Player Discussion Oiler's Mid-Season grades

[Drivesaitl]

Points involving McDavid:

Nuge 1

Draisaitl 18

In fact if you want the full story:

Points with Draisaitl:

McDavid 18, Lucic 7, Maroon 6, Strome 5, Khaira 4, Nurse, RNH 3, Benning, Russell, Auvitu 2, Letestu, Klefbom, Davidson 1

Points with Nuge:

Maroon 9, Lucic 7, Russell 5, Strome, Cammalleri 4, Nurse, Benning, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi 3, Caggiula, Kassian, Slepyshev2, Larsson, McDavid, Klefbom and Sekera 1

This would seem to completely invalidate your entire position but as usual that will not matter in the slightest. So carry on​

So on the basis of that you are saying Nuge is the better player?

That's your conclusive rationale that "completely invalidates" any position to the contrary?

That's specious evaluation, which is not beyond refutation, and you know it.

Any look in that of McDavid being better when with Draisaitl? Or of Drai being one of the best pure passers in the league and who has already scored a higher amount of goals/pts in one season than Nuge ever has.

I guess if your shallow view is that Drai is McD dependent the above makes some kind of sense to you.

Lets be clear here too that Drai has not played much with Lucic and Maroon this season and hardly at all with Puljujarvi or some of the others you list. .

You want to go into, while we're at it who was better with Hall being that both players shared that role?

The FACT of the matter is that Nuge has had wingers that are more accomplished, for instance Lucic, Maroon, Pulju to work with while Drai is getting linemates like Strome and Khaira on a regular basis now and still getting more production than Nuge.

Finally, Nuge is a 7yr veteran who was a first pick, Drai has had now essentially 3 seasons of NHL play and was a 3rd pick yet has entirely eclipsed Nuge in value already. Can there be any doubt at all who has done more in their careers to get better and better and who has had a limited level of progress?

Nuge is one season removed from being one of the biggest disappointments on the club after last season and playoffs. Is he getting high marks here, this year, on the basis of improvement over what was regression in the first place?

Try plotting the production trajectory of these players on a graph. You might get a picture of why one was considered tradable for years and the other is considered Franchise material, highly sought after, and worthy of an 8.5M longterm contract.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

A- RNH , Nurse, Puljujarvi...the only 3 that have exceeded expectations
B- McDavid, Draisaitl, Larsson, Russell, Lucic, Khaira...Khaira is a B+ but started slow, everyone else has been playing up to par...roughly
C- Maroon, Strome, Letestu, Auvitu, Brossoit Cammalleri..all playing below expectations...need more from every one of them
D- Talbot, Klefbom, Benning, Kassian, Gryba, Caggulia, Slepy...some pretty important players playing terrible right here

F- Coaching staff....historical lows on the PK and the PP ain't very good either...it has cost them too many games
D- GM Chiarelli- signing McDavid long-term was a major win, even overpaying Drasaitl is good, other than that he's failed badly...his "bets" haven't worked

 

[Fourier]

So on the basis of that you are saying Nuge is the better player?

That's your conclusive rationale that "completely invalidates" any position to the contrary?

That's specious evaluation, which is not beyond refutation, and you know it.

Any look in that of McDavid being better when with Draisaitl? Or of Drai being one of the best pure passers in the league and who has already scored a higher amount of goals/pts in one season than Nuge ever has.

I guess if your shallow view is that Drai is McD dependent the above makes some kind of sense to you.

Lets be clear here too that Drai has not played much with Lucic and Maroon this season and hardly at all with Puljujarvi or some of the others you list. .

You want to go into, while we're at it who was better with Hall being that both players shared that role?

The FACT of the matter is that Nuge has had wingers that are more accomplished, for instance Lucic, Maroon, Pulju to work with while Drai is getting linemates like Strome and Khaira on a regular basis now and still getting more production than Nuge.

Finally, Nuge is a 7yr veteran who was a first pick, Drai has had now essentially 3 seasons of NHL play and was a 3rd pick yet has entirely eclipsed Nuge in value already. Can there be any doubt at all who has done more in their careers to get better and better and who has had a limited level of progress?

Nuge is one season removed from being one of the biggest disappointments on the club after last season and playoffs. Is he getting high marks here, this year, on the basis of improvement over what was regression in the first place?

Try plotting the production trajectory of these players on a graph. You might get a picture of why one was considered tradable for years and the other is considered Franchise material, highly sought after, and worthy of an 8.5M longterm contract.

ES TOI with Maroon:

Draisaitl 248:07
Nuge 212:33

Maroon 156 pts in 340 games = .459 pts/gm
Strome 142 points in 297 games =.478 pts/gm

Just keep digging!

