Once again bottom of the league in PP opportunities

[member 96824]

When was the last time the B's had a player that carried the puck with speed?

B's play a certain style, they make crisp short passes and defenses rather than chasing them(which is where most stick infractions come from) are left behind via passing plays instead of skating speed.

When Matt Bartkowski gains the puck and flies through the neutral zone, there's a pretty damn good chance it was the first time a Bruins player did that all night.

It's not a knock on the team, just stylistically where they succeed with the personnel they have. To draw penalties, you have to carry the puck with speed. They don't have anyone that consistently carries the puck, nor do they have anyone who consistently beats defenses based on speed. Offensively, "The system" isn't designed to draw a bunch of power play time. It's designed to skate your lane, make short safer passes and create defensive holes that way.

I think this topic has come up every single year since Julien's been coach.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Disagree that Lonnie is closest. He's looking at a multifaceted problem one-dimensionally. The "Bruins aren't very fast" argument is just as weak as the "Bruins don't dive" argument.
The problem is that the disparity is just too big for that to explain it. It is, in fact, shockingly huge. DrQ posted an interesting stats link, so I took a look at last year's stats, and nope, there was no Bruin in the top 30 of the league at drawing penalties. Ok, so considering the per-team stats, that is not too surprising. So I looked deeper, and deeper. The biggest penalty draw on the Bruins was Brad Marchand - who is both a prolific skater, and an occasional embellisher - and he was 120th. The only other player in the top 200 was Chris Kelly at 193rd. That is statistically outside the curve (12x further out than the average team). Getting 80% of the power plays that the league leader gets would be explainable by speed. Getting 50-60% year over year is more than that.

ODAAT seemed closer - in addition to being slower/more deliberate on offense, the Bruins are more likely than most to play through checks. There are a couple of guys who will "sell it" in the playoffs, but very few who will do so in the regular season, opting instead to get back into the play asap. Still, I don't see a lot of lobbying for calls from CBJ and they get their fair share of power plays, and have plenty of players in the top 100 at drawing penalties.

I think there really is some bias at play. I've seen a couple of posts in this thread equating "belief in bias" to "conspiracy theory", but the two are not the same by any stretch. Bias can be subconscious, bias can be influenced by team perception, bias can be caused by "letting them play" vs "keeping the game under control", bias can be caused by "Marchand has fooled me before, I won't let him fool me today"

Great post. Thanks for taking the time to check the stats.

I think if you asked any official if he was biased, the answer would be an emphatic no, but bias can certainly be subliminal. I don't believe in any sort of conspiracy theories, but I do think that at times officials, like fans, have some preconceived notions.

So in your opinion (and you watch these games, I'm sure), it's due to the Bruins being tougher and the league officials not liking them? That's what these very important stats mean?

EDIT: BrainOfJ gets it.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

...

The risk-averse style is by design. And would not change no matter what the personnel as long as Julien is the coach here. Not only is it an effective strategy when executed efficiently - but the Bruins are astonishingly GOOD at it. It is NOT a negative criticism. It is a COMPLIMENT... and perhaps the primary reason they've been successful in recent years.

I find it incredulous to believe that a board full of intelligent hockey people would be more apt to blame league-wide conspiracy, than simply recognize the biggest and most positive difference between the Bruins and most other teams in the league.

 

[Braunbaer]

I'd like to see that aggressive type of play more from the defensemen as they mature. Sometimes it seems like they overthink it and are too afraid of turning it over so they make a predictable and safe pass.

I think that's because the guy behind the bench prefers the predictable and safe pass from time to time.
There were times I believed a Bruins attack cannot start before the puck was passend from one D to another behind the goal.


As to the actual topic:
In the past years it was often the case the Bruins led the majority of the game. Leading teams tend to "sit back" a little and let the others play. If you sit back you cannot draw any penalties. I bet there is a stat that says trailing teams draw more penalties because they carry the play most of the time.

But then again, this season we trail a lot more than before ...

 

[22Brad Park]

Its called rigged NHL.Boston known as team kind of rough n muckers so refs treat them that way.

 

[Artemis]

So in your opinion (and you watch these games, I'm sure), it's due to the Bruins being tougher and the league officials not liking them? That's what these very important stats mean?

EDIT: BrainOfJ gets it.

That to draw penalties, you have to carry the puck with speed? That's a fairly sweeping statement, isn't it? That accounts for a lot of tripping and hooking calls, but what about cross-checking, boarding, elbowing, high sticking, spearing, roughing? How does that account for such things as Chara getting high-sticked in the face (with blood dripping from his nose) and no call?

And I think you're going a bit overboard by accusing people who think there may be subconscious bias of believing in conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories are a crock.

