Post-Game Talk: Opening Day - Devils 5, Oilers 2 (@ Sweden)

[My3Sons]

Just to be clear - Boyle scored 8 ES goals in 67 games.

In 2016-17, the 4th line centers were Josefson, Coleman, and Fiddler - these players combined for 3 goals. Even if you want to count Blandisi and Kalinin you still only get up to 6.

In 2015-16, Gionta scored 1 goal.

In 2014-15, Josefson was used as the 4th line center - he scored 3 ES goals.

In 2013-14, Stephen Gionta was mostly the 4th line guy - 3 ES goals

We can keep going like this back through the years, but the truth is that the Devils haven't gotten 8 ES goals out of their 4th line center(s) in well over a decade - maybe 2003, definitely 2002 if not 2003. Boyle looks awkward sometimes. But he scores goals. When that stops, so does his NHL career.

That’s excellent perspective on Boyle. One question though. Wasn’t Boyle the 3C for a part of last season until Zajac returned and maybe he spent a game or two at 2C if PZ was sitting? Would that have impacted his numbers?

Aside from the stylistic fit I am a bit disappointed that Boyle hasn’t won faceoffs at the rate he was expected to. Still 8 ES goals from a 4C was probably near the top of the league.

 

[JimEIV]

That’s excellent perspective on Boyle. One question though. Wasn’t Boyle the 3C for a part of last season until Zajac returned and maybe he spent a game or two at 2C if PZ was sitting? Would that have impacted his numbers?

Aside from the stylistic fit I am a bit disappointed that Boyle hasn’t won faceoffs at the rate he was expected to. Still 8 ES goals from a 4C was probably near the top of the league.

I would add Coleman had 10 even strength goals +3 shorties and played center for a good amount of time.

Coleman was 5 for 7 in the dot yesterday. I personally think he's a much better option than Boyle at Center personally.

I don't think Boyle's goals can be looked at in vacuum. We had better production from our bottom 6 than we have in years and that wasn't "just" Boyle.

 

[RangerDoggo]

MoJo really stuck out to me with his excellent handwork. He should be the scoring touch that second line needs.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Boyle scored a good amount in the first half and went totally invisible in the second half. 2 goals in his last 39 games. He’s obviously not a major issue but he isn’t very good. Coleman is an infinitely better option at 4C when Bratt returns.

 

[Zippy316]

Boyle scored a good amount in the first half and went totally invisible in the second half. 2 goals in his last 39 games. He’s obviously not a major issue but he isn’t very good. Coleman is an infinitely better option at 4C when Bratt returns.

Boyle played wing last night. Fourth line would ideally be Boyle - Coleman - Noesen when everyone is healthy.

In all honesty, that's our best scenario and then just allowing the kids like Seney, Studenic, McLeod, etc. to get playing time. No sense in having them play 8 minutes a night in the NHL.

 

[Zippy316]

I don't know if this has been said, but Zajac through pre-season and last night has looked like the Zajac of the ZZPops days.

If we can get that Zajac back, have Hall - Hischier on the top line, and Johansson and Bratt skating the puck up the ice on their line, our forward group is going to give teams fits.

 

[Missionhockey]

I don’t mind Boyle at even strength but I don’t think he is a good fit on the PK.

He’s long, so he fills a lot of space but he’s slow both in footspeed and agility. He’ll fill passing lanes but he can get himself turned around if the play flows around him too fast and he can’t get to lose pucks fast enough for a clear.

I agree with this. To me he's out there to win the faceoffs but he's not quick enough to get in the lanes. I don't understand why people complain about him though. True, he's not as fast as the rest of the roster, but for a fourth line center I think he does an okay job.

 

[RangerDoggo]

I don't know if this has been said, but Zajac through pre-season and last night has looked like the Zajac of the ZZPops days.

If we can get that Zajac back, have Hall - Hischier on the top line, and Johansson and Bratt skating the puck up the ice on their line, our forward group is going to give teams fits.

He’s like Greene: too old and not good enough to play on the top lines, but still worth having further down the lineup.

