Official Trade Deadline 2019 Thread

[Sore Loser]

Again... I said it this summer and I feel it worth repeating again.

If we are trading for Mark Stone (we should) Oliver Bjorkstrand must be going the other way. He is the young, still upside, great value contract that Melnyk the Hutt will want. Plus, that will alleviate some of our top 9 RW issues that'd be exacerbated by adding Stone.

I'm totally in favor of working out some sort of 3-way deal with OTT and FLA. As written, I don't think these proposals are the move. I still think, for a signed Stone, that I'm very comfortable sending Bjorkstrand, Abramov, Carlsson, and a 1st to Ottawa.

Too rich for my blood. I really think that Bjorkstrand is on the cusp and will be a 60-70 point guy in this league, even for an extended Stone I don't think I make that trade. I probably don't make that trade 1 for 1, though I'm sure that will get me jeers.

Thinking back to when we traded Rick Nash, a lot of people were mentioning McDonagh as part of a package. I remember an offended Rags fan coming to our board and saying something like this, he wouldn't trade McDonagh straight up for Nash.

I'm not saying this is the same scenario, or pointing out that Bjorkstrand and McDonagh share any commonalities - but it's hard to justify giving up on young players when they are just hitting their stride. Imagine if we had gotten McDonagh in that deal, say instead of Anisimov or Dubinsky. The Rangers would have heartily lost that trade.

I fear, if we deal Bjorkstrand off, we will feel the same way.

 

[Sore Loser]

Thanks for the kind words.

Can you be more specific? You've been away for a while, perhaps you didn't realize just how ready this board is to unload Wennberg and Bobrovsky. Aging Eric Staal just had 76 points and has 37 so far this year, which is safely 4th on the Blue Jackets, I don't think the board would mind trading Wennberg for that. I've been Bob's biggest backer but the FO has to decide whether he is mentally with the club or not, whether he's going to be a good teammate. We won't be getting much value for him in a trade, but we might have to move him. I don't have the info to make such a decision, I'm just trying to make a realistic guess with the information we have.

If Stone hits the trade deadline market, he'll be the best value player on it since, what, Kovalchuk ten years ago? I didn't give up any of Foudy, Gavrikov, Texier, Bemstrom, Stenlund, Vehvillainen, or Merzlikins, - our top prospects - and you're telling me we're getting ripped off?

I think you are getting back too much age, and taking on more weight than we need. I get that to pick up great players, you have to pay heavy. But the guys you have coming back don't seem to appeal to our roster that much. Even without Bobrovsky, I don't see what the use would be for Talbot. He's had one good season and is already 31. We don't have a need for another bottom-6 winger like M Foligno, and Eric Staal isn't the player he was 5 years ago. I just don't see how this makes us better in the long term.

 

[majormajor]

Again... I said it this summer and I feel it worth repeating again.

If we are trading for Mark Stone (we should) Oliver Bjorkstrand must be going the other way. He is the young, still upside, great value contract that Melnyk the Hutt will want. Plus, that will alleviate some of our top 9 RW issues that'd be exacerbated by adding Stone.

I'm totally in favor of working out some sort of 3-way deal with OTT and FLA. As written, I don't think these proposals are the move. I still think, for a signed Stone, that I'm very comfortable sending Bjorkstrand, Abramov, Carlsson, and a 1st to Ottawa.

Melnyk's claimed plan to spend to the cap doesn't have him at the cap for another couple years, so they're not as in need of immediate scorers. They'll be in the Lafreniere sweepstakes and try and emerge from there. When they do emerge, they'll need new players at every position, one in particular that they could use is RHD, that's why I think they'd go for Peeke but not Carlsson. They can wait for prospects.

 

[majormajor]

I think you are getting back too much age, and taking on more weight than we need. I get that to pick up great players, you have to pay heavy. But the guys you have coming back don't seem to appeal to our roster that much. Even without Bobrovsky, I don't see what the use would be for Talbot. He's had one good season and is already 31. We don't have a need for another bottom-6 winger like M Foligno, and Eric Staal isn't the player he was 5 years ago. I just don't see how this makes us better in the long term.

