Only game being played is the blame game(CBA Negotiation discussion thread) - Part IV

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Fugu

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Nov 26, 2004
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So even when you know that large part of the revenue growth is because of exchange rates, you don't find it unreasonable to project further growth at the same rate? That would mean CAD will hit 1.25 during the next CBA.

I have to run, but we can easily appropriate growth to organic elements (the increase in fans, tickets sold, new revenue streams, etc.) and the increase due to translating the HRR from CAD receipts to USD--- for purposes of setting a cap. (Annual avg for league year, per Bank of Canada rates.)

Thus there has been real growth too. Only 14% of the actual growth is attributed to gain from CAD translation.
 

Pepper

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Aug 30, 2004
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If you believe some of the goofballs hoarding gold and silver and getting their economic advice from guys like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul, that (or worse) will happen in the next few years as the US dollar collapses.

Personally, I find that highly unlikely.

While I think Canada has much stronger economy than US, Canada can't survive 1.25 exchange rate in the long run, their raw material-based industries will take a huge hit.

US has the most flexible economy of all OECD countries, that will lead to increased economic growth which leads to stronger USD.
 
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PanthersHockey1

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out of curiosity what happens to coaches and GM's during this time? Im assuming they are on the same side as NHL ownership group and not have any communication with players. But can the GM and coach still meet and coordinate about the season and evaluate players and prospects? Can GM"s still meet with ownership? Why aren't GM's actively involved in the CBA negotiations because the GM acts as sort of an intermediary between owners and players? Are they being paid?
 

Pepper

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I have to run, but we can easily appropriate growth to organic elements (the increase in fans, tickets sold, new revenue streams, etc.) and the increase due to translating the HRR from CAD receipts to USD--- for purposes of setting a cap. (Annual avg for league year, per Bank of Canada rates.)

Thus there has been real growth too. Only 14% of the actual growth is attributed to gain from CAD translation.

If you only count the direct effect of increase in the nominal exchance rate between USD and CAD, you're going to get miscalculations.

Before the 04-05 lock-out, teams like Oilers, Flames, Canucks and Senators were in the ropes. When CAD appreciated, the Canadian teams became stronger financially, they became more competitive and gained more fan & commercial money. So the indirect growth given by the CAD appreciation increased the total league revenues much more than just the change in exchange rate.

I.e. if Oilers got 1000 CADin revenues back in 04, that translated into ~700 USD. When the CAD made gains, that 1000 became 950USD. But because Oilers became more competitive financially, they got 1200 CAD in revenues which increased the revenues in USD more than 250.
 

rdawg1234

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If they're gonna keep the revenue growth kicker, they should drop it to a more reasonable 4-5% rate, that might get the owners more interested.

7% is too much to expect, especially post lockout(teams may lose a few casual fans)

4% growth next year with a drop to just over 54% would maybe lose them about 10 million.

they could then increase it, maybe 4% first two years, 5% the next two.

7% is too much of a risk for the owners.
 

tantalum

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If they're gonna keep the revenue growth kicker, they should drop it to a more reasonable 4-5% rate, that might get the owners more interested.

7% is too much to expect, especially post lockout(teams may lose a few casual fans)

4% growth next year with a drop to just over 54% would maybe lose them about 10 million.

they could then increase it, maybe 4% first two years, 5% the next two.

7% is too much of a risk for the owners.

I'd wager the owners will never be interested even if the numbers are reasonable and indeed expected. You don't get rid of your house insurance because it's unlikely it will ever burn down. You keep it just in case the unlikely happens. The owners insurance is direct linkage in case revenues drop.

I would imagine the owners would be highly interested in a proposal like Paul Kelly mentioned and many have mentioned. Step things down over a few years until you reach the 50:50ish mark. They just aren't going to go there until they get the acknowledgement from the union that full linkage is a reality here to stay.
 

kdb209

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Which is...? Didn't revenue this past season grow by double-digit percentage, from 2.9 to 3.3?