 

[Alowlyoilersfan]

if making the playoffs is passing, then everyone deserves an eff at this point.

if being a mediocre .500 team is passing, then a lot of players are sitting at a C average( Bs for our top three centres if you are being generous).

 

[Drivesaitl]

ES TOI with Maroon:

Draisaitl 248:07
Nuge 212:33

Maroon 156 pts in 340 games = .459 pts/gm
Strome 142 points in 297 games =.478 pts/gm

Just keep digging!

What was clearly meant in that was that Draisaitl had not played with Maroon outside of the McD minutes, which you seem to infer make up the breadth of Draisaitls accomplishments. So obviously I was referring to isolated minutes (control sample, clearly you're familiar with that elemental concept) in which Drai was playing with Maroon, and not with McD. That was the context in which the statement was made. The latter sample is extremely limited.

Next, Maroon is quite clearly a late blooming player and his goal production HERE has been good. For his entire tenure here. Maroon being a player that elevated his game and goal scoring proficiency. Strome being a player that was being described as a bust and who has declined since he broke into the league.

So that its not irregular, at all, to consider Maroon a better, and more productive winger than Strome now. We both know when Strome was collecting decent points in the NHL. A long time ago.

Nor is it odd, at all, to consider that Lucic and Maroon are the best wingers on this club and that Nuge has seen more of those players collectively.

Next, its somewhat interesting that the club is entrusting Draisaitl with the Strome/Khaira assignment and has rarely put the most experienced Center, Nuge, in the position of supporting such players simultaneously. Nuge sees more of the ready to unpack game wingers in Lucic, Maroon, Pulju, that anybody could work with. Nor has Nuge ever had a prolonged assignment on this club where he hasn't had at least one other bonafide go to linemate.

In anycase is that all you respond with after my challenging your "completely invalidates" dismissive hypothesis? When you make statements like that its clearly a gauntlet thrown. When you make bold statements like that I would expect you to comprehend some burden of proof to actually substantiate your position beyond specious points.

Finally, why dodge the key question? Do you actually think Nuge is a better player than Draisaitl?

How many times do I have to ask?

I'm reasonably convinced you'll obfuscate with something else rather than actually answer that question.

So surprise me and answer the question.

 

[harpoon]

How does Nuge get a higher rating that Draisaitl in every one of the above report cards and yet drai statistically is better in every category and every year he's played hockey?

Its a fair question. My line of thinking was that if anyone had told me over the summer that RNH would have 15 goals (team lead mind you) at the half way point of the season I would have laughed and laughed and laughed. This is a player who had 18 all of last season, and thirty over the last two seasons combined. Now I acknowledge that he's getting a bit lucky. He's had some muffins go in, some fortunate bounces fall his way and a few open nets to shoot at, but I have to give him credit for finishing those up (while guys like Strome, Caggiula, Lucic are missing their easy chances) and because he's far outplayed what I expected from him this season. He's trying to be more creative when carrying the puck at the blueline when last year his go to move was dump it in. He's even hitting and winning faceoffs. This is clearly a guy who came to play this season. I'll give him an 'A' for that.

Draisaitl, I'm sorry, decided to go for the $. And fairplay to him I guess after the season he had last year. But you know as well as I do how this board works. Its all about the $, and its been that way since management handed Horcoff $5.5 million. For $8.5 million I think fans rightly expect a lot. So that is factor one for me. Factor two is the fact that he's quite a bit behind his pace of last season in all categories. And factor three is that I've seen him have a half dozen games this season where he just didn't look like he was into playing serious hockey. RNH can be invisible, I give you that, but he seldom looks like he's floating, or cheating or day dreaming. I've seen Draisaitl look like all three, especially the cheating one.

Overall I'd obviously rather have Draisaitl on my team than RNH if I could only choose one, but RNH has far exceeded my expectations thus far while Driasaitl has been a bit below.

Edit - I wouldn't waste my time arguing about points scored with McDavid. That's an obvious red herring. It reminds me of the folks who don't want to count goals scored in the last minutes of a losing game, goals scored after the team has been eliminated, goals scored against non playoff teams etc etc. Its just silly.

 

[Drivesaitl]

^My interesting point though is on one hand we have Nuge, a #1 pick, turning 25 this season, who hasn't progressed linearly since rookie season, and was highly touted vs a player that we only required a #3 pick to acquire who has quite clearly eclipsed Nuge in value, and in contractual value in a short period of time and that has worked extremely hard from year to year to get better, and better than Nuge, in only 3 seasons vs this being Nuge's 7th.

