Speculation: Opening night forward lines

[InformTheMasses]

matt carkner 58 1.09 5.48

dan boyle 46 0.61 1.73

josh bailey 44 0.57 2.17

dan boyle?!?!?

 

[Tampacuseforever]

Are you talking about Boulton or Martin? If it is the former that is a question being pondered by many teams. If it is Martin , well, he Isn't an enforcer though that doesn't stop the uninformed from insisting he is.

I'm talking Boulton, Matt Martin can play hockey and does serve a role as a energy guy for this team.

 

[Tampacuseforever]

You guys don't seem too happy with Conacher taking that spot on the Tavares line. Aren't Moulson and PAP good comparables to him?

I would think this is typical of HF Boards. Small outsider gets spot over bigger high draft picks. It will work itself out I don't think he will be there long term, but I think he will be a very effective player for the Isles given the fact that we use an offensive system that is very suited to a guy with Conachers skill.

 

[BillD]

I'm sure that's tracked somewhere, and that's a really interesting point. I'd be curious to know who on our roster draws the most penalties.



Depends when he comes back. If Conacher isn't doing well, he could be sitting. If we're rolling and winning games, do you really mess with that and insert Grabner? Just depends who is hot and who is not to me.

We will be an exceptionally fast team in a fast skating league.
Add Grabner to the mix and defensemen trying to play us will be quaking in their boots, hanging back high. He is the fastest of the fast and just that element can not be ignored by the defense which has to account for it They will not be saying "don't worry Grabs doesn't convert. We will be attacking in waves and when Grabs line is on it will be shock and awe.
For what its worth, I think he improves his finishing this year and makes an impact on secondary scoring.

 

[ndgolden]

We will be an exceptionally fast team in a fast skating league.
Add Grabner to the mix and defensemen trying to play us will be quaking in their boots, hanging back high. He is the fastest of the fast and just that element can not be ignored by the defense which has to account for it They will not be saying "don't worry Grabs doesn't convert. We will be attacking in waves and when Grabs line is on it will be shock and awe.
For what its worth, I think he improves his finishing this year and makes an impact on secondary scoring.

A team built on speed can do a lot of damage during regular season. Play-offs are a completely different game. Here is a look at the physical attributes of the Islanders based on the predicted line-ups.

Below are the players hits per game. Kulemin adds much needed physicality to line 3. The fourth line is the Tylenol line.

Cory Conacher -.64 - John Tavares -.39- Kyle Okposo-.61
Mikhail Grabovski - .58- Brock Nelson - 1.03- Ryan Strome- .78
Josh Bailey - .57- Frans Nielsen - .49- Nikolay Kulemin -2.18
Matt Martin - 4.54- Casey Cizikas - 1.60 - Cal Clutterbuck - 3.10

By line total hits per game
Line 1 = 1.64
Line 2 = 2.39
Line 3 = 3.24
Line 4 = 9.24!

Fantastic site for NHL player stats:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/players/329417/mikhail-grabovski/#Points%20Per%20Game$Trades=1&GameType=279588574&SeasonMax=9999&SeasonMin=1990

 

[rileymac79]

I couldn't have said it better. People can keep saying you need enforcers but you don't. There is a reason they are disappearing and the good teams don't employ guys that do nothing but fight. How many real enforcers are left ? They are pointless !

Have you guys ever played hockey?? Those type of players are needed in the game, they keep players honest...without, guys would be able to run around taking liberties with no repercussion

 

[rileymac79]

Agree to disagree then. I believe that hockey is a very emotional game and players like Martin provide a spark with big hits and timely fights when the team is in a lull.

yupp 100%!! If you have ever played the game, you would realize how much a big hit, or fight can change the momentum of the game in your favour.

 

[ndgolden]

Line-up infor

More breakdowns by line for avg/sog & Shooting %

Cory Conacher -1.3 / 7.0% - John Tavares -3.2/12.8%- Kyle Okposo-2.7/13.9%
Mikhail Grabovski - 1.7/11.3%- Brock Nelson - 1.8/10.6%- Ryan Strome-2.4/7.9%
Josh Bailey -1.3/8.2%- Frans Nielsen -1.8/10.4%- Nikolay Kulemin -1.2/11.1%
Matt Martin -1.5/6.7%- Casey Cizikas -1.0/7.6% - Cal Clutterbuck -2.4/7.0%

By line total shots per game
Line 1 = 7.2
Line 2 = 5.9
Line 3 = 4.3
Line 4 = 4.9

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/players/329417/mikhail-grabovski/#Points%20Per%20Game$Trades=1&GameType=279588574&SeasonMax=9999&SeasonMin=1990

 

[rileymac79]

Is it Friday yet!? Lets get this show on the road!!!!

