Value of: Ottawa Senators Fire Sale

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Ottawa's entire roster minus Chabot and Tkachuk for be for sale.

Pretty much lol

I'd add White for sure as pretty much safe

Lajoie/Wolanin might be available for a young RD but probably nothing else short of clear overpayment

DeMelo would be available but his ability to play top pair with Chabot while making 900k is probably worth more to the Sens than to nayone else

After July 1st, maybe something around Bobby Ryan for Loui Eriksson? Once both players are paid their signing bonuses, Ryan's remaining salary = 15.5mill over 3yrs & Eriksson's remaining salary = 9mill over 3yrs.

I'm sure picks, or salary retention could be involved? Maybe the Canucks could offer another couple warm bodies to fill the roster like Sam Gagner & Tim Schaller (both expiring next season) to help the rebuild/2020 tank?

If the Sens dont sign Duchene or Stone I think Z. Smith for Eriksson maybe with some added pieces as you said, could make sense too

Smith is overpaid but he has been much better this year

 

[voyageur]

Duchene for Puljaarvi, and conditional (1/2).

Edmonton is desperate.

Mc David-Draisaitl, Duchy-Nuge might get the Oilers to the playoffs.

Stone to Vegas (Hague and 1st)

Dzingel for Bjorkstrand

Anderson for M. Smith and 2nd

That should put the fans to rest.

Tkachuk-C. White-Ryan
Boedtker-Tierney-Bjorkstrand
Batherson-Pageau-Puljaarvi
Paul-Z. Smith-Balcers
Keep Pajaarvi just to play with Puljaarvi.

Chabot-DeMelo
Hague-Ceci
Lajoie-Wolanin

M. Smith
Someone else

Should be enough to sell under 7 000 season tickets, and get a high draft pick.

 

[scallionjj11]

What's Ceci project to be?

Terrible

But seriously he can be serviceable in the top 4 if deployed properly

 

[milehigh11]

Mark Stone for Colorado’s 2019 1st + Martin Kaut.

I doubt Colorado trades for any UFA. They can go after Stone when he is a free agent where it only cost $$$. Keep the picks and young players. Colorado is not even a shoe-in to make the playoffs this year. And whats better than having 1 lottery pick is having 2..


This was the year for Colorado to see what the young players could bring.


They should be looking to trade Varlamov and give the job to Grubauer and Francouz

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I doubt Colorado trades for any UFA. They can go after Stone when he is a free agent where it only cost $$$. Keep the picks and young players. Colorado is not even a shoe-in to make the playoffs this year. And whats better than having 1 lottery pick is having 2..


This was the year for Colorado to see what the young players could bring.


They should be looking to trade Varlamov and give the job to Grubauer and Francouz

Why do you think Stone will be available July 1st? Any team willing to spend the assets to get him right now are also willing to spend to keep him.

 

[Kosty17]

Why do you think Stone will be available July 1st? Any team willing to spend the assets to get him right now are also willing to spend to keep him.

Any team that trades for him at the deadline still has to sign him in the offseason. Which is not a guarentee

Oops you said that, read it wrong. It’s up to Stone where he chooses to play next year tho is it not?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Any team that trades for him at the deadline still has to sign him in the offseason. Which is not a guarentee

They can sign him two seconds after they acquire him if both sides are willing.

If the acquiring team waits until the offseason to talk contract with him, he’s as good as gone.

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

After July 1st, maybe something around Bobby Ryan for Loui Eriksson? Once both players are paid their signing bonuses, Ryan's remaining salary = 15.5mill over 3yrs & Eriksson's remaining salary = 9mill over 3yrs.

I'm sure picks, or salary retention could be involved? Maybe the Canucks could offer another couple warm bodies to fill the roster like Sam Gagner & Tim Schaller (both expiring next season) to help the rebuild/2020 tank?

Seems like a useless trade to make? At least for whichever team is giving up extras

 

[Kosty17]

They can sign him two seconds after they acquire him if both sides are willing.