That increase included two significant one-time factors - the new NBC/Comcast TV deal (which increased revenues ~$130M) and the move of the Thrashers/Jets (an increase of ~$35M based on Forbes numbers if WPG matches EDM revenue).
 

cheswick

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Mar 17, 2010
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If they're gonna keep the revenue growth kicker, they should drop it to a more reasonable 4-5% rate, that might get the owners more interested.

7% is too much to expect, especially post lockout(teams may lose a few casual fans)

4% growth next year with a drop to just over 54% would maybe lose them about 10 million.

they could then increase it, maybe 4% first two years, 5% the next two.

7% is too much of a risk for the owners.

Realistically just get rid of it and keep the linkage to revenue. Its putting all the risk on the owners. What if the revenue actually delcines one year. It's not that unrealistic. Players salaries could start accounting for 58, 59, 60% of revenues. The whole idea is a complete non-starter. The players and the NHL's intial proposals were equally unreleastic imo. I personally feel the NHL has made movement to come to an actual deal than the PA has

In terms of ELC and stuff like that, the reality is it doesn't really hurt the players salary wise. It simply shifts when they will be making their money. Since salaries are based on revenues the overall salary pool will remain unchanged if a player is a free agent at 22 or 30. It doesnt affect their salaires since the aggreate salary is the same regardless.
 

Pepper

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About 11 posts up, for the moment.

Ok I misunderstood you. What I'm saying is that we should use organic growth-rate, i.e. growth-rate without currency effects. And the term should be longer than 2 years, for example the term of the last CBA.


Just out of curiousity, where are you from? There are not many NHL-fans in southern Europe.
 

Pepper

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/s...bal&adxnnlx=1348185896-t6F0StfvfY8jpyGmsx71SA

Damn those evil NHL leaders!

Jagr said come Wednesday morning the players did not know if they would be able to play.

“We were ready to cancel this game,” he said.

To expedite the process, Jagr had made a late phone call Tuesday to his former Rangers teammate Brendan Shanahan, who is now an N.H.L. vice president.

“I have to say thanks to Brendan Shanahan who helped me a lot,” Jagr said. “Shanahan did a great job and put Gary Bettman and Bill Daly on the phone, and eventually we were able to play.”
 

Crows*

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Heads up... Fehr will be on the team 1040 in Vancouver at 1:30 pacific time.
 

rdawg1234

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Jul 2, 2012
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Heads up... Fehr will be on the team 1040 in Vancouver at 1:30 pacific time.

oh goodness. Gonna be alot more straight shots to the NHL, "they're not being fair, we're only asking for average growth, it's the best deal they could accept etc. etc."
 

rdawg1234

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Jul 2, 2012
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Realistically just get rid of it and keep the linkage to revenue. Its putting all the risk on the owners. What if the revenue actually delcines one year. It's not that unrealistic. Players salaries could start accounting for 58, 59, 60% of revenues. The whole idea is a complete non-starter. The players and the NHL's intial proposals were equally unreleastic imo. I personally feel the NHL has made movement to come to an actual deal than the PA has

In terms of ELC and stuff like that, the reality is it doesn't really hurt the players salary wise. It simply shifts when they will be making their money. Since salaries are based on revenues the overall salary pool will remain unchanged if a player is a free agent at 22 or 30. It doesnt affect their salaires since the aggreate salary is the same regardless.

I agree it's a non-starter, the NHL comes out back in june saying they want to cut salaries a bit and the PA responds with "ok, we'll offer you the ability to give us smaller raises!"

meanwhile the PA is about to hit over 2.2 billion within a couple years, which is what the NHL as a whole was making during the last lockout. Do they really need that money? or can they wait an extra year or two to hit over 2.0 billion and just take a cut? Because either way, if this lasts for say 6 years, they'll be at 2.5 billion+ with their share, even at 50% Which is more than double what they made as a whole a few years ago.
 

