $2.4 million (2 yrs left) while attaching a 2nd or 3rd round pick and prospect like Malgin (21yrs old/RW/C) or McCoshen (23yrs old/LD)
 

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
1,677
USA
They have a lot of young kids, so will likely look to build through that. They will have some cap stuff to work around and I don't see many UFA's being interested in joining that tire fire.

They've traded most of their players that they would so it'll hopefully for them quiet down a bit for a while.
 

Patagonia

Keep Whining
Jan 6, 2017
7,624
3,246
The reason I think Chabot could potentially be such a strong offer sheet candidate would be because a team signing him to an offer sheet could front load the contract and pay Chabot entirely in signing bonuses. It would make it more difficult for Ottawa to match, and could make Chabot attainable for two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd instead of four 1sts.

Offer sheet compensation will go up a little bit this season and next season as the cap rises. So right now a 1st/2nd/3rd maxes out at 8.118 x 5. Let's say it goes up to 8.5 within the next two off seasons. A team could go out and offer Chabot a 4 year 8.5M contract. It could be structured like 11/10/7.5/5.5 with almost 20 million in signing bonuses during the first 12 months of the contract (one payment on each July 1st).

I don't think it's going to come to that because the Senators have the same info we do, and they also have insight we don't on their own finances. So if the Sens realize Chabot could be signed to that kind of contract by a rival team, a contract that the Senators might match anyways, they might as well just pay him 8 million now over a longer term with less bonuses.

Teams could make this even more difficult for the Sens to match.

Offer Sheets compensation is based on 5 years, using the tier 2-1st, 1-2nd and 1-3rd. The limit is approx. $10.15M per or $50.74M total package, but Cap Hit is spread over 7 seasons or $7.25M Annual Cap which is about his market value.

I'm sure most teams could easily agree to the Cap hit, but front load a greater amount over 7 seasons to something like:
$10.74M, $10M, $9M, $8M, $4M, $3M, $3M, $3M

About 74% of the contract is paid over 4 seasons which most teams would be more than happy to pay. Doubt EM would even bother matching the term and large upfront load.
 

Petes2424

Registered User
Aug 4, 2005
8,048
2,323
cody-ceci.png

On Cody Ceci

-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.

My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.

I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.

If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.

images

On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.

My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.

Jean-Gabriel-Pageau-deceptively-successful-for-the-Ottawa-Senators-e1449788256421.jpeg

Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.

-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.

-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.

Good analysis. Welcome to Ottawa Zetterberg, Clarkson and probably a couple others.

They shouldn’t rush the Brannstrom’s and Wolanin’s of the world. Give them both about 20-30 games in the NHL, but still let them experience some success in the AHL and work on their games. Then see where they’re at this time next year and start adding piece by piece where they need it.

Mrazek might be a good one to pursue but I really can’t see anywhere else they should make it a point to add via UFA.
 

scallionjj11

FOREVERALFIE
Jun 10, 2009
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cody-ceci.png

On Cody Ceci

-It's been reported by Garrioch that the Senators do not want to go to arbitration with Ceci. They don't want him on a 1 year deal that takes him to unrestricted free agency. They either want a long term extension, or they want him traded.
-Ottawa radio personality Shawn Simpson claims that the Senators offered Ceci a 6 year 4.75M extension last off season, and Ceci turned it down. Shawn Simpson has NHL front office experience and was interviewed for the Senators A-GM position, so he has some credibility. Although, this contract was never reported else where by any of the big guys like McKenzie, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
-Ceci was sat at the deadline because a team was interested in him. It's not known how close a trade was to being consummated. Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh acquired Gudbranson in a trade the day after Ceci was sat, so it's possible that Pittsburgh might have been the team in on him.

My take? I think the Senators don't like the trade market for Ceci and feel he is worth a lot more than they are being offered. I think they would prefer to trade Ceci and are hoping that talks of a long term extension help give Ottawa leverage to elevate the offers of those interested.

I think the Senators backup plan is to sign Ceci to a back loaded deal and hope that with a new coach who isn't using him as a shutdown genius, his value can be rehabbed and he can be flipped before the big money years kick into his contract. I think they can use the threat of a potential 2020-2021 lockout as leverage to get Ceci to agree to a contract structured with very little money in the first two seasons. It's better for Ceci to have a low salary in 2020-2021 because if there is a lockout, he's not getting that cash.

