Oilers, Leafs, Flames near the bottom, Sens near the top - Analytics report

[Tuggy]

Good thing luck has nothing to do with playing sports.

Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.

 

[Subbanned]

You realize the reason people use advanced stats is to limit the faults of human observation as much as possible, right? The argument your making is that a single non-expert observer (you) has done such a good job of viewing every single Leafs play of the past x number of games that this single non-expert observer provides better analysis of the games than indicators (shots and percentages) collected from every game by multiple people who are paid to do so.

Did you watch every second of the game intently? Did you never stop to talk to your buddy, eat some food, or drink some beer? Were you 100% sober for all of the games? Did you never let your mind wander to any other topic? Did you always follow the puck from end-to-end without watching what was happening on the bench or in the crowd? Did you keep track of the number of shots off the rush vs the number of dump-ins, or was it just a "feeling" you got from watching the games? Were you entirely unemotional while watching? Did you track the distance of each shot from the net?

Because those are just a chunk of the human factors that lead to faulty, garbage analysis of sports, especially fast-moving ones like hockey, and the reason that some people prefer numbers that, while imperfect, are better than a single non-expert observer (or a single observer of any kind).

In conclusion: hurr durr.

Haha that was cute, but this has nothing to do with my person game-watching routines nor any nonexistent implications that my statements are based on emotion. If it were, it would sway to dismiss the Leafs success as I want anything but for them to succeed.

This is per professional coaches, scouts, and executives that DO watch, re-watch, and analyze every second of game in conjunction with statistical support to conclude that the Leafs capitalized off the rush. All this information can be found in the recent Summer Interview series on Maple Leafs Hot Stove, which has an uncanny ability to get better and more pointed interviews with hockey staff then I've seen in any main media outlet or internet source league-wide.

In conclusion: nice try, thanks for coming out.

 

[Poignant Discussion*]

They do. They tend to defy averages based on providing a superior shot differential.

In terms of percentages, I don't have any citations on-hand, but there has been a strong correlation found between shot attempts (Fenwick, Corsi) and scoring chances, and there is very obviously a strong correlation between scoring chances and goals.

So yes, as an earlier poster said, goals determine the winner. However, goals are variable based to a notable degree on luck (not majority, but notable) and thus very difficult to predict. The ability to outshoot, however, is based substantially less on luck and thus easier to predict. Just because a team outshoots does not mean it will outscore and thus win, but long term it is the best way to analyze hockey. It's certainly better than "lol but this guy hits hard and scares other guys" or "look at the heart this team plays with".

Isn't there a section for this?

I don't go into that section because I'm not interested in advanced stats crap. This isn't baseball

 

[WarriorofTime]

Good thing luck has nothing to do with playing sports.

How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.

I'm pretty sure that comment deserved a

Either way, of course luck has something to do with the game. That said, a team that "statistically" had tonnes of luck, is not necessarily going to repeat. While a team that had minimal luck "statistically" is more likely going to at least stay in a similar position.

 

[Puckschmuck*]

The Leafs prediction makes me particularly gleeful.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I'll eat my sock if it happens.

 

[BlueDream]

And fans of those three teams are mad, what a shock.

 

[jack mullet]

Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.

luck is an excuse used by those who lose

 

[htpwn]

How, exactly, does one take last season's results and use them to predict how teams will perform the next year?

Different Season, Different Teams, Different Training Regiments in the Off-Season, Different Schedule, Different Divisions.

The base variables have changed to such a drastic effect that I can't see how it would be effective.

 

[Wheatking]

Makes sense really. The Oilers were not hard to play against last year and outside of Hall, didn't create much. Not sure how they've changed their roster much, Perron should help, so I can see where these numbers come from.

RNH being healthy should lead to some improvement. Eberle is a good player but IMO he's the complimentary player in that pairing. RNH gets going and suddenly Eberle is scoring a lot more goals.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I'll eat my sock if it happens.

You'll eat your sock if the Oilers, Flames, Leafs are near the bottom and Sens near the top? I mean, I don't think it'll happen either, but it's not that crazy.

 

[Warden of the North]

Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.

How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.

I guess I should have put the in the post.

Its absurd to leave out luck in hockey, which is exactly what Vollman tried to do.

 

[KingKopitar11*]

Lol this guy is an idiot. It always turns out to be the opposite when "analysts" make an "analysis".

 

[Ishdul]

I guess I should have put the in the post.

Its absurd to leave out luck in hockey, which is exactly what Vollman tried to do.

Again, he isn't trying to leave out luck, he's making the likeliest projection according to his model. Predicting which star player is going to tear his ACL because he skates over a rut in the ice during preseason is not a fruitful venture and it is asinine to do so. It's like saying that a poker player is leaving luck out when calculating the odds that Ace-King suited will beat a pair of Fives.

 

[The Hockey Life]

"Analysis" had Leafs finishing 12th in the East last year..

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

"Analysis" had Leafs finishing 12th in the East last year..

How does that negate the reasonableness of the prediction?

Because of the randomness that inheres in an 82 game sample, the best team in the league (with respect to underlying talent) could miss the playoffs in any particular year.

If that happens, does that mean that the person who predicted the team to finish first is a fool?

Of course not.

The fool is the person who fails to understand that there is an imperfect correspondence between talent and results.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Precisely.

Related - folks who didn't use analysis made a lot of predictions last year that turned out to be silly. Is that a mandate to use analysis? No. And neither is this a reason to toss it all out.

 

[Ishdul]

How does that negate the reasonableness of the prediction?

Because of the randomness that inheres in an 82 game sample, the best team in the league (with respect to underlying talent) could miss the playoffs in any particular year.

If that happens, does that mean that the person who predicted the team to finish first is a fool?

Of course not.

The fool is the person who fails to understand that there is an imperfect correspondence between talent and results.

And of course, it wasn't an 82 game season we had, it was 48 games which meant even more variance in the results.

 

[Lacaar]

RNH being healthy should lead to some improvement. Eberle is a good player but IMO he's the complimentary player in that pairing. RNH gets going and suddenly Eberle is scoring a lot more goals.

Really the one thing I think I can take from this is that yes perhaps the Oilers may have been the worst team last year. Doesn't mean they'll be the worst team this year though perhaps likely though. If we just based the next years standings off of last years performances nothing would really ever change.

 

[saskganesh]

How, exactly, does one take last season's results and use them to predict how teams will perform the next year?

Different Season, Different Teams, Different Training Regiments in the Off-Season, Different Schedule, Different Divisions.

The base variables have changed to such a drastic effect that I can't see how it would be effective.

Almost 24 hrs later from your post, I'd also like to know.

 

[Ishdul]

Really the one thing I think I can take from this is that yes perhaps the Oilers may have been the worst team last year. Doesn't mean they'll be the worst team this year though perhaps likely though. If we just based the next years standings off of last years performances nothing would really ever change.

Given that the rankings have the Senators at a 1 in 3 shot of winning the President's Trophy we can make a reasonable guess that they're projecting some change.

 

[TieClark]

Analytics suggest the 29th overall Leafs team was far better than last years Leaf team.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Analytics suggest the 29th overall Leafs team was far better than last years Leaf team.

Please elaborate.

 

[TieClark]

Please elaborate.

The Leafs Fenwick from the year they finished 29th overall would be far better than last year despite last years team clearly being a lot better than the 29th placed team.