Pre-Game Talk: Oilers in Sin City on Saturday

[BoldNewLettuce]

The only way to fix the bottom six is to split the players up into pairs.

McDavid-Hyman
Drai-Yams
RNH-Puljujarvi
McLeod-Foegle

Add the 3rd player as you see fit

im guessing thats what they are thinking come playoffs---if they dont get a 3c.

 

[bone]

Yeah, would be great to see what the numbers are league-wide when each teams 2 best players aren't on the ice for context.

It would still be glaring, but if you took out their best two players and replaced with McDrai, I suspect they'd still be generating 40% or more of most team's offence. That's where I find funny about people claiming the generate such a high rate of offense for the team as an indicator that the team sucks. They literally have 50% more offence each than the 4th best scorer in the NHL right now.

 

[Zenos]

Replying to the tweet:

I suppose it depends what we're considering depth... Because the top-6 depth (ie. players beyond just Drai and McD) is substantially better than the past couple years. The emergence of Puljujärvi and addition of Hyman continues to make a difference.

But yeah, the bottom 6 is still largely innefective. But if the top-6 works and the PP continues to click, is this really such a terrible problem?

 

[Stoneman89]

McDrai are feasting on the PP, and typically play nearly all of the PP time except for 20 seconds or so at the end. They are deadly efficient on it, and that is where a huge chunk of their points come from, so not a huge surprise that they are miles ahead of anyone else not on the PP. I suspect that is not unlike so many other teams (OV with Washington, the Perfection line, etc). Doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the team is shyte, although there has been some of that in there.

 

[Stoneman89]

This is going to be a pretty stern test for the youngsters, especially on the blueline. These won't be some no names coming down on the forecheck like Arizona, but guys like Stone, Paciorrety, Marchesault, etc... Vegas is getting their wounded guys back.

 

[Czechboy]

Replying to the tweet:

I suppose it depends what we're considering depth... Because the top-6 depth (ie. players beyond just Drai and McD) is substantially better than the past couple years. The emergence of Puljujärvi and addition of Hyman continues to make a difference.

But yeah, the bottom 6 is still largely innefective. But if the top-6 works and the PP continues to click, is this really such a terrible problem?

It has occured to me that maybe 5 on 5 stats are skewed against the Oilers because we are built around 2 generational superstars (that's right, I said it!) and elite special teams. Eg. what is the record of the best 5 on 5 team? Are they elite?

I'm not personally expecting our bottom 6 to score a lot but they do seem to be getting caved pretty good. Price you pay? System? 14-5? It is confusing why they suck every year when it's 8 new guys out of 12 every season (maybe more).

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

It has occured to me that maybe 5 on 5 stats are skewed against the Oilers because we are built around 2 generational superstars (that's right, I said it!) and elite special teams. Eg. what is the record of the best 5 on 5 team? Are they elite?

I'm not personally expecting our bottom 6 to score a lot but they do seem to be getting caved pretty good. Price you pay? System? 14-5? It is confusing why they suck every year when it's 8 new guys out of 12 every season (maybe more).

We’ve had some terrible players in that bottom 6 over the past few years. Even this year our 4th line is 5th line stuff. 3rd line struggled with Ryan at C after the first half dozen games.

Curious to see if PJ can add some offensive punch and defensive acumen to the line and if McLoed can play an involved forechecking game and use that speed with confidence our 3rd line might come around.

It’s a bit of a puzzle yet and for sure still a few missing pieces that will be filled in before the TDL

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[The Safe Play]

Yeah, would be great to see what the numbers are league-wide when each teams 2 best players aren't on the ice for context.

Basically all the teams that win cups are around 50% even those Penguin teams with the cap heavily invested in their stars.

Here's the tweet I remember.

 

[Czechboy]

Basically all the teams that win cups are around 50% even those Penguin teams with the cap heavily invested in their stars.

Here's the tweet I remember.

A fun small sample size would be if team Canada wins gold at Olympics ... What does that 5 on 5 look like? Elite special teams... Elite top 6. And we all know that bottom 6 will be be 6 of the best players in the world.


In any case... I think we all agree that our bottom 6 is weak. But I do wonder if there is more to it? Eg. What would be a good bottom 6 for us?

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

A fun small sample size would be if team Canada wins gold at Olympics ... What does that 5 on 5 look like? Elite special teams... Elite top 6. And we all know that bottom 6 will be be 6 of the best players in the world.


In any case... I think we all agree that our bottom 6 is weak. But I do wonder if there is more to it? Eg. What would be a good bottom 6 for us?

Every line should have a C to anchor the line. McLoed has yet to prove he can do that over 82 games but has shown flashes that he can. Ryan, I’m sorry but he looks done to me right now. Sceviour and Shore are stop gaps at 4C.

So until we address the C positions on a more permanent basis those 2 lines will struggle IMO.

For this season I’d maybe look at RNH at 3C for a few games with McLoed at 4C. But I think starting next year we have some depth that will percolate up.

 

[GreeningOil]

Totally unrelated guys
Anyone on here use a fire stick?

I used to

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Basically all the teams that win cups are around 50% even those Penguin teams with the cap heavily invested in their stars.

