GDT: Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks - 3PM - TSN5/TVAS - The Dynamic Zuo™ Return Edition

[Tuna99]

I missed the game aside from about 10 mins to end the first, but it is striking how different the opinions are here compared to the tone of Martin and the players post game comments.

Perhaps Jacques is just trying to keep things positive in the room, knowing since ~Dec that your team is done for the year has to be rough.

It is a bit concerning that the level of play hasn't been as good the last few games, got to get back to the basics of playing winning hockey, we're a lot better when we're playing strong d through the NZ and capitalizing on turnovers, as well as going to the dirty zones and pouncing on rebounds.

For sure he’s trying to keep things positive but also his road record as coach and teams road record is a complete disaster.

What can he say when it’s clear he doesn’t have the solution for how this team wins on the road? He can’t criticize them because they haven’t grasped his concept of how to win on the road so they aren’t even playing his road system yet and until they grasp it fully he can’t come down on them because it like critiquing a small baby for not knowing how to read yet - these players still need a lot more time to learn how to play hockey on the road.

Until this team can win on the Rod they are going nowhere - can’t improve if you can’t win on the road

 

[jbeck5]

With the goaltending we have we need to play flawless hockey, and, well, we didn't.

But "not flawless" doesn't mean "bad" necessarily, and I could see why the players and the coach weren't overly negative about the loss.

After the initial push by Chicago, we mostly took the play to them, and outshot them 2 to 1. Granted, we didn't have too many great scoring opportunities (too much sloppiness when it mattered), but there still was some territorial dominance throughout most of the game.

If you play this game 100 times, we probably win it 60 or 70 times. But against a team like Chicago this should be a minimum, I guess.

I think it's the quality of the opponent. Sure, every team could lose to every team on any day, but we seem to keep losing to bottom teams when we need the win.

If we doubled up on shots against Colorado but lost, people would be impressed.

I remember the good old Jacques days with Hossa, Alfredsson, redden, etc. when these guys played expansion teams like Atlanta or crappy teams like Tampa, it was almost always a win. They didn't get blown out against the last place teams like 2 games ago.

But I guess that's the difference between +30 to +70 teams vs -15 teams like us.

These games just go to show you we're nowhere near where we need to be.

 

[Tuna99]

It's not bad as a game in general. If we laid out this exact game against Colorado, people would be impressed that we doubled them in shots.

It's the fact it's a weaker team and the good teams generally don't get blown out by bad teams on the scoreboard.

I mean, it could happen in an game, but generally speaking.

Take Jacques old senators when he was coach. The teams with redden, Hossa, Alfredsson, etc.

Did they ever get destroyed by the Atlanta's of the world back in the day?

I don't think I ever recall then losing by 4-5 goals to a bottom 3 team.

There are certain games like this and the last that show that this team is nowhere close to what we want.

As far as the good - Anaheim only had 20 shots and Chicago only had 22. I know both opponents were leading all game so weren’t looking for shots but that’s gotta be a positive.

 

[jbeck5]

As far as the good - Anaheim only had 20 shots and Chicago only had 22. I know both opponents were leading all game so weren’t looking for shots but that’s gotta be a positive.

It's one positive among many negatives.

We don't know how to come in and give a full effort and play with structure and let the skill win over.

Instead we aren't clutch at all and still allow weak goals and still have trouble scoring goals. Those are like the biggest factor, 10x more important than who had more shots.

I feel like we can get 10 great chances every game and never bury them. There's something wrong here.

And then I feel like the other team only gets 5 great chances but they bury half of them. Something wrong here too.

 

[Icelevel]

Horrible game. No one went for rebounds or to the danger areas. Let an AHL team get to the middle of the ice. These losers think they're good. It's so sad, scored 2 nice goals. Thought they were an all star team.. NEWS FLASH YOURE LAST.

A good argument for smejkal to get back in. He goes to the net maybe better than anyone else(?). Am I delusional?

 

[Tuna99]

A good argument for smejkal to get back in. He goes to the net maybe better than anyone else(?). Am I delusional?

Brady Tkachuk?

 

[Icelevel]

Brady Tkachuk?

Other than Brady I guess.

 

[Tuna99]

Other than Brady I guess.

Pinto?

 

[jbeck5]

Other than Brady I guess.

Greig?

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes I read your and when I read it, there was only data from two years ago.

Wrap your head around this: we need to stop comparing Chabot to other D on our team and start comparing him to D in his salary neighborhood

Idgaf what advanced stats say. Watch the clip where Chicago scored their winning goal while saying to yourself "8 million dollars"

It's kind of hard to answer to something when the problem is so simple... There was THIS in the post you quoted :

Correct me if I am wrong but 2023-24 is not 2 years ago? lol


Regarding the Hawks GWG, Johnson does some interference on Chabot, which could have been called, Chabot was losing balance but recovers quickly and blocks Dickinson from passing who then passes the puck. The problem is now that he is facing his net so he's not looking at the puck who went back instantly to Johnson who throws it right in Chabot's skates and then Dickinson was in a good position to shoot. It was a bit lucky to be honest but blaming only Chabot on this is pure scapegoating. Look at Tkachuk, Norris and Batherson being spectators too. Even Chychrun going for the hit instead of staying on his side creates the space in fron tof the net. The only one who did his job correctly was Korpisalo who even then was "fishing" a bit

