Post-Game Talk: Oilers 3, Avalanche 2 (OT)

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Few are going to argue that the Oilers won the Eberle/Strome deal. But let's at least be accurate in your comments. At ES the Oilers are scoring only slightly less than they did last year 125 goals in 60 games vs 132 in 61 at the same time last year. And the drop in production from the defense is a the majority of the difference.

So why wouldn't we want to score more then? Wasn't the goal to be better than last year? Clearly it wasn't the GM's goal. Regression was always expected especially from a few players.

Of the five 20 goal scorers last year 4 are still on the team. One is not and that is Eberle who by the way had exactly 20 goals. Moreover you have Nugent-Hopkins who was on pace for just under 30 goals before getting hurt. So unless you can make the case that Eberle would have magically made Maroon and or Lucic score more often then I don't see anything in your argument.

Everyone knew Maroon was going to come down a bit. And Lucic... hoo boy. The decline is a sharp one for sure. The point here is that we subtracted 20 goals from the lineup (if not more) and didn't replace it. RNH scoring is great but he's a center. We're talking wingers here. Maroon is the only one with more than 10 and with Drai/McDavid healthy for basically the entire year that's pretty alarming that nobody can produce with either of them.

Losing Eberle is about #750 on the list of why the Oilers are where they are today. And this is coming from a guy who said that the team needs to be cautious about downgrading skill too much.

The team downgraded in the offseason and now they're not just worse, they're really, really bad. It's not just one thing, it's a combination of many small things. As the guy who should be fired himself said "death of a thousand cuts". Look at the wings. Is there a top 6 winger on the roster right now?

 

[Little Fury]

yes...yes I do

"driving" a line...don't you think he drove that line last night?

He had a great night. Let's see him do that consistently without playing with McDavid.

 

[Aerchon]

Chiarelli doesn't just deserve criticism. He deserves to be fired.

The Oilers have 60 million against the cap next year tied up in 13 players. That leaves him with at most 20 million to fill out the rest of the roster. And of course that's not taking RFAs and whatnot into account. Someone is likely to be sacrificed in the offseason (Hello RNH) for scraps yet again and we are left with a middling team that has 2 elite centers and nothing else.

This is a slow, unskilled team save for a few players. They frequently get beaten to critical areas and down the ice in general. How many odd man rushes did the Bruins have the other day? 12?

Currently have McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH. All high skill centers. Great way to build. All young and fast.

We have JP who should be a top 6 talent. Young and fast.

Plus Lucic, who outside of this year is a legit top 6 winger.

Yama coming soon...

That really is a lot more than the average team has. As well as a decent bottom 6. Need a bit more speed there.

Edit: Also for the obviously mathematically challenged. Eberle had 20 goals. We traded Eberle for Strome. However many goals Strome gets will need to be subtracted from Eberle's 20 goals to figure out how many goals we lost from that trade. 5 to 10 goals? Plus I personally think Strome is far superior two way player so maybe a few less goals against.

Eberle is the better player. We do miss him. But people are grossly exaggerating how much we are missing him. Guy was having serious issues in Edmonton and needed a change of scenery. Pencil ing in Eberle for 20 goals this year on this team is very optimistic imo.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Currently have McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH. All high skill centers. Great way to build. All young and fast.

They won't be forever. And that's just forwards. The defense is mediocre at best. Plus RNH is likely going to be traded soon because there's no room for him.

We have JP who should be a top 6 talent. Young and fast.

The key word here is "should". There's nothing showing right now that he is.

Plus Lucic, who outside of this year is a legit top 6 winger.

Oiler fans are praying that this year is an outlier because he's not just poor, he's probably the worst forward on the team currently. And he's signed for 5 more years to boot. The NHL is a fast game and Lucic even at top speed isn't anywhere near what most players are.

Yama coming soon...

I'll be frank here. Unless he completely torches camp and pre-season, he shouldn't be here next year. If the Oilers start with him on the top line AGAIN they've failed.