 

[Zippy316]

He’s like Greene: too old and not good enough to play on the top lines, but still worth having further down the lineup.

Maybe.

But since February and even moreso this training camp, he's been skating and making plays like he did when him and Parise were a dynamic duo.

His first goal was a quick, precise shot that I haven't seen from Zajac in forever. His second goal surprised me because I didn't even think he hadn't shown hands like that in years. He also pulled set a couple guys up with great passes to the slot and pulled up for a one-timer at one point that actually looked dangerous.

It used to take months to get a highlight package like that from Zajac. We got all of it in one game yesterday.

 

[BenedictGomez]

If we're just talking ES, Boyle had one of the worst +/- on the Devils last season. Not Stafford-bad, but not good. Sometimes +/- doesn't tell a full story, but with Boyle I believe it does. He's chasing play.

And keep in mind the Devils 4th-line last year was decent (plus I think Boyle played a fair number of games at 3rd-line too).

Lastly, keep in mind one of the entire "points", so to speak, of having Boyle's is for his FO skills. And while he's supposedly a FO specialist, his FO% was 50.48 last year. That's not exactly considered elite. All-in-all, I'd rather give those 8 or 9 minutes to a younger player with some upside, and I'm usually one of the last people wanting to push youngsters into the lineup.

 

[Triumph]

Boyle scored a good amount in the first half and went totally invisible in the second half. 2 goals in his last 39 games. He’s obviously not a major issue but he isn’t very good. Coleman is an infinitely better option at 4C when Bratt returns.

This rate would crush the Devils' 4th line contributions in many years. I think we can also acknowledge that Boyle might not have been at 100% for the entire season.

If we're just talking ES, Boyle had one of the worst +/- on the Devils last season. Not Stafford-bad, but not good. Sometimes +/- doesn't tell a full story, but with Boyle I believe it does. He's chasing play.

And keep in mind the Devils 4th-line last year was decent (plus I think Boyle played a fair number of games at 3rd-line too).

Lastly, keep in mind one of the entire "points", so to speak, of having Boyle's is for his FO skills. And while he's supposedly a FO specialist, his FO% was 50.48 last year. That's not exactly considered elite. All-in-all, I'd rather give those 8 or 9 minutes to a younger player with some upside, and I'm usually one of the last people wanting to push youngsters into the lineup.

Faceoffs and +/- should be retired as stats. Boyle's career faceoff rate is just above 50%. He's not a 'faceoff specialist'. He's had some good seasons and has since his Ranger days mostly been a Speed center - staying above 50 - but they also changed the rules last season and Boyle did not have training camp to work on it. That said, the difference between even 50% and 55% is miniscule in its actual effect on the game.

As for +/-, yes, he was a -10 - the idea that this reflects him being behind the play isn't supported by very much. No one else scored goals when he was on the ice. That probably has a little bit to do with him, but not a ton. He plays on a 4th line with 4th liners. They typically don't have good hands, and he was the only one who finished with him on the ice.

 

[Blackjack]

Maybe.

But since February and even moreso this training camp, he's been skating and making plays like he did when him and Parise were a dynamic duo.

His first goal was a quick, precise shot that I haven't seen from Zajac in forever. His second goal surprised me because I didn't even think he hadn't shown hands like that in years. He also pulled set a couple guys up with great passes to the slot and pulled up for a one-timer at one point that actually looked dangerous.

It used to take months to get a highlight package like that from Zajac. We got all of it in one game yesterday.

It's funny, we've all been trying to figure out which of the young players would have a breakout season. Hischier? Bratt? Wood? Zacha? Quenneville? Seney? Anderson? Speers? No one really expected anything from Zajac, but it makes complete sense. He's a consistent 45 point guy and his scoring was way down last year probably because of his injury. Now he's healthy again, and 33 isn't that old. Also, the players around him are much better than they've been in the last few years.

 

[My3Sons]

the fourth line can always rotate a bit depending upon the matchup. Dea when a speedier option is needed and Boyle against a bigger team.