That you care about advanced stats or not is irrelevant, it's a reality that is still happening in the physical world. Since January 11th, among 198 D-men with at least 100 mins at ES, Chabot is :

- 32nd in CF% (54.64%)
- 33rd in SF% (55.17%)
- 51st in xGF% (54.84%)

It's not as good as Sanderson and Zub who are pretty much Top-5 in everything but it's certainly better than it was in 2023. The team is not perfect and they still find ways to lose but they are 8-5-2 since that date (January 11th was a loss so I didn't pick the dates to make the record look better), I still prefer the way they have been playing since a few weeks after the coaching change

 

[Icelevel]

Greig?

There are guys who do it. The point was that smejkal has shown he isn’t afraid.

 

[Big Muddy]

Glad I can stop paying attention to this dissapointment of a team again.

I think it boils down to the trade deadline activities and the draft now. We've a super long shot for playoffs for some time now.

 

[jbeck5]

There are guys who do it. The point was that smejkal has shown he isn’t afraid.

I agree.

I think we have many guys who drive the net such as the ones named...

But we also have a bunch of perimeter players like batherson and Norris.


It's not as much that we need more players going to the net as we need less players being perimeter players.

Not sure if that makes sense.

I like applying numbers to things to paint a picture.

If a guy like Tkachuk is 100 on net front presence...and the average NHL player is a 50. And a perimeter player is a 0.

I don't think the issue is that we don't have enough 100 players...it's that we have too many zero players.

Hopefully my opinion makes sense? Lol

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The season was already over, so I don't know why these losses are met with such devastation. The little run there was fun, but lets be realistic here about what the rest of the season is. Too much catastrophizing over a team that is obviously going to need some significant change. Staios and Andlauer seem pretty resigned to that being the case, and I think most here accept it at this point.

Nobody should be surprised the supposed long game of PD and EM's shell of a plan didn't have a big payoff. It's going to take not just walking backwards into a bunch of draft talent, but also some skill in GMing that Dorion clearly didn't have, especially wrt goaltending since the only competent one he ever had was inherited. The goaltending has basically been a train wreck where one bad move led to another one being made to another and another and all of a sudden we have almost 7 mil of replacement level performance, are paying another not to play for us, and let one walk to UFA that outperformed all of them, at least for a while. Dorion was so lost with goaltending, I think positivity and hope should come from him not being involved in those decisions anymore. Same goes for coaching.

I agree with JM, they weren't that bad against Chicago. It wasn't their best, no denying that, but it was there and available, all after a pretty stinky performance from their tender. One goal the other way and the conversation is different.

They went 7-1-2 or whatever and hit a blip. We all knew and Edmonton run was unlikely. I'm more interested to see how they perform in the next few.

The Columbus game they sucked but escaped with a win, which really is something the good teams pull off since they also have off nights but can't piss them all away to losses. Only one that really kills imo is the Ducks game.

Nothing has changed. JM and Alfie hopefully can get them back to how they were playing a week or two ago. Staios and Company will worry about the changes required with the deadline coming up as their first chance to do so. Tarasenko and Chychrun's contract situations pretty much guarantee some significant change. More in the summer. And the players that do come back need to take ownership and come in focused and ready next year or even more change will happen.

The architects of this have only been gone for a matter of months.

 

[JD1]

It's kind of hard to answer to something when the problem is so simple... There was THIS in the post you quoted :

View attachment 822205

Correct me if I am wrong but 2023-24 is not 2 years ago? lol


Regarding the Hawks GWG, Johnson does some interference on Chabot, which could have been called, Chabot was losing balance but recovers quickly and blocks Dickinson from passing who then passes the puck. The problem is now that he is facing his net so he's not looking at the puck who went back instantly to Johnson who throws it right in Chabot's skates and then Dickinson was in a good position to shoot. It was a bit lucky to be honest but blaming only Chabot on this is pure scapegoating. Look at Tkachuk, Norris and Batherson being spectators too. Even Chychrun going for the hit instead of staying on his side creates the space in fron tof the net. The only one who did his job correctly was Korpisalo who even then was "fishing" a bit

That you care about advanced stats or not is irrelevant, it's a reality that is still happening in the physical world. Since January 11th, among 198 D-men with at least 100 mins at ES, Chabot is :

- 32nd in CF% (54.64%)
- 33rd in SF% (55.17%)
- 51st in xGF% (54.84%)

It's not as good as Sanderson and Zub who are pretty much Top-5 in everything but it's certainly better than it was in 2023. The team is not perfect and they still find ways to lose but they are 8-5-2 since that date (January 11th was a loss so I didn't pick the dates to make the record look better), I still prefer the way they have been playing since a few weeks after the coaching change

A normal person might, having been told twice that the data wasn't there when the post was originally read, wonder why that 2nd graphic didn't load. But nope, not you.