If the acquiring team waits until the offseason to talk contract with him, he’s as good as gone.

Yeah fair enough. Should be interesting to see what happens. But I don’t think Sakic is going to make that big move at the deadline.

 

[Patagonia]

Why do you think Stone will be available July 1st? Any team willing to spend the assets to get him right now are also willing to spend to keep him.

You're assuming Stone extends which is unlikely being this close to UFA and AVs owing the Sens pick.

AVs will simply wait until after the draft to purse Stone rather than make a trade. Sens are last overall with a very good chance the pick falling into a Top 5 selection. Here are the possible Top 5 choices (RW bolded):

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Dach
4. Cozens
5. Podkolzin

AVs would benefit regardless of any of these choices.

With 3 available Centres, Kaut/Compher could be the RW linemates. Losing the Draft Lottery could open the possibility with 2 of 5 being available RWs.

Stone might not extend if he's slotted as a 2nd liner for a few seasons and reduced to a pricey 3rd liner to give the youngsters a better opportunity. This has the possibility of being a complete disaster for the AVs and they should wait until UFA.

 

[innitfam]

Sutter at 30% retained + 2020 2nd for Pageau

 

[DaveMatthew]

I doubt Colorado trades for any UFA. They can go after Stone when he is a free agent where it only cost $$$. Keep the picks and young players. Colorado is not even a shoe-in to make the playoffs this year. And whats better than having 1 lottery pick is having 2..

Acquiring a guy like Stone, if Sakic has identified him as a key for that franchise becoming a contender, has a lot of benefits. The second Stone hits UFA, he's going to be wined-and-dined by several other teams. That introduces a lot of risk for Sakic, and the extra 3 months to negotiate could be very important. A guy can fall in love with a place in that time - just look at Kane in San Jose.

With that said, Sakic could likely even make the deal without giving up the Golden Goose 1st or Makar.

A package like:

Alexander Kerfoot + Connor Timmins + Martin Kaut + COL 1st would do it.

Dorion gets a roster player, two good prospects and a 1st to "justify" the deal to fans. ("4 pieces!" he'll say, smiling like a buffoon.)

Meanwhile, Colorado keeps their top prospect, still gets to draft Hughes/Kaako/Cozens and adds Stone to play with them, who's the perfect mentor (look what he's done with Tkachuk).

Next year, you could potentially add Stone, Hughes and Makar to a team with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog.

Sure, you could maybe still sign without giving up anything, but maybe without first experiencing Colorado, he doesn't even put them on his list?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Acquiring a guy like Stone, if Sakic has identified him as a key for that franchise becoming a contender, has a lot of benefits. The second Stone hits UFA, he's going to be wined-and-dined by several other teams. That introduces a lot of risk for Sakic, and the extra 3 months to negotiate could be very important. A guy can fall in love with a place in that time - just look at Kane in San Jose.

With that said, Sakic could likely even make the deal without giving up the Golden Goose 1st or Makar.

A package like:

Alexander Kerfoot + Connor Timmins + Martin Kaut + COL 1st would do it.

Dorion gets a roster player, two good prospects and a 1st to "justify" the deal to fans. ("4 pieces!" he'll say, smiling like a buffoon.)

Meanwhile, Colorado keeps their top prospect, still gets to draft Hughes/Kaako/Cozens and adds Stone to play with them, who's the perfect mentor (look what he's done with Tkachuk).

Next year, you could potentially add Stone, Hughes and Makar to a team with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog.

Sure, you could maybe still sign without giving up anything, but maybe without first experiencing Colorado, he doesn't even put them on his list?

That package you just suggested is a hell of a lot more than what Stone will actually return.

Unless he’s traded with an extension of course.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You're assuming Stone extends which is unlikely being this close to UFA and AVs owing the Sens pick.

AVs will simply wait until after the draft to purse Stone rather than make a trade. Sens are last overall with a very good chance the pick falling into a Top 5 selection. Here are the possible Top 5 choices (RW bolded):

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Dach
4. Cozens
5. Podkolzin

AVs would benefit regardless of any of these choices.