Hopefully one of the Binghamton players forces his way up to the NHL this season. That will be a good problem to deal with.

 

[JimEIV]

Faceoffs and +/- should be retired as stats. Boyle's career faceoff rate is just above 50%. He's not a 'faceoff specialist'. He's had some good seasons and has since his Ranger days mostly been a Speed center - staying above 50 - but they also changed the rules last season and Boyle did not have training camp to work on it. That said, the difference between even 50% and 55% is miniscule in its actual effect on the game.

Why don't you like FO%? I get how a lot of a faceoff is probably more often a line effort than an individual effort..but defensive zone faceoffs are very important.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Faceoffs and +/- should be retired as stats. Boyle's career faceoff rate is just above 50%. He's not a 'faceoff specialist'.

Faceoffs are extremely important. Late in the game especially. Kris Draper is probably a good example, he likely would have been out of the NHL 3 or 4 seasons early if he wasn't something like 60% on the dot. He hung around as a 4th line center and the RedWings used him late in the game for all their big draws (much like how Skeletor uses Boyle or Zajac) even though he only scored 5 or 6 goals per year. David Steckel is another example. I doubt he gets more than a cup of tea in the NHL if he wasnt 60% on the draw, instead he played 8 years (poorly).

 

[JimEIV]

Faceoffs are extremely important. Late in the game especially. Kris Draper is probably a good example, he likely would have been out of the NHL 3 or 4 seasons early if he wasn't something like 60% on the dot. He hung around as a 4th line center and the RedWings used him late in the game for all their big draws (much like how Skeletor uses Boyle or Zajac) even though he only scored 5 or 6 goals per year. David Steckel is another example. I doubt he gets more than a cup of tea in the NHL if he wasnt 60% on the draw, instead he played 8 years (poorly).

You don't care for Corsi and he doesn't care for Faceoffs...Yet the faceoff is the genesis of a lot of possession....

I find some irony here.

 

[Triumph]

Why don't you like FO%? I get how a lot of a faceoff is probably more often a line effort than an individual effort..but defensive zone faceoffs are very important.

People focus on faceoffs when they are one of the least important things that happens in a hockey game. Patrik Elias was terrible at faceoffs and was an excellent NHL center. There's guys who made a career out of being 55% on faceoffs despite being awful at most other things. Yes, sometimes faceoff wins lead to goals and faceoff losses lead to goals against, but the range of faceoff ability is 40% to 60%, and more realistically it's 45% to 55%. There's just not a lot of difference there - it's one more won faceoff out of 9 - and goals go in at a rate off faceoffs that's much lower than an average shot on goal.

 

[Triumph]

Faceoffs are extremely important. Late in the game especially. Kris Draper is probably a good example, he likely would have been out of the NHL 3 or 4 seasons early if he wasn't something like 60% on the dot. He hung around as a 4th line center and the RedWings used him late in the game for all their big draws (much like how Skeletor uses Boyle or Zajac) even though he only scored 5 or 6 goals per year. David Steckel is another example. I doubt he gets more than a cup of tea in the NHL if he wasnt 60% on the draw, instead he played 8 years (poorly).

The reason you can't name any current players like this is because this trend has changed. These guys don't really exist anymore. Having a faceoff specialist isn't worth it. 60% - you win 1 more faceoff in 10 than a 50% guy. It's not a large difference, and it doesn't make up for how weak a player is once the faceoff is over.

 

[MadDevil]

You don't care for Corsi and he doesn't care for Faceoffs...Yet the faceoff is the genesis of a lot of possession....

I find some irony here.

Last year Nico was sub 50% on faceoffs while being over 50% in possession. Boyle was over 50% on faceoffs while being under 50% in possession.

Looking beyond our own team Barkov was bad at faceoffs for his first 4 years but was a good possession player. Getzlaf has been over 50% on faceoffs just 3 times in his career, but is a positive possession player almost every year.

I don't think the link between faceoffs and possession is as much as you think it is.

