Oilers in the conference final?

[Herschel]

As if McDavid is not getting any attention now and the other team just stands watching him make plays. I am not saying the Oilers will go far--we simply do not know what will happen--but arguments like this makes you wonder if people ever watch the players they comment on. Perry stood by McDavid for good chunk of the shift yesterday, while Kesler was on ice every time. McDavid still got 3 points.

There is a difference come playoffs.

1) Familiarity - defenders are going to see him back to back to back. They are going to start to learn what works and how to limit is chances.

2) Game plan - the entire NHL knows if you shutdown McDavid you likely win the game. They are going to be focused on doing this and nothing else. In the regular season you try to do this but come playoffs you have hard matches, practice systems ONLY intended for McDavid

3) Mental - McDavid is also about to find out what it is like to have the same elite shutdown forward play against him shift after shirt after shirt. Someone who is going to be in face, trash talking and getting under his skin for what is going to feel like every **** of every game. At times this has rattled almost every player who has ever played the game.

4) Reffing - it changes come playoffs, teams are going to be able to slow him down just a little bit more, they are going to be able to hit him, push him and skrum with him every chance they get.


This is not to say the Oilers are going to be an easy out. They are scary because with McDavid you can dominate them for 59 minutes and make one mistake when he is on the ice and it is suddenly in the back of your net.

In the Pacific

Oilers vs Flame - this is a crap shoot but would be a fun series.
Oliers vs Ducks - I like the Ducks in 5/6, for as good as McDavid can be the Oilers don't have an answer for Getzlaf
Oiler vs Sharks - hard to handipcap this not knowing what is up with Thornton or Couture. If they are both good to go the Sharks will win the stats battle by a wide margin but I see the Oilers winning the series.

 

[Wewillrise]

The Oilers seemed to play better when the games were rougher during the regular season and worst when it was just up and down the ice skating contests. This isn't the Oilers of the past few years, this is a team with a lot of size and a hell of a lot tougher. Used to be you lean on the Oilers they fold and lose without a fight, now when teams try and lean on the Oilers they lean back and usually wind up coming out ahead.Not worried at all about the physicality of the playoffs. The only concern is that sometimes the Oilers scoring dries up. They can play defense and handle the rough stuff plenty well enough, just whether they keep getting the goals or not.

This is spot on and I don't even think you are an Oiler fan. Couldn't say it better myself and I've only missed 5 games.

Posters saying that the refs putting the whistles away and the game gets harder don't realize how the Oilers are built.

Mcdavids speed can not be game planned for. If he has less than a step on most defenders he can still beat them. Mabey they contain him on the cycle but def not on the rush.

 

[Herschel]

This is spot on and I don't even think you are an Oiler fan. Couldn't say it better myself and I've only missed 5 games.

Posters saying that the refs putting the whistles away and the game gets harder don't realize how the Oilers are built.

Mcdavids speed can not be game planned for. If he has less than a step on most defenders he can still beat them. Mabey they contain him on the cycle but def not on the rush.

But what happens if teams simply fall back into a prevent trap style when he is on the ice? Two forwards back, stack the line... similar to a PK?

Year after year the playoffs have shown that 1 line or 2 line teams don't go very far.

 

[missinthejets]

But what happens if teams simply fall back into a prevent trap style when he is on the ice? Two forwards back, stack the line... similar to a PK?

Then you do what every team does... dump the puck in and win battles, so you have elite speed from mcdavid either winning races or forcing rushed plays from the D and then he's got a couple big wingers to do some battle winning along the boards. McDavid is underrated in board battles too because he's not the grind it out type, but he has quick hands and quick feet so he can actually steal pucks and get out of the mess in a hurry too.

It's not like the Oilers are a team that only scores goals off the rush, they can play along the wall just fine because every single line has enough size on it to win the battles.

 

[Legend123]

Ive watched a bunch of Oilers games (only bcuz of McDavid) and although they are good Defensively, they will only go as far as their top line will bring them. So i doubt they will win more than one or two rounds. Once that top line is shut down, idk what they can do to win any games. Im hoping they make it to finals tho! I also hope the habs make it. Imagine an all canadian final!

 

[JaegerDice]

A team with pretty much no playoff experience making it all way to the conference finals or even more?

Doubtful.

Blackhawks did it in 2009.

 

[kypredsfan]

Someone sure is putting the cart before the horse. The Oilers definitely won't be considered favorites for anything their first year back in forever.

 

[jeffff]

Everyone keeps on mentioning lack of scoring depth.

Edmonton is 2nd in the Pacific with 95 goals from their bottom 9 forwards.

Calgary has 102
Anaheim 93
San Jose 70.

In the Central:

Chicago 110
Minny 103
St Louis 92
Nashville 91

Edmonton is 4th out of the 8 playoff teams in the west with their bottom 9 goal scoring.

 

[Herschel]

It's not like the Oilers are a team that only scores goals off the rush, they can play along the wall just fine because every single line has enough size on it to win the battles.

I agree, but if a series comes down to the cycle game do you still see the Oilers has a favourite against Ducks, Sharks (if health) or Flames?

