I would consider Lemieux and Gretzky to be pretty much equal in 1989 1990 and 1991.
Orr vs. Lemieux for 20 Healthy Seasons?
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MadLuke
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In the back problem Lemieux world, in the magic fantasy one , we can easily Lemieux 90 and 91 season to be very similar to 89 and 93 I think ?
Playoff during that time frame:
Lemieux: 28 goals-63 pts, +13 in 34 games, 66 goals-148pts by 80 games pace, 1.85 ppg
Gretzky: 12 goals-47 pts, -8 in 30 games, 32 goals-125pts by 80 games pace 1.56 ppg
regular season was close 2.28 vs 2.07 ppg
Killer Orcas
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Bobby Orr healthy for 20 should be a slam dunk. I mean you can't go wrong here with Mario either but Orr was just insane offensively and defensively from what I've read. Mario as great as he was offensively never played defensively that I recall. Two talents that we were robbed of way to early regardless. Can't even fathom the numbers both would have put up.
Yeah I suspect Orr is the type of player who would age quite well. But - we didn't see it. It's always unpredictable to guess at ageing, so it's possible it could be worst than imagined.
We saw Lemieux older still super elite, so it's at least somewhat more reliable, vs pure guesswork.
The Panther
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Why... are people assuming Lemieux would win the 1991 Art Ross, and some others besides?
Per 80 GP:
Lemieux's 1990 scoring pace: 167 points
Gretzky's 1991 scoring pace: 167 points
Lemieux's 1992 scoring pace: 164 points
As it is, Lemieux would have been hard-pressed to win the 1990 scoring race if he'd been playing and Gretzky non-injured near the end of the year.
I honestly don't see Lemieux beating Jagr, if they'd played together, from 1998-99 onward (if they're on the same team), and maybe not in 1997-98 either.
I get that a healthy Mario probably (not for sure) wins the 1990 Art Ross and almost certainly the 1994 Art Ross, and then we can guess the 1995 one, too (though a lot of high-scoring players had huge drops that year). But you can go too far with this "healthy" thing. Being healthy is good for completed seasons and thus one-season scoring totals, but it also means the player acquires huge mileage, fatigue, and more wear & tear as the career goes on.
Per 80 GP:
Lemieux's 1990 scoring pace: 167 points
Gretzky's 1991 scoring pace: 167 points
Lemieux's 1992 scoring pace: 164 points
As it is, Lemieux would have been hard-pressed to win the 1990 scoring race if he'd been playing and Gretzky non-injured near the end of the year.
I honestly don't see Lemieux beating Jagr, if they'd played together, from 1998-99 onward (if they're on the same team), and maybe not in 1997-98 either.
I get that a healthy Mario probably (not for sure) wins the 1990 Art Ross and almost certainly the 1994 Art Ross, and then we can guess the 1995 one, too (though a lot of high-scoring players had huge drops that year). But you can go too far with this "healthy" thing. Being healthy is good for completed seasons and thus one-season scoring totals, but it also means the player acquires huge mileage, fatigue, and more wear & tear as the career goes on.
MadLuke
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I think it is thinking that there is an above 50% chance without back issue he score more like in 1989 or 1993 than he did in 90-91-92, looking at what he was able to do playoff time when he fought through them.
Jets4Life
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By 1990, it was becoming clear the Lemieux had eclipsed Gretzky. Before Lemieux was forced to end his season with back problem in February 1990, he went on a tear after starting the season slow. After Lemieux went down, the Penguins ended up 4-12-4 without Mario. In contrast, the Kings who finished with a losing record, with Gretzky.
1990-91...what can be said? Lemieux took the pens on his back, and was phenomenal. After missing most of the season, he was clutch in the playoffs, leading the Pens to their first Stanley Cup, while dominating the post season scoring.
I'm not so sure about that. I admit that I was too young to enjoy Orr at his prime, but the general consensus is that Gretzky would have been better than Orr, even if Orr had played until the last 80s. gretzky in the 80s dominated the sport like nobody in the history of any sport, let alone hockey. Then Lemieux eclipsed him by the 1988-89 season, and was mainly responsible for leading the Pens to back-to-back Stanley cups, in spite of his injury problems.