That really is a lot more than the average team has. As well as a decent bottom 6. Need a bit more speed there.

The bottom 6 is not "decent". Letestu and Cammalleri haven't scored in 40+ games combined. Slepyshev is a tweener who sometimes looks like he has it figured out but most nights you forget he's even there. Kassian is finally starting to come on but for the most part has been invisible. Khaira is a nice surprise, hopefully he maintains his level of play from earlier in the season. Never mind that usually one or two of these guys is on the ice for our much maligned penalty kill.

I don't think the Oilers are a bottom 5 team overall but the fact they're supposed to be contending this year with a cheap McDavid and here they are pushing the bottom of the standings is a fireable offense. Too many lost trades, and too many losses in general.

 

[trollytrackz]

On the other hand the AV's board is awfully complimentary of Leon. Some pretty good comments there. Fair assessment of the game and they figure the Oilers deserved to win by a mile. Rare to get that kind of assessment from opposition board even if true.

I've noticed that with the Av's board before as well. It's like they're on some kind of island of rationality at all times.

 

[Fourier]

So why wouldn't we want to score more then? Wasn't the goal to be better than last year? Clearly it wasn't the GM's goal. Regression was always expected especially from a few players.



Everyone knew Maroon was going to come down a bit. And Lucic... hoo boy. The decline is a sharp one for sure. The point here is that we subtracted 20 goals from the lineup (if not more) and didn't replace it. RNH scoring is great but he's a center. We're talking wingers here. Maroon is the only one with more than 10 and with Drai/McDavid healthy for basically the entire year that's pretty alarming that nobody can produce with either of them.


The team downgraded in the offseason and now they're not just worse, they're really, really bad. It's not just one thing, it's a combination of many small things. As the guy who should be fired himself said "death of a thousand cuts". Look at the wings. Is there a top 6 winger on the roster right now?

After 61 games last year the wings (excluding Draisaitl ) scored 60 ES goals. This year they have scored 63. Your narrative sounds great but it is just not accurate. The reality is that the scoring on the wing has been more by committee which is why it is less noticeable. You don't seem to want to count people like Puljujarvi who has 9 goals in 43 games because he's not going to score 20.

The major drop off in scoring across the board has been on the pp. Most of that is from Lucic and Leon.

The primary difference in the team this year vs last is in goaltending (with help from injuries to the defense) and in the special teams, most importantly the home pk.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

After 61 games last year the wings (excluding Draisaitl ) scored 60 ES goals. This year they have scored 63. Your narrative sounds great but it is just not accurate. The reality is that the scoring on the wing has been more by committee which is why it is less noticeable. You don't seem to want to count people like Puljujarvi who has 9 goals in 43 games because he's not going to score 20.

The major drop off in scoring across the board has been on the pp. Most of that is from Lucic and Leon.

The primary difference in the team this year vs last is in goaltending (with help from injuries to the defense) and in the special teams, most importantly the home pk.

I mean 9 goals in 43 games would be more ideal if the guy wasn't touted as the next Jari Kurri, or at least a triggerman for McDavid who was going to pop many goals.

There as a pretty lengthy stretch from the start of the season where the entire bottom 6 had zero goals, and we have many players in goal scoring droughts. After Maroon eventually gets traded we're going to be left without any goal scoring wingers. The Oilers are banking on the likes of Yamamoto, JP, Cagguila, Slepyshev, and others to replace the goals that were let go from last year.

 

[backhandsauce]

That game made me change my user name. Formally backhandsauce.

 

[Panda Bear]

I mean 9 goals in 43 games would be more ideal if the guy wasn't touted as the next Jari Kurri, or at least a triggerman for McDavid who was going to pop many goals.

Confidence, development, experience, playing time, and coaching all go together.

JP will be better next year than this year, and a different set of coaches could do wonders for him.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Confidence, development, experience, playing time, and coaching all go together.