 

[Herschel]

Everyone keeps on mentioning lack of scoring depth.

Edmonton is 2nd in the Pacific with 95 goals from their bottom 9 forwards.

Edmonton is 4th out of the 8 playoff teams in the west with their bottom 9 goal scoring.

Not sure how you determined that number but without really researching it I would ask the following?

1) How many of those 95 came on a PP vs. 5 on 5?
- Letestu has 10 PP goals out of is 15
- 50% of Lucic's point are on the PP


2) How many of those came while said player was playing on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl?

 

[bucks_oil]

Not sure how you determined that number but without really researching it I would ask the following?

1) How many of those 95 came on a PP vs. 5 on 5?
- Letestu has 10 PP goals out of is 15
- 50% of Lucic's point are on the PP


2) How many of those came while said player was playing on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl?

It's a good point, but the gauntlet is laid down. If someone would like to do the math and apply the same logic to the other teams (2nd-4th liners playing with Gaudreau or Thorton or Getzlaf, etc)... then it would be an additional layer of detail that might add something...

But the gross numbers as presented aren't so bad... shouldn't be dismissed so easily.

 

[iCanada]

There is a difference come playoffs.

1) Familiarity - defenders are going to see him back to back to back. They are going to start to learn what works and how to limit is chances.

2) Game plan - the entire NHL knows if you shutdown McDavid you likely win the game. They are going to be focused on doing this and nothing else. In the regular season you try to do this but come playoffs you have hard matches, practice systems ONLY intended for McDavid

3) Mental - McDavid is also about to find out what it is like to have the same elite shutdown forward play against him shift after shirt after shirt. Someone who is going to be in face, trash talking and getting under his skin for what is going to feel like every **** of every game. At times this has rattled almost every player who has ever played the game.

4) Reffing - it changes come playoffs, teams are going to be able to slow him down just a little bit more, they are going to be able to hit him, push him and skrum with him every chance they get.


This is not to say the Oilers are going to be an easy out. They are scary because with McDavid you can dominate them for 59 minutes and make one mistake when he is on the ice and it is suddenly in the back of your net.

In the Pacific

Oilers vs Flame - this is a crap shoot but would be a fun series.
Oliers vs Ducks - I like the Ducks in 5/6, for as good as McDavid can be the Oilers don't have an answer for Getzlaf
Oiler vs Sharks - hard to handipcap this not knowing what is up with Thornton or Couture. If they are both good to go the Sharks will win the stats battle by a wide margin but I see the Oilers winning the series.

There hasn't been a single club all year who didn't come in with familiarity and a game plan to handle McDavid.

Teams bring their best plans and efforts to play us. Have been all year. Really noticeable when you watch the sane team go play Calgary the next night.

No one has been sleeping on McDavid and he is already held and interfered with all shift every shift.

 

[Crabapple]

Only if Lucic-RNH-Eberle can find a way to be effective. I could see us winning a round though.

 

[smackdaddy]

By no means do I expect the Oilers to make the finals but boy do people underestimate them. I think it's clear most haven't seen mcdavid or the Oilers play. They match up exceptionally well against the Pacific I think

 

[bucks_oil]

There is a difference come playoffs.

1) Familiarity - defenders are going to see him back to back to back. They are going to start to learn what works and how to limit is chances.

2) Game plan - the entire NHL knows if you shutdown McDavid you likely win the game. They are going to be focused on doing this and nothing else. In the regular season you try to do this but come playoffs you have hard matches, practice systems ONLY intended for McDavid

3) Mental - McDavid is also about to find out what it is like to have the same elite shutdown forward play against him shift after shirt after shirt. Someone who is going to be in face, trash talking and getting under his skin for what is going to feel like every **** of every game. At times this has rattled almost every player who has ever played the game.

4) Reffing - it changes come playoffs, teams are going to be able to slow him down just a little bit more, they are going to be able to hit him, push him and skrum with him every chance they get.


This is not to say the Oilers are going to be an easy out. They are scary because with McDavid you can dominate them for 59 minutes and make one mistake when he is on the ice and it is suddenly in the back of your net.

In the Pacific

Oilers vs Flame - this is a crap shoot but would be a fun series.
Oliers vs Ducks - I like the Ducks in 5/6, for as good as McDavid can be the Oilers don't have an answer for Getzlaf
Oiler vs Sharks - hard to handipcap this not knowing what is up with Thornton or Couture. If they are both good to go the Sharks will win the stats battle by a wide margin but I see the Oilers winning the series.

I could argue any of these points in McD's favor as well... so we'll just have to see:

1). You think McD won't benefit from learning how to play certain players one-up? You think when McD danced around Shea Weber, or Ekman-Larsson that maybe Weber hadn't heard about him coming into the game? Any given defender had an ADVANTAGE of knowing McD vs hundreds of defenders McD wouldn't know. They were already keyed in on him. What happens when he can do the same?

2). Systems... this has already been happening and agree the attention/buy-in will go up. But McD has a variety of tools and hasn't been shut down by any "system" yet. I think this is your strongest argument, but we'll see... and see point 4.