I mean even when Orr was healthy, and on a stacked bruins team, they only won 2 Stanley Cups.
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The Panther
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No, it was not.
1989-90 scoring race after October
26 PTS - Gretzky
20 PTS - Lemieux
1989-90 scoring race after November
52 PTS - Gretzky
47 PTS - Lemieux
1989-90 scoring race after December
80 - Gretzky
76 - Lemieux
1989-90 scoring race after January
103 - Lemieux
101 - Gretzky
They're basically even at this point. In late January, Gretzky went into a post-All Star game slump after his buddy (Nicholls) was traded, and Mario went on a bit of a heater, but of course the latter was injured and missed most of the remaining games.
Gretzky himself got injured on March 22nd before the end of the season, but just prior to that he'd been on a heater himself (from Feb. 14th to March 17th 1990, Wayne had 34 points in 15 games... then, he got back-crunched and missed the last 7.5 games).
Gretzky was also at his best all through 1990-91, scoring at the same pace as Lemieux in 1989-90, and higher than Lemieux's pace in 1990-91 and 1991-92.
Okay, I'll leave it there as I think I've made my point...
Jets4Life
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Lemieux returned to the Penguins after the 1991 all Star break. he started off slow, but still put up 46 points 45 points in 26 games, while still in pain from his back surgery in the summer of 1990. come playoff time, after the series with the Devils, he elevated his game, and almost single handedly destroyed the Caps, Bruins, and Stars. It's really difficult to believe that if Lemieux played over 75 games, he would lose out to Gretzky, especially considering he beat out him for the scoring title in 1988 and 89, and was well ahead of gretzky when he went down in 1990.
Did you even look at the game logs for the 1989-90 season? Lemieux started off slow, then turned on the jets in November 1989, scoring 103 points in 47 games. I don't understand why you are so certain gretzky would have won the scoring race vs a healthy Lemieux, considering Lemieux has a superior PPG that season.
enough with the Jagr BS. I'm not sure if you are a Jagr homer or you hate Lemeiux, but you're pushing this thing off a cliff.
I don;t think you understand the point of the thread. It's about what a healthy Lemieux and Orr could have done. It's hypothetical.
Jets4Life
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...and yet in spite of everything you claim in your post, Lemieux still had the superior numbers, when it came to PPG. In other words, Lemieux would ahve once again won the Art Ross trophy for the third year in a row, had he not been injured.
I don't think you have, and I frankly have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Mario lemieux was injured during the 89-90 and 90-91 seasons. This thread is about the hypothetical situation where he plays healthy.
TheStatican
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We know how Lemieux aged, he came out of retirement at an age when most players are well past their prime and dominated the league but we have no idea how Orr would have aged.
His bias is very clearly one-sided; notice that he is always quick to provide excuses for any decline in Gretzky's production but rarely considers any such possibilities for Lemieux;
Two year period
Was Gretzky as productive as Lemieux in any two year period from 87 to 93?
87-89 > No.
88-90 > No.
89-91 > No.
90-92 > No.
91-93 > No.
92-94 > No.
Three year period
Was Gretzky as productive as Lemieux in any three year period from 87 to 93?
87-90 > No.
88-91 > No.
89-92 > No.
90-93 > No.
For sure an impressive showing by Orr to do that after all he had been through... but he was 28. A 7 game sample size at 28 doesn't tell us anything about how he would age in his 30's.
It's because Panther still continues to operate on this incredulous belief that Lemieux wasn't actually playing hurt during that time period but rather, he was just going through "a slump".
His bias is very clearly one-sided; notice that he is always quick to provide excuses for any decline in Gretzky's production but rarely considers any such possibilities for Lemieux;
In anything longer than a single season Gretzky was never ahead of Lemieux after 1987;
Two year period
Was Gretzky as productive as Lemieux in any two year period from 87 to 93?
