Oilers and drafting goalies

[oilphan]

It just occurred to me that the Oilers seem to always draft Canadian goalies in the last few years (Doobie, Roy, Deslauriers, Bunz). Given that Canada is probably the worst producer of goal tending talent, why do you think we always go the local route? Just found it curious.

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[The Nuge]

We don't only draft Canadian goalies. They're just some of the more noteworthy

 

[Mr Forever]

We drafted two Finnish goalies recently

 

[SK13]

1) Canada is the "worst producer of Goal talent"? That's just wrong.

2) The last two Goaltenders we drafted were Finns.

 

[Draiskull]

wasted draft picks..
By the time they become any good they are a year or 2 away from UFA stats..

Rather see us trade for them or pick em up via free agency.

 

[Worraps]

Drafting a good NHL goalie is just dumb luck and almost no one is willing to trade one. The Oilers have been pretty unlucky for awhile but I have hope for Dubnyk.

All you can do is keep throwing 3rd/4th round picks at the problem and hope something sticks. If not Dubnyk, Bunz or Roy could be the guy. Only time will tell.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I badly wanted the Oilers to somehow move up and get Vasilevski in the 1st round of the last draft... (not that they would have likely chosen him... probably would have picked a dman or C).

Every time I watch Vasilevski he looks solid and even when his team loses he never plays poorly.

I agree the Oilers haven't been great at drafting goalies but Bunz or Roy might be decent in a few years.

I actually don't really agree that goalies are a crapshoot... ALL 18 year old hockey players are a crapshoot... centres, wingers, dmen AND goalies. I bet the bust percentage is just as high for highly drafted forwards as it is for highly drafted goalies... except the sample size is much smaller for goalies so they stick out even more when they bust.

Personally I wouldn't be afraid to draft a goalie in the 1st round IF he is showing exceptional talent (like Vasilevski). I think it's a fallacy that goalies are too unpredictable and a waste of a pick... plenty of 1st round picks have been "wasted" on forwards and dmen as well... it's just the nature of drafting 17/18 years old kids.

 

[Hynh]

I actually don't really agree that goalies are a crapshoot... ALL 18 year old hockey players are a crapshoot... centres, wingers, dmen AND goalies. I bet the bust percentage is just as high for highly drafted forwards at it is for highly drafted goalies... except the sample size is much smaller for goalies so they stick out even more when they bust.

I think it's more that there are twelve forwards and only two goalies per team. Look at Paajarvi. Drafted to be a first line winger but he won't be a complete bust because he should be able to carve out a role as a third line winger. If a goalie ends up as only the third best on his team he's in the AHL.

 

[joestevens29]

I hate drafting goalies. To me it's pointless to draft one early, unless some sort of hot prospect ranked 3rd falls to 15th.

Look at how the guys we drafted have developed recently. Roy's develop alone has been enough to give a person a brain hemmorage on how up and down he has been.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Dud the OP look at the last few drafts before making this thread

Samu Perhonen-- drafted in the 3rd round--
Frans Tuohimaa
Bjorn Bjurling-- oiler tried to bring him over before they signed Habby
Jussi Markkanen
Adam Hauser
Kristian Antila


last 13 years the oilers have drafted 12 goalies-- half have been non-Canadian

bigger statement is that the oiles do not know how to draft goalies


Bjorn Bjurling drafted in 2004 9th round has fallen off the hockey map
Glenn Fisher could barely play at the echl level
Jussi Markkanen still playing in europe
Adam Houser playing somewhere in lower european levels
Kristian Antila reportedly quit for injury and familiy reasons-- people who I talked to told me he was a good goalie

 

[Alex87]

Dud the OP look at the last few drafts before making this thread

Samu Perhonen-- drafted in the 3rd round--
Frans Tuohimaa
Bjorn Bjurling-- oiler tried to bring him over before they signed Habby
Jussi Markkanen
Adam Hauser
Kristian Antila


last 13 years the oilers have drafted 12 goalies-- half have been non-Canadian

bigger statement is that the oiles do not know how to draft goalies


Bjorn Bjurling drafted in 2004 9th round has fallen off the hockey map
Glenn Fisher could barely play at the echl level
Jussi Markkanen still playing in europe
Adam Houser playing somewhere in lower european levels
Kristian Antila reportedly quit for injury and familiy reasons-- people who I talked to told me he was a good goalie

Oilers also took Mike Morrison in '98 who is American. Ty Conklin was as well, but was never drafted.

 

[lakai17]

need to talk to Stevie Y and the Lighning with their signings of Lindback and Helenius then drafting young stud netmindera in Tokarski/Vasilevskly.

We need to pursue Slovakian netminder jaroslav Janus from Tampa.