If a team were offering a 1st for Ceci, I think he'd be gone by now.

images

On the goaltending situation
-Bruce Garrioch thinks Anders Nilsson will push for a 3 year contract, and that the Senators just won't do that. This might be a case of the Senators management passive aggressively sending Nilsson a message through the media.
-Nilsson's numbers were extremely strong during his first half here, but they regressed to .8XX type goaltending during his second half. At this point, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Nilsson to a long term contract unless it is at low backup money.
-Marcus Hogberg has taken a major step forward. He is not proven in the NHL but he was one of the top goalies in the AHL this season. He'll be 25 at the start of the season which means he is closing in on an age where if he cannot stick in the NHL, he's probably not going to.
-There were rumours that Hogberg has options in Sweden. This might be a ploy by his agent to try and leverage for a 1 way deal. Although, with how difficult it is to find goalies, it's likely that he'd remain in the NHL even if he were cut by the Senators, as he'd probably be claimed on waivers.
-It seems like Anderson isn't expected to be traded. His family lives in Florida full time, so if the Panthers miss out on Bobrovsky, and Luongo is sent away, maybe there would be a match there.
-Condon has been hurt all season. He apparently has had nagging hip issues his entire NHL career. This past season, he had a full scope of his hip, and had stem cells transplanted from his pelvis area. Sounds like fun. Condon seems to believe that he has put these injuries behind him.
-He makes 3 million next season in real money against a 1.4 million buried cap hit, so I could see the Senators trying to move him. A match might be a deal where the Senators take on a lot of cap without a lot of real money with the other team taking on the 1.4M cap with the higher salary. Maybe a trade with Vegas for Clarkson's insured contract?
-Joey Daccord, a 2014 7th round pick, recently signed with Ottawa. He's got a lot of fanfare after carrying a relatively new NCAA program on his back , but it's hard to know where he projects and how soon.
-Gustavsson who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Brassard trade seems like he is still pegged as the Senators goalie of the future.

My take? I would expect Nilsson to be released, the Senators to try and trade Condon's salary away (although he'll be intriguing to follow as a reclamation project elsewhere), and for Hogberg and Anderson to roll as the NHL pairing. It's possible that Daccord or Gustavsson could steal Hogberg's job by the end of the season. Hogberg looked great in the AHL, but has not done anything to prove that he will for sure be able to transition to the NHL.

Jean-Gabriel-Pageau-deceptively-successful-for-the-Ottawa-Senators-e1449788256421.jpeg

Other thoughts
-Pageau is a UFA. Thomas Chabot referred to him as captain in an Instagram comment. This has people speculating that he might be the next captain. Pageau apparently put a high price on his UFA years when Dorion negotiated with him two years ago, which is why he signed a 3 year contract that took up his remaining RFA seasons. The Senators don't have a lot of financial obligations, meaning that signing Pageau to a 3-4 year deal in the 4-5 million range might not be difficult. Pageau is the Senators best defensive forward. He also sets the tone with an unparalleled compete level. I don't know enough about how he is in the room to comment on him as captain from that respect, but looking at his on ice game, if the Senators can extend him, it makes sense.

-Pierre Dorion has discussed wanting to get a long term deal done with Thomas Chabot this summer. It would make sense. Locking down Chabot would help ease some of the anxiety fans have over whether the Senators can retain stars. Chabot will be an RFA in July 2020, but the Senators can extend him as soon as July 1st 2019. Given the increased chatter about offer sheets, and the constant speculation about Melnyk's finances, Thomas Chabot might be one of the most likely offer sheet candidates if he makes it to July 2020, so it makes sense that the Senators would try to get something done as soon as possible. Looking at past contracts for RFA defenseman, the market seems to be in the range of 10 percent of the salary cap for 7-8 years. That would be Chabot in the low 8 millions. I suppose it's possible the Senators could try to get him down to 5-6 years in order to lower his cap hit, but long term with the rising cap, I think that would be a huge mistake.

-Dorion has claimed that the Senators cap space and quantity of picks puts them in a position to trade up in the draft. Columbus making the conference final and pushing the pick from the 17-19 ball park all the way to the end of the first round might destroy this possibility. If the Blue Jackets fall to the Bruins, I think Florida might be a good place to look for a trade. Florida has the 13th pick and are in a position where they are rumoured to be going after some big money free agents. Luongo looks to be done as a starting goalie, he has a huge cap hit, and not a low of money owed. Even with Luongo's cap recapture, it would be better for FLA to have him bought out by another team. Perhaps the Senators and Panthers could make a deal similar to the one that sent Orpik to COL and then back to WSH? Ottawa would buyout Luongo, which would cost them six figures a year for six seasons, but also get them well over four million closer to the cap floor - while Florida would re-sign Luongo to a league minimum contract which even with the cap recapture penalty would free up considerable cap space for the Panthers while still allowing them to keep Luongo in the organization.