We might just have to agree to disagree on the value of size in the playoffs. But regardless of that, the appeal of the lineup I posted shouldn't really be befuddling anybody, it's a very high scoring bunch.

You think I'm just blinded by what Staal did 5 years ago? Perhaps that is you with Brassard from 5 years ago, or Wennberg from 2 years ago. Staal is the much better player right now.

Talbot only one good season, you say? His first season below .917 sv% was last year, prior to that he had 4 years above that mark, and two playoff series with a combined .924 sv%. I watch the Oilers, he was very good prior to last year. Perhaps Jimmy Howard would be a better rental, either way it's smarter to rent than spend $10m next year on Quick and Reimer, who are both sub .900 this year.

 

[GoJackets1]

I think you are getting back too much age, and taking on more weight than we need. I get that to pick up great players, you have to pay heavy. But the guys you have coming back don't seem to appeal to our roster that much. Even without Bobrovsky, I don't see what the use would be for Talbot. He's had one good season and is already 31. We don't have a need for another bottom-6 winger like M Foligno, and Eric Staal isn't the player he was 5 years ago. I just don't see how this makes us better in the long term.

SL, I just wanted to say how glad I am that you’re posting here frequently again. I’ve always appreciated your insight, and have always found that we agree on a lot of things.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

I thought I had read somewhere that Huberdeau in an interview said that he was unhappy in Florida due to the team not winning enough but I can't find a link to it. If true, perhaps he has asked for a trade and that is why he is being mentioned as a potential trade target.

 

[Toe Pick]

From LeBrun via Athletic. A lot of what we’ve already tossed around here but still interesting:

“No doubt most people think the Columbus Blue Jackets are bluffing when they say that keeping Artemi Panarin as their own rental is an option.

And while I do believe it’s more like than not that they trade away the pending UFA star winger before the Feb. 25 trade deadline, I don’t think the own-rental premise is a red herring. Far from it. They will keep Panarin under one very specific circumstance in my mind. Let’s game theory the scenario to explain:

The Jackets receive their best offer for Panarin and decide to move him. To replace him on the roster for this season, Columbus swings a deal with a team which is also offering up a rental player (e.g.: Matt Duchene). The key for the Jackets is the net difference between both deals must amount to Columbus walking away with a key future asset for it to make sense for them.

Because there’s almost no chance GM Jarmo Kekalainen simply sells off Panarin without also trying to replace him in some fashion via a separate transaction. He wants to give his team a chance to win this season.

But if the difference between what he’s getting on Panarin and what he has to pay to replace him up front is minimal, then what’s the point? The Jackets would simply keep Panarin instead.

All of which is why I think Kekalainen, like many other teams, is keenly waiting to see how the Duchene/Mark Stone situation plays out in Ottawa. Not only because I think he would inquire on Duchene but also because Ottawa’s two pending UFAs are going to impact the market for Panarin.

Now, to me, you’ve got three very different players here: Panarin is the most dynamic offensive player of the group, as impactful a difference-maker offensively as we’ve seen on the rental market in a long time; Stone is the most well-rounded winger, an absolute stud who does it all; Duchene is a rare commodity, a top offensive centre that is actually available if indeed Ottawa decides to move him. Furthermore, he’s played really well this season on a losing team.

What could change the worth of these rentals on the market is if Duchene and/or Stone are no longer rentals but rather signed commodities instead. Because we know Panarin has publicly made it clear that he’s going to the July 1 market. It’s not so clear with Stone and Duchene, there could be a chance to get those guys signed as part of the process. I know it’s a possibility that agent Pat Brisson has discussed with Duchene as part of their due diligence.

If you’re the Senators, and you can’t sign those players, surely you want them to sign with your trading partner in order to ramp up the return. Of course the Sens could simply add a conditional pick to the deal instead, but I think if they sign in real time with their new team, that augments their trade value in real time. Now, there are some teams who would only want them as rentals. Winnipeg comes to mind. The Jets are in a salary cap predicament after this season and are looking for strictly a rental player, at least at the onset.

Panarin will be a rental but that doesn’t mean Columbus won’t protect itself just in case. I’m told Kekalainen has informed interested parties that part of the deal to get Panarin would be to include a conditional asset in the event, no matter how remote, that Panarin would indeed stay put and re-sign with his new team after the season.”