JP will be better next year than this year, and a different set of coaches could do wonders for him.

I certainly hope so. The Oilers need him to be better.

 

[Fourier]

I mean 9 goals in 43 games would be more ideal if the guy wasn't touted as the next Jari Kurri, or at least a triggerman for McDavid who was going to pop many goals.

There as a pretty lengthy stretch from the start of the season where the entire bottom 6 had zero goals, and we have many players in goal scoring droughts. After Maroon eventually gets traded we're going to be left without any goal scoring wingers. The Oilers are banking on the likes of Yamamoto, JP, Cagguila, Slepyshev, and others to replace the goals that were let go from last year.

So now you seem to be changing your focus. Was the issue the 20 goals the "they never replaced" this year or the goals that they are not going to replace next year?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So now you seem to be changing your focus. Was the issue the 20 goals the "they never replaced" this year or the goals that they are not going to replace next year?

My issue is that they let a bunch of players go from last year's roster and didn't adequately replace them while simultaneously torpedoing the cap for future years. It's really more than just Eberle. They let a few useful players go while expecting lesser players to replace them.

 

[Fourier]

My issue is that they let a bunch of players go from last year's roster and didn't adequately replace them while simultaneously torpedoing the cap for future years. It's really more than just Eberle. They let a few useful players go while expecting lesser players to replace them.

For the record I am not arguing that there are not legitimate issues to be concerned about. But I actually think that the potential for real damage is in front of us not behind us.

The reality is that from a cap perspective the Oilers have less space this year than you think because CapFriendly does not reflect overages with respect to the bonus cushion. The Oilers current roster has $2.5M in additional cap commitments due to the bonus cushion. Had they kept both Eberle and Pouliot they would be very close to the ceiling right now. It was probably one or the other. Personally I'd have probably kept Eberle for one more year if all they could get was Strome. But I also think Strome is somewhat better than he is generally given credit for here and the fact is that Eberle was not going to be an option for next year anyway. In any case, there would have been little option to upgrade the roster since anyone you could sign would want term and the Oilers could not afford to do that until Leon and McDavid were signed.

Chia's cap management is concerning. Based on his comments today I suspect that if he does resign Maroon and Letestu we will see Nuge traded in a similar deal to the Eberle/Strome deal. At best he might be able to get a 2nd pairing offensive defenseman unless it is a much bigger deal since he will need to probably keep the cap hit down.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

For the record I am not arguing that there are not legitimate issues to be concerned about. But I actually think that the potential for real damage is in front of us not behind us.

The reality is that from a cap perspective the Oilers have less space this year than you think because CapFriendly does not reflect overages with respect to the bonus cushion. The Oilers current roster has $2.5M in additional cap commitments due to the bonus cushion. Had they kept both Eberle and Pouliot they would be very close to the ceiling right now. It was probably one or the other. Personally I'd have probably kept Eberle for one more year if all they could get was Strome. But I also think Strome is somewhat better than he is generally given credit for here and the fact is that Eberle was not going to be an option for next year anyway. In any case, there would have been little option to upgrade the roster since anyone you could sign would want term and the Oilers could not afford to do that until Leon and McDavid were signed.

Chia's cap management is concerning. Based on his comments today I suspect that if he does resign Maroon and Letestu we will see Nuge traded in a similar deal to the Eberle/Strome deal. At best he might be able to get a 2nd pairing offensive defenseman unless it is a much bigger deal since he will need to probably keep the cap hit down.

Keeping Eberle for another year was a no-brainer. No real reason to buy out Pouliot either. I get that there's overages and bonuses and things like that but you deal with that when it happens. The Hawks constantly slammed their heads against the cap ceiling and still found a way to be competitive for a decade. Strome really does nothing for me. He's exactly what Islanders fan said he was: A middling 30 point player. No more than that.

The problem is that Chiarelli just assumed he could coast on McDavid's coattails to an easy playoff spot instead of doing his job, which is to put the best team on the ice. You worry about the present in the present and the future when it comes. McDavid's ELC is gone now and the cap gets much tighter from here on in.