So which, really, is the player consistently earning grades and which is the player that has spent a career here not getting better? I don't think that's unfairly worded at all.

Nor do I think any student should get advanced grades this year on improvement over what was inferior performance the last years. In essence on the basis of being entirely underwhelming last season Nuge is getting primo grades this season in comparison with his subpar seasons. Why not just objective measure of performance in the grading?

Next, and I'm sure you agree, Nuge has RARELY if ever been tasked with playing simultaneously with the likes of say Strome or Khaira. Nuge has invariable always had at least one other talented winger to work with and often case more talented wingers than him in the form of Hall and Eberle.

Being that Drai was sent down his rookie year and only played 35 he has had only 3 seasons to work his game to this point. Yet he's risen to a level of being able to hold up two clearly subordinate wingers in an assignment that has not been required of the very experienced Nuge.

It is quite incredible though that theres determination on this board to attribute the Draisaitl success to McD. Really its quite incredible that Draisaitl has been able to even remain productive these last few weeks and that these comments are still occurring. (not by you)

As far as the contract, this is the first year of it, and Drai just turned 22, not even close to peak years yet and the value will be determined in his performance within that contract, which will only likely get better.

For context Nuge, who has had multiple underperforming years within his 6M year deal (which prorated to today capspace would be more like 7M if signed today) kind of negates any point about Drai performing or underperforming his contract in year one.

 

[Drivesaitl]

ps Drai is not behind the pace of last year appreciably. In fact until the shutout last night he was on pace with all totals. One needs to remember he missed 4 games this year. Prior to Winnipeg game he was 32pts in 34games which is bang on the pace of 77pts in 82gp last season. With the goals and assists both being on pace. So perspective that he's behind is somewhat odd. (my theory is its influenced by the plurality of negative comments about Drai found on this board this season) (Again not by you.)

A strong case can be made that this season Drai has been more impressive as his EV points are quite impressive. Its of course harder to obtain EV pts. So that he's getting way more of those now is in my view a positive leap. I think its reasonable to think that when we get somebody coaching the PP that has a clue the PP production will resume. Also of course the Strome/Khaira assignment was a quantum leap here and would be for any center we have to uphold that while facing top opposition. That Drai has passed that in spades is a pretty good sign.

Lastly its always far easier to perceive big players being lazy. I'll just mention that.

 

[harpoon]

^My interesting point though is on one hand we have Nuge, a #1 pick, turning 25 this season, who hasn't progressed linearly since rookie season, and was highly touted vs a player that we only required a #3 pick to acquire who has quite clearly eclipsed Nuge in value, and in contractual value in a short period of time and that has worked extremely hard from year to year to get better, and better than Nuge, in only 3 seasons vs this being Nuge's 7th.

Respectfully, I don't think that point is very interesting. Especially after I spent years on this board watching people (yourself included) crap on Jordan Eberle, a twenty second pick, who more than outperformed his draft slot and never got a lick of credit for it. The difference between one and three is not that big in some draft years and we all know that RNH wouldn't have been a FOA in a lot of other years.

Regarding the years of service, I agree. One would hope and expect a seven year player to be better and smarter than a third year player - all things being equal. They aren't equal though. RNH was in the NHL at 18 and had several of his best years wasted by inept management and coaching. Teams with no defense and no goaltending. No structure, no discipline. Its not hard to imagine that set back his development. Yes he got to play with Hall and Eberle, but c'mon man those three guys were the team. I'm sure you'll agree that Draisaitl has had a more smoothly managed transition to the NHL, or maybe you don't agree. Do you think Draisaitl would put up 70 plus points on the 2011 Oilers, or the 2013 Oilers? Another thing that isn't equal is that RNH is a scrawny kid not blessed with the sort of genetics that Draisaitl has. It matters. So you can't just say seven years vs three years and dust off your hands like the conversation is over.

Finally, regarding the bold. When have you observed progression to be linear, particularly on the Edmonton Oilers?

Nor do I think any student should get advanced grades this year on improvement over what was inferior performance the last years.

I agree with this. Its probably the strongest point in your argument. But by any metric fifteen goals to lead the team is one hell of a nice number. If you are leading the team in goals, the most important thing in a hockey game, I think you deserve a nice grade.

It is quite incredible though that theres determination on this board to attribute the Draisaitl success to McD.

I concur. Its a laughable proposition made all the more so by the fact that is being tossed out by folks who know better.

As far as the contract, this is the first year of it, and Drai just turned 22, not even close to peak years yet and the value will be determined in his performance within that contract, which will only likely get better. For context Nuge, who has had multiple underperforming years within his 6M year deal (which prorated to today capspace would be more like 7M if signed today) kind of negates any point about Drai performing or underperforming his contract in year one.

