Ondrej Pavelec [MOD: see warning in the OP]

[Derfel*]

You keep talking about sample size but I feel like if you really respected sample size you'd want Pavelec gone. Am I misunderstanding you?

I'm saying that Hutch isn't necessarily the solution, and that goaltending overall isn't the problem with the Jets these past few games. To point at 45 games and say Hutch is this elite level goalie isn't really being honest with the reality of his skill right now. We know what Pavelec is capable of and we saw what happens when he's on last season. Same goes with Hutch, but with lesser evidence to back that up as well.

Pavelec's performance last night and Hutchinson's performance against the Habs a couple of weeks back are both examples of goalies having bad games and what happens when the rest of the team also doesn't show up.

That's what I'm saying, and all I've been saying, and likely all I will be saying.

 

[KingBogo]

So far Hutch has been better than Pavs, but combined we have received nothing more than middle of the road goaltending. Jets currently rank 17th in team 5-5 Save% at .925. I'd probably give Hutch a greater share of the opportunities at this time, but IMO our long term future resides elsewhere.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I think we're going to bring back the "Goaltending" thread - there were other aspects to last night's game that were interesting, but somehow we're stuck on goalie A and goalie B again. This very thread is about Pavelec, not Pavelec vs. Hutch vs. ??

That way, if you don't like to discuss goalies, then you can simply ignore the thread (including being able to hit the little "X" on the thread to permanently ignore it), and we can discuss other points regarding the game in the GDT itself.

Note too: this is only in the "Who should start", "Who's better?", etc, vein. If you think that someone had a solid game, or if you think that they did NOT have a solid game, then obviously that's directly related to the OP of the thread. If it's to compare / contrast / debate the two - that's what would get moved.

Any objections?

 

[White Out 403*]

i think were in a position where it makes a lot of sense to have a thread for pavs vs hutch vs helley

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pavelec has played 8 times as many games as Hutchinson in the NHL.

Not making an argument either way, but sample size means something.

So look at Pav's career record. End of story. End of argument.

 

[Derfel*]

So look at Pav's career record. End of story. End of argument.

Sure - but we aren't travelling back in time are we? This is the 2015-16 season.

 

[veganhunter]

I'm saying that Hutch isn't necessarily the solution, and that goaltending overall isn't the problem with the Jets these past few games. To point at 45 games and say Hutch is this elite level goalie isn't really being honest with the reality of his skill right now. We know what Pavelec is capable of and we saw what happens when he's on last season. Same goes with Hutch, but with lesser evidence to back that up as well.

Pavelec's performance last night and Hutchinson's performance against the Habs a couple of weeks back are both examples of goalies having bad games and what happens when the rest of the team also doesn't show up.

That's what I'm saying, and all I've been saying, and likely all I will be saying.

Yupp .908, plenty of evidence that he is and always will be a below average NHL goaltender.

I'm not suggesting goaltending has been the main issue this season at all. Just in a more general sense Pavelec was always going to regress, he is what he is. He wasn't suddenly going to become a good goalie at his age, after that much time in the league. People that believe Pavelec is a "new Pavelec" after one really hot stretch last year make me roll eyes. Probably the same type of people that believe Clarkson was going to be a consistent 30 goal scorer and scream about how Thorburn doesn't suck when he makes his 1 highlight reel play a year.

 

[Derfel*]

Yupp .908, plenty of evidence that he is and always will be a below average NHL goaltender.

I'm not suggesting goaltending has been the main issue this season at all. Just in a more general sense Pavelec was always going to regress, he is what he is. He wasn't suddenly going to become a good goalie at his age, after that much time in the league. People that believe Pavelec is a "new Pavelec" after one really hot stretch last year make me roll eyes. Probably the same type of people that believe Clarkson was going to be a consistent 30 goal scorer and scream about how Thorburn doesn't suck when he makes his 1 highlight reel play a year.

That's some super cherry-picking you've done there to make an old point.

We'll see where we sit in another dozen games or so. I don't know if Pavelec will continue his improved play this season or not, but we're talking about this season now and we have seen stinkers posted by both of our roster goaltenders so far. We've also seen some outstanding play. I'm hopeful we'll see more of the latter than the former going forward, but I have no way of telling that this season.

 

[White Out 403*]

That's some super cherry-picking you've done there to make an old point.

We'll see where we sit in another dozen games or so. I don't know if Pavelec will continue his improved play this season or not, but we're talking about this season now and we have seen stinkers posted by both of our roster goaltenders so far. We've also seen some outstanding play. I'm hopeful we'll see more of the latter than the former going forward, but I have no way of telling that this season.

Who's cherry picking what? He's using a data sample of hundreds of games.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure - but we aren't travelling back in time are we? This is the 2015-16 season.