Thank you so much for the time and in depth analysis that you've put into this! Great read!
 
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Ivan13

Not posting anymore
May 3, 2011
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Cody Ceci is not garbage. He is a #5 defenseman, who can play top 4 in a pinch, but is being asked to play the toughest minutes imaginable without any support.
 

scallionjj11

FOREVERALFIE
Jun 10, 2009
2,275
680
East Coast
Good analysis. Welcome to Ottawa Zetterberg, Clarkson and probably a couple others.

They shouldn’t rush the Brannstrom’s and Wolanin’s of the world. Give them both about 20-30 games in the NHL, but still let them experience some success in the AHL and work on their games. Then see where they’re at this time next year and start adding piece by piece where they need it.

Mrazek might be a good one to pursue but I really can’t see anywhere else they should make it a point to add via UFA.

Wolanin is probably ready to be up for good now, he didn't look out of place at all at the end of the year and he's 24 already.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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Cody Ceci is not garbage. He is a #5 defenseman, who can play top 4 in a pinch, but is being asked to play the toughest minutes imaginable without any support.

The Senators created a monster with Ceci by overplaying him. They gave him top pairing minutes against top competition (top 30 in the league for two seasons straight, top 40 this season). They arguably played him like a number 1 defender for part of Boucher's time here.

He now has a case to be paid like a #2 or #3 type defender based on playing top pairing minutes against top pairing competition. He's not that kind of defender. It's rare for a defender to be deployed like he has for as long as he has when they aren't capable to play those minutes, because teams want to win. Minutes/competition/production are mostly what get defenders paid. A neutral arbitrator gave Ceci 4.35M for a single RFA year.

Personally, I see Ceci as a very solid #4. He can produce 25-30 points at even strength, which is exceptionally good. He cannot think enough to face the absolute top guys on a regular basis, but he is good enough to be deployed against the second lines of teams. The problem is, this kind of play gets a 3 year 4.5 million dollar UFA type contract. Ceci due to his inflated usage is in a position to ask for 5-6 years at 5.5-6.5 million.

It's possible that all 31 teams will say, you're not worth that, but I don't think he's going to settle for a low contract with Ottawa when he can wait a year and see if someone will pay him in a way comparable to how he has been deployed. Why settle for a low offer from Ottawa when he can see if there is a team willing to pay him like a top pairing RD?
 

Ivan13

Not posting anymore
May 3, 2011
26,141
7,095
Zagreb, Croatia
The Senators created a monster with Ceci by overplaying him. They gave him top pairing minutes against top competition (top 30 in the league for two seasons straight, top 40 this season). They arguably played him like a number 1 defender for part of Boucher's time here.

He now has a case to be paid like a #2 or #3 type defender based on playing top pairing minutes against top pairing competition. He's not that kind of defender. It's rare for a defender to be deployed like he has for as long as he has when they aren't capable to play those minutes, because teams want to win. Minutes/competition/production are mostly what get defenders paid. A neutral arbitrator gave Ceci 4.35M for a single RFA year.

Personally, I see Ceci as a very solid #4. He can produce 25-30 points at even strength, which is exceptionally good. He cannot think enough to face the absolute top guys on a regular basis, but he is good enough to be deployed against the second lines of teams. The problem is, this kind of play gets a 3 year 4.5 million dollar UFA type contract. Ceci due to his inflated usage is in a position to ask for 5-6 years at 5.5-6.5 million.

It's possible that all 31 teams will say, you're not worth that, but I don't think he's going to settle for a low contract with Ottawa when he can wait a year and see if someone will pay him in a way comparable to how he has been deployed. Why settle for a low offer from Ottawa when he can see if there is a team willing to pay him like a top pairing RD?

Very well thought out post. I agree wholeheartedly. Sadly for NHL franchises arbitrators are people who just don't look at the big picture and award contracts based on criteria that are both outdated and flawed, to begin with. He does not deserve a contract he is playing on right now, that is for sure, but if he is smart he would take a prove it deal with a well-balanced team and prove his worth. The problem might be that he has a heightened opinion on his game thanks to the role he was used in.
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Teams could make this even more difficult for the Sens to match.

Offer Sheets compensation is based on 5 years, using the tier 2-1st, 1-2nd and 1-3rd. The limit is approx. $10.15M per or $50.74M total package, but Cap Hit is spread over 7 seasons or $7.25M Annual Cap which is about his market value.

