Post-Game Talk: Oilers @ Jets • Wed Sep 24 • 7PM • MTS Centre • "Attack of the Prospects"

[truck]

BTW that isn't accurate .

32 points wasn't the highest total for a third liner last year. Of course I think you know that and chose to phrase it the way you did.

It is 100% accurate. The 181st highest scoring forward put up 32 points. The 270th highest scoring forward put up 20 points.

Those are the league average parameters for a 3rd line.

There will be 3rd liners that score more, but there will also be second liners that score less.

 

[garret9]

FWIW, I said I think he could easily do 10 and 10, which is normal 3rd line scoring. I also said 15 and 15 isn't out of line. 15 and 15 is usually at the top end of 3rd liners, who don't get powerplay time.

Being plus everywhere is nice, but that isn't always an option.

9th in forward scoring last year:
Chicago - Ben Smith, 26 points.
LA - Gaborik, 16 points.
Boston - Gregory Campbell, 21 points.

I believe zero teams had 9 players with 30 points.

That works

Although I think the most accurate way would be to use pts per 60 rates relative 3rd liners and adjust for on ice sh%....

I wonder if anyone can do that.

 

[jetkarma*]

It is 100% accurate. The 181st highest scoring forward put up 32 points. The 270th highest scoring forward put up 20 points.

Those are the league average parameters for a 3rd line.

There will be 3rd liners that score more, but there will also be second liners that score less.

That wasn't the statement.

What I said is accurate.

 

[jetkarma*]

FWIW, I said I think he could easily do 10 and 10, which is normal 3rd line scoring. I also said 15 and 15 isn't out of line. 15 and 15 is usually at the top end of 3rd liners, who don't get powerplay time.

Being plus everywhere is nice, but that isn't always an option.

9th in forward scoring last year:
Chicago - Ben Smith, 26 points.
LA - Gaborik, 16 points.
Boston - Gregory Campbell, 21 points.

I believe zero teams had 9 players with 30 points.

His forte would be as a point producer, 10 and 10 would be disappointing production imo for the anticipated minutes our third line should get .

What is it for the 7 players with 20 points?

You think O'Dell would be our best option if we wanted to be plus at that position? What about next year? Not carved in stone but Scheifele with Kane and Ehlers , Little with Ladd and Wheeler and Frolik with Perreault , Buff , Petan , Burmistrov .

I hope he becomes a good third liner , he'd have to be much better than 10 and 10 to become that , he isn't strong enough in other areas to think that would be a level to be happy with ,imo.

 

[garret9]

O'Dell's point production exceeded typical of his TOI and deployment.
I really wouldn't realistically expect more, although more is possible with high on ice percentages.


In other words, I would t count his NHL point production against him.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I look at numbers like that differently than some , maybe most.

I am not going down some list and making lines at 30 , 60 , 90 etc.

In this regard I want and will expect the Jets third liners to score not at the bottom of the grouping but the mid to top level. The Jets want three scoring lines , 10 and 10 doesn't work for me or their desire either. I have said this many times , my thoughts on building a team is you get plus players at every position , or as many positions as you can. The other aspect is , take Lowry as an example , he may not ever score at a plus level for the spot he will have but he provides plus attributes besides scoring. Obviously his elite size , his physicality and willingness to provide that consistently , thinks the game better and will be better defensively. So if he ends up being only "ok" offensively that won't negate that he could be a plus player. If O'Dell doesn't score at a plus pace I don't see him adding in other areas to overide that , I may be wrong of course.

You can continue to blast the Jets , I don't expect you to stop , but the areas you can are getting less and less . Your Kane comment is totally out of line , but keep at it if you wish , more and more posters are starting to see that there indeed is and was a plan and vision , some have for a while of course, but there always will be those that want to hang on to things to try and prove they were right and the Jets management was wrong.

Yes Kane has no hockey sense. Keep trying desperately to see it if you want but it's not there you are forcing it. He has UNREAL natural talent. His shot and skating are elite level. However he consistently struggles to see the ice, consistently struggles to find the soft areas of the ice, consistently struggles to find the right play in the offensive zone. It's why he is one of the worst players on the Jets on PP. There's like 5 players in the world that can create as much as him off the rush 5v5 but he hugely struggles in the cycle and PP game. That's how it goes. Hockey IQ doesn't develop. If you really want to force it keep trying to justify your opinion but it's not there.