Here's something for you to consider: Since January 11th, among all the D men in the league, Chabot is t14 is AAV.

But if he was hanging around 35th or so salary wise where those stats are that your quoting, his salary would be in the low 6s. And if it was, people maybe wouldn't find his play so offensive. He's being paid like a mid tier top D but he's not playing like one.

 

[NB613]

It's kind of hard to answer to something when the problem is so simple... There was THIS in the post you quoted :

View attachment 822205

Correct me if I am wrong but 2023-24 is not 2 years ago? lol


Regarding the Hawks GWG, Johnson does some interference on Chabot, which could have been called, Chabot was losing balance but recovers quickly and blocks Dickinson from passing who then passes the puck. The problem is now that he is facing his net so he's not looking at the puck who went back instantly to Johnson who throws it right in Chabot's skates and then Dickinson was in a good position to shoot. It was a bit lucky to be honest but blaming only Chabot on this is pure scapegoating. Look at Tkachuk, Norris and Batherson being spectators too. Even Chychrun going for the hit instead of staying on his side creates the space in fron tof the net. The only one who did his job correctly was Korpisalo who even then was "fishing" a bit

That you care about advanced stats or not is irrelevant, it's a reality that is still happening in the physical world. Since January 11th, among 198 D-men with at least 100 mins at ES, Chabot is :

- 32nd in CF% (54.64%)
- 33rd in SF% (55.17%)
- 51st in xGF% (54.84%)

It's not as good as Sanderson and Zub who are pretty much Top-5 in everything but it's certainly better than it was in 2023. The team is not perfect and they still find ways to lose but they are 8-5-2 since that date (January 11th was a loss so I didn't pick the dates to make the record look better), I still prefer the way they have been playing since a few weeks after the coaching change

That goal is more caused by blown coverage by Thachuk than Chabot. Pretty sure actually it was Tkachuk who didn’t take his man on 2/3 goals.

 

[Xspyrit]

A normal person might, having been told twice that the data wasn't there when the post was originally read, wonder why that 2nd graphic didn't load. But nope, not you.

Here's something for you to consider: Since January 11th, among all the D men in the league, Chabot is t14 is AAV.

But if he was hanging around 35th or so salary wise where those stats are that your quoting, his salary would be in the low 6s. And if it was, people maybe wouldn't find his play so offensive. He's being paid like a mid tier top D but he's not playing like one.

lol ok, let's give you the benefit of the doubt that when you read my post, there was only data from two years ago and the 2nd graph wasn't there even if it always was there for me and probably everybody else. I guess I am not "normal". I won't fall again into your cheap antics so I'll leave it at that

Chabot is tied for the 14th highest cap hit among D-men? ok cool

He was INCREDIBLE value all his ELC (2017-18 to 2019-20), with the 20th most Points among D-men in these 3 seasons (if you look only at his 21 and 22 y/o seasons, 12th in Pts and 7th in TOI/GP), all of this on a rebuilding team with a lot of leaving talent.

And then from the start of his extension, 2nd in TOI/GP in the league, 37th in Pts but missed several games, 25th in PPG. The 3 guys just slightly ahead on PPG (Barrie, DeAngelo and Burns) will be out of the league very soon but there's also the fact that there's been a LOT of emerging Elite talent on defense in recent years. Guys like Seider, Sanderson, Power, Luke Hughes, Faber, Harley, Nemec, Clarke, etc will most likely make more money in the near future. There's also guys like Dobson, Bouchard, Theodore, Dahlin, Hronek and Toews who will most likely make more in not very long

With the cap now resuming on rising, if Chabot is overpaid, it's not by much, maybe he should be paid 7.5 AAV like Morgan Rielly if that could make you feel better. Dorion was PRAISED for giving up all these GOLDEN contracts but it looks like it was more FAILURE on his part. It is what it is and we're stuck with the legacy he left us with.

That being said, most of these guys 2-way games are improving. You'd have to be DUMB as bricks to think this team would become very good suddenly after the coaching change, it is a PROCESS, have to fix 5 years of bad coaching and 7 years and MISmanagement.

Finally, and I'm not leaving this particularly for you, but for people who want to understand more what Chabot brings, here's an article from last year (which isn't too far down in the past!) :

Is It Fair to Knock Thomas Chabot's Value to the Senators?

Whenever sports teams are dropping games, fans commonly look around a team’s roster — especially in the salary cap era — and identify areas where teams simply are not getting as much value out of a player as they should. The phenomenon has been seen at times this season whenever the conversation...

gnichols.substack.com

That goal is more caused by blown coverage by Thachuk than Chabot. Pretty sure actually it was Tkachuk who didn’t take his man on 2/3 goals.

There's a lot of biases in the human brain, if your brain has decided to "scapegoat" a player then the bias will kick in, to various degrees. To single out Chabot defensively when a lot of players have been just as bad or worse is scapegoating. Zub, Sanderson, Greig, Joseph, Giroux... not too sure I can think of many others who have been good defensively this season.

On that goal, everyone shares a part of the blame, you could even put more blame on Chychrun leaving out his position for a hit and creating all this space for the Hawks.