 

[HumBucker]

Wasn't there a study done some years ago about pro sports teams that wear black uniforms getting called for more infractions? The conclusion or implication being that there's a perception bias on the part of the officials.

Might this not be part of such a perceptual bias? The team in black not getting calls going their way?

Wonder how other teams with black unis (Kings? Penguins?) compare to the Bruins in these stats.

 

[Ten Thousand Hours]

When was the last time the B's had a player that carried the puck with speed?

B's play a certain style, they make crisp short passes and defenses rather than chasing them(which is where most stick infractions come from) are left behind via passing plays instead of skating speed.

When Matt Bartkowski gains the puck and flies through the neutral zone, there's a pretty damn good chance it was the first time a Bruins player did that all night.

It's not a knock on the team, just stylistically where they succeed with the personnel they have. To draw penalties, you have to carry the puck with speed. They don't have anyone that consistently carries the puck, nor do they have anyone who consistently beats defenses based on speed. Offensively, "The system" isn't designed to draw a bunch of power play time. It's designed to skate your lane, make short safer passes and create defensive holes that way.

I think this topic has come up every single year since Julien's been coach.

Not buying that. Here are the top 30 players in penalties drawn per 60 minutes this year (minimum 10 games).

DANIEL CARCILLO
KYLE TURRIS
JEREMY MORIN
NAZEM KADRI
TOMAS JURCO
ERIK COLE
ALEXANDER SEMIN
ROB KLINKHAMMER
TOMMY WINGELS
BOONE JENNER
MATT DUCHENE
BRAD MALONE
ALEXANDER STEEN
DENNIS EVERBERG
MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI
KYLE OKPOSO
NICK BJUGSTAD
NATHAN GERBE
MATT CALVERT
LEON DRAISAITL
NATHAN MACKINNON
JOHAN FRANZEN
MATT STAJAN
MAXIME TALBOT
KRIS VERSTEEG
LANCE BOUMA
ADAM BURISH
MILAN MICHALEK
SIDNEY CROSBY
CODY MCCORMICK

How many of those guys have much more skill and/or are better puck carriers than any Bruins? Obviously Crosby and Duchene. MacKinnon too. Steen? Franzen? Turris? Semin? After that, you can't really argue that we don't have those type of players. You're going off your gut feeling on what draws penalties, not facts. No Malkin on this list. No Datsyuk, no Seguin, no Nash, no Thornton. It's a random assortment of dudes, most of whom would fit on this team, but of course none of them are on this team.

 

[HumBucker]

The reason is obvious: Clode won't share his KFC with the refs.

 

[member 96824]

Not buying that. Here are the top 30 players in penalties drawn per 60 minutes this year (minimum 10 games).

DANIEL CARCILLO
KYLE TURRIS
JEREMY MORIN
NAZEM KADRI
TOMAS JURCO
ERIK COLE
ALEXANDER SEMIN
ROB KLINKHAMMER
TOMMY WINGELS
BOONE JENNER
MATT DUCHENE
BRAD MALONE
ALEXANDER STEEN
DENNIS EVERBERG
MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI
KYLE OKPOSO
NICK BJUGSTAD
NATHAN GERBE
MATT CALVERT
LEON DRAISAITL
NATHAN MACKINNON
JOHAN FRANZEN
MATT STAJAN
MAXIME TALBOT
KRIS VERSTEEG
LANCE BOUMA
ADAM BURISH
MILAN MICHALEK
SIDNEY CROSBY
CODY MCCORMICK

How many of those guys have much more skill and/or are better puck carriers than any Bruins? Obviously Crosby and Duchene. MacKinnon too. Steen? Franzen? Turris? Semin? After that, you can't really argue that we don't have those type of players. You're going off your gut feeling on what draws penalties, not facts. No Malkin on this list. No Datsyuk, no Seguin, no Nash, no Thornton. It's a random assortment of dudes, most of whom would fit on this team, but of course none of them are on this team.

Appreciate the research TTH, but I'm not buying that either.
Individual players per 60, 24 games into the year doesn't really disprove my point about teams. The fact that Carcillo is at the top of that list should be your first indicator that it may be a little skewed...but there are definitely plenty of players on that list that like to carry the puck. Turris, Steen definitely carry the puck quite a bit, Steen more this year since he hasn't been playing with Oshie. Semin? Loves to carry the puck and shoot. Franzen definitely not, but the dude doesn't go above the hashmarks, which is probably where I'm assuming a lot of those go.

A good example of this...look at Washington this year(2nd to last in PP opportunities so far) compared to last year (2nd overall in opportunities) after the switch from Adam Oates to Barry Trotz. Since 09-10(As far back as I felt looking), Barry Trotz has only had one year where he wasn't bottom 5 in the league in PP opportunities, and that year he had the 7th least.