BTW LOL where have I said I want the Jets to score at the bottom of grouping? Ridiculous. I think O'Dell is good for way better than 10-10 personnally. However my point was people expecting 40 points from a 3rd line role is absolutely ridiculous. The best "3rd" line forward (181st forward, ie best 3rd liner based on stats) scored only 32 points. 15-15 would be a really solid season from a guy like O'Dell on the 3rd line. That's a realistic and attainable goal. Why is that something to be degraded? Plugs like Peluso can only dream of seasons like that but I don't see you attacking them?

Jokinen had 43 points last year and was our third line centre. Not sure I follow
what your saying. Plenty of guys have more than 30 points playing on the third
line of teams. In Washington Ward and Chimera both had more than 40 points on the third line. For example a very good third line is Eakin 35 points, Garbutt 32 points
and Roussel 29 points in Dallas. Maybe that's why they made the playoffs and
we didn't. They got points from the third line.

The 181st forward in the league (ie the best 3rd liner) put up 32 points. Those are simply facts. Yes some teams might have more depth than others, etc, but in terms of reality if you break it down by points the very best "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. So expecting more than 25-30 points from a 3rd liner is hugely unrealistic expectations.

BTW that isn't accurate .

32 points wasn't the highest total for a third liner last year. Of course I think you know that and chose to phrase it the way you did.

That wasn't the statement.

What I said is accurate.

I have no idea what you are talking about. I said the highest "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. Completely 100% accurate. That was the statement and you are just making nothing posts trying to discredit what I am saying. In this case I am posting straight facts which you don't like. Too bad. Those are the facts.

 

[KingBogo]

How many 4th line wingers do you expect to come into the organization next year? Or do you mean overall in the long term?

I think odell will be on the team this season, likely on the 3rd line but be supplanted in coming seasons by more skilled guys like Ehlers or Petan. IMO Galiardi and Halischuck we be supplanted in coming years by other prospects in the system better suited to a 4th line role (Lowry, Lipon etc). IMO guys like Halischuck and Galiardi are picked from other organizations to fill bottom roster holes you can't fill internally. The Jets roster pool is starting to get deep enough that there will soon be a lot of internal competition, and we will no longer have to go searching for other organizations cast offs to fill holes. At least I hope that's the case.

 

[KingBogo]

Given the players they would replace, I think you are wrong.

I think the Jets have left themselves open for 1 or 2 rookies to make the roster this season. This is a comfortable amount and a good replacement rate. An influx of rookies beyond that is usually a bow to the future where you are willing to sacrifice the present for the future. No matter how good your prospects are, if your roster is laden with rookies its very tough to compete over an 82 game schedule. Ask Sabre fans. Few teams have the young riches they do, but they are widely expected to be at the bottom of the league. They just won't be able to compete night after night no matter what the talent level is of their kids. IMO this would be amplified for the Jets in the Central division, where we are competing nightly against such strong teams that are made up of highly skilled players in their primes.

 

[Whileee]

Yes Kane has no hockey sense. Keep trying desperately to see it if you want but it's not there you are forcing it. He has UNREAL natural talent. His shot and skating are elite level. However he consistently struggles to see the ice, consistently struggles to find the soft areas of the ice, consistently struggles to find the right play in the offensive zone. It's why he is one of the worst players on the Jets on PP. There's like 5 players in the world that can create as much as him off the rush 5v5 but he hugely struggles in the cycle and PP game. That's how it goes. Hockey IQ doesn't develop. If you really want to force it keep trying to justify your opinion but it's not there.

BTW LOL where have I said I want the Jets to score at the bottom of grouping? Ridiculous. I think O'Dell is good for way better than 10-10 personnally. However my point was people expecting 40 points from a 3rd line role is absolutely ridiculous. The best "3rd" line forward (181st forward, ie best 3rd liner based on stats) scored only 32 points. 15-15 would be a really solid season from a guy like O'Dell on the 3rd line. That's a realistic and attainable goal. Why is that something to be degraded? Plugs like Peluso can only dream of seasons like that but I don't see you attacking them?

The 181st forward in the league (ie the best 3rd liner) put up 32 points. Those are simply facts. Yes some teams might have more depth than others, etc, but in terms of reality if you break it down by points the very best "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. So expecting more than 25-30 points from a 3rd liner is hugely unrealistic expectations.

I have no idea what you are talking about. I said the highest "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. Completely 100% accurate. That was the statement and you are just making nothing posts trying to discredit what I am saying. In this case I am posting straight facts which you don't like. Too bad. Those are the facts.