87-89 > No.
88-90 > No.
89-91 > No.
90-92 > No.
91-93 > No.
92-94 > No.
Three year period
Was Gretzky as productive as Lemieux in any three year period from 87 to 93?
87-90 > No.
88-91 > No.
89-92 > No.
90-93 > No.
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Jets4Life
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For the life of me, I do not comprehend why anyone would think Jagr beats out a healthy Lemieux in any year prior to 2003-04 when Lemieux was turning 38. For starters, Jagr never finished ahead of Lemieux in the 90s, when Lemieux was relatively health or played over 60 games. This occurred in 1991,92,93,96, and 97. With the exception of 2003-04, when Lemieux only played 10 games, and again in 2005-06, when Lemieux was 40, and forced to retire, why would anyone think Jagr would beat a healthy Lemieux in scoring?
Lemieux finished with superior PPG totals from 1990-2003. A 35 year old Mario Lemieux rejuvenated the 2000-01 Penguins, and led them to the Conference Final, and was easily the best player on the team. Lemieux would also ahve better PPG in 2001-02, and outright beat Jagr in points during the 2002-03 season, in spite of playing on a horrible Penguins team. Yet people here actually are delusional enough to think Jagr would have put up more points during some of Lemieux's three seasons he was in retirement in his early 30s?
Can someone explain the logic of this thought process.
Lemieux healthy in the late 90s isn't the same Lemieux who scored 160 points in 60 games in 93, or 199 points in 1989. It's an older Lemieux, with a lot more mileage on his body who is starting to slow down.
Jagr is....among the greatest peaks in hockey history.
So during the ~1998-2001 stretch - Jagr would be at his peak and Lemieux would be trending down (slowly, due to age). It's only natural to say there's a good chance Jagr could beat him out once, or a couple of times.
Even in 2001 - yes Lemieux was amazing, but Jagr did outpoint him in games they played together.
You bringing up 2002 or 2003 for Jagr doesn't really do much since these were bad, down years for him. Jagr from 1995 to 2001 was at his peak.
It's possible Lemieux beats him out in points every year - but it's also extremely probable Jagr beats him out a couple of times.
Snuggs
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Super Mario is the only guy in the 1700 point plus club with less than 1000 games. Basically everyone else has 400-800 more games played.
He's 1 of 5 players to get over 1000 points with less than 1000 games.
Sooooo many what if's. Just glad I got to watch him play and at times Mario Lemieux was certainly a titan among true men on the ice.
I'm not sure I'll ever be able to appreciate ol Bobby like fans that seen him play.
He's 1 of 5 players to get over 1000 points with less than 1000 games.
Sooooo many what if's. Just glad I got to watch him play and at times Mario Lemieux was certainly a titan among true men on the ice.
I'm not sure I'll ever be able to appreciate ol Bobby like fans that seen him play.
The Panther
Registered User
Slight correction: Lemieux came out of retirement and dominated... for 43 games.
You spent a lot of time here making some fancy graphs that aren't going to convince anyone of what we already know.
1987-88: Gretzky was clearly better
1988-89: Lemieux was clearly better (albeit via power play opportunities and PP points)
1989-90: They're even
1990-91: Gretzky was better
These are my opinions, and they're supported by tons of stats and facts I've posted elsewhere and won't do so again (to relieve everyone of the burden).
While we're at it, I also firmly believe that Jagr was about to surpass Lemieux in production either in 1997-98 or (certainly) 1998-99. As it is, in 1995-96 Jagr was already an ES point producer superior to Lemieux. In 1996-97, he matched Lemieux is ES points again and was a better goal scorer per game than Lemieux.
And again, good health doesn't mean your body doesn't get worn down. There's a toll paid on the body by being healthy and playing game after game, year after year, and not sitting out back-to-backs.
The premise of this thread is "healthy Lemieux".
In 1990 and 1991 - do you think Lemieux only played 59 and 26 games so he could take a vacation? I'm pretty sure I heard somewhere he may have had health issues those years that impacted his play....
