Confirmed Trade: [OTT/CBJ] Duchene and Bergman for Abramov, Davidson, 1st, and Conditional 1st

[ZDH]

I imagine you do the lottery? I've never done it, because it's poor expected value. I guess it's a different outlook in life.

What if these picks end up being nothing-level players? Then that's Duchene for a 1st. By the way, that's the most likely outcome.

These players being weak prospects doesn't change even if one of them pans out. Their value is measured right now, not a few years from now.

Way off topic but do you play poker?

Have not heard anyone use EV outside that game but ofc it applies to all kinds of things....

 

[Viqsi]

I want this Davidsson kid, and Abramov dressed tonight against Columbus, starting line, As on their jerseys

Davidsson's in Europe right now, so that'd be quite a trick. Abramov is possible, I suppose.

 

[rocketdan9]

So is Panarin going to be traded or no?

 

[BruinsBtn]

The closest comparables would be:
- Ondrej Palat
- Phil Danault
- Jason Pominville
- Adrian Kempe
- Tyler Bertuzzi
- JG Pageau
- Josh Anderson
- Radek Faksa
- Brendan Lemieux
- Jake Virtanen
- PA Parenteau
- Michael Ryder
- Dustin Byfuglien (not sure if he was D or F)
- Marek Svatos
- Darren Helm
- Sean Avery
- Jason Chimera
- Tomas Fleichmann
- Dale Weiss
- Max Talbot
- Colby Armstrong...

He would certainly be on the small end but he has outscored a lot of those guys

Gourde, Gallagher, Byron

 

[swiftwin]

The Bruins got a Cup. And if we're talking about entertainment then knocking the Leafs out in the most satisfying way twice is almost unbeatable.

The point is that the Sens paid less for Duschene than the Leafs did for Kessel and they traded him for a better return. So any Leaf fans here gloating are in the wrong place.

Yeahhhh... Claiming the 1st they traded for Andersen is the same as one of the two 1sts Boston used to draft Seguin and Hamilton is..... special.....

 

[CBJ VGK]

Columbus needs to pull out all stops to convince Duchene to re-sign in Columbus.

Maybe thousands of fans can greet the team plane at Port Columbus late tonight. Followed by a parade to the arena tomorrow. Then from there it's game on: penthouse apartment, hookers...blow....whatever it takes!

 

[Kurtz]

The Bruins got a Cup. And if we're talking about entertainment then knocking the Leafs out in the most satisfying way twice is almost unbeatable.

The point is that the Sens paid less for Duschene than the Leafs did for Kessel and they traded him for a better return. So any Leaf fans here gloating are in the wrong place.

Yikes, that's such a horrid argument.

Seguin was a passenger on that cup team. Had you kept Kessel, you'd have won that cup, and probably another one to boot like the Pens did. Maybe you wouldn't have to give up first for Nash because you were in such need of a top winger.

So that trade actually more likely cost you a cup rather than winning you one. And several picks to boot.

And I'll take Freddy + Kapanen over a 1st and a conditional 1st.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I imagine you do the lottery? I've never done it, because it's poor expected value. I guess it's a different outlook in life.

What if these picks end up being nothing-level players? Then that's Duchene for a 1st. By the way, that's the most likely outcome.

These players being weak prospects doesn't change even if one of them pans out. Their value is measured right now, not a few years from now.

What if the queen had balls - she'd be a king.

Just read an article that Abrahams was rated #11 overall prospect. Honestly, I don't know exactly how this will all play out, but then again, neither do you - that's for sure. But when your rebuilding, the strategy is to accumulate draft picks and prospects realizing that the more picks you get the better odds you have of something working out that's good.

Even though I'm a Toronto fan, I can realize and admit that somehow Ottawa does a good job drafting players. So, I'll wait and see how this pans out versus taking the word of an HF expert.

 

[Hunn]

There is a non-negligible probability that the 2nd 1st rounder could become a lottery one.

 

[ReLyT]

So is Panarin going to be traded or no?

For at least what they sent for Duchene.
Then they re-sign Duchene and stay ahead!

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Gourde, Gallagher, Byron

Gallagher and Byron were over .5ppg - .55 and .57, respectively - but they are good comparables too

As for Gourde, he was older than 21 so he didnt come up in my search but he is a good comparison at .26%. Mike Hoffman, too - he was 21 basically all season and he posted a .34ppg.