LadyStanley

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http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...rs-side-it-probably-isnt-all-about-the-money/

Edmonton Journal: Fairness is a common theme in negotiations

Is this dispute is about money or principle? I think it’s probably fair to say “both.†Why? Let me quote from the excellent book Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior. The following excerpt is from Chapter Six: “In France, the Sun Revolves Around the Earth.â€
...
The splitting participant could divvy up the money any way he or she wanted. The receiving partner was then presented with the offer and had to decide whether to accept it or not. If the receiving partner accepted, both participants would collect their shares. If he or she rejected the offer, both parties would leave empty-handed.
...
The interesting part is what happened when the people deciding on the split gave themselves more than half. As you can imagine, their partners felt indignant. But were they indignant enough to walk away from the money? The answer, a vast majority of the time, was a resounding yes. Rather than accept the money they had been offered, most participants who were presented with an unfair split rejected it, opting instead to walk away empty-handed.
...
When Gary Bettman argues that the players will be better off financially if they just start making concessions now and avoid missing any games, he isn’t wrong. Players have short careers. Losing even half a season represents a bigger drop in total career earnings than the concessions they’d make to the league. From a financial perspective, it strikes me as all but inarguable that the players’ best bet is to settle quickly.
But then, that’s not really the point. I think when the players, for the most part, look at how things have been handled they’re struck by the unfairness of the league’s position. Gary Bettman has been trumpeting the league’s record revenues ever since the last lockout. Now he’s demanding massive concessions. Owners have signed players to long-term deals – as recently as the day the collective bargaining agreement expired. Now they’re hoping to claw some of that money back, in their first offer through a rollback and in later offers through escrow. The league couldn’t exist without the players – what right to guys in suits have to demand concessions every time the CBA expires?
Fans have a different perspective. For a guy making $50,000 a year, it’s hard to get around the fact that a guy making $10 million to play a game isn’t willing to accept $8 million (or, for that matter, $500,000). Yet, some players have already shown that it’s not about the dollar figure – signing for less money to play for leagues in Europe. For a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he’ll go from a base salary of $925,000 in the NHL (before bonuses) down to $70,000 in the minors – and yet, the indications are that he’s going to do it. Ditto for Jordan Eberle, who can look forward to $65,000 for a full year in Oklahoma this year – and $6 million (should his current contract be unaltered) in the NHL next year.
 

Boltsfan2029

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Jul 8, 2002
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Yet, some players have already shown that it’s not about the dollar figure – signing for less money to play for leagues in Europe. For a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he’ll go from a base salary of $925,000 in the NHL (before bonuses) down to $70,000 in the minors – and yet, the indications are that he’s going to do it. Ditto for Jordan Eberle, who can look forward to $65,000 for a full year in Oklahoma this year – and $6 million (should his current contract be unaltered) in the NHL next year.

IMO, that doesn't show that it's not about the dollar figure. Now, if the player signed for less in Europe and did so permanently, *that* would show it wasn't about the dollar figure.
 

MaskedSonja

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Feb 3, 2007
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part IV already? that didn't take long.....


Seeing as they are cancelling the preseason games like Hockeyville and Barclay's center-is it safe to say that all preseason games are done (including ones in Oct)-not just end of Sept?

I'm guessing that we MIGHT see a last minute "attempt" before reg season games get cancelled, but it won't amount to much. After reg season starts getting cancelled, we'll probably have to wait a long time before a meeting of substance...
 

Gberg

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Oct 13, 2009
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I don't really see how this NHLPA business in Alberta is helping any negotiations. If they lose, they just wasted time. If they win, well, the NHL will be pissed off that they wasted their time (and potentially 100million dollars in a lockout) and still not negotiate any differently than their crap offers. I doubt they're gonna go, Ok, we'll give you a better deal now that you've proven to arses.
 

JAX

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Apr 7, 2009
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I don't really see how this NHLPA business in Alberta is helping any negotiations. If they lose, they just wasted time. If they win, well, the NHL will be pissed off that they wasted their time (and potentially 100million dollars in a lockout) and still not negotiate any differently than their crap offers. I doubt they're gonna go, Ok, we'll give you a better deal now that you've proven to arses.

That's why I thought the time and effort would have been better spent negotiating instead of this whitchhunt.
 
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