If Lemieux was healthy and playing a full season - he wouldn't lose a single art Ross from 1989 up until ~peak Jagr in the late 90s at the earliest. As to how old Lemieux does vs peak Jagr from ~98 to 2001 - let alone after 2002 - that's more debatable certainly. It's possible Lemieux is still good enough to beat out Jagr some years - small possibility he does it every year - but flipside is also possible
And yes - having more mileage on his body would certainly take its toll on Lemieux by the late 90s/early 2000s, and it's possible he slows down further.
But - he would still definitely win the Art Ross in all of 1988, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, and 97. 10 in a row.
Jets4Life
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Lemieux PPG 1995-96: 2.30 Jagr PPG: 1.82
Lemieux PPG 1996-97: 1.61 Jagr PPG: 1.51
Lemieux PPG 2000-01: 1.77 Jagr PPG: 1.49
Lemieux PPG 2001-02: 1.29 Jagr PPG: 1,14
Lemieux PPG 2002-03 1.36 Jagr PPG: 1.03
For starters, goals per game had dropped from 3,74 in 1988-89 to 2.92 in 1996-97, when Lemieux initially retired. Then it would drop again to 2.76 in 2000-01. When we adjust Lemieux's totals, with the drop in scoring, his output in 2000-01 is not really that much different than it was in 1989-90, when he first missed considerable time with his back problems, even though he was 11 years older.
The bottom line is Lemieux decisively had a better output per game than Jagr. All you are doing at this point, is cherry-picking stats.
Jagr was 30 years old, and healthy as opposed to Lemieux, who has battling multiple injuries. Yet Lemieux still put up more PPG in both seasons, and outright had more points than Jagr in less games during 2002-03.
No, it's not. A healthy Lemieux would have easily beat out Jagr every year until the lockdown.
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MXD
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It's not THAT clear-cut
- I suspect Lemieux would age a little better than Orr, due to being less reliant on speed, all the while not being slow either
- Lemieux played his career in a somewhat stronger NHL than Orr (as a whole).
I think it's Orr. But it's not completely obvious.
MadLuke
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During the regular season, Penguins scorer
Jagr: 33 goals, 85 pts in 46 games, +15
Lemieux: 35 goals, 76 pts in 43 games, +15
Playoff:
Jagr: 12 pts in 16 games, +4
Lemieux: 17 pts in 18 games, +4
Jagr in that era.... motivated playing with Lemieux, easy to imagine him winning the Ross.
Capitals Jagr does not beat Lemieux, he did not get close to, have to cleanly outscore Mats Sundin and Whitney first.
But you get the idea, would they have played all their games together that year that 40 game sample could have been representative to what would have happened, it is not crazy to think so.
Jets4Life
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Jagr did have a great peak from 1994-2001, and it was magical. However, Jagr was noticeably behind Gretzky, and Lemieux. In fact, one can make the argument that Esposito (1968-75), Howe (1950-63), Lafleur (1974-80), Dionne (1974-85), Bossy (1978-86), Orr (1969-75), Mikita (1963-69), and now McDavid (2016-P) all had as good or even better peaks.
Jets4Life
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More cherry-picking by the pro Jagr contingent.
Are any of you over the age of 40, when one could actually appreciate just how dominant a healthy Lemieux was between his second season of 1985-86 to his first retirement in 1997? Implying Jagr was just as good, if not better from 1997 onwards, is factually incorrect.
What's next? People arguing that Ray Bourque was Bobby Orr's equal?
MadLuke
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It is all the games played in the Mario returned league, you also start to count at the same time when you look at Mario.
You can think that Mario presence do not affect Jagr scoring significatively, but that sound a bit crazy, it could go either way who win the Ross, specially with more mileage on Mario body, we are talking peak Jagr versus old Mario here by 2001.
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Moose Head
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Does Gretzky also get a perfectly healthy back in the 90’s in this scenario?
1000+ goals 3000+ pts?
1000+ goals 3000+ pts?
MVP of West Hollywd
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I think Orr at his peak is the most valuable player ever personally
