Ondrej Pavelec V: The Netminder Strikes Back

[Hollywood3]

It's time for a new chant:

All we are sayyyyyyyyyy-ing, is give Pete a chance!
(repeat several times)

(sung to the tune of "Give Peace a Chance" by John Lennon)

 

[CaptainChef]

Here's a piece on Pavelec, from LWOS:

http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/10/26/face-it-winnipeg-ondrej-pavelec-is-not-the-answer/

Excellent article. He actually dug up a few stats to show how bad Pavs is which is more than most of these guys will do.

I'm confused by this -- what does it mean ...... Actually, maybe the reason Pavelec is so bad is because of his zone starts. In the words of Mitch Tierney, Last Word On Sports featured columnist, “He’s like almost 100% in the defensive zone…. ridiculousâ€.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Excellent article. He actually dug up a few stats to show how bad Pavs is which is more than most of these guys will do.

I'm confused by this -- what does it mean ...... Actually, maybe the reason Pavelec is so bad is because of his zone starts. In the words of Mitch Tierney, Last Word On Sports featured columnist, “He’s like almost 100% in the defensive zone…. ridiculousâ€.

Sarcasm: the goalie 'starts' in the d-zone all the time, by definition.

 

[Hollywood3]

Sarcasm: the goalie 'starts' in the d-zone all the time, by definition.

Let Pavs lay up front! That might work.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Jabba pumping Pavs tires.

Beyak "SV % can be misleading

 

[tbcwpg]

Jabba pumping Pavs tires.

Beyak "SV % can be misleading

It can at this point of the season. History suggests it won't change much from here, though.

 

[CaptainChef]

Jabba pumping Pavs tires.

Beyak "SV % can be misleading

save % is obviously misleading -- its almost always lower for Pavs than the backups and he's paid 3.5 mil

 

[White Out 403*]

if this is how pavelec played game to game we'd all be huge fans. but he cant and is unable to.

 

[Andy6]

Never guess who the #1 NHL goalie is right now, according to NHL.com ...

Al Montoya ... 0.59 GPA and .974 SVP!

Admittedly he's only played about 5 periods but still ... I found it somewhat amusing to see that.

 

[garret9]

Beyak is right... Beyak is also wrong...

Sv% is misleading stat for small samples, in that a single game can be skewed by shots against.

That isn't true for career numbers... like Pavelec's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There were times in this game when he looked shaky, very shaky but he got it done. He made a couple of very good saves late in the game and in the OT.

Probably just the beneficiary of better play in front of him though.

 

[cbcwpg]

I don't know what's worse:

- Having Pavs play at a steady consistent .901 sv% every game

OR

- Play lights out one game then suck the next and get pulled. Rinse and repeat.

The end result could be an identical save %, but what is less stressful for the fans?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Beyak is right... Beyak is also wrong...

Sv% is misleading stat for small samples, in that a single game can be skewed by shots against.

That isn't true for career numbers... like Pavelec's.

I don't believe Beyak was implying the same thing you are. It was part of a "brainwash the fans" segment implying Pavelec is actually a good goalie.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

This kind of sums it up.

"So, the question really is, how long will it be before Winnipeg’s management comes to the same conclusion as the rest of the hockey world: that Pavelec can’t cut it as a bona fide number one goalie."

There is no point in blaming Pavs. He is what he is - and that is NOT an NHL caliber starting goalie. So the blame now has too be placed squarely on Maurice and Chevy. Chevy for not resolving this issue and Maurice for continuing to start Pavs as if he is an NHL caliber keeper.

Perhaps some blame can be placed on the fans (us) too, for not figuring out a way to require management to resolve this issue.

 

[TheDeuce]

Maybe the time has come to expand the scope of these discussions. Clearly anyone who isn't tightly connected to True North arrives at the same conclusion when considering Ondrej Pavelec's body of work. Random bloggers, stats gurus, or out-of-market mainstream journalists all come to the same conclusion. So why does our local media and TN themselves continue to subscribe to the flat earth theory?

I guess I can see TN being unwilling to admit their error in signing Pavelec to that anchor of a contract but what's the media's excuse? The should be holding Kevin Cheveldayoff absolutely accountable for his error. No way should he get off the hook by simply stating "Yes. Ondrej Pavelec is the number one goaltender going into next season."