We aren't grading Draisaitl on the next six years, nor are we grading RNH on the past six. These are grades, as stipulated by op, for the first half of the 2017/18 season. I stated that over the long run I'd rather have Draisaitl and I think that would probably be virtually unanimous board consensus. Why get so worried just because RNH has out performed him over a forty game stretch? I once got a better math grade than the smart kid in my class too. I deserved it.

ps Drai is not behind the pace of last year appreciably.

Really? Goals seem down to me. Just a second, let me crunch the numbers. Last season 0.35 g/game. So far this season 0.28 g/game. Yup, that's less. Sorry that he's missed games, but no credit for that. We are two games off the halfway mark and Drai finished with 29 goals last season. He has ten thus far. He has a lot of catching up to do in the goals department if he's going to match his numbers from last season. Assists 0.56 a/game vs 0.62 a/game. I stand corrected on assists.

Let me repeat. I like Draisaitl. For me, RNH has had the more impressive first half when I consider everything. That's the fun of doing this grading thing. Everyone has different ideas. I hope I've explained myself well. I'm looking forward to reading your grades.

 

[Soundwave]

I actually do think current Leon would get 70 points on the 2011 or 2013 (well prorated since I think this is the lock out year) Oilers. He would be playing with Taylor Hall and is a better player today than he was two seasons ago when he scored 50+ with Hall in only 72 games.

Draisaitl actually had a higher draft year PPG and goals per game verus Nugent Hopkins' draft year. If he was somehow in the 2011 draft I think the Oilers take him over Nugent Hopkins. Not only better stats but bigger physically whereas the book on RNH at the time was he'd need a couple of years to fill out. We were lucky to get Drai at no.3 his draft year.

 

[Fourier]

I concur. Its a laughable proposition made all the more so by the fact that is being tossed out by folks who know better.

Since this is probably directed at me I will reply to you.

You will note that the I never made this claim. And for the record:

1) I have been a big supporter of Draisaitl's going back to when he first played with Rieder on the German National Junior Team.
2) I most certainly do not think he is a product of McDavid
3) If I had to choose between Nuge and Leon I choose Leon.

The narrative you are criticizing was entirely made up as a way to deflect from the fact that the poster you quoted could not defend his obviously false statements. Read the post I quoted that began this conversation. In this post was a continuation of an ongoing narrative that Leon has been saddled with plugs and scores despite this while Nuge gets prime linemates who prop up his numbers.

From Dec 16th:

Considering that Gagners linemates at the time were Omark and Paajarvi it wasn't at all an incomprehensible stance or een a reach. Gagner would be the prime example of a player the Oilers diminished.

You can manufacture a hate on for Hopkins if you want. He's had primo assignments his entire career here and continues pretty much today.

Ask yourself why the 7year vet Center is getting the help of two Vet Wingers and the 21 year old Center is working with a rookie and Lucic, and Drai is working with a bust and a Sophomore.

In anycase the topic of the thread is Maroon. A player that brings a lot of intangibles in addition to his scoring and ability to give and go and work the cycle. Maroon is an inate big body for the cycle. He fits right into Draisaitl, or McD's game, but he's with Nuge, because Oilers.

Now it seems that Lucic is a stud and the rookie is now on Nuge's line to carry him. And by the way that other veteran winger was Mike Cammalleri.

Its standard operating procedure. And it seems it is effective.

 

[LTIR]

Lucic getting an A is a headscracther. At this point I wouldnt even give McDavid an A.

for me Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, Draisaitl all get a C
Klefbom, Benning, Maroon, Strome get an F

McD, Nurse, Puljujarvi and RNH get a B

 

[LTIR]

Drai and McDavid are getting their points but both have been underwhelming to say the least.

 

[ujju2]

I like Draisaitl for sure, but I don't see the case for saying he had a better 1st half than RNH. In fact, I don't really think anyone on this team, with the possible exception of McDavid, had a better 1st half than Nuge did.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

Feral Pine Marten aka Nugey gets an A+.

McDavid A

Nurse A-

Participation medals to the rest!

 

[GreeningOil]

An F all around. My expectations were at minimum making the playoffs and my closest sniff was Gary Bettman 0.500 before Christmas. No one passes when the team is as bad at it was during the decade of darkness

 

[Aerchon]

Based off my expectations for this year, taking injury into account, thier expected role/quality of competition, linemates, cap implications, taking team success into account.

A is exceeded all expectations and then some.

B is at expectations.