Given that Chiarelli didn't upgrade the roster until January even when the roster was drowning I fail to see how having so much cap space was beneficial to the team at all.

 

[Fourier]

Keeping Eberle for another year was a no-brainer. No real reason to buy out Pouliot either. I get that there's overages and bonuses and things like that but you deal with that when it happens. The Hawks constantly slammed their heads against the cap ceiling and still found a way to be competitive for a decade. Strome really does nothing for me. He's exactly what Islanders fan said he was: A middling 30 point player. No more than that.

The issue is not even bonus carryover. It is the bonus cushion itself. The $2.5M I am talking about is hard on the cap this year. So it would have happened as soon as Puljujarvi was on the roster.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The issue is not even bonus carryover. It is the bonus cushion itself. The $2.5M I am talking about is hard on the cap this year. So it would have happened as soon as Puljujarvi was on the roster.

Then don't put him on. Is there something I'm missing here?

 

[Fourier]

Then don't put him on. Is there something I'm missing here?

Now you are just compounding a bad decision with another. You are essentially going to keep Puljujarvi in the AHL so that you can keep Pouliot for one more year? You really think that this team is in any different position with Eberle/Pouliot vs Puljujarvi/Strome? I don't even dislike Pouliot but he was in the dog house a lot of the year in Buffalo and since McLellan did not trust him at all he probably would have been a regular healthy scratch here. Mean while the guy paying the price is that Oilers top prospect. This is why as bad as Chia might be if people here got their way things would likely be much worse.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Now you are just compounding a bad decision with another. You are essentially going to keep Puljujarvi in the AHL so that you can keep Pouliot for one more year? You really think that this team is in any different position with Eberle/Pouliot vs Puljujarvi/Strome? I don't even dislike Pouliot but he was in the dog house a lot of the year in Buffalo and since McLellan did not trust him at all he probably would have been a regular healthy scratch here. Mean while the guy paying the price is that Oilers top prospect. This is why as bad as Chia might be if people here got their way things would likely be much worse.

Well this goes back to their mishandling of JP from last year. There's nothing wrong with letting him develop because if he's learning anything with the big club I'm not seeing it. Now we're stuck with 1.5 million in dead cap space that after this year we'll need.

And yes I do think the team might be a little better with Eberle/Pouliot. A 50-60 point winger and a good PKer vs. a sophomore who still looks like rookie and a 30-point do-nothing player? Give me the sure things every time.

There was no reason to downgrade the roster in the offseason. None.

 

[nabob]

After 61 games last year the wings (excluding Draisaitl ) scored 60 ES goals. This year they have scored 63. Your narrative sounds great but it is just not accurate. The reality is that the scoring on the wing has been more by committee which is why it is less noticeable. You don't seem to want to count people like Puljujarvi who has 9 goals in 43 games because he's not going to score 20.

The major drop off in scoring across the board has been on the pp. Most of that is from Lucic and Leon.

The primary difference in the team this year vs last is in goaltending (with help from injuries to the defense) and in the special teams, most importantly the home pk.

This post has been said many a time and you nailed it again.

Talbot has been off his game more often than he has been on. LB was actually really good in his limited time last year, was terrible this year. All of our top 3 Dman have been injured for most of the season. Klefboms injury has been a huge blow to overall defense, the PK and the PP.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

This post has been said many a time and you nailed it again.

Talbot has been off his game more often than he has been on. LB was actually really good in his limited time last year, was terrible this year. All of our top 3 Dman have been injured for most of the season. Klefboms injury has been a huge blow to overall defense, the PK and the PP.

Yeah, people keep going on about the forwards, but the ability of this team to improve next year depends on the ability of Klefbom, Sekera, Talbot, and I guess Larson to an extent to bounce back/stay healthy. The forwards on the team may not be contending quality, but they are certainly playoff quality.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yeah, people keep going on about the forwards, but the ability of this team to improve next year depends on the ability of Klefbom, Sekera, Talbot, and I guess Larson to an extent to bounce back/stay healthy. The forwards on the team may not be contending quality, but they are certainly playoff quality.