Once he made that declaration he should have been grilled. Mercilessly. That decision needed to be dissected, examined, and put under the microscope. Full justification should have been extracted by the media members who have the access and opportunity to do such extraction. Instead we have a grinning bunch of cheerleaders who happily, uncritically, and unquestioningly serve up Jets PR propaganda. Why have an independent sports media in this city? We may as well just read True North press releases.

I had an interesting Twitter exchange with Barley Kives a couple of weeks ago:

Bartley Kives ‏@bkives Oct 15

Seriously, Winnipeg. Don't settle for mediocrity. Don't care if it's a football club, a mayor or content at a national museum. Push harder.
0 replies 66 retweets 81 favorites
MB ‏@MikeyTheDeuce Oct 15

@bkives @RickRalphTSN How do I push for our media to dig harder and deeper with our #Bombers and #winnipegjets on some of their decisions?
0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites
Bartley Kives ‏@bkives Oct 15

@MikeyTheDeuce I think you just did. My colleagues work hard. They have to stickhandle through all sorts of mazes.


Why does TN get complete control of the message? The Sun, Freep, and 1290 should get to call the shots, especially 1290 since they pump so much money into the purchase of Jets rights.

If the government put a numerical illiterate in charge of the province's finances the media would rightly ride them hard over such a decision. The Jets' management should be ridden equally hard over their questionable decisions.



m.

 

[knorthern knight]

Management said we needed to evaluate Pavelec behind a better defense. Here are the results so far this season

Date | Result | Starter | Shots against
20141009|W|Pavelec|28
20141011|L|Pavelec|26
20141012|L|Hutchinson|31
20141017|L|Pavelec|27
20141019|L|Pavelec|29
20141021|W|Pavelec|22
20141024|L|Pavelec|27
20141026|W|Pavelec|23

The takeaway is...

• we've had 2 games with 23 or fewer shots against and won both of them
• we've had 6 games with 26 or more shots against and we've gone 1-and-5 in them

As of the morning of Oct 27, Winnipeg had the 5th fewest shots against per game in the NHL http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-against-per-game/2014/ Stop whining about Clitsome/Stuart/Bogosian. We do have problems, but defense isn't one of them. And we're not that bad with shots on the opposing team's net, coming in tied for 10th so far... http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-per-game/2014/ How long before management management realizes the problem is in the goal crease?

 

[Jet]

Management said we needed to evaluate Pavelec behind a better defense. Here are the results so far this season

Date | Result | Starter | Shots against
20141009|W|Pavelec|28
20141011|L|Pavelec|26
20141012|L|Hutchinson|31
20141017|L|Pavelec|27
20141019|L|Pavelec|29
20141021|W|Pavelec|22
20141024|L|Pavelec|27
20141026|W|Pavelec|23

The takeaway is...

• we've had 2 games with 23 or fewer shots against and won both of them
• we've had 6 games with 26 or more shots against and we've gone 1-and-5 in them

As of the morning of Oct 27, Winnipeg had the 5th fewest shots against per game in the NHL http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-against-per-game/2014/ Stop whining about Clitsome/Stuart/Bogosian. We do have problems, but defense isn't one of them. And we're not that bad with shots on the opposing team's net, coming in tied for 10th so far... http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-per-game/2014/ How long before management management realizes the problem is in the goal crease?

Thank you. We do have some pretty putrid moments in our own zone but so does every other team to some extent.

I think the Jets have a pretty decent defense, and the numbers bear that out.

The goaltender needs to be replaced.

In the last PGT someone mentioned that the LOLPAVS group (I HATE when posters get lumped into groups) are ridiculous when they pick apart individual goals and place blame on Pav for it.

I for one, (if I am in this group somehow) will point out what I think Pavelec's mistakes were when he scores a goal, but I am more concerned with his mechanics and behaviours on the ice. That is why I am still critical of him when we win. The mechanics and behaviours are what will lead to future preventable goals.