So which is more likely, we've been in the bottom 5 of the league every year since Claude took the bench because of some league wide conspiracy? Or is it because the style of play that we have...including how we move the puck.

NJD under Julien: 27th
MONTREAL under Julien: 28th, 24th

It's a conversation that literally comes up every year.

 

[Gee Wally]

So which is more likely, we've been in the bottom 5 of the league every year since Claude took the bench because of some league wide conspiracy? Or is it because the style of play that we have...including how we move the puck.

NJD under Julien: 27th
MONTREAL under Julien: 28th, 24th

It's a conversation that literally comes up every year.

Now, that says a lot.

 

[LSCII]

Appreciate the research TTH, but I'm not buying that either.
Individual players per 60, 24 games into the year doesn't really disprove my point about teams. The fact that Carcillo is at the top of that list should be your first indicator that it may be a little skewed...but there are definitely plenty of players on that list that like to carry the puck. Turris, Steen definitely carry the puck quite a bit, Steen more this year since he hasn't been playing with Oshie. Semin? Loves to carry the puck and shoot. Franzen definitely not, but the dude doesn't go above the hashmarks, which is probably where I'm assuming a lot of those go.

A good example of this...look at Washington this year(2nd to last in PP opportunities so far) compared to last year (2nd overall in opportunities) after the switch from Adam Oates to Barry Trotz. Since 09-10(As far back as I felt looking), Barry Trotz has only had one year where he wasn't bottom 5 in the league in PP opportunities, and that year he had the 7th least.

So which is more likely, we've been in the bottom 5 of the league every year since Claude took the bench because of some league wide conspiracy? Or is it because the style of play that we have...including how we move the puck.

NJD under Julien: 27th
MONTREAL under Julien: 28th, 24th

It's a conversation that literally comes up every year.

No way man. It's a conspiracy. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it.

 

[RedeyeRocketeer]

Now, that says a lot.

No way man. It's a conspiracy. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it.

So then it's got nothing to do with speed, or diving. It is indeed our system.

The part that's weird to me is come playoff time, when the whistles often get put away, the same system averages over 3 PP's a game.

 

[qc]

I'm sure Marshy - and to a lesser extent Lucic - are not going to get the benefit of the doubt too often with refs. Other than that, there's no conspiracy or bias. Brad is right, having more players with the speed/puck possession skill combo results in more drawn calls.

 

[TCL40]

March and practically has to be carried off the ice on a stretcher to draw calls. His speed draws penalties all the time but the refs don't call them which leads to my theory.

It's a combination if ref incompetence and reputation. I think the Bruins 'Big Bad' reputation leads to refs thinking the Bruins are 99% the aggressor so they have a "you brought it on yourself" attitude. I think thus out s why Bruins often get sent fir roughing calls that other teams don't get when they play us. Also it seems like refs are probe to sending both players or just the Bruins to the box.

One reason our new softer team is struggling is they are softer but the reds call them like every guy Haas lucic or Chara on the back instead of Krug.

I don't think there us an intentional ref conspiracy and believe the reputation calls are more unconscious than conscious.

 

[TCL40]

This is the most relevant post in this thread, IMO. When the statistics don't seem to vary for one team, but they do for the rest, common sense and logic could indicate that something else is at play.

Maybe it's bias, maybe it's conspiracy, maybe it's just plain incompetence.

I'm guessing that if we looked at the past 5 or 10 years, every team has ebbed and flowed up or down a considerable amount, except one.

Maybe certain teams have hovered in the bottom third or so, but to be as low as the Bruins have been consistently for such a long time flies in the face of logic.

Regardless of what people think of this team, this season, I don't think that anyone can say that overall they haven't been a hard working team.

My guess US if you averaged 5-10 years you would find most teams would gravitate towards the mean for any given year because there us an ebb and flow. The Bruins mean would still hover well away from the nhl one.

I still don't see it as a conscious conspiracy but I think reputation is a huge reason why and that combined with general incompetence means the Bruins get screwed.

 

[C77]

...

The risk-averse style is by design. And would not change no matter what the personnel as long as Julien is the coach here. Not only is it an effective strategy when executed efficiently - but the Bruins are astonishingly GOOD at it. It is NOT a negative criticism. It is a COMPLIMENT... and perhaps the primary reason they've been successful in recent years.

I find it incredulous to believe that a board full of intelligent hockey people would be more apt to blame league-wide conspiracy, than simply recognize the biggest and most positive difference between the Bruins and most other teams in the league.