 

[Melanson]

Have you guys ever played hockey?? Those type of players are needed in the game, they keep players honest...without, guys would be able to run around taking liberties with no repercussion

I don't think you need "enforcers" the way you did back in the '80's but against certain teams, you need to be able to suit up guys that can fight and protect your stars. Teams like Boston and Philly have size and will try to beat you up and you need to be able to respond. Outside of that argument, I also want a team that is considered tough to play against. I think that is a weakness of ours if our regular lineup is out there with the exception of a few guys (Boychuck, Kulemin, Martin, Clutterbuck, Czikas....maybe Hamonic but he is not as physical as he used to be). That is why I would prefer guys like Lee over guys like Bailey and Grabner. It's nice to have speed but we also need a little size and grit. I disagree with the poster who said Lee doesn't hit. Watch him play...he hits, is very good on the boards and goes to the front of the net....another thing we, and especially our powerplay, are lacking as a team.

I like the team that Garth has assembled overall. I think we have the pieces to put together a well balanced team that can grind and score. I don't think those pieces are being put together properly yet but they are there. Maybe we are going to give Bailey 10 games to see if he turns is around. Maybe we are giving Conacher a shot at the top line to see if we find lightning in a bottle. Who knows? I would prefer not "experimenting" during the regular season and fielding the best lineup. In my mind that is:

Lee/Tavares/Okposo
Nelson/Grabovski/Kulemin
Strome/Nielson/Grabner-Bailey
Martin/Czikas/Clutterbuck

You can flip Strome wth Lee but I'd prefer to put Lee on the top line. He is a puck possession player who can work the boards and get to the front of the net. He is what I always wanted Moulson to be but couldn't. I think Strome with Okie and JT works on the PP but not regular shifts.

Just my humble opinion.

 

[Le Grec]

I want to see more of it personally. That's what a leader is all about. He shouldn't be throwing the gloves down against a guy like Lucic every game, but he shouldn't be standing idly by either.



It's just not true that with a Martin, Carkner, or Boulton that other teams won't run guys. In the muscle thread a few weeks ago this discussion was brought up. I posted a few videos of Tavares getting run while our big enforcer types were on the ice. They don't deter (at least not a noticeable amount), they simply respond to it.

I don't know any player who is unwilling to make a hit they'd normally make because an enforcer is on the ice. They're making the hit 99% of the time.



I wasn't saying JT shouldn't get involved, i'm just saying it's not his role.


Guys like Martin, Carkner, & Boulton can change the flow of the game.

A good example is the game against the Leafs either last year or the year before.

Isles were losing, Carkner fought Fraser, then Boulton fought Orr, and we won the game.
It's not something that shows up on the stat sheets, but it's an important aspect.

The real problem is Cappy doesn't know when to use these players...

 

[Tampacuseforever]

I want to see more of it personally. That's what a leader is all about. He shouldn't be throwing the gloves down against a guy like Lucic every game, but he shouldn't be standing idly by either.



It's just not true that with a Martin, Carkner, or Boulton that other teams won't run guys. In the muscle thread a few weeks ago this discussion was brought up. I posted a few videos of Tavares getting run while our big enforcer types were on the ice. They don't deter (at least not a noticeable amount), they simply respond to it.

I don't know any player who is unwilling to make a hit they'd normally make because an enforcer is on the ice. They're making the hit 99% of the time.



I wasn't saying JT shouldn't get involved, i'm just saying it's not his role.


Guys like Martin, Carkner, & Boulton can change the flow of the game.

A good example is the game against the Leafs either last year or the year before.

Isles were losing, Carkner fought Fraser, then Boulton fought Orr, and we won the game.
It's not something that shows up on the stat sheets, but it's an important aspect.

The real problem is Cappy doesn't know when to use these players...

For the Leafs, Fraser gone, Orr gone, McLaren gone !!!! The enforcer that can't play is becoming extinct, there will always be a need for tough guys that can take a regular shift and be effective, but the pure enforcer....... glad there gone I hate useless staged fights.

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

Staple took a nice but very implied shot at Bailey.

 

[Le Grec]

For the Leafs, Fraser gone, Orr gone, McLaren gone !!!! The enforcer that can't play is becoming extinct, there will always be a need for tough guys that can take a regular shift and be effective, but the pure enforcer....... glad there gone I hate useless staged fights.

I agree with you that staged fights are mostly useless, I was mostly referring to the impact physical play can have in a game, whether it's a big hit or a good fight.

 

[Macch]

Staple took a nice but very implied shot at Bailey.

Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 22m22 minutes ago
But it is fair to say Lee did more than at least one player in the current top-12 forward group this camp.

Only in your eyes he took a shot at Bailey. I think he was talking about Strome. Bailey is a vet that still can play a role on this team. Strome didn't look great in any of the games during preseason. If anything, Strome was gifted a spot not Bailey. If you listen to Staple on the IPB podcast he mentions Bailey as a guy who can still get some LW minutes with JT and KO.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

I'm talking Boulton, Matt Martin can play hockey and does serve a role as a energy guy for this team.

Thanks. In Boulton's defense he has more skill than many of the enforcers in the league and he is a good one unlike some who are punching bags. Last year though they tried to give him ever so slightly more meaningful minutes and he got exposed bad.

But he can also ride the pine in the press box and still provide what he provides...