The last few minutes of the 3rd were terrifying for me last night. Not because the Jets were being destroyed by NYI, on the contrary. The Jets played a beautiful 3rd. I was terrified because Pavelec looked absolutely out of it and the few chances that NYI had did not go in just due to dumb luck, a position player preventing it, or a misfire by the Isles.

Pavelec was terribly out of position, losing the puck, and flopping and guessing.

THAT is what I don't like about Pavelec. I was hoping he was working towards eliminating that from his game, but it's clear he can't.

All we can do now is wait for the other shoe to drop. I hope we don't waste another season waiting.

 

[knorthern knight]

Management said we needed to evaluate Pavelec behind a better defense. Here are the results so far this season. Update after 9 games.

Date | Result | Starter | Shots against
20141009|W|Pavelec|28
20141011|L|Pavelec|26
20141012|L|Hutchinson|31
20141017|L|Pavelec|27
20141019|L|Pavelec|29
20141021|W|Pavelec|22
20141024|L|Pavelec|27
20141026|W|Pavelec|23
20141028|W|Pavalec|21

The takeaway is...

• we've had 3 games with 23 or fewer shots against and won all 3 of them
• we've had 6 games with between 26-to-31 shots against and we've gone 1-and-5 in them

As of the morning of Oct 29, Winnipeg had the 4th fewest shots against per game in the NHL http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-against-per-game/2014/ Stop whining about Clitsome/Stuart/Bogosian/Pardy. We do have problems, but defense isn't one of them. And we're not that bad with shots on the opposing team's net, coming 11th so far... http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-per-game/2014/ Pavelec has a .901 SV%, so the only way we can win is to keep shots against to 23 or less per game. Montoya would look so good right about now.

 

[Hollywood3]

Management said we needed to evaluate Pavelec behind a better defense. Here are the results so far this season. Update after 9 games.

Date | Result | Starter | Shots against
20141009|W|Pavelec|28
20141011|L|Pavelec|26
20141012|L|Hutchinson|31
20141017|L|Pavelec|27
20141019|L|Pavelec|29
20141021|W|Pavelec|22
20141024|L|Pavelec|27
20141026|W|Pavelec|23
20141028|W|Pavalec|21

The takeaway is...

• we've had 3 games with 23 or fewer shots against and won all 3 of them
• we've had 6 games with between 26-to-31 shots against and we've gone 1-and-5 in them

As of the morning of Oct 29, Winnipeg had the 4th fewest shots against per game in the NHL http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-against-per-game/2014/ Stop whining about Clitsome/Stuart/Bogosian/Pardy. We do have problems, but defense isn't one of them. And we're not that bad with shots on the opposing team's net, coming 11th so far... http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shots-per-game/2014/ Pavelec has a .901 SV%, so the only way we can win is to keep shots against to 23 or less per game. Montoya would look so good right about now.

Facts.

What would the world be like without them?

 

[cbcwpg]

Management said we needed to evaluate Pavelec behind a better defense.
The takeaway is...

Pavelec has a .901 SV%, so the only way we can win is to keep shots against to 23 or less per game.

Which is a around about way is proving what most are saying... Pavelec is not an adequate starting goalie. If you give up only 20 shots a game you should be able to win with anyone in net. If you reduce that to 10 shots, hell, you could put me in net and you might still win. But that's not reality. You are just going to have games where you allow more shots and the goalie needs to step up.

I agree with the premise of lowering the number of shots against to win. I mean what team wouldn't want that. But, If the only way to win is to to never allow more than 20-23 shots, you probably need a better goalie IMO.

 

[tbcwpg]

Thank you. We do have some pretty putrid moments in our own zone but so does every other team to some extent.

I think the Jets have a pretty decent defense, and the numbers bear that out.

The goaltender needs to be replaced.

In the last PGT someone mentioned that the LOLPAVS group (I HATE when posters get lumped into groups) are ridiculous when they pick apart individual goals and place blame on Pav for it.

I for one, (if I am in this group somehow) will point out what I think Pavelec's mistakes were when he scores a goal, but I am more concerned with his mechanics and behaviours on the ice. That is why I am still critical of him when we win. The mechanics and behaviours are what will lead to future preventable goals.