With 3 available Centres, Kaut/Compher could be the RW linemates. Losing the Draft Lottery could open the possibility with 2 of 5 being available RWs.

Stone might not extend if he's slotted as a 2nd liner for a few seasons and reduced to a pricey 3rd liner to give the youngsters a better opportunity. This has the possibility of being a complete disaster for the AVs and they should wait until UFA.

What if Mark Stone doesn't even consider Colorado, unless he experiences the city/organization first?

Would Tavares have been more likely to sign with SJ if he had played a couple months there, before hitting UFA? Maybe.

Stone will get the same money no matter where he goes. Having that extra time to sell him could end up being pretty important, especially for a non-premier market like Colorado.

 

[DaveMatthew]

That package you just suggested is a hell of a lot more than what Stone will actually return.

Unless he’s traded with an extension of course.

I think it's about right.

• An in-between 2nd/3rd liner who's young enough that he might "become more"
• Two good but non-premier prospects
• A mid-first round pick

Kovalchuk being traded is probably the closest comparable we have, albeit it a long time ago, and he returned:

Johnny Oduya (a top 4 roster defenseman)
Niklas Bergfors (a recent 1st rounder who just put up 27 points in 54 games - had potential if "given the chance")
Patrice Cormier (a recent 2nd round pick - at the time was a Timmins level prospect)
A 1st and 2nd

Those players or picks didn't end up panning out, but neither might Kaut or Timmins.

Or Hossa returned:

Angelo Esposito (1st round prospect during a season where he scored 69 points in 57 games in the Q)
Erik Christensen (equivalent to Kerfoot at the time)
Colby Armstrong (also equivalent to Kerfoot at the time)
1st round pick

So why is it off?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I think it's about right.

• An in-between 2nd/3rd liner who's young enough that he might "become more"
• Two good but non-premier prospects
• A mid-first round pick

Kovalchuk being traded is probably the closest comparable we have, albeit it a long time ago, and he returned:

Johnny Oduya (a top 4 roster defenseman)
Niklas Bergfors (a recent 1st rounder who just put up 27 points in 54 games - had potential if "given the chance")
Patrice Cormier (a recent 2nd round pick - at the time was a Timmins level prospect)
A 1st and 2nd

Those players or picks didn't end up panning out, but neither might Kaut or Timmins.

Or Hossa returned:

Angelo Esposito (1st round prospect)
Erik Christensen (equivalent to Kerfoot at the time)
Colby Armstrong (also equivalent to Kerfoot at the time)
1st round pick

So why is it off?

It’s off because parity in the league is bigger, the lottery is more wide open and GM’s are vocally open about how they’re less willing to give up futures in years past.

You can’t bring up trades from a decade ago and compare them to trades today. You can’t even compare trades from 2-3 years ago.

The league is getting younger which means players are making far more money coming off their elc’s That makes those elc years far more valuable than they used to.

Youth is valued more than we’ve ever seen and GM’s are catching on. It’s nearly impossible to find a comparable to the Stone trade because of how much the league has changed in recent years. For example Martin freaking Hanzal returned more as a rental two years ago than Stone likely will this year even though he isn’t half the player.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It’s off because parity in the league is bigger, the lottery is more wide open and GM’s are vocally open about how they’re less willing to give up futures in years past.

You can’t bring up trades from a decade ago and compare them to trades today. You can’t even compare trades from 2-3 years ago.

The league is getting younger which means players are making far more money coming off their elc’s That makes those elc years far more valuable than they used to.

Youth is valued more than we’ve ever seen and GM’s are catching on. It’s nearly impossible to find a comparable to the Stone trade because of how much the league has changed in recent years. For example Martin freaking Hanzal returned more as a rental two years ago than Stone likely will this year even though he isn’t half the player.

Well not really, it depends.