 

[Patch101]

I agree with goalies not being worth a high draft pick, but I'm totally okay with picking up goalies after the 3rd round. IMO, they are a crap-shoot. Go look at P.Rinne last last round pickup. He looks okay I'd say.

 

[The Nuge]

I agree with goalies not being worth a high draft pick, but I'm totally okay with picking up goalies after the 3rd round. IMO, they are a crap-shoot. Go look at P.Rinne last last round pickup. He looks okay I'd say.

I agree. I think you take one or maybe two a year in the later rounds, and hope one pans out

 

[McDoused]

The problems with goaltenders are that we only have 30 starters in the NHL. Meanwhile we have some 360 odd forwards and 180 some odd dmen. As risky as it is to take a goaltender, it's a necessary risk. Most teams don't trade away Stanley cup winning goaltenders (Quick, Fleury, Ward, etc all with their respective teams). I have no problem drafting a goaltender in the later stages of the first round or in the second.

 

[The Nuge]

The problems with goaltenders are that we only have 30 starters in the NHL. Meanwhile we have some 360 odd forwards and 180 some odd dmen. As risky as it is to take a goaltender, it's a necessary risk. Most teams don't trade away Stanley cup winning goaltenders (Quick, Fleury, Ward, etc all with their respective teams). I have no problem drafting a goaltender in the later stages of the first round or in the second.

Ya but what's the point when the best goalie in the NHL right now was a 7th round pick? You can get a starter from any part of the draft

 

[Patch101]

The problems with goaltenders are that we only have 30 starters in the NHL. Meanwhile we have some 360 odd forwards and 180 some odd dmen. As risky as it is to take a goaltender, it's a necessary risk. Most teams don't trade away Stanley cup winning goaltenders (Quick, Fleury, Ward, etc all with their respective teams). I have no problem drafting a goaltender in the later stages of the first round or in the second.

Henrik Lundqvist, 7th round pick
Pekka Rinne, 8th round pick
Jaroslav Halak, 9th round pick
Ryan Miller, 5th round pick
Niklas Backstrom, undrafted
Jonas Hiller, undrafted
Antti Niemi, undrafted
Miikka Kiprusoff, 5th round
Brian Elliott, 9th round pick
Evgeni Nabokov, 9th round pick
Sergei Bobrovsky, undrafted

Sure, there are also plenty of 1st, and 2nd round goalies out there, but I'd say there is no reason to throw out high picks for a goalie.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Goalies who were 1st round draft picks who played in the NHL last season...

Leland Irving
Brian Boucher
Rick DiPietro
Al Montoya
Jonathan Bernier
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
Martin Biron
Tuukka Rask
Cam Ward
Carey Price
Semyon Varlamov
Cory Schneider
Devan Dubnyk
Marc-Andre Fleury
Kari Lehtonen
Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo

Now that's certainly a mixed bag... some average to mediocre tenders in there.. but obviously some solid starters and franchise goalies as well.

I still say it's a huge fallacy to say it's not worth picking a goalie in the 1st round (and an extreme fallacy to extend that to the 1st 2 rounds).

If there is obvious talent there... be it a forward, dman or goalie... you choose them if you deem they are worthy of a 1st round pick and that player could help you win a cup down the line. Sure they can bust when chosen high but I still say a dman or forward can bust as well and are obviously not immune to being 1st round failures.

For some reason many people seem to think all teams can find exceptional goalies in the 6th round and never even have to worry about "wasting" a high pick on them. If that were the case... every team would have a late round star like a Pekke Rinne or a Miikka Kiprusoff. That just isn't the case though.

 

[Bangers]

If a goalie is projected as a top 5 player in the draft, you go with him and ride the growing pains (a la Fleury/Price), but if a goalie doesn't project to be NHL-ready within 2 seasons, I think it's smarter to wait until later rounds given how long it usually takes to develop goalies (and yes, I know DiPietro busted, but injuries can ruin prospects at any position).

However, if a new CBA allows teams to keep their prospects' rights longer, this could change.

 

[Jumptheshark]

goalies taken in the top 21 in recent memory
2006 Bernier LA 11 Riku Helenius TB 15 Semyon Varlamov wsh 23
2005 Carey Price mont 5 Tuukka Rask to 21
2004 Al Montoya myr 6 Marek Schwarz blues 17 Cory Schneider van 26 (oilers took schremp at 25)
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury pen 1 (do you take him over Staal, Perry, Getzlof, Vanek)
2002 Kari Lehtonen atl 2
2001 Pascal Leclaire bjs 6 Dan Blackburn nyr 10
2000 Rick DiPietro nyi 1 Brent Krahn flames 9
1999 Brian Finley 6 Maxime Ouellet fly 22 Ari Ahonen njd 27
1998 Patrick DesRochers pho 14 Mathieu Chouinard ott 15
1997 Roberto Luongo nyi 4 Mika Noronen buf 21
1996 Craig Hillier pts 23
1995 Martin Biron buf 16 Brian Boucher fly 22 Marc Denis col 25
1994 Jamie Storr la 7 Eric Fichaud to 16 Evgeni Ryabchikov bos (you want to annoy bruins talk about this pick) 22 Dan Cloutier nyr 26
1993 Jocelyn Thibault que 10
1992 none in the frist
1991 none in the first round