 

[Triumph]

Last year Nico was sub 50% on faceoffs while being over 50% in possession. Boyle was over 50% on faceoffs while being under 50% in possession.

Looking beyond our own team Barkov was bad at faceoffs for his first 4 years but was a good possession player. Getzlaf has been over 50% on faceoffs just 3 times in his career, but is a positive possession player almost every year.

I don't think the link between faceoffs and possession is as much as you think it is.

You don't even really need to cite numbers - just watch what happens after a faceoff. People talk about it's like a tip-off in basketball where once a team controls possession at that juncture, the other team will fall back into a defensive posture, but that's absolutely not what happens. If a neutral zone faceoff is won by the team farther away from their net, they will usually just dump the puck in over the blue line and hope to recover it. That's what defensemen will do most times. How successful is this? How often does this lead to possession and scoring chances?

Likewise, a defensive zone faceoff win rarely means that the other team will just clear the zone and wait for that team to come up the ice - they will contest the puck and try to cause a turnover. On the other hand, sometimes an offensive zone faceoff win will lead to a defenseman shooting a puck into a player that can lead to odd-man rushes and breakaways for the defensive team, whereas that is relatively rare off a defensive zone faceoff win.

Next time any of you watch a game, watch what happens after a faceoff - really watch it. Yes, you'd rather win faceoffs than lose them, but it's hard to control that, and it matters a lot more what happens after the faceoff is won or lost. It's very easy to remember goals scored off O-zone wins/D-zone losses, but it's a lot harder to notice how the game works when that rare event doesn't occur.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The reason you can't name any current players like this is because this trend has changed. These guys don't really exist anymore.

It's quite possible you're right about that, it's not something I've thought about a great deal.

I do disagree that having someone on the team to win those < 2 minutes left faceoffs by taking a draw at a 58% clip versus a guy at a 47% clip isnt a significant advantage. If it wasn't, coaches wouldn't put their best guy out in the dot regardless of skill. Especially after icings, etc...

 

[Triumph]

It's quite possible you're right about that, it's not something I've thought about a great deal.

I do disagree that having someone on the team to win those < 2 minutes left faceoffs by taking a draw at a 58% clip versus a guy at a 47% clip isnt a significant advantage. If it wasn't, coaches wouldn't put their best guy out in the dot regardless of skill. Especially after icings, etc...

The long run is way too long to notice if this kind of coaching decision affects anything at all. You are talking about very slightly weighted coinflips over hundreds of iterations - late-game goals against are rare events. I'd bet that putting out the best faceoff guy within 1 minute of endgame, regardless of ability, is very slightly suboptimal, but that's not even probably measurable over an entire NHL season's worth of games, much less one team's. (One issue is that often a team's best faceoff man is probably also their best option as a forward, as e.g. I think Travis Zajac has been for the last 10 years)

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Boyle played wing last night. Fourth line would ideally be Boyle - Coleman - Noesen when everyone is healthy.

In all honesty, that's our best scenario and then just allowing the kids like Seney, Studenic, McLeod, etc. to get playing time. No sense in having them play 8 minutes a night in the NHL.

Id rather scratch Boyle and play Dea.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Faceoffs are important but also misleading because you can win a faceoff and lose possession a half second later and vice versa.

 

[kiwidevil]

Gotta love how simplified Mueller was playing. You could tell he was always just trying to make the easy play and defer to Vatanen basically every play. You gotta wonder how many young guys don't last long in the league, trying to be Karlsson every 2nd play. He seems to have figured out his limitations and where his partner can become his asset. Greene had many amazing 1 on 1 D plays. Mojo looks like he's 30% faster and stronger than last year.

Also, while he produced. It is hilarious to see Lucic skate. His first 3 strides, look like he is skating uphill. In general, the Oilers looked very slow overall. It felt like we were playing a full squad vs a split squad, in a 3rd preseason game.

Our boy Larsson looks more and more tentative every time i see him play. He gives so much gap on entries, and is very "chip of the boards" style of Dman now.