...then the Jets are obviously one of the teams with more depth because they will likely start 8 forwards who had 40+ points last year. I don't think it's "hugely unrealistic" to expect 3rd liners like Perreault or Buff or even Frolik to score more than 25-30 points.

You don't have to have "blind faith" to assess that the Jets are in better shape this year than they were 3 or 4 years ago. I suppose that whether or not you think this was by design or blind luck or a bit of both is a matter of taste. But the team has more quality depth than it did when it arrived, has added a few very good NHLers, and still retains the same core. They could have pursued a "draft and develop" strategy more wholeheartedly, but saying that they have no plan is a bit harsh.

 

[Aavco Cup]

This team scores enough to make the playoffs. What will determine their playoff fate is whether or not they can reduce the goals against.

better goaltending
better zone exits
less penalties
better endurance at the end of the game (lead protection)

Maurice needs to get improvements in these areas.

 

[truck]

His forte would be as a point producer, 10 and 10 would be disappointing production imo for the anticipated minutes our third line should get .

What is it for the 7 players with 20 points?

You think O'Dell would be our best option if we wanted to be plus at that position? What about next year? Not carved in stone but Scheifele with Kane and Ehlers , Little with Ladd and Wheeler and Frolik with Perreault , Buff , Petan , Burmistrov .

I hope he becomes a good third liner , he'd have to be much better than 10 and 10 to become that , he isn't strong enough in other areas to think that would be a level to be happy with ,imo.

Not sure what you mean by the bolded and I really have, no clue what you are debating at this point.

Why are you stuck on 20?

I said 20 points should come easy.
I said 30 points should be reasonable.

20-30 points is normal 3rd line production.

I get that you want more, but it simply isn't realistic to expect more than 30 points from a 3rd like forward that isn't getting powerplay ice. Zero teams got 30 points put of their 9th forward last year. Zero. A few were close. Winnipeg and Dallas among them, but many playoffs teams were not.

20-30 points out a third line player is what a team should expect. Whether or not he will be supplanted btly Petan or Ehlers is a whole different matter.

 

[Grind]

Not sure what you mean by the bolded and I really have, no clue what you are debating at this point.

Why are you stuck on 20?

I said 20 points should come easy.
I said 30 points should be reasonable.

20-30 points is normal 3rd line production.

I get that you want more, but it simply isn't realistic to expect more than 30 points from a 3rd like forward that isn't getting powerplay ice. Zero teams got 30 points put of their 9th forward last year. Zero. A few were close. Winnipeg and Dallas among them, but many playoffs teams were not.

20-30 points out a third line player is what a team should expect. Whether or not he will be supplanted btly Petan or Ehlers is a whole different matter.

I think this is the issue.

I don't think some recogonize how many points high scoring "third liners" get due to power play ice time.

Given that it's highly unlikely the subject in question is going to get power play time.

 

[Grind]

...then the Jets are obviously one of the teams with more depth because they will likely start 8 forwards who had 40+ points last year. I don't think it's "hugely unrealistic" to expect 3rd liners like Perreault or Buff or even Frolik to score more than 25-30 points.

You don't have to have "blind faith" to assess that the Jets are in better shape this year than they were 3 or 4 years ago. I suppose that whether or not you think this was by design or blind luck or a bit of both is a matter of taste. But the team has more quality depth than it did when it arrived, has added a few very good NHLers, and still retains the same core. They could have pursued a "draft and develop" strategy more wholeheartedly, but saying that they have no plan is a bit harsh.

we are?

by my count,

kane
ladd
littl
wheeler
Frolik
Perrault


If you include buff you get 7, but i don't think Buff was on a 40+ point pace as a forward.

if a third liner gets 40+ points you can garauntee he's on a power play unit, quite possibly the first.

 

[scelaton]

Yes Kane has no hockey sense. Keep trying desperately to see it if you want but it's not there you are forcing it. He has UNREAL natural talent. His shot and skating are elite level. However he consistently struggles to see the ice......

.
Yes.....

........
The 181st forward in the league (ie the best 3rd liner) put up 32 points. Those are simply facts. Yes some teams might have more depth than others, etc, but in terms of reality if you break it down by points the very best "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. So expecting more than 25-30 points from a 3rd liner is hugely unrealistic expectations.

I have no idea what you are talking about. I said the highest "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. Completely 100% accurate. That was the statement and you are just making nothing posts trying to discredit what I am saying. In this case I am posting straight facts which you don't like. Too bad. Those are the facts.

Yes...back to hockey, and the facts.