Based on what, exactly? After Maroon gets traded we have even worse wingers than we did before. Tough to be inspired when the best winger after Maroon is probably Kassian right now.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

Based on what, exactly? After Maroon gets traded we have even worse wingers than we did before. Tough to be inspired when the best winger after Maroon is probably Kassian right now.

Lucic isn't having a great year, but he is still an above average NHLer. He may be on the downswing, but looking at his career, he is the model of inconsistency year to year (which is pretty typical of anyone but the best), so it is pretty crazy to write him off and declare that Kassian > Lucic.

Beyond that, the wingers may not be great, but they aren't the problem this year. Our GF, although low, is in line with many playoff teams, and that is with an abysmal PP. Our GA is really bad though. Beyond that, we've seen the whole 'awesome forwards but poor defense and goaltending' script before, and it looked a lot like this season. Everything starts from the back end at EVs, and not being able to generate any kind of credible point threat hurts our PP a lot.

I personally think that our defense and goaltending are a good bet to bounce back next year, and that will make us look a lot better. If they don't, adding an Eberle to the team isn't going to matter much.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

As an aside, I get that it is hard to watch Hall, Eberle and Barzel do so well. But a little perspective. Last year NYI had 94 points. This year, they've added Barzal and Eberle for free, and are on pace for... 86 points.

The year before Hall arrived, NJ had 84 points. Hall's first year with them 70, and finally this year they are on pace for 94 - which is good, not great, and that is with Hall going full beast mode.

The reality is that the variance in the NHL seems to be incredibly high right now, and it is very hard to know what you really have year-to-year. Very few teams/players are consistent, and we have two players that should be consistently among the best in the league. That is a huge advantage. Obviously they still need a team around them, but when it comes to guys like Talbot and Klefbom (who occupy positions in our depth chart that are *vital* to our success), it is basically impossible to be certain which way they will break (closer to last year or this year), unless you have insight to why they have been struggling. And even then.

Again, shuffling the wingers isn't going to do anything if our best defensive players don't rebound. Klefbom, Talbot, and Sekera are the players that Chia needs to make the (correct) decision on
- nothing else is going to have the kind of impact we need to turn the ship around.

 

[oXo Cube]

As an aside, I get that it is hard to watch Hall, Eberle and Barzel do so well. But a little perspective. Last year NYI had 94 points. This year, they've added Barzal and Eberle for free, and are on pace for... 86 points.

The year before Hall arrived, NJ had 84 points. Hall's first year with them 70, and finally this year they are on pace for 94 - which is good, not great, and that is with Hall going full beast mode.

The reality is that the variance in the NHL seems to be incredibly high right now, and it is very hard to know what you really have year-to-year. Very few teams/players are consistent, and we have two players that should be consistently among the best in the league. That is a huge advantage. Obviously they still need a team around them, but when it comes to guys like Talbot and Klefbom (who occupy positions in our depth chart that are *vital* to our success), it is basically impossible to be certain which way they will break (closer to last year or this year), unless you have insight to why they have been struggling. And even then.

Again, shuffling the wingers isn't going to do anything if our best defensive players don't rebound. Klefbom, Talbot, and Sekera are the players that Chia needs to make the (correct) decision on
- nothing else is going to have the kind of impact we need to turn the ship around.

Nobody on here gives a shit about how the Islanders or Devils are doing.

We want to undo those trades because we want the Oilers to do well and the returns we got for those players are all terrible.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

Nobody on here gives a **** about how the Islanders or Devils are doing.

We want to undo those trades because we want the Oilers to do well and the returns we got for those players are all terrible.

Ok great, but if the players we gave up aren't pushing the needle on their respective teams, why would you assume they would on ours?