Thanks for the follow up

 

[passive voice]

So, I’m asking on behalf of Vitaly Abramov, the 20 year old who was drafted in 2016, who has 22 points in 52 AHL games...

When is the last time a player, at the age of 20 in their D+3 season, scored less than 0.5 points per game in the AHL, and then became a note worthy NHL player?

And if you’ve got an answer to that, my follow up question is: were they anywhere near 5’9, 172 lbs?

Here's forwards u22 since last lockout in his general range. Some of them will be younger than D+3. It's not a great rate but it's not a death sentence.

Elite Prospects - AHL Stats All-time season

 

[Thrasymachus]

So is Panarin going to be traded or no?

Would be counterintuitive after acquiring Duchene

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

There is a non-negligible probability that the 2nd 1st rounder could become a lottery one.

yup, IMO big win for Ottawa

 

[HoweHullOrr]

please tell us - since you seem to know - how Davidsson and Abramov rank in comparison to what WPG fans were offering.... assuming you've seen significant minutes of all prospects involved right?

None of the HF experts know any of this, but they all talk out their butts like they do. I'll trust the scouts over the HF experts here. Even though I cheer for the Buds, I can admit that the Senators seem to have a history of drafting very well.

 

[RomanianLeafs]

Good for both teams

 

[thekernel]

Big win for Ottawa. HUGE gamble for Columbus --but it makes them competitive now. I'm impressed with the balls on Jarmo.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

They poured through hundreds of hours of footage and couldn't find one example of him smiling while in a sens jersey

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It's also inaccurate, here I'll fix it for you:

1.5 years of Matt Duchene
2019 Columbus 1st (#21 currently)
Vitaly Abramov
Jonathan Davidsson
2020 Columbus 1st (Conditional)

And gave up:
2018 or 2019 Ottawa 1st (choice of Ottawa)
2019 Ottawa 3rd
0.5 years of Kyle Turris
Shane Bowers
Julius Bergman
Andrew Hammond

It didn't work out well since the Sens didn't do well in 2018 or 2019 and therefore didn't really benefit from having Matt Duchene, and it looks like Ottawa's pick will be top 5 this year, but none of that was predictable at the time Ottawa traded for Duchene and is thus irrelevant here.

If you want to rag on Ottawa there's plenty of material, but the Sens made a good move in trading for Duchene. It was letting Karlsson go and taking Tkachuk instead of giving that pick away where Dorion screwed the pooch.

Had he kept Karlsson, forfeited the Tkachuk pick, traded Stone/Duchene/Dzingel early in 2018-19 and tanked, they'd be picking top 5 this year (possibly #1 as you mentioned) and would have an additional first round pick from the Duchene trade (maybe an additional 1st the next year if he re-signs but doubtful), plus whatever they get for Stone and Dzingel and would be very well positioned for a quick rebuild/retool.

The trade for Duchene was a good one.

Kind of agree with that. If Ottawa just identified a couple of their players (e.g., Turris & Hoffman - just an example) they would sacrifice and trade for picks (or prospects) about a year ago, they would have better off. Melnyk would have reduced his payroll (always his objective and the root of all their problems) and the Senators would have some prospects along with a few remaining top players to build around.

 

[tsnTpoint]

Columbus needs to pull out all stops to convince Duchene to re-sign in Columbus.

Maybe thousands of fans can greet the team plane at Port Columbus late tonight. Followed by a parade to the arena tomorrow. Then from there it's game on: penthouse apartment, hookers...blow....whatever it takes!

I don't think Duchene cares at all where he plays.

To him its all about the money, similar to Ryan O'Reilly. He's going to free agency and then to the highest bidder.

 

[LeafChief]

 

[pt_mck]

I don't see how Davidsson is considered a good prospect. Still in the SEL, not overly impressive numbers, 6th round draft pick. 4th liner at best.

Abramov's skills don't appear to be transitioning to the pro game. There are several Sens prospects well above him on the depth chart.

 

[rocketdan9]

For at least what they sent for Duchene.
Then they re-sign Duchene and stay ahead!

Yes but you wasted Saad and all of these goodies for Duchene

 

[Sempiternal]

What if Columbus keeps Panarin and Bob thinking this is their best shot at a Stanley Cup?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I don't see how Davidsson is considered a good prospect. Still in the SEL, not overly impressive numbers, 6th round draft pick. 4th liner at best.

Abramov's skills don't appear to be transitioning to the pro game. There are several Sens prospects well above him on the depth chart.

He's 5th in ppg amongst u22 players in the SEL... not bad