 

[CaptainChef]

Yes Kane has no hockey sense. Keep trying desperately to see it if you want but it's not there you are forcing it. He has UNREAL natural talent. His shot and skating are elite level. However he consistently struggles to see the ice, consistently struggles to find the soft areas of the ice, consistently struggles to find the right play in the offensive zone. It's why he is one of the worst players on the Jets on PP. There's like 5 players in the world that can create as much as him off the rush 5v5 but he hugely struggles in the cycle and PP game. That's how it goes. Hockey IQ doesn't develop. If you really want to force it keep trying to justify your opinion but it's not there.
.

I'm with you on Kane - very little hockey sense. When you see prospects coming up who have that sense and compare to Kane there is just no comparison. Can that sense develop now for Kane, I doubt it. So, we're left with a guy with tons of talent but unable to really play any system. He definitely is a liability on the PP, and really should not be used there. Lets hope he develops playing with Scheif & Wheels this year because if he has another so-so year, I'll be hoping he's one of the first guys out of here.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I disagree that he has no hockey sense. He has a lot of hockey sense. He knows when to go and where to go to get the puck. Hell his breakaway in the game is a clear indication he has a ton of hockey sense

His problem like a lot of players similar to him(say Taylor Hall), is that when the game slows down he does not look good. I think that is why he has trouble on the PP and is decenet PKer. His brain is thinking so quickly that other players are not on the same level and when he has to slow down his thought process he makes wrong decisions.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I disagree that he has no hockey sense. He has a lot of hockey sense. He knows when to go and where to go to get the puck. Hell his breakaway in the game is a clear indication he has a ton of hockey sense

His problem like a lot of players similar to him(say Taylor Hall), is that when the game slows down he does not look good. I think that is why he has trouble on the PP and is decenet PKer. His brain is thinking so quickly that other players are not on the same level and when he has to slow down his thought process he makes wrong decisions.

No hockey sense is harse. No alot though.

The biggest thing for me with regards to hockey sense is finding the soft areas of the ice, particularly in the offensive zone. Kane has no idea how to that. Watch a guy like Iginla, Moulson, or Stamkos find those soft areas of the ice. That's hockey IQ. Always taking off out of the d-zone isn't hockey IQ in my book.

I disagree with your conclusion from that same facts. I do agree that Kane works best at frantic paces. That's cause the game at frantic paces is just skate up and down straight north south and pour everything on net. I mean really there's nothing wrong with that per se, however it requires little to no thinking. That's where he excels. However when vision and thinking are involved in the east west game or making creative plays he is pretty much useless. Same data points, but in my opinion that indicates almost no hockey sense not more. If he had this hockey sense he would be able to think the game east-west and in the cycle game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The 181st forward in the league (ie the best 3rd liner) put up 32 points. Those are simply facts. Yes some teams might have more depth than others, etc, but in terms of reality if you break it down by points the very best "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. So expecting more than 25-30 points from a 3rd liner is hugely unrealistic expectations.

Holden, I am on your side in this debate but I think the above is a misstatement of the facts. If all the talent was evenly distributed across the league then the 3rd lines would be made up of the 90 players ranking 181-270 and your statement would be correct. But the talent is not evenly distributed. If we were to take the time to compile a list of the actual 3rd liners we would probably see the top scorers at ~45-50 points and the bottom ones at ~12-15. The top ones would rank above 180 and the bottom ones below 270. I would also guess that there would be more 3rd liners nearer to the bottom of that list than the top with an average at ~25. Those numbers are right off the top of my head. I don't have the time or sufficient interest to compile such a list but I think the concept is good enough for the purposes of this discussion which is just to decide what a reasonable standard of expectation would be. I would be a little disappointed if O'Dell couldn't do better than 10 & 10. I think 25-30 points is a realistic expectation which would be average to above average production. Considering his probable linemates I don't think 35 points would be out of sight though maybe a little optimistic.

Whoever gets the 3rd line spot is essentially replacing Setoguchi who had 11G, 27 pts largely playing 2nd line. I would be entirely satisfied if the replacement matched that scoring playing 3rd line and being better than Seto at other aspects of the game. I think O'Dell is one of 4 possibles who would likely achieve that. There are 2 other candidates who probably would not score that much but might bring other attributes that makes some people here consider them good candidates. Limiting it just to those 4 I don't think we have seen enough yet to make the choice. All 4 are still in the running for me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets have left themselves open for 1 or 2 rookies to make the roster this season. This is a comfortable amount and a good replacement rate. An influx of rookies beyond that is usually a bow to the future where you are willing to sacrifice the present for the future. No matter how good your prospects are, if your roster is laden with rookies its very tough to compete over an 82 game schedule. Ask Sabre fans. Few teams have the young riches they do, but they are widely expected to be at the bottom of the league. They just won't be able to compete night after night no matter what the talent level is of their kids. IMO this would be amplified for the Jets in the Central division, where we are competing nightly against such strong teams that are made up of highly skilled players in their primes.