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

That's a nice summary and, in some respects, in-depth explanation of what's coming up.

I think it's particularly instructive, given I've been reading the trade board and the discussions there about Panarin, to reiterate that Panarin is not going to sign with anyone, be it the CBJ or a team that's looking to acquire him in trade, prior to the summer UFA period. I know the trade boards are just for fun, but there is so much discussion on there about "my team's only interested in him if he's signed" or "Panarin as a rental kills his value." It's almost worthless to think of it in any other terms. Teams looking to add Panarin should be ones who view him as a top-flight rental who they hope to bring in prior to the summer to in the hopes it entices him to give their club a greater chance of singing him, be it familiarity, success or the 8th year.

 

[EspenK]

That's a nice summary and, in some respects, in-depth explanation of what's coming up.

I think it's particularly instructive, given I've been reading the trade board and the discussions there about Panarin, to reiterate that Panarin is not going to sign with anyone, be it the CBJ or a team that's looking to acquire him in trade, prior to the summer UFA period. I know the trade boards are just for fun, but there is so much discussion on there about "my team's only interested in him if he's signed" or "Panarin as a rental kills his value." It's almost worthless to think of it in any other terms. Teams looking to add Panarin should be ones who view him as a top-flight rental who they hope to bring in prior to the summer to in the hopes it entices him to give their club a greater chance of singing him, be it familiarity, success or the 8th year.

Which if true seem to lessen the chances that a team is giving up a 1st, a player and a prospect. I know that is still possible looking no further back than last year's acquisition of Rick Nash by the Bruins.

I think any team interested in acquiring him would have to take the position that the above is a secondary goal to having him help them win a Cup. Florida, if the rumors are true, would be an exception to this line of thinking.

Of course the Jackets have to play the game from both sides. If they trade Bread they need to make a corresponding move to replace him, for example Duchene or Stone.

Going to be a long 12 days till the TDL is past.

 

[blahblah]

Going to be a long 12 days till the TDL is past.

I'm feeling quite conflicted. I'm excited to see what moves we make. I also have a feeling of trepidation. This is likely the end of the Panarin era. Either this month or following the end of the season.

This is a big few months for this franchise.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think any team interested in acquiring him would have to take the position that the above is a secondary goal to having him help them win a Cup. Florida, if the rumors are true, would be an exception to this line of thinking.

Agreed with your post, and addressing this, was the implication of "top-flight rental" in my post.

 

[Sore Loser]

SL, I just wanted to say how glad I am that you’re posting here frequently again. I’ve always appreciated your insight, and have always found that we agree on a lot of things.

Thanks for the kind words! I try to stick around but I had a tough year and it's been a little kooky. Glad to be back.

 

[Sore Loser]

We might just have to agree to disagree on the value of size in the playoffs. But regardless of that, the appeal of the lineup I posted shouldn't really be befuddling anybody, it's a very high scoring bunch.

You think I'm just blinded by what Staal did 5 years ago? Perhaps that is you with Brassard from 5 years ago, or Wennberg from 2 years ago. Staal is the much better player right now.

Talbot only one good season, you say? His first season below .917 sv% was last year, prior to that he had 4 years above that mark, and two playoff series with a combined .924 sv%. I watch the Oilers, he was very good prior to last year. Perhaps Jimmy Howard would be a better rental, either way it's smarter to rent than spend $10m next year on Quick and Reimer, who are both sub .900 this year.

Like you said, we will have to agree to disagree. No sense in beating up numbers and breaking down how we feel, it isn't going to change my perspective. We will see how things shake down, going to be interesting either way.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The conditional pick thing is new, and it makes sense. Smart for jarmo to potentially protect himself.

I’m really starting to grow on Duchene/Stone. Just hope we could get them signed long term. If we can do that, and trade panarin then are in good shape next year with cap to play with.

 

[EspenK]

The conditional pick thing is new, and it makes sense. Smart for jarmo to potentially protect himself.

I’m really starting to grow on Duchene/Stone. Just hope we could get them signed long term. If we can do that, and trade panarin then are in good shape next year with cap to play with.