Then don't mention that Pav has 8 times as many games played as Hutch. 2015-16 season Hutch has a better W/L record, a better GAA and a significantly better SV%. Pav has played < twice as much as Hutch.

I can't figure out what argument you are trying to make.

 

[Derfel*]

Then don't mention that Pav has 8 times as many games played as Hutch. 2015-16 season Hutch has a better W/L record, a better GAA and a significantly better SV%. Pav has played < twice as much as Hutch.

I can't figure out what argument you are trying to make.

The 8 times as many games point was made when someone tried to compare lifetime NHL records to make some sort of "Hutch wins more so play him more and we win more" argument. It's not a valid argument.

 

[Derfel*]

Who's cherry picking what? He's using a data sample of hundreds of games.

I was referring to him bolding and taking only part of my comment to make his (old) point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yupp .908, plenty of evidence that he is and always will be a below average NHL goaltender.

I'm not suggesting goaltending has been the main issue this season at all. Just in a more general sense Pavelec was always going to regress, he is what he is. He wasn't suddenly going to become a good goalie at his age, after that much time in the league. People that believe Pavelec is a "new Pavelec" after one really hot stretch last year make me roll eyes. Probably the same type of people that believe Clarkson was going to be a consistent 30 goal scorer and scream about how Thorburn doesn't suck when he makes his 1 highlight reel play a year.

After his hot stretch last year we could not say with certainty that Pav had not improved as a result of some technical changes. He could possibly have been a late bloomer. The question was would he maintain improved play. Even those of us who were pretty confident he was no better couldn't know. We had the 4 PO games and now we have 10 starts this year. I think we have the answer now. Same old Pav. He will have some ups and downs this year but probably finishes with ~ .908 sv%, among the bottom 20% of starters in the league.

 

[veganhunter]

That's some super cherry-picking you've done there to make an old point.

We'll see where we sit in another dozen games or so. I don't know if Pavelec will continue his improved play this season or not, but we're talking about this season now and we have seen stinkers posted by both of our roster goaltenders so far. We've also seen some outstanding play. I'm hopeful we'll see more of the latter than the former going forward, but I have no way of telling that this season.

I don't think Hutch is the saviour. It likely wouldn't matter who is net the way this team is playing. I just find it comical that you cling to a tiny sample of Pav being good when the overwhelming evidence says he isn't, then you make a comment about Hutch's sample of being good is lesser than Pav's. While both statements are technically true if you can't see the hypocrisy and irony...

Again at this point it doesn't matter who is net, short of cloning a prime Hasek we haven't had a chance. But Pavelec isn't an above average starter or likely even an average one. the fact that we still trot out the possibility of him being good is mind boggling to me. We don't know if Hutch is good but more than likely he probably isn't much of an improvement on Pav.

 

[garret9]

Since people are talking about sample sizes:

This season:

Since Po-Mo's hire:

Last 3K shots (obv Hutch doesn't have 3k yet):

 

[Derfel*]

I don't think Hutch is the saviour. It likely wouldn't matter who is net the way this team is playing. I just find it comical that you cling to a tiny sample of Pav being good when the overwhelming evidence says he isn't, then you make a comment about Hutch's sample of being good is lesser than Pav's. While both statements are technically true if you can't see the hypocrisy and irony...

I'm not "clinging" to that idea at all - I'm just saying that Pavelec's weaknesses are not the only reason why the team is where it is in the standings this season. I knew he would be better than league average last season, and he was. I don't have that certainty this season. He may likely end up below league average again this year. I just knew about last season, that's all.

But from what I've seen from Hutchinson in his ~45 games or so, I'm not confident I can forecast his success either.

I just don't like the instant reaction of blaming Pavelec for anything that goes wrong with this team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The 8 times as many games point was made when someone tried to compare lifetime NHL records to make some sort of "Hutch wins more so play him more and we win more" argument. It's not a valid argument.

And my "look at his career record" was in response to that. Pav has a career record that shows he is a below average NHL starter. He loses more than he wins. He is a demonstrated inadequate goaltender. Hutch has a much better career record but also much shorter. Hutch is not proven one way or another. Pav is.

 

[White Out 403*]

I think the issue is derfel you do come out as a pavelec defender, and the mental gymnastic you use to back him up are what you're being called out for. Pavelec has 1 hot streak last year that got him to the league average. I've said it before and I'll happily repeat that Ondrej Pavelec for his entire 7 or 8 year career spanning hundreds of games has been a 908 goaltender. He had a 14 game hot streak that got him to 918 last season, then crapped the bed in fine form in the playoffs.

