Official 2015 Tank Thread Part 1: "No more half measures"

[MayDay]

[/B]I 100% agree which is why I don't fully understand this obsession about flat out sucking this year. In my opinion that would be the ultimate step back and would make this rebuild drag on. Let us enjoy some wins at least lol. Did you see what the fans did in Edmonton last night. They boo'd the entire team rather than chanting fire McTavish.

The youngsters will be fine no matter how much we suck this year. Most of them aren't even in Buffalo anyway, and the ones that are have the right attitude (like Girgensons) where losses aren't going to destroy them.

The single most important goal of this season is getting McEichel. Period.

Will the rebuild be a failure without one of those guys? No, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying, if we don't get McEichel, it will be hard to regard this season as anything other than a gigantic missed opportunity.

We're going to lose a ton of games this season no matter what - those losses will feel less worth it if they don't net us the big prize in the end.

 

[Sabretooth]

Three games ago, they were 78%. Time to stop paying attention to their weighted formula.

Using the 50/50 version, our odds dropped from 25 to 18.

I still don't understand your beef with the weighted version, and if you think the 50/50 version is more accurate, then I really think you still don't understand what the website is actually attempting to do.

 

[sabrebuild]

The youngsters will be fine no matter how much we suck this year. Most of them aren't even in Buffalo anyway, and the ones that are have the right attitude (like Girgensons) where losses aren't going to destroy them.

The single most important goal of this season is getting McEichel. Period.

Will the rebuild be a failure without one of those guys? No, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying, if we don't get McEichel, it will be hard to regard this season as anything other than a gigantic missed opportunity.

We're going to lose a ton of games this season no matter what - those losses will feel less worth it if they don't net us the big prize in the end.

It's to painful to point out that these last two wins are aberrations and we could easily lose 5 out of the next 6.

The point about the young guys isn't that it hurts their feelings to lose. It's that they are good enough even at this age to positively affect NHL games. It shows that Girgs and risto are not prospects but damn good young nhlers.

 

[MayDay]

I still don't understand your beef with the weighted version, and if you think the 50/50 version is more accurate, then I really think you still don't understand what the website is actually attempting to do.

Whatever one's beef with the weighted formula, the 50/50 model is obviously inferior, since it assumes that the outcome of each game is a 50-50 coin-flip - and that's obviously very false.

An accurate model MUST weight simulations so that superior teams (and home teams) have a better chance of winning. Because that's what happens in reality. If the Sabres played the next 10 games in Chicago against the Blackhawks, they wouldn't win 5. They'd win 1, maybe 2.

You can object to the weighting formula, but you can't object to the concept of weighting. And people shouldn't cite the 50/50 formula for anything, since it is obviously worthless.

 

[haseoke39]

I still don't understand your beef with the weighted version, and if you think the 50/50 version is more accurate, then I really think you still don't understand what the website is actually attempting to do.

The weighting has made it seem like their odds are way too high all along. They're far too sensitive. A reasonable system probably would have had the weighted version very close to the 50/50 version until a meaningful sample size had been accrued, at least a month or so. Instead we were at 70% odds of last like, 5 games into the season. It was just silly.

The longer we go on into the season, the more the weighting will have accounted for a team's highs and lows, the better it will reflect reasonable odds. That's happening now, it's being adjusted down because the team is on a high. In another couple months, it might be worth really gauging by.

Bottom line: from the description of the formula and judging by its results, it has no way of accounting for small sample sizes. So you shouldn't really pay attention to it until the sample size is reasonably large.

 

[haseoke39]

Whatever one's beef with the weighted formula, the 50/50 model is obviously inferior, since it assumes that the outcome of each game is a 50-50 coin-flip - and that's obviously very false.

An accurate model MUST weight simulations so that superior teams (and home teams) have a better chance of winning. Because that's what happens in reality. If the Sabres played the next 10 games in Chicago against the Blackhawks, they wouldn't win 5. They'd win 1, maybe 2.

You can object to the weighting formula, but you can't object to the concept of weighting. And people shouldn't cite the 50/50 formula for anything, since it is obviously worthless.

I don't object to the concept of weighting, but I do object to weighting badly. The fact is, something like 5 games into the season we were over 70% odds of finishing last, or 20% odds using the 50/50.