The last few minutes of the 3rd were terrifying for me last night. Not because the Jets were being destroyed by NYI, on the contrary. The Jets played a beautiful 3rd. I was terrified because Pavelec looked absolutely out of it and the few chances that NYI had did not go in just due to dumb luck, a position player preventing it, or a misfire by the Isles.

Pavelec was terribly out of position, losing the puck, and flopping and guessing.

THAT is what I don't like about Pavelec. I was hoping he was working towards eliminating that from his game, but it's clear he can't.

All we can do now is wait for the other shoe to drop. I hope we don't waste another season waiting.

I mentioned the LOLPAVS group, although I would only place 3 or 4 regular posters into that group (not yourself), and about the same on the other side. I think the rest of us in the middle are on varying degrees of wanting to discuss the goalie exhaustively or wanting to acknowledge the part the D plays in some of these goals, because just because a goalie should bail the defence out of mistakes on occasion, we need to limit those mistakes. As you see mechanics in Pavelec's game, I can see mechanics with some of the defence that point to preventable, behavioural issues.

I don't believe this team is a new goaltender away from the playoffs. Perhaps they were in the SE. Not in the Central.

 

[Skidooboy]

I mentioned the LOLPAVS group, although I would only place 3 or 4 regular posters into that group (not yourself), and about the same on the other side. I think the rest of us in the middle are on varying degrees of wanting to discuss the goalie exhaustively or wanting to acknowledge the part the D plays in some of these goals, because just because a goalie should bail the defence out of mistakes on occasion, we need to limit those mistakes. As you see mechanics in Pavelec's game, I can see mechanics with some of the defence that point to preventable, behavioural issues.

I don't believe this team is a new goaltender away from the playoffs. Perhaps they were in the SE. Not in the Central.

You say that like you have an argument to support your hypothesis.

I'd like to hear it.

I think the jets are indeed a playoff team. They are big they are fast and they, when healthy and playing well, can compete with all but the very best. Blue collar lunchbox teams make the playoffs every year. Will they go all the way? Far less likely, But the Oil's last cup final shows even that can happen.

I'd like to see someone measure the effect on the "D"'s performance when they aren't carrying the psychological weight of playing in front of the leagues worst goalie.

 

[White Out 403*]

I mentioned the LOLPAVS group, although I would only place 3 or 4 regular posters into that group (not yourself), and about the same on the other side. I think the rest of us in the middle are on varying degrees of wanting to discuss the goalie exhaustively or wanting to acknowledge the part the D plays in some of these goals, because just because a goalie should bail the defence out of mistakes on occasion, we need to limit those mistakes. As you see mechanics in Pavelec's game, I can see mechanics with some of the defence that point to preventable, behavioural issues.

I don't believe this team is a new goaltender away from the playoffs. Perhaps they were in the SE. Not in the Central.

the data simply doesnt agree with you. dunno what else to say.

 

[Hollywood3]

the data simply doesnt agree with you. dunno what else to say.

Being 4th in fewest shots allowed is excellent and reflects well on coaches and defencemen.

The 901 is clearly the biggest problem. Hard to see how some miss it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mentioned the LOLPAVS group, although I would only place 3 or 4 regular posters into that group (not yourself), and about the same on the other side. I think the rest of us in the middle are on varying degrees of wanting to discuss the goalie exhaustively or wanting to acknowledge the part the D plays in some of these goals, because just because a goalie should bail the defence out of mistakes on occasion, we need to limit those mistakes. As you see mechanics in Pavelec's game, I can see mechanics with some of the defence that point to preventable, behavioural issues.

I don't believe this team is a new goaltender away from the playoffs. Perhaps they were in the SE. Not in the Central.

the data simply doesnt agree with you. dunno what else to say.

Taking the available data at face value seems to say they are a play-off team with league average goaltending. It is a complex situation though. I took a look at goals F/A ratio and concluded that the Jets would almost certainly have made the play-offs last year. Garett did a much better (of course) analysis. I can't remember all the details but the result was still that the Jets would probably have made the play-offs but much less certainly than I had thought.

Taking that analysis and adding in a reduction in SA supports the idea that they are a play-off team with better goaltending. And yes I know that the SA reduction is probably not sustainable at its current level but even if it settles to half what it is currently running at it would be significant.