Here's the tweet I remember.

How on earth is this bottom 6 worse than 2019-2018?


HOW

HOW

HOW HOW HOW

 

[AM]

It has occured to me that maybe 5 on 5 stats are skewed against the Oilers because we are built around 2 generational superstars (that's right, I said it!) and elite special teams. Eg. what is the record of the best 5 on 5 team? Are they elite?

I'm not personally expecting our bottom 6 to score a lot but they do seem to be getting caved pretty good. Price you pay? System? 14-5? It is confusing why they suck every year when it's 8 new guys out of 12 every season (maybe more).

When you’re paying for 2 generational talents, the expectation is that the rest of the team won’t be as good. Go figure.

 

[LTIR]

When you’re paying for 2 generational talents, the expectation is that the rest of the team won’t be as good. Go figure.

But it's just not the case this year. We have Nuge/Hyman/Foegele/Yama and Puljujarvi as secondary scorers and then McLeod/Ryan/Kassian in bottom 6.

This should be deep enough.

 

[AM]

But it's just not the case this year. We have Nuge/Hyman/Foegele/Yama and Puljujarvi as secondary scorers and then McLeod/Ryan/Kassian in bottom 6.

This should be deep enough.

Stats don’t lie, you just need to understand what they say.

 

[LTIR]

Stats don’t lie, you just need to understand what they say.

They can be skewed to make a point.
Eg. Is Nuge a PPG star we got on a sweet heart deal or is he holding back the top 6 from producing? 1 goal in 18 games where he has been part of a historically great PP unit getting prime mins.

Hyman can also be looked at as a glorified 3rd line who had a hot start.

Puljujarvi's recent stats are borderline press box worthy.

Foelege seems to be the worst defensive forward on the team leaking ES goals against and turning the puck over.

Reality may be different than the stats

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Stats don’t lie, you just need to understand what they say.

That's not what these stats are saying.

What they are saying is that our bottom 6 is worse than every other team's bottom 6, and has consistently gotten worse year over year.

Toronto, who is paying 3 guys 11 million dollars doesn't have this problem. Nobody has this problem.

The stats are pointing out 1 of two things:

- Holland has not correctly identified good bottom 6 players and we haven't got our monies for.

- Tippett's system leads to bottom 6 players playing inefficiently which is reflected in the stats and performance.

It's one, not both; and one is far more likely than the other.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

They can be skewed to make a point.
Eg. Is Nuge a PPG star we got on a sweet heart deal or is he holding back the top 6 from producing? 1 goal in 18 games where he has been part of a historically great PP unit getting prime mins.

Hyman can also be looked at as a glorified 3rd line who had a hot start.

Puljujarvi's recent stats are borderline press box worthy.

Foelege seems to be the worst defensive forward on the team leaking ES goals against and turning the puck over.

Reality may be different than the stats

Which stats are these?

 

[AM]

That's not what these stats are saying.

What they are saying is that our bottom 6 is worse than every other team's bottom 6, and has consistently gotten worse year over year.

Toronto, who is paying 3 guys 11 million dollars doesn't have this problem. Nobody has this problem.

The stats are pointing out 1 of two things:

- Holland has not correctly identified good bottom 6 players and we haven't got our monies for.

- Tippett's system leads to bottom 6 players playing inefficiently which is reflected in the stats and performance.

It's one, not both; and one is far more likely than the other.

Not what I see. I guess we will have to watch further.

 

[LTIR]

Which stats are these?

Hyman, Pulju and Foegele have a combined 1 goal and about 7points in the last 8 games
Nuge has 1 goal all season.

The last time Foegele was + in a game was over a month ago (game #4 of the season)

Not hard to pick n choose stats.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Hyman, Pulju and Foegele have a combined 1 goal and about 7points in the last 8 games
Nuge has 1 goal all season.

The last time Foegele was + in a game was over a month ago (game #4 of the season)

Not hard to pick n choose stats.

The issue is you see McDavid and Drasaitl every night and assume everyone in team's top-6 produce that way, when most produce like Hyman and Puljujarvi. They need to add more, but stop with this nonsense because you don't have very good perspective.

 

[LTIR]

The issue is you see McDavid and Drasaitl every night and assume everyone in team's top-6 produce that way, when most produce like Hyman and Puljujarvi. They need to add more, but stop with this nonsense because you don't have very good perspective.

It may not look good to you but it's my perspective so I will not stop.
You may carry on with 'fire the coach and it will all be rosy' talk.

 

[Shanahanigans]

The fact that we’re relying on Mcdrai even more than the Chia years is a huge indictment on Holland AND Tippett.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Another we have to take into account. Everyone’s gonna look bad in front of this defence. Even Drai’s line gets outchanced at 5x5, but Drai is talented enough to just outscore teams. The bottom 6 have no chance at our chancing and outscoring teams when they’re shackled by our bottom 4 defence. Keith/Ceci and 4K/Barrie is just not good enough bottom 4 for a contender. It’s not a coincidence that the last time we had an over 50% goal share from the bottom 6 is when Sekera and Klefbom were both healthy. Holland made his bet on this D and they’ve been brutal so far.