I'm not sure if we sign them both, extend Murray & Z and add a veteran goalie if we'll have much room to play with, especially with Dubois & Andy to sign after next year.

I guess we could go light on Elvis or VV (?) and buyout Foligno to make it work but it will take some maneuvering.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm not sure if we sign them both, extend Murray & Z and add a veteran goalie if we'll have much room to play with, especially with Dubois & Andy to sign after next year.

I guess we could go light on Elvis or VV (?) and buyout Foligno to make it work but it will take some maneuvering.

Depends on how much Murray/Z want and get I guess.

 

[Sore Loser]

I'm not sure if we sign them both, extend Murray & Z and add a veteran goalie if we'll have much room to play with, especially with Dubois & Andy to sign after next year.

I guess we could go light on Elvis or VV (?) and buyout Foligno to make it work but it will take some maneuvering.

Are we really to the point of buying out Foligno? He still seems pretty productive and is obviously a leader on the team. Sure he's probably a bit overpaid, but I don't think it's enough to merit buying him out.

If you're buying someone out, buy out Dubinsky.

 

[EDM]

There is no way the FO would even consider buying out Foligno who is the Team Captain and the Number 1 Emissary to the Central Ohio community. Not going to happen.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Are we really to the point of buying out Foligno? He still seems pretty productive and is obviously a leader on the team. Sure he's probably a bit overpaid, but I don't think it's enough to merit buying him out.

No. The notion is absurd and can be dismissed out of hand without any feelings of compunction.

 

[majormajor]

I'm not sure if we sign them both, extend Murray & Z and add a veteran goalie if we'll have much room to play with, especially with Dubois & Andy to sign after next year.

I guess we could go light on Elvis or VV (?) and buyout Foligno to make it work but it will take some maneuvering.

The last time I did cap calculations I found we could pay $20m to Bob and Artemi and still only be a few million over the cap when Dubois gets extended (this would require letting go of just one player - say, Wennberg or Jenner (Dubi buyout already assumed)). So if we were to replace Bob + Panarin + Wennberg with Elvis/VV + Stone + Duchene we'd be just fine cap-wise. Stone and Duchene will most likely cost less than Bob and Panarin. If we wanted a veteran goalie on top of Stone and Duchene, then yes, another player would have to go.

 

[EspenK]

Are we really to the point of buying out Foligno? He still seems pretty productive and is obviously a leader on the team. Sure he's probably a bit overpaid, but I don't think it's enough to merit buying him out.

If you're buying someone out, buy out Dubinsky.

There is no way the FO would even consider buying out Foligno who is the Team Captain and the Number 1 Emissary to the Central Ohio community. Not going to happen.

Buying out Dubi is a given imo. Buying out Foligno is only an option to consider for the last year of his deal. If it keeps Duchene, Stone, Zach, Andy, Murray & PLD locked up for long term and you need money to extend Seth, something has to give. Buying out Foligno's last year may be the only answer. Savard's last also. Or trade them for picks and prospects. Now if we can't sign both Duchene & Stone the problem goes away.

 

[EspenK]

No. The notion is absurd and can be dismissed out of hand without any feelings of compunction.

Is this a more polite way of saying "give me a break'?

 

[Sore Loser]

Buying out Dubi is a given imo. Buying out Foligno is only an option to consider for the last year of his deal. If it keeps Duchene, Stone, Zach, Andy, Murray & PLD locked up for long term and you need money to extend Seth, something has to give. Buying out Foligno's last year may be the only answer. Savard's last also. Or trade them for picks and prospects. Now if we can't sign both Duchene & Stone the problem goes away.

It's probably moot because I don't think we get both Duchene and Stone. I think it's one or the other.

 

[Old Guy]

Pierre LeBrun's article today in The Athletic makes a lot of sense.

If the package that Jarmo is being offered for Panerin isn't appreciably different than the package he would have to give up to obtain Duchene or Stone, then isn't he better off just keeping the better player he has currently on his roster?

To trade Atremi and not bring something back that can help this year seems to me like it would be akin to saying to your team; "Thanks for all your effort guys, but we just can't be real serious about trying to win this year."

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Is this a more polite way of saying "give me a break'?

I was hoping you'd notice.