Neither measure was good. But for my money, the 50/50 was probably closer to reality because the weighting was just so bad. Trying to weight the results is good unless you do it so badly you're worse off than you started.

 

[Sabretooth]

I don't object to the concept of weighting, but I do object to weighting badly. The fact is, something like 5 games into the season we were over 70% odds of finishing last, or 20% odds using the 50/50.

Neither measure was good. But for my money, the 50/50 was probably closer to reality because the weighting was just so bad. Trying to weight the results is good unless you do it so badly you're worse off than you started.

Tell you what. From now on, I'll track what the site uses to weight the sabres after each game. Its trivial to do, but unfortunately I can't go back and compare what the weighting is now vs. what it was a week or 2 ago.

Right now, the weighted method predicts the sabres will most likely finish with 70pts, and it will take a 0.452 pts percentage the rest of the way to get there. The 50/50 method predicts the sabres will most likely finish with 82pts and the simulating gives a 0.548 pts percentage the rest of the way to get there. And of course the simulation can also predict the variance, which is best shown with a bell curve:

Currently, the sabres have 14 out of a possible 42 points in 21 games, a 0.333 pts percentage. Like I said I can't speak for what the site was a week or 2 ago, but right now it is clear that the weighted version is pretty reasonable or at least much closer to reasonable than the 50/50 version. (Although, I'd still take the under on the sabres hitting 70 pts so even the weighted version seems to be overly optimistic on the sabres right now.)

 

[Woodhouse]

Atlantic point projections: "They include points obtained. But they are based purely on score,venue, and schedule adjusted 5v5 possession."

 

[Woodhouse]

Micah Blake McCurdy ‏@IneffectiveMath 7h
5v5 Possession, with Buffalo.

Micah Blake McCurdy @IneffectiveMath 7h
5v5 Possession, without Buffalo.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

You were conspicuously quiet in this thread before the three-game winning streak. Not surprisingly, you're in here beating your chest now. I wish I could say I didn't expect as much from you, but I did.

I'll save this post.



It is? Worse possession team. Worse goal differential. You're awful emboldened by two wins in games in which we were outshot 74-40. Don't worry, I'm sure this "better roster" will continue scoring a goal every 8 shots, and that our goaltenders will save 72/74 (.973).

I'm actually slightly nervous about the tank because of the following three developments:
Girgensons-Ennis representing our most competitive (from a possession/defense/goal differential perspective) in years.
Flynn-Mitchell-Gionta being a league average D-Zone starting vet line, which we haven't even had the bodies for since trading Roy.
Z-R replacing the black hole of suck on the second pairing.

The nice thing is, it's built almost entirely on the backs of kids, so it's probably not sustainable, but even if just Girgensons and Risto stick in their current roles, all of a sudden, we're a historically average bottom 3 team, way more dependent on injuries and puck luck than I'd like after this ****ing start.

 

[sabrebuild]

I'm actually slightly nervous about the tank because of the following three developments:
Girgensons-Ennis representing our most competitive (from a possession/defense/goal differential perspective) in years.
Flynn-Mitchell-Gionta being a league average D-Zone starting vet line, which we haven't even had the bodies for since trading Roy.
Z-R replacing the black hole of suck on the second pairing.

The nice thing is, it's built almost entirely on the backs of kids, so it's probably not sustainable, but even if just Girgensons and Risto stick in their current roles, all of a sudden, we're a historically average bottom 3 team, way more dependent on injuries and puck luck than I'd like after this ****ing start.

The injuries are the thing. Guys are gonna go down and we don't have the depth to replace them to maintain a bot 3 position.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Jackets already lost to the Jets 4-2 and the Oil is down 3-1 to the Stars after 2. Not going to be a great night for the tank.

 

[Zman5778]

Jackets already lost to the Jets 4-2 and the Oil is down 3-1 to the Stars after 2. Not going to be a great night for the tank.

I know some advanced stats say differently..............and it's only 1/4 of the way through the season..........but I'm starting to become legitimately concerned that the Oil might out-tank us.