C is below expectations but acceptable.

D is not acceptable.

E is get them off the team asap. Minors, traded, whatever it takes.


A: no one.

RNH B+, Nurse B+, Lucic B, Kharia B, Jessie B, Larsson B, Davidson B, Maroon B-, Strome B-, GM/management B-.

McDavid C+, Leon C+, Gryba C+, Benning C, Kassian C, Sekera C, Slepy C, Russell C, Auvitu C, Coaching C-, Yamamoto C-, Cammalleri C-, Caguillia C-, Jokinen C-, Letestu C-.

Talbot D+, Klefbom D, AHL team D.

L.B. = F.

Goaltending has cost us the most games no question in my mind.

Defense has been suspect with Klefbom single handedly costing the team some losses.

Forwards overall have been good imo although that scoring drought to start the year was pretty terrible as well. McDavid and Leon need to be better, points don't mean much to me they need to be better two way to help the team win. Everyone with a C or worse grade needs to be better imo.

 

[oobga]

A+ - Nurse, Pulju for both hitting another level and becoming useful players, although one doesn't speak English well enough to be allowed to 1-time shots on the PP.
A - McDavid for being McDavid
B - Drai, Nuge, Russell (not the biggest Russell fan, but he has been bringing it this year, playing better than I expected), Davidson
C - Maroon, Lucic, Larsson, Strome, Jujhar Hockey, Letestu (he is what he is, I don't expect him to be a PP dynamo like Woodcroft can't let go of), Cammalleri, Auvitu, Caggiula
D - Talbot, Klef (although may be playing with a bad injury), Benning, Gryba, LB
F - McLellan, Woodcroft, PK coach guy
G - Chia's Summer work
H - Chia's beard
I - Chia's glasses
J - Chia's grin
K - Chia

 

[Stoneman89]

ps Drai is not behind the pace of last year appreciably. In fact until the shutout last night he was on pace with all totals. One needs to remember he missed 4 games this year. Prior to Winnipeg game he was 32pts in 34games which is bang on the pace of 77pts in 82gp last season. With the goals and assists both being on pace. So perspective that he's behind is somewhat odd. (my theory is its influenced by the plurality of negative comments about Drai found on this board this season) (Again not by you.)

A strong case can be made that this season Drai has been more impressive as his EV points are quite impressive. Its of course harder to obtain EV pts. So that he's getting way more of those now is in my view a positive leap. I think its reasonable to think that when we get somebody coaching the PP that has a clue the PP production will resume. Also of course the Strome/Khaira assignment was a quantum leap here and would be for any center we have to uphold that while facing top opposition. That Drai has passed that in spades is a pretty good sign.

Lastly its always far easier to perceive big players being lazy. I'll just mention that.

Has to be the wingers he's playing with helping his game.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Since this is probably directed at me I will reply to you.

You will note that the I never made this claim. And for the record:

1) I have been a big supporter of Draisaitl's going back to when he first played with Rieder on the German National Junior Team.
2) I most certainly do not think he is a product of McDavid
3) If I had to choose between Nuge and Leon I choose Leon.

The narrative you are criticizing was entirely made up as a way to deflect from the fact that the poster you quoted could not defend his obviously false statements. Read the post I quoted that began this conversation. In this post was a continuation of an ongoing narrative that Leon has been saddled with plugs and scores despite this while Nuge gets prime linemates who prop up his numbers.

From Dec 16th:



Now it seems that Lucic is a stud and the rookie is now on Nuge's line to carry him. And by the way that other veteran winger was Mike Cammalleri.

Its standard operating procedure. And it seems it is effective.

What on Earth do posts I made a month ago have to do with the present discussion? Lets be clear here, nothing I stated in this thread was unreasonable and nothing you rebuked with was "completely invalidating" and you know that. There was no "obvious falsehood" stated by me in this thread.

Obviously the biggest mystery in this latest series of posts with you is how you now state the bolded but took a statistical look at how many of Draisaitls points were with McDavid in your first reply. Why bring those wowy states into the discussion and frame them the way you did unless you were attempting some demonstration of a McDavid dependency? Given that post was unclear from the start I'm still left wondering what your attempt was. Especially now since you are entirely refuting any notion of Drai being McDavid dependent.

In anycase noting wowy points per player played with , and then listing who has had more pts with various players is not really telling too much of a story imo. and not a complete story. I think you could be reading something into it but again I didn't follow how your post "completely invalidated" anything. If you look at it retroactively I think you would have preferred different wording there. More burden of proof is required to "completely invalidate" and if you're being fair, I'm sure you agree.

That's the last I'll state on this. back to the thread.