You're right that premier youth get more money coming of ELCs than before (guys like Eichel, Nylander, etc), but that has no barring on the trade value of mid-level prospects. Neither Timmins, Kaut or a mid-round 1st is a premier asset, and young assets of that calibre get traded all the time.

San Jose traded Josh Norris (who's arguably a better prospect than Timmins and Kaut), Chris Tierney (an equivalent player to Alex Kerfoot), a 1st, two 2nds and a couple "throw-ins" in Balcers and Demelo for a single season of Erik Karlsson.

Last year, Boston traded a 1st and a 2nd round prospect (+ some other crap) for Rick Nash, who's much less of a player than Stone.

So yeah, you'll probably never see a 2nd overall (premier asset) for Yashin type deal again, for example, but none of Timmins, Kaut or Kerfoot are premier assets.

Guys like that are traded all the time, at every deadline.

Ottawa won't get their own 1st or Makar back for Stone. But a package like Kerfoot, Timmins, Kaut and a mid-1st? Absolutely. There's not one sure thing in there.

 

[gianni]

Seems like a useless trade to make? At least for whichever team is giving up extras

Would pretty much be a money saving deal for Ottawa, as after July 1st, 2019 Loui Eriksson will be paid 9 mill over 3 years, but w/ a cap hit of 6mill/year. Whereas Bobby Ryan is still owed 20.5mill (I mistakenly put 15.5mill initially) over 3 years w/ a cap hit of 7.5mill/year. Differential of 11.5million real dollars vs just a 1.25mill cap hit difference.

 

[780il]

I'd have Interest in Stone, Dzingle and Pageau and maybe Smith. What would it take?

Some baseline offers:

Pulju + Spooner + Benning + Manning + 1st + 2019 and 2020 2nds for Stone (extends)

2nd + Spooner + 5th for Dzingle/Pageau (Dzingle extends)

Maybe Spooner straight up for Smith? (Sens get 1 less year on the contract plus slightly smaller cap hit)

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

Would pretty much be a money saving deal for Ottawa, as after July 1st, 2019 Loui Eriksson will be paid 9 mill over 3 years, but w/ a cap hit of 6mill/year. Whereas Bobby Ryan is still owed 20.5mill (I mistakenly put 15.5mill initially) over 3 years w/ a cap hit of 7.5mill/year. Differential of 11.5million real dollars vs just a 1.5mill cap hit difference.

why would the canucks do this though? unless they're getting a decent pick or two back. + gagner and schaller?

 

[780il]

Oilers will take em all!

Lucic + Puljujavi + Reider + 1st + Spooner
for
Dzingle + Ryan + Pageau

cap evens out.

I'd do it

 

[gianni]

why would the canucks do this though? unless they're getting a decent pick or two back. + gagner and schaller?

Only if the Canucks strike out in free agency would it make much sense for them...the team could definitely use more gritty players that can chip in offensively.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Ottawa should try to win so we don't see Colorado with Hughes to go along with Rantenen, MacKinon & Landeskog, signed every team but Colorado in the western conference.

 

[veganbruin]

I don’t know why Ottawa won’t deal within the division but Boston would make a great trade partner. I think a JGP or Dzingel would be really good targets.

 

[branch]

You're assuming Stone extends which is unlikely being this close to UFA and AVs owing the Sens pick.

AVs will simply wait until after the draft to purse Stone rather than make a trade. Sens are last overall with a very good chance the pick falling into a Top 5 selection. Here are the possible Top 5 choices (RW bolded):

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Dach
4. Cozens
5. Podkolzin

AVs would benefit regardless of any of these choices.

With 3 available Centres, Kaut/Compher could be the RW linemates. Losing the Draft Lottery could open the possibility with 2 of 5 being available RWs.

Stone might not extend if he's slotted as a 2nd liner for a few seasons and reduced to a pricey 3rd liner to give the youngsters a better opportunity. This has the possibility of being a complete disaster for the AVs and they should wait until UFA.

This is now an Avs draft thread