 

[1972]

Does Edmonton think this team is just magically going to be good? I understand analytics everything to some people but they absolutely need to develop an identity, get some character in there lineup and pay attention to the details. I understand that Taylor Hall and some of those other young players can do no wrong but they need to really work on their details, they make so many mistakes that shouldn't happen in the NHL even if their players are bad. We are far less talented but have a far more detail oriented team then they do, which isn't saying much but...

Someone on that team needs to do something out of character, they just go through the motions. Maybe Jordan Eberle or Taylor Hall need to need to set the tone and hold themselves and teammates accountable. I understand that we have the worst possession numbers and goal differential, but it's borderline arrogant to mock people who are slightly worried them or CBJ finish behind us.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I know some advanced stats say differently..............and it's only 1/4 of the way through the season..........but I'm starting to become legitimately concerned that the Oil might out-tank us.

Abnormally high save percentage in Buffalo
Abnormally low save percentage in Edmonton.

That team has too much talent to be this bad all year. Eakins will eventually get sacked and when that happens they'll get a better coach. RonRol's gloves are better coaches so it won't be hard.
Not In the slightest worried

 

[1972]

Abnormally high save percentage in Buffalo
Abnormally low save percentage in Edmonton.

That team has too much talent to be this bad all year. Eakins will eventually get sacked and when that happens they'll get a better coach. RonRol's gloves are better coaches so it won't be hard.
Not In the slightest worried

Is it? I mean them getting 65 points wouldn't be a shock, considering they get pounded in the western conference night after night. At the end of the day, they give up way too many grade A scoring chances and have no resemblance of a system, just river hockey. I mean, you watch us and them play and while we give up alot more shots we don't give up near as many good scoring chances, and when both your goalies are back up caliber there isn't anyone to bail them out.

It's honestly comical how bad management has been, they basically have a Grigorenko situation going on with Draisaitl because they had no one else to fill that spot, they have to goalies who have never been seen as anything more then backups, and a bunch of overpaid bottom pair defenceman.

 

[sabrebuild]

Does Edmonton think this team is just magically going to be good? I understand analytics everything to some people but they absolutely need to develop an identity, get some character in there lineup and pay attention to the details. I understand that Taylor Hall and some of those other young players can do no wrong but they need to really work on their details, they make so many mistakes that shouldn't happen in the NHL even if their players are bad. We are far less talented but have a far more detail oriented team then they do, which isn't saying much but...

They are in a lot of trouble, and not because they have no talent. But apparently it is because their management are delusional about who matters and who doesn't. I mean at this point they would be better off trading Eberle and Hall for a real 2c with defensive skills and a legitimate top 4 center, plus whatever extra they could scratch away. That way they could get better and hopefully still pull one of the McEichel's. But at this rate, they basically are holding out hope that Nurse is the real deal eventually, draisatl will eventually be a 1a/b with RNH and I guess some other d like Marincin show up to help... I mean that is still like 2 years at least away from happening and Hall is what, 23. So hopefully if everything works out perfect they finish their rebuild 7 years after Hall gets drafted. Ouch.

 

[sjci]

Oil tried but came up short, lose 3-2

 

[La Bamba]

One simply does not out tank the Oilers...

 

[EichHart]

One simply does not out tank the Oilers...

Year 9 of no playoffs, and still happy and proud to tank. If that happens to this fan base...

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

And the Sabres Are now out of 30th. But right, we are assured "McEichel"

****ing Oilers. They are an embarrassment to professional sports.

 

[1972]

And the Sabres Are now out of 30th. But right, we are assured "McEichel"

****ing Oilers. They are an embarrassment to professional sports.

Tell me how you really feel.

 

[ZeroPT*]

And the Sabres Are now out of 30th. But right, we are assured "McEichel"

****ing Oilers. They are an embarrassment to professional sports.

Dude it's been 20 (TWENTY) games!!

 

[cybresabre]

Dude it's been 20 (TWENTY) games!!

If we let one team by us per 20 games, we'll be sitting in 5th by April. If we end up with Marner or Zacha after pining for McEichel for two painful years, the poor kid will never a fair shake around here even if he turns out to be a good player.

 

[enthusiast]

take the fever dream scenarios and replace mceichel with strome

that's still a damn good team