If it is done as PM has indicated, that is rookies are kept because they 'won' the jobs then the team should be better overall not worse. That is in spite of the usual rookie mistakes. Their good plays outweigh those mistakes. That is not necessarily the same as the deliberate youth movement of Buffalo. The 4 rookies who have a chance of sticking SHOULD all improve the team. If Lowry does not improve the 4th line why would he be kept? If Ehlers does not improve the top 9 why would he be kept? The same applies to both Morrissey and Petan. If they are not upgrades on the players they replace on the roster they should be sent back to jr to develop further. Even if all 4 of those start the season with the Jets the team has enough solid veterans that the rookie mistakes should be absorbed with minimal damage. At least that would be the hope.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we are?

by my count,

kane
ladd
littl
wheeler
Frolik
Perrault


If you include buff you get 7, but i don't think Buff was on a 40+ point pace as a forward.

if a third liner gets 40+ points you can garauntee he's on a power play unit, quite possibly the first.

I think you have to include Buff. He will still get his PP time. If you don't want to count it because he is playing point on the PP then don't count anyone's PP production. If Buff doesn't score 40+ then the Buff at wing move has failed, quite badly I would think. That makes 7. If we assume Scheifele exceeds 40 then we have 8. If we have 8 forwards exceeding 40 points and the 9th gets 30 we have a very deep, balanced offense!

 

[jetkarma*]

?



The 181st forward in the league (ie the best 3rd liner) put up 32 points. Those are simply facts. Yes some teams might have more depth than others, etc, but in terms of reality if you break it down by points the very best "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. So expecting more than 25-30 points from a 3rd liner is hugely unrealistic expectations.





I have no idea what you are talking about. I said the highest "3rd" liner (ie the 181st forward) had 32 points. Completely 100% accurate. That was the statement and you are just making nothing posts trying to discredit what I am saying. In this case I am posting straight facts which you don't like. Too bad. Those are the facts.

"Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
You do realize that 32 pts was the HIGHEST for a "3rd" liner last year right "

This is the quote that is not accurate.

Of course there were third liners that scored more than 32 points , I think people using numbers or facts to back their opinions and proclamations should be accurate and not try to present something and then try to sneak something inaccurate in to validate their stance.

Just clearing up that indeed the highest scoring third liner had more than 32 points , many did.

 

[CaptainChef]

OK guys - give it up already! What does it really matter if 32 points was the absolute tops for 3rd liners last year or if one or two may have got a couple more points. Suffice it to say that true third liners rarely get more than 35 points and leave it at that

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No hockey sense is harse. No alot though.

The biggest thing for me with regards to hockey sense is finding the soft areas of the ice, particularly in the offensive zone. Kane has no idea how to that. Watch a guy like Iginla, Moulson, or Stamkos find those soft areas of the ice. That's hockey IQ. Always taking off out of the d-zone isn't hockey IQ in my book.

I disagree with your conclusion from that same facts. I do agree that Kane works best at frantic paces. That's cause the game at frantic paces is just skate up and down straight north south and pour everything on net. I mean really there's nothing wrong with that per se, however it requires little to no thinking. That's where he excels. However when vision and thinking are involved in the east west game or making creative plays he is pretty much useless. Same data points, but in my opinion that indicates almost no hockey sense not more. If he had this hockey sense he would be able to think the game east-west and in the cycle game.

Your judgement of Kane appears to be based on his play with linemates who had very little skill. It seems to me that he is starting to play a more intelligent offensive game. He is passing to linemates who are in better scoring position and he is shooting from more varied positions. I think the sample size of this is too small to be certain that a change has taken place but I see encouraging signs. If I am right it will start to show in the stats. He still won't have hockey IQ and playmaking ability like a Petan or an Ehlers but better than you are crediting him with. Time will tell.

P.S. Your use of 'North-South' and 'East-West' makes me wonder if coaching might also have been a factor? Noel did seem to push the 'North-South' game.

 

[ihadtochangethename]

i guess thats why the 'best player on the team' thinks he can get us to the next level.

 

[roccerfeller]

there is so much popcorn in my mouth right now reading this thread



(for real - good discussion)