I'm sure most teams could easily agree to the Cap hit, but front load a greater amount over 7 seasons to something like:
$10.74M, $10M, $9M, $8M, $4M, $3M, $3M, $3M

About 74% of the contract is paid over 4 seasons which most teams would be more than happy to pay. Doubt EM would even bother matching the term and large upfront load.

I think we are in agreement about the possibility of a Chabot offer sheet.

It seems that there are two things we have a difference of opinion on. I think that you are severely underrating Chabot's market value. Any defenseman who has played as much as him and produced as much as him received between 10-11 percent of the salary cap on a 7-8 year contract. Seth Jones might be the only exception but that was a bit of a different dynamic because he spent two seasons not being used heavily in NSH and was traded (not because of his performance, but it does change the dynamic a bit). I would hope the Senators could get Chabot for something like 7.2 x 7, but that would be low based on historical comparable contracts. I'd expect something in the low 8 millions over 7 seasons or 7.2 x 6 years. I would prefer they lock him up 8 years even if it takes a higher AAV. Chabot is a superstar.

Also, if I recall, front-loaded contracts have to follow certain standards. Two of which are that they cannot vary by more than 35 percent year to year in salary, and the least expensive year has to be at least 50 percent of the most expensive year. (This doesn't apply to contracts that aren't front loaded).

While we do agree fundamentally that a front loaded contract for Chabot as an offer sheet is a threat to the Senators, I think we just disagree on how high Chabot's market value is. If Chabot wanted 7.25 x 7, I'm sure he'd be signed by Ottawa yesterday. That would be an A+ contract.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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Very well thought out post. I agree wholeheartedly. Sadly for NHL franchises arbitrators are people who just don't look at the big picture and award contracts based on criteria that are both outdated and flawed, to begin with. He does not deserve a contract he is playing on right now, that is for sure, but if he is smart he would take a prove it deal with a well-balanced team and prove his worth. The problem might be that he has a heightened opinion on his game thanks to the role he was used in.

I think the floor for him on the open market is something in the 4 million x 3-4 year range. Look at Kulikov getting that after a subpar year as one example (there are many). Pretty much anybody who is thought to maybe be a top 4 defender who hits July 1st will get that. I don't think it would be a bad contract for Ceci because in a worst case scenario, like absolutely worst, he'll be a #5 RHD who produce from the backend.

I just don't think he has any incentive to take a fair contract from the Senators. It just makes more sense for him top wait and see if someone else will be fooled into paying him as a #2 D on the open market, and if it doesn't happen, then he can fall back into one of those 3-4 years 4M type contracts.

I am not sure if the Senators like him as much as people think they do. I wonder if the Shawn Simpson rumour that the team offered him a long term deal was bogus. Maybe planted by the team to change his perception as a trade chip on the open market. I say this because if the Senators liked Ceci, there was no reason to go 1 year in arbitration. Ceci had 2 RFA years left, the Sens chose a 1 year term with the arbitration ruling.

The only reason to go 1 year was that he becomes easier to trade at the 2019 trade deadline because he becomes a more dynamic piece. A team acquiring him could have acquired him as a rental, with the intention of having him for 2 years, or with the intention of extending him long term in the summer.

Otherwise, it doesn't make sense to go 1 year because if he goes to arbitration again, 4.35M becomes the floor as his qualifying offer, and there's a chance he could get even more. If they went two years last summer, he would be cost controlled for 2 seasons, and they still would be in the exact same spot this upcoming summer where they could extend him long term or trade him to a team that will.

It seems like the only benefit to going 1 year instead of 2 was to make him a better trade chip at the deadline since he could have been a rental. To me, that seemed like a tip off to the Senators not wanting Ceci long term.

The prevailing rumour now is that they want him to agree to a long term deal or they want to trade him, but like I said in my original post, I wonder if this is a bit of a rouse to try and gain leverage in a trade with another team (leverage via the illusion that the Sens are in a position where they don't feel they have to trade him), or I wonder if the Sens will commit to a backloaded contract in hopes that they can rehab his value and trade him before he really has to get paid big time.
 
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Patagonia

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Jan 6, 2017
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I think we are in agreement about the possibility of a Chabot offer sheet.

It seems that there are two things we have a difference of opinion on. I think that you are severely underrating Chabot's market value. Any defenseman who has played as much as him and produced as much as him received between 10-11 percent of the salary cap on a 7-8 year contract. Seth Jones might be the only exception but that was a bit of a different dynamic because he spent two seasons not being used heavily in NSH and was traded (not because of his performance, but it does change the dynamic a bit). I would hope the Senators could get Chabot for something like 7.2 x 7, but that would be low based on historical comparable contracts. I'd expect something in the low 8 millions over 7 seasons or 7.2 x 6 years. I would prefer they lock him up 8 years even if it takes a higher AAV. Chabot is a superstar.