IDK, something about the numbers we are seeing makes me wonder if one more shoe is about to drop. I do not get why we would send Lee down. If this was NHL 98 ok, you play manager and don't care about the human element, but Lee did enough to stay up and force a scrub through waivers.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Have you guys ever played hockey?? Those type of players are needed in the game, they keep players honest...without, guys would be able to run around taking liberties with no repercussion

Yet, even with an enforcer it still happens.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Isles were losing, Carkner fought Fraser, then Boulton fought Orr, and we won the game.
It's not something that shows up on the stat sheets, but it's an important aspect.

Yes it does. Five minute major for fighting.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Only in your eyes he took a shot at Bailey. I think he was talking about Strome. Bailey is a vet that still can play a role on this team. Strome didn't look great in any of the games during preseason. If anything, Strome was gifted a spot not Bailey. If you listen to Staple on the IPB podcast he mentions Bailey as a guy who can still get some LW minutes with JT and KO.

Strome had something like half the shots on goal against NJ in NJ. He also posted one, and was completely robbed by Schneider in another.

So he looked pretty good in that game.

 

[Le Grec]

Yes it does. Five minute major for fighting.

Jay, really, I love your posts, but this is why I chose not to continue on this subject with you.

You see it as a five minute penalty, I see it as motivation.

To each his own...

 

[Macch]

Strome had something like half the shots on goal against NJ in NJ. He also posted one, and was completely robbed by Schneider in another.

So he looked pretty good in that game.

I stand corrected. I'll give him that and by no means am I down on Strome, but a lot of reports stated Lee and Nelson had great camps. Don't think Bailey's place is in jeopardy yet, but i can see him playing himself off the team.

But I digress. i still say that the last spot came down to Lee or Strome. For what ever reason, the staff gave it to Strome. I would still take Lee over Martin though.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Jay, really, I love your posts, but this is why I chose not to continue on this subject with you.

You see it as a five minute penalty, I see it as motivation.

To each his own...

Well, I'm just saying it shows up on the stat sheets. I'm not making any comment about the impact.

 

[Le Grec]

Well, I'm just saying it shows up on the stat sheets. I'm not making any comment about the impact.

Fair enough...

But if i may ask you, do you see players on the 4th line as players who are less talented, or players who play a "certain" role?

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Fair enough...

But if i may ask you, do you see players on the 4th line as players who are less talented, or players who play a "certain" role?

Let me be clear. I think your best players should be utilized in the best way possible. Your coaching strategies should be designed with your personnel in mind.

If you have the talent to roll four competent scoring lines, that is what you should do.

If instead you have three extremely talented defensive forwards, you could use them in a shutdown role.

The possibilities are endless, and I firmly believe that there is no reason to pigeonhole yourself into "the fourth line should always do X".

Now, as far as "playing a role"; I'd need to know what that role was and why we need it to answer any questions about it.

I realize I can be frustrated to talk to sometimes because I do not conform to what is expected of people sometimes. I can't answer a question that forces me to choose a side that I sometimes may not agree with.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Let's take a look at the NHL Hit stats for 2013-2014 I would clearly disagree with your take on a players willingness to engage.

(Hits) (Hits P/G) (Hits per 60/min)
Matt Martin 359 4.54 22.91

Cal Clutterbuck 270 3.70 15.49

Colin McDonald 217 3.10 15.02

Mike Halmo 52 2.60 16.51

Calvin de Haan 114 2.24 6.38

Anders Lee 48 2.18 8.35

Brock Nelson 74 1.03 4.33

Ryan Strome 29 0.78 3.10

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-hits-statistics/2013/

Two points regarding "hits"...

a) The numbers are generalizations. People think +/- is obtuse. Hit totals are even worse because they are about as subjective a micro stat as they come, right up there with FO%, which from rink to rink is highly suspect. Whether that helps or hurts my position IDK, but I like to throw it out there when hits come up. I have seen many over recorded and under recorded events. My pov would make it more of an upper third, middle of pack, lower third thing and really go no further.

b) Trent "hit total" Hunter. He is about as perfect a high hit collector vs. daisy factor player as I have ever seen play this sport. He was 6'+, 210#+, and he recorded one ultra-lame fight per year. His hits vs. say Martin's checks are like comparing punches thrown between two combatants in an American Boxing match vs. say the Olympics. In the olympics it is all about technique in scoring the right kind of daisy contact. In your average American boxing match truly, the toughest guy wins. In the Olympics landing a proper technical punch with all the force of a fart gets you a point. That was a Trent Hunter hit. A Martin hit or a Clutterbuck hit leaves the glass shaking like a freight train went by. I can absorb Trent's hits all day long. If Martin or several others are out there, I avoid their area of the ice, play paranoid, etc. in particular since they also will follow it up with a fight. The tough angle ends there for our entire top 6.

Compared to our previous teams our upper 6 is getting tougher. I would agree with that, but that yardstick... yeesh. Our clubs had a tampon hanging out of them in the top 9 for a long time. It isn't very hard to be tougher than that.

Question: When talk about guys like Mellanby, Nolan, etc., did you see them in their hayday? Sometimes I forget not everyone has. Even if there is a correlation between suspect hit totals, anyone who watched them can tell you that they, vs. say Lee.... oh night and day difference.