I was thinking about this. I think with the big and heavy personnel that Julien has had in the past on defense the risk-averse strategy paid off more. I also think that over the past few years it has become significantly harder to generate 5 on 5 offense in the NHL due to the increase in shot blocks, better coaching (attention to stick position) and improvement in goaltending.

I think the cycle game in the offensive zone is outdated in today's NHL for the same reasons. The defensive players (like the Bruins in their own zone) don't often chase out of position so it doesn't leave anyone open. Plus, all the defensive players tend to pack it in in front of the goal meaning that you can't get a pass to an open man in the slot very easily. In the slot, in such a tight window, beating the massive goalies requires such a quick release and accurate shot that the vast majority of players aren't capable of doing it. The result is the pass it back to the uncovered point and hope for deflection strategy. I think it would be nice if they made the net bigger but that's a different argument.

I watch a lot of NHL games and outside of the later part of the 2nd period there isn't usually a time when the game gets out of the coaches' control 5 on 5 to the point that you feel like a goal is right around the corner.

For the above reasons I think getting on the PP and having a good PP is more important than ever because 5 on 5 has become a hockey quagmire.

Maybe while the Bruins still have Chara it makes sense to keep to the short pass, risk averse style but I do not think in the future the Bruins should stick to it. I know that Julien is having Morrow focus on making simple plays for now as he adjusts to the NHL but in the future I'd like to see him and Hamilton really turned loose. These guys are very talented compared to some of the players the Bruins have had in the past and I think the coach should try to benefit from their abilities to create more offense. I'm not saying that they need to always be taking risks but a little more freedom to make plays would be nice. I get frustrated when Hamilton works up a head of steam coming to the red line with the puck and then just dumps it in the offensive zone (not only in situations for a necessary line change). He did score that phenomenal goal against Toronto carrying the puck and I'd like to see more of that.

 

[Hali33]

I love our little rat but I don't feel bad that he doesn't get the calls. Like it or not it's a reputation that he's earned with his antics. That's what should happen when you dive.

 

[BsEuphoria]

I love our little rat but I don't feel bad that he doesn't get the calls. Like it or not it's a reputation that he's earned with his antics. That's what should happen when you dive.

But he's not the only one on the team that can get calls. I remember a few games ago Yeti literally getting pulled down from behind in the corner with the ref standing right there with no call. I literally busted out laughing clapping my hands it was so obvious. I'm honestly not even buying the we play tough bit and don't draw them anymore. It's past the point of ridiculous.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

That to draw penalties, you have to carry the puck with speed? That's a fairly sweeping statement, isn't it? That accounts for a lot of tripping and hooking calls, but what about cross-checking, boarding, elbowing, high sticking, spearing, roughing? How does that account for such things as Chara getting high-sticked in the face (with blood dripping from his nose) and no call?

And I think you're going a bit overboard by accusing people who think there may be subconscious bias of believing in conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories are a crock.

First off, that's not what I said. And how many times does Chara get high-sticked in the face with no call? Every game? Every ten games? Three times a year?

Second? I'm not the one suggesting it. It's people who look at the Bruins LAST in powerplay opportunities for YEARS and say "well there must be a bias against the Bruins!"

 

[HumBucker]

NJD under Julien: 27th
MONTREAL under Julien: 28th, 24th

It's a conversation that literally comes up every year.

This also supports my KFC theory.

 

[member 96824]

This also supports my KFC theory.

You may be on to something here!

 

[Artemis]

First off, that's not what I said. And how many times does Chara get high-sticked in the face with no call? Every game? Every ten games? Three times a year?

Second? I'm not the one suggesting it. It's people who look at the Bruins LAST in powerplay opportunities for YEARS and say "well there must be a bias against the Bruins!"

You said " Brain of J gets it," and that's what he said. Now I'm confused.

And there are differing schools of thought on bias/conspiracy. Some of us believe the former may be true, others seem to believe the latter. What you wrote implies that we're all in the same category.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

You said " Brain of J gets it," and that's what he said. Now I'm confused.

And there are differing schools of thought on bias/conspiracy. Some of us believe the former may be true, others seem to believe the latter. What you wrote implies that we're all in the same category.

You shouldn't be confused. YOU simplified the statement to make it sound absurd, rather than taking the entire post (plus my follow-up) into consideration. And you did it on purpose.

Bias/conspiracy BOTH are entirely absurd and as such, I lumped them together. Absolutely as well on purpose.

 

[Artemis]

You shouldn't be confused. YOU simplified the statement to make it sound absurd, rather than taking the entire post (plus my follow-up) into consideration. And you did it on purpose.

Bias/conspiracy BOTH are entirely absurd and as such, I lumped them together. Absolutely as well on purpose.

It's bizarre that you're stating I did something "on purpose" when I don't know what on earth you're talking about. I'll just give up here and drop it.