Oilers Draft Watch, The Road to the Draft (Oilers Finish 28th; 11.5% at McDavid)

[Bryanbryoil]

As of the end of April 6th '15

League Placement, Odds of Winning Draft Lottery, Games, Points, Regular + OT wins (ROW), Highest Possible Point Total (HPPT)

30th 20% 80gp. 54pts. 15ROW HPPT 58

29th 13.5% 79gp. 56pts. 19ROW HPPT 62

28th 11.5% 79gp. 59pts. 18ROW HPPT 65

27th 9.5% 80gp. 67pts. 25ROW HPPT 71


Remaining Games For Each Team:


4/6 vs. Carolina, 4/10 @ Columbus, 4/11 vs. Pittsburgh



4/7 @ Calgary, 4/9 @ Vancouver, 4/11 vs. Anaheim


4/7 vs. LA, 4/9 vs. SJ, 4/11 @ Vancouver


4/8 @ Columbus, 4/11 vs. Montreal

Click to read more...

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I'm currently working on this thread but opened it early so that people can continue the conversation from the closed thread.

 

[LTIR]

After the game tonight we don't need to include TOR and CAR in tank threads.. We are safe from them

 

[Bryanbryoil]

After the game tonight we don't need to include TOR and CAR in tank threads.. We are safe from them

I'll keep them up for now but I suspect that it's a 3 horse race for the bottom 3 spots prior to the lottery.

 

[Lacaar]

I don't think we have a chance in heck of passing anyone but Arizona.

We'd have to win 6 of our remaining 15 just to catch Carolina who now holds 4th.
7 of 15 to catch Toronto.

And those teams would have to lose out.

Say they 4/15 then we need to go 10/15.. so not going to happen.

bottom 3 is in the bag.

 

[Slicknitty]

Another good pick this year guaranteed. I'll be very happy with Strome, Hanifen, or even if the hockey gods are inclined, McDavid. I'm curious about who our other first rounder will be, and the second round. Any scouts in here care to chime in?

 

[LTIR]

What is Row?

 

[Beerfish]

We could have started this one at Christmas.

 

[CupofOil]

What is Row?

Regulation and Overtime wins combined. The first tiebreaker.
The positive is that the Oilers lose (win) the tiebreaker against each team.

Thanks for doing this thread Bryan. I'm surprised we didn't have one up sooner although Oiler GDT's have been tank threads for months now.

 

[McXLNC97]

What is Row?

Regulation/OT Win

 

[rosemount289]

Not so .................???

I don't think we have a chance in heck of passing anyone but Arizona.

We'd have to win 6 of our remaining 15 just to catch Carolina who now holds 4th.
7 of 15 to catch Toronto.

And those teams would have to lose out.

Say they 4/15 then we need to go 10/15.. so not going to happen.
)
bottom 3 is in the bag.

Not so fast........a higher seeded team (out of the playoffs) could still win the lottery so the Oilers can finish 4th at the worst.

I would say 3rd or 4th at the worst that the Oilers will finish.

 

[McXLNC97]

Regulation and Overtime wins combined. The first tiebreaker.
The positive is that the Oilers lose (win) the tiebreaker against each team.

Actually no they don't. Buffalo only has 12 ROWs vs Edmonton's 13, that's why the Sabres blowing the late lead today stings more. Since Oilers won the season series, a tie in ROW will go to the Oilers, thus placing them below Buffalo

 

[CupofOil]

Actually no they don't. Buffalo only has 12 ROWs vs Edmonton's 13, that's why the Sabres blowing the late lead today stings more. Since Oilers won the season series, a tie in ROW will go to the Oilers, thus placing them below Buffalo

That's right, tonight is the first night in a while that the Oilers lose the tiebreaker against Buffalo. That late Leafs goal really stung.

The Oilers have a pretty easy schedule coming up anyway so I expect them to distance a bit from Buffalo.

 

[LTIR]

Not so fast........a higher seeded team (out of the playoffs) could still win the lottery so the Oilers can finish 4th at the worst.

I would say 3rd or 4th at the worst that the Oilers will finish.

Yeh the guy said bottom. 3 finish locked.. Not top3 pick locked.
I can see ARI picking Marner at 3 so 3rd overall or 4th..Hanifin should be available.

 

[Slicknitty]

That's right, tonight is the first night in a while that the Oilers lose the tiebreaker against Buffalo. That late Leafs goal really stung.

The Oilers have a pretty easy schedule coming up anyway so I expect them to distance a bit from Buffalo.

Buffalo and Arizona have 2 games against each other before the season is over. Edmonton is Edmonton, they may surprise you yet.

 

[McDrai]

Hall might be coming back on the 21st so that could potentially ruin the tank
Also, should we really risk this guy getting an injury at the end of the season and needing surgery? That would be our luck

 

[McXLNC97]

Buffalo and Arizona have 2 games against each other before the season is over. Edmonton is Edmonton, they may surprise you yet.

Buffalo still has games against Tor, NJ, Car, CBJ, ARZx2, so yeah there's a few winnable games in there for them yet. They close out the season against the Pens who could end up resting players if that is a meaningless game.

 

[Spawn]

Obviously one of McDavid or Eichel would be great. But I'm not too concerned about how many games the Oilers/Sabres/Coyotes win down the stretch. I'd be happy with any of the top 4 or 5 prospects in this draft.

 

[thadd]

You should have the odds of winning the lottery posted next to each team so that we can lose sleep over the possibility of falling to 4th.

 

[McGoMcD]

Not going to lie I would love to get McEichel, but the top 5-6 are all going to be solid players. So at the end of the day we are going to go into next year with one more very good prospect.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

You should have the odds of winning the lottery posted next to each team so that we can lose sleep over the possibility of falling to 4th.

Done, I'm feeling a bit under the weather so as of now this is how I plan to have the OP.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Watching the Flames right now makes this topic even more depressing.

How are the idiots up top not ashamed of themselves for completely ********ing this team into the depths of toxicity?

 

[The Moose]

Finish 29th: 33.5% odds to draft one of McDavid or Eichel
Finish 28th: 11.5% odds to draft one of McDavid or Eichel

I hope the Oilers management knows these odds....

Edit: Interesting, Coyotes play Buffalo twice.

 

[thadd]

Buffalo - 7
Edmonton - 7
Phoenix - 4
Carolina - 8
Toronto - 4

That's how many games these teams have that I feel they've got at least a 50/50 chance at winning.

If Buffalo and Arizona can go to OT on both occasions.
If Toronto can beat Edmonton.
If Buffalo can beat 3 of Toronto, New Jersey, Carolina and Colorado.
If Phoenix can beat NJ and Colorado...

If pigs could fly...

 

[frag2]

That's right, tonight is the first night in a while that the Oilers lose the tiebreaker against Buffalo. That late Leafs goal really stung.

The Oilers have a pretty easy schedule coming up anyway so I expect them to distance a bit from Buffalo.

If by easy, you mean easy loss right?

I don't see us winning any of those... Maybe Toronto but that's it