Then you say well, sample sized means Hutches success this year and good numbers dont mean much but you're perfectly willing to use Pavs 14 game hot streak to some how consecrate his success last year and pass it off like he was a rock all season. Not so. This isn't meant as a personal attack and I hope you don't see it as one, rather, I'm trying to -on a logical leve- square the circle of your pavs logic. If you want to use data, numbers, which you seem to want to pull from last season, you have to then accept this years data and his data from the first few hundred games of his career. To that you seem to be saying, this is this year, let's ignore the past... then ok... look at how bad he's doing so far. If then you say sample size is too small, you're putting yourself right back into a logical stand off with your own argument because his career data is atrocious.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Neither guy is going to shine if we don't
-stop taking dumb penalties
-stop giving up so many odd man rushes
This team in not playing well defensively

 

[Derfel*]

I think the issue is derfel you do come out as a pavelec defender, and the mental gymnastic you use to back him up are what you're being called out for. Pavelec has 1 hot streak last year that got him to the league average. I've said it before and I'll happily repeat that Ondrej Pavelec for his entire 7 or 8 year career spanning hundreds of games has been a 908 goaltender. He had a 14 game hot streak that got him to 918 last season, then crapped the bed in fine form in the playoffs.

Then you say well, sample sized means Hutches success this year and good numbers dont mean much but you're perfectly willing to use Pavs 14 game hot streak to some how consecrate his success last year and pass it off like he was a rock all season. Not so. This isn't meant as a personal attack and I hope you don't see it as one, rather, I'm trying to -on a logical leve- square the circle of your pavs logic. If you want to use data, numbers, which you seem to want to pull from last season, you have to then accept this years data and his data from the first few hundred games of his career. To that you seem to be saying, this is this year, let's ignore the past... then ok... look at how bad he's doing so far. If then you say sample size is too small, you're putting yourself right back into a logical stand off with your own argument because his career data is atrocious.

I made my (accurate) claim of an above-average season for Pavelec last season. I stood by my claim and promises. I am not making that claim this season. I am not performing "mental gymnastics" to defend him this season.

Hutchinson has better numbers right now, and I have said he should get the next start to see if he runs with it. When he was given the reins last season, he fell apart. Pavelec came back in and helped the Jets 2.0 get into the playoffs for the first time. Can he do it again? His career numbers say no, but his season last year says maybe.

I'm not the Pavelec fan you make me out to be. I'm just saying (elsewhere) that goaltending is not the only issue, and certainly not the largest issue, in the losses this year.

 

[veganhunter]

I'm not "clinging" to that idea at all - I'm just saying that Pavelec's weaknesses are not the only reason why the team is where it is in the standings this season. I knew he would be better than league average last season, and he was. I don't have that certainty this season. He may likely end up below league average again this year. I just knew about last season, that's all.

But from what I've seen from Hutchinson in his ~45 games or so, I'm not confident I can forecast his success either.

I just don't like the instant reaction of blaming Pavelec for anything that goes wrong with this team.

Give me a break, you didn't "know" anything. Knowing would mean you had some sort of information that led you to that conclusion (which you didn't). You made a wild proclamation against all odds that turned out be correct. For all intents and purposes you went all in with with 2-7 off suit and ended up with a full house.

 

[Derfel*]

Give me a break, you didn't "know" anything. Knowing would mean you had some sort of information that led you to that conclusion (which you didn't). You made a wild proclamation against all odds that turned out be correct. For all intents and purposes you went all in with with 2-7 off suit and ended up with a full house.

Meh - think what you will. I didn't think it was a "wild proclamation" at the time, even though I was the only one making it here.

But like I said, I don't have the same confidence this year.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Give me a break, you didn't "know" anything. Knowing would mean you had some sort of information that led you to that conclusion (which you didn't). You made a wild proclamation against all odds that turned out be correct. For all intents and purposes you went all in with with 2-7 off suit and ended up with a full house.

Voodoo, hunch, feeling, WAG, whatever it was, Derfel was the only one that I can see that got it right overall on Pav last year. Maybe 'know' was the wrong word to use. But you have to admit, he stayed on that position all the way through some pretty hard times and harsh criticisms. I know, cause I lobbed a few bombs his way too.

 

[garret9]

Voodoo, hunch, feeling, WAG, whatever it was, Derfel was the only one that I can see that got it right overall on Pav last year. Maybe 'know' was the wrong word to use. But you have to admit, he stayed on that position all the way through some pretty hard times and harsh criticisms. I know, cause I lobbed a few bombs his way too.

Actually, when everyone was making their bets I reminded everyone that Pavelec could be no different and still post a single season worth of above average sv%.

Many then agreed but said they will still take the odds.

Variance happens. Something having a low probability of happening still happens sometimes.

 

[Derfel*]

Actually, when everyone was making their bets I reminded everyone that Pavelec could be no different and still post a single season worth of above average sv%.

Many then agreed but said they will still take the odds.

Variance happens. Something having a low probability of happening still happens sometimes.

You actually said "0.906" several times, but later on you were a bit more cautious, yes.

Using the best goalie production predictive modeling we got with also age adjustments, Pavelec's most likely output next season is 0.903-0.905 save percentage.