3). I'd take this bet. We didn't see Gretzky or Lemieux or Crosby back down from a little trash talk... they rose to it. Did you see McD against Philly this year? Motivation is a powerful thing and the greatest don't often have it eat them negatively... it propels them.

4). Refs will put the whistle away... true... but they've already been forced to do that with McD. He draws the most penalties in the league and they blatantly turn a blind eye to half of the infractions... there are so many hooks to choose from they have to only call the most blatant ones. What will these "systems" designed for McD entail if not more obstruction? The willingness to call penalties will fall, but the number of infractions on him will rise... not certain the refs will be able to ignore everything.

 

[bucks_oil]

Only if Lucic-RNH-Eberle can find a way to be effective. I could see us winning a round though.

For the record... this is my position. I'm satisfied with 7 games played. Less would be a disappointment.

I'm not sure we even win one round, but if I were placing bets I'll bet we turn heads in the second round and push right to the edge of the semis.

And I agree... it all comes down to RNH and Ebs mostly... they've played very well defensively and have bought in... now it's time for them to realize that they can play well defensively without squeezing their sticks so tight... If we see RNH penetrating into the middle on the rush, or Ebs dropping the shoulder and driving the net, we'll win our share of games.

 

[iCanada]

But what happens if teams simply fall back into a prevent trap style when he is on the ice? Two forwards back, stack the line... similar to a PK?

Year after year the playoffs have shown that 1 line or 2 line teams don't go very far.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/game-story-oilers-3-ducks-2-ot/c-288339574

Ask Anaheim. That elite shutdown forward ended -3 after having his stick in Connors shift after shift.

 

[Frosty415]

Leafs/Oilers finals

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I don't see it happen with Eberle and RNH MIA

Strongly agree with this. While it's possible for a 1 line team with solid team D & great goaltending to make the WCF, it's definitely a long shot IMO.

 

[iCanada]

I agree with the sentiment that RNH & Eberle need to get going for us to do some damage.

But Connors gonna Connor no matter what. Kid is unstoppable.

 

[Renly Baratheon]

I'd be thrilled if they won a playoff round let alone came out of the pacific.

I don't think the Oilers match up well with Nashville and Anaheim. Normally I would add the Sharks to that group but lately they're on a run of bad luck. The Oilers would beat the Flames convincingly in a quick series, I want them in the first round the most.

 

[Slush]

They'll be knocked out in the first round.

 

[Herschel]

I could argue any of these points in McD's favor as well... so we'll just have to see:

1). You think McD won't benefit from learning how to play certain players one-up? You think when McD danced around Shea Weber, or Ekman-Larsson that maybe Weber hadn't heard about him coming into the game? Any given defender had an ADVANTAGE of knowing McD vs hundreds of defenders McD wouldn't know. They were already keyed in on him. What happens when he can do the same?

2). Systems... this has already been happening and agree the attention/buy-in will go up. But McD has a variety of tools and hasn't been shut down by any "system" yet. I think this is your strongest argument, but we'll see... and see point 4.

3). I'd take this bet. We didn't see Gretzky or Lemieux or Crosby back down from a little trash talk... they rose to it. Did you see McD against Philly this year? Motivation is a powerful thing and the greatest don't often have it eat them negatively... it propels them.

4). Refs will put the whistle away... true... but they've already been forced to do that with McD. He draws the most penalties in the league and they blatantly turn a blind eye to half of the infractions... there are so many hooks to choose from they have to only call the most blatant ones. What will these "systems" designed for McD entail if not more obstruction? The willingness to call penalties will fall, but the number of infractions on him will rise... not certain the refs will be able to ignore everything.

Awesome replu, thank you for engaging in a debate.

1) I doubt McD game is going to change all that much, he is too dominate and until he is truly shutdown for a long stretch he is unlikely to make major changes.

Defenders have to change their angles and gaps. Sure everyone knows about McD but until you see him live you don't realize just how much quicker he is than the other top end players. The challenge for teams facing the Oilers is

2) You could argue he hasn't really faced a system yet. Team have game planned for him but with the rigors of the schedule how many of had sent even an hour practicing systems to limit McD?

In the playoffs he is likely going to face a five-man unit that is going to focus and practice on how to defend against him. Add this to the experience of seeing him game after game.

3) I am thinking more along the lines of frustration. Crosby has been rattled in several series over his career, as have most notable players. It is rare for a playoff rookie not to get frustrated earlier in their careers.

We just don't know what the 15 little slash to his leg after the whistle from the same player who has been riding him all game is going to do.
This also goes for a large portion of the Oiler roster. Outside of some of the added vets this is the first taste of playoffs for the core of this team. One of those vets is also known for not dealing well with frustration very well and let it get to him.

4) No guarantee what happens but I am alway surprised what doesn't get called in the tail ends of a playoff game.

 

[tony d]

I don't think they get past Anaheim but I see them getting by the Sharks and the Flames.

 

[scb23]

I think anything is possible. The Oilers are playing really well right now, but so are the Ducks, Flames, Blues and Preds. Not to mention the Hawks. All the teams 2-8 in the west are pretty close. I think Hawks make it through the west but the rest is a giant question mark.