Also, if I recall, front-loaded contracts have to follow certain standards. Two of which are that they cannot vary by more than 35 percent year to year in salary, and the least expensive year has to be at least 50 percent of the most expensive year. (This doesn't apply to contracts that aren't front loaded).

While we do agree fundamentally that a front loaded contract for Chabot as an offer sheet is a threat to the Senators, I think we just disagree on how high Chabot's market value is. If Chabot wanted 7.25 x 7, I'm sure he'd be signed by Ottawa yesterday. That would be an A+ contract.

We actually agree on the possible deal for Chabot.

The only reason for using the $7.25M per is any long term deal offers needs to prorated over 5 years to avoid the higher Compensation of 4-1sts. He might want be agreeable to the financial security of 7 years.

Sens have that advantage to match or exceed any deal around $7.25M. It’s just not likely if front loaded or EM being so cheap willing to pay.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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9,269
Good analysis. Welcome to Ottawa Zetterberg, Clarkson and probably a couple others.

They shouldn’t rush the Brannstrom’s and Wolanin’s of the world. Give them both about 20-30 games in the NHL, but still let them experience some success in the AHL and work on their games. Then see where they’re at this time next year and start adding piece by piece where they need it.

Mrazek might be a good one to pursue but I really can’t see anywhere else they should make it a point to add via UFA.

Zetterberg would be a good target, as would Franzen.

Apparently Brannstrom is seen as NHL ready by Dorion. This is per Garrioch.

Wolanin is an NHLer IMO. It's just a matter of where he should play in the lineup. He was only sent back down to the AHL at the end of the season as a "rental" for Belleville to try and get them into the post season, he wasn't sent down because he wasn't NHL ready.

I don't think it's so much about not rushing players to the NHL, but I think the Sens need to be careful with their young defense, and not ruining them by forcing them to play way above their head too early in their career. The one benefit to keeping Ceci is they have a guy they can force out there against top pairings and not really worry about shell shocking him and ruining his career because they arguably have already done it. They don't have many defensemen capable of playing against top guys successfully.

I don't think any goalie is going to come here and I also don't think we're going to pay anybody. I could see the Sens trying to trade for a goalie with team control next season because Gustavsson probably won't be ready and I don't think Hogberg will blossom into an NHL starter. Anderson is a UFA and I would be surprised if he stays beyond 2019-20 because his family lives in Florida full time, and he was rumoured to want out as recently as last off season. I think the Sens will have to go the trade route to get a goalie if they need one at the end of the 2019-20 season because they aren't the hottest free agent destination. Even Craig Anderson originally did not want to come here when the Senators pursued him prior to Anderson signing with Colorado. It took a test run with Bryan Murray trading for him at the trade deadline however many years back for him to feel comfortable enough to sign here.
 

Sen sational

Registered User
Mar 27, 2019
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I think we are in agreement about the possibility of a Chabot offer sheet.

It seems that there are two things we have a difference of opinion on. I think that you are severely underrating Chabot's market value. Any defenseman who has played as much as him and produced as much as him received between 10-11 percent of the salary cap on a 7-8 year contract. Seth Jones might be the only exception but that was a bit of a different dynamic because he spent two seasons not being used heavily in NSH and was traded (not because of his performance, but it does change the dynamic a bit). I would hope the Senators could get Chabot for something like 7.2 x 7, but that would be low based on historical comparable contracts. I'd expect something in the low 8 millions over 7 seasons or 7.2 x 6 years. I would prefer they lock him up 8 years even if it takes a higher AAV. Chabot is a superstar.

Also, if I recall, front-loaded contracts have to follow certain standards. Two of which are that they cannot vary by more than 35 percent year to year in salary, and the least expensive year has to be at least 50 percent of the most expensive year. (This doesn't apply to contracts that aren't front loaded).

While we do agree fundamentally that a front loaded contract for Chabot as an offer sheet is a threat to the Senators, I think we just disagree on how high Chabot's market value is. If Chabot wanted 7.25 x 7, I'm sure he'd be signed by Ottawa yesterday. That would be an A+ contract.

Signing Chabot to a long term contract would: show the fan base that Ottawa is committed to signing their best players; high end players are willing to stay; existing players see the re-build progressing satisfactorily and want to be part of it. If they wait till the POHO is hired it could also be seen as "a fresh start".
 

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