Looking at that list how many generation goalies are on that list

In my life time I would say I have seen two generational goalies
Marty B in NJ who was taken 20th overall in 1990 and Pat Roy who was 3rd round in 84

I see people sayinrg Price was a slam dunk--the next year The future Oiler great Al Montoya was taken at 6th

with goalies it is all about how you develop them and how much time you spend with them

I know it is an old debate, but in my opinion for both DD and JDD their development was greatly hurt the year the oilers had no farm that they controlled. They shared it with the Pens and in my opinion the pens showed their prospect more time and effort then ours,

Oilers need to put in place a development plan for the players they take to help guide them along the path

 

[nexttothemoon]

For me the whole argument about taking a goalie early comes down to whether he's BPA at that stage... and yes it's tough to judge for a goalie (maybe moreso than for a dman or a forward)... but the payoff can be huge as well.

Say you pass on a talent like a Brodeur/Price etc because you think... hey, 1st round is a waste to pick a goalie because they take so long to develop, hard to project etc. Instead you pick a dman or a forward and they may or may not bust... same story if you had picked a promising looking goalie in that spot.

A great talent in net can mean the difference between a cup or no cup as goalies literally can steal games and sometimes entire playoff series. They are worth the risk imo. Of course they need to be a clearly talented player to be worthy of consideration.... I think Vasilevski was that type of player last year... but you won't get those players every year.

I just don't agree with the statment that goalies are wasted picks in the 1st round. If you do manage to get hold of a Roy/Brodeur/Hasek type talent.... they can be absolute rocks in net for a decade or more and give you a legit shot at contention year in and year out. Sure you can find those goaltending talents in later rounds as well... just like you can find a Datsyuk or a Zetterberg there as well when it comes to forwards.

To say it's categorically a waste and dumb to pick them high though... say 1st and 2nd rounds... just silly.

 

[McDoused]

Ya but what's the point when the best goalie in the NHL right now was a 7th round pick? You can get a starter from any part of the draft

By this logic we should wait until the 6th round to draft our first line center because that's where Datsyuk was drafted. Like Nexttothemoon and Bangers said, you go with BPA even if that BPA is a goaltender. I'm not for taking a project goalie early but if you are confident In a guy then it's worth the risk.

One of the biggest problems when we evaluate goaltenders is the serious lack of statistics we can pull on the nature. Generally we get 1-2 goaltenders a year drafted in the first round and it can take 5 years for them to make the NHL. The small sample size makes it hard to identify the success rate. I've also noticed that clubs are more willing to take a flyer on a goaltender in weaker drafts even though they aren't projected to be first rounders.

For every goaltender bust their is a goaltender that dominates his position. At the end of the day Bunz and Roy are long shots for starters.

The way Edmonton is so easy to use 2nd round picks on addressing need (Pitlick, Musil, and Moroz), I don't see a guy like Fucale being much more of a risk.

Regardless of where a goaltender I drafted, I don't see other teams trading away elite level young goaltenders. The only time it does happen, it's because they already have an elite level goaltender in the lineup. We are going to have to overpay for a guy like Bernier or try something creative like offersheeting. I wouldn't be surprised If the cap goes down that we could try and take advantage of a team dealing from a position of weakness.

At this point, if we drafted a goaltender he would still be 4-5 years away from smelling the coffee. I sure hope our window to compete is much shorter than that.

 

[McDoused]

Also if you can get a franchise goaltender like Montoya falling to 6th overall you pretty much have to scoop him up.

 

[nexttothemoon]

If you look at some of the 1st round picks the Oilers made on dmen and forwards in the 90's and 00's (prior to the lotto picks these last few years)... they really wouldn't have done much worse by trying to draft a few goalies high in a lot of those years.

Schremp
Pouliot
Niinimaki
Mikhnov
Rita
Henrich
Riesen
Descoteaux
Kelly
Bonsignore
Stajduhar
Hulbig

With 1st round picks like those... would the Oilers really have done worse by choosing goalies in the 1st round instead? Hard to see how they would have done much worse.

 

[molsonmuscle360]

I'm of the opinion is that you should use one mid and one late pick on goalies every year. The chances of either of those picks making it with a regular player are slim enough, so take the risk. Say use your 3rd and 7th on goalies or something like that.

Or if there is an elite one early, well grab him. I would have traded up for either Vashelievski or Subban last year.