I support analytics and advanced stats. They are helpgul in many areas. However in a dynamic game like hockey with so many variables in the way its played, in the dynamics of the team and the dynamic of the players themselves, there is not single model that can accurately predict a result id be comfortable with.
I agree that there is luck, and outleir on ice s% can regress, and I also agree that injuries play a big role (which is why I am high on the Sens next year). I disagree with some aspects of this article.
First for the Oilers, it doesnt take into account subjective data such as injuries players played with during the season and how that can affect them. Such as RNH and Eberle. I firmyl believe their offensive output was largely effected by respective injuries this year. To what degree they will bounce back is pure speculation, but a point to be taken into account.
Second is development of players. A young team such as the Leafs and Oilers will have their players progress year over year. Much more so than older teams. By that own merit, these teams will get better. Kadri,Gardiner,Kessel,JVR,Hall,RNH,Eberle, Schultz etc are all another year better. History shows that players can progress leaps and bounds in their prime development years. See Stamkos and other young elite talents. This model only seems to take a snap shot of the current stage of the players, but doesnt factor in their growth.
Lastly is the offseason moves made. I wont try to go full homer and pump my GMs tires because he didnt have some miraculous offseason, but he did address some key issues, many of which prevalent in Vollmans model. MacT has stated he uses advanced stats to make decisions, they are not the sole resource used. But when he makes move he takes possession #'s and shot differentials into account. His acquisition of Perron was made to address possession numbers and well as shot differentials as he is a player with good possession numbers in STL (upgrade over MPS). Ference is a an addition to play a shut down game and prevent chances against (upgrade over N. Schultz). Jonessu can play a two way game to and should also help with possession and shot differentials, so should Gordon (upgrades over Horcoff and Smyth). His model uses the stats of Horcoff, Smyth, Potter, Whitney, Belanger, Fistric, MPS versus the upgrades in Perron, Ference, Gordon, Belov, Larsen, Klefbom, Jonessu etc.
He also brought in puck moving D for the bottom pairing. Grebsekov, Belov, Larsen and Klefbom can all move the puck very well and should help with possession numbers. Gone are the days of bottom pairing face punchers who cant move the puck. The better you can move the puck to the Oiler forwards, the more chances your getting.
These moves were made to address shot differntials and possession #s, if Vollman is simply using 2013 stats, then these improvements wont show up in the rankings
Tl;DR I think the Oilers improved in the advanced catorgories. These stats dont show the development of either the Leafs or Oilers. I have the Oilers fighting for the playoffs next year and the Leafs regressing a touch but still making it