That's exactly it. This team has never been more than a fringe playoff team, this 11-2 stretch which quite frankly involved some luck and unsustainably good goaltending might have given some the false sense of security that they are a contender of any kind.
The reality is that the Oilers are in that meaty curve of 3rd tier teams in this league (I consider teams like the Leafs and Jets to be 2nd tier), teams that are sitting on the playoff bubble like the Habs, Flames and probably Canucks who are better than their record indicates (roughly 10-18 leaguewide). I've said all along that this upcoming offseason is the one to piece together a real contender.
This is a bridge season towards bigger and better things in future seasons. If they win a playoff round this season even in the mediocre North, consider it gravy. Team just doesn't have the horses to do much in the playoffs.
As far as Bear and Bouchard are concerned, there's another problem with the lineup.
You have Nurse, a very flawed Barrie and Larsson then a bunch of kids. There's some quality in there but the defense is just too young and dependent on guys like Barrie who are ill equipped to play tough matchups game in and game out. Then you have up front with a bunch of top 6 wingers who aren't carrying their weight, lots of youth there too or players who aren't true top 6 guys or a guy who disappears for 10 games at a time and wants upwards of $7M long term.