stokes84
Registered User
No. Nolan was trying to figure out what worked. But we were never significantly worse than last year. That would be virtually impossible.
Better roster.
Official 2015 Tank Thread Part 1: "No more half measures"
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No. Nolan was trying to figure out what worked. But we were never significantly worse than last year. That would be virtually impossible.
Better roster.
If they replace who? Psysk is a better replacement only if Weber or whoever is being rotated at 6th defender is hurt.
Armia maybe is an upgrade over Stewart and....
NEcoli
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- Apr 13, 2014
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You were conspicuously quiet in this thread before the three-game winning streak. Not surprisingly, you're in here beating your chest now. I wish I could say I didn't expect as much from you, but I did.
I'll save this post.
It is? Worse possession team. Worse goal differential. You're awful emboldened by two wins in games in which we were outshot 74-40. Don't worry, I'm sure this "better roster" will continue scoring a goal every 8 shots, and that our goaltenders will save 72/74 (.973).
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Really? because our performances have't at all reflected that.
On the ice this team is just as putrid as it was last year. The wins we're getting are unsustainable
stokes84
Registered User
It's funny that was ok for others to berate me for my opinion after the first 5 or 10 games. It's fine when people with your opinion beat their chest about how they were right and I should eat crow, but it's offensive to you when it appears to be going the other way.
"People were being mean to me, so now I'm going to be mean to me." I hope you're not this petulant in your everyday life.
In any event, we'll see who's right by the end of this season. I'm confident that they can't keep beating these percentages.
NEcoli
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Right. So they've only managed to outplay a below average team who was on the 2nd night of a back to back.
I'm not so sure about him over Strachan today. Next year sure. As for the other three, I'm pretty sure that's who I listed. Tho to be fair is Psysk really better than Weber? He will be better, but this year Weber has played a safe physical game. If it would be an upgrade it would be minor.
On the flip side if the injured dman is Myers or Risto this team is gonna have serious issues
NEcoli
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That was the other game I had in mind.. I didn't watch it though.
If they played the Sharks and Leafs 30 times a year, I'd be worried about the tank.
I'm not worried at this point. At all. They've been getting better goaltending and the shot quality has decreased, but still, they're going to lose alot more than they win.
If they go, on average, 2-3 every 5 games for the next 60 games......thats 62 points. More than bad enough to be the worst team in the league.
Edmonton will get better and play around .500 or a bit above it. Columbus will get MUCH better and will be aggressive about improving.. Colorado has too much offensive talent to stay down this long, even if the coaching is awful. Carolina is my biggest concern, especially if they move out Sekera.
If they go, on average, 2-3 every 5 games for the next 60 games......thats 62 points. More than bad enough to be the worst team in the league.
Edmonton will get better and play around .500 or a bit above it. Columbus will get MUCH better and will be aggressive about improving.. Colorado has too much offensive talent to stay down this long, even if the coaching is awful. Carolina is my biggest concern, especially if they move out Sekera.
My concerns are Arizona faltering, selling off everyone and doing what we did last year (we weren't 14 points back at the deadline...we did A LOT of damage after it. And we don't have the assets to move to impact our record nearly as much this time) and Edmonton since the players have given up and management won't make changes.
that's a badass tank vid. haha don't be the one hanging out in front of it thought. #hearingimpaired
Girgs an mcCor didn't have that great a game. Those are usually my difference makers. McCormick went out and Girgs was neutral. I think the rest of the team stepped up in this instance.
Make the team the tank
Make the team the tank
How much better? It's not like Psysk is being a monster in the A. And it wasn't like he was great last year. He was steady. Which is great for a young guy. But considering the amount of time we spend in our end Weber has been very solid this year. Psysk would be a much more noticeable upgrade over mess or benoit. So an improvement on our 5-6 dman.
MayDay
Registered User
We're dead even with Edmonton (66.67% of pts lost) and Columbus is only a hair behind at 65%.
The race has tightened dramatically in the last week or so.
The race has tightened dramatically in the last week or so.
Methinks we'll probably stop winning games in which we're outshot by an average of 17 shots/game (like the last two wins). Don't worry.
FamilyGuy716
Registered User
Damn... I thought we'd have last place locked up by end of January. It could be close all year long unless we go on a big winless streak.
Which maybe scary for a guaranteed top two pick, but if the youngsters are the ones driving semi-competitive play, thats what you want to see for overall team future.
Sabre the Win
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I 100% agree which is why I don't fully understand this obsession about flat out sucking this year. In my opinion that would be the ultimate step back and would make this rebuild drag on. Let us enjoy some wins at least lol. Did you see what the fans did in Edmonton last night. They boo'd the entire team rather than chanting fire McTavish.
Sabretooth
Registered User
You're basically arguing that imperfect data is useless because sometimes it is wrong. There is variance/spread in any correlation. The point isn't to see a few instances where the data doesn't fit and declare the correlation unreliable, the point is to look at it statistically. "No guarentee" is a pretty worthless argument. Nothing is ever guarenteed, and the only people who never seem to realize that are the same people always using the "No guarentee" argument. Your Florida/Ottowa example isn't even a particularly good one, as Florida led the league in OT/SO losses that year, and if you take 8 of those OT losses and make them regulation losses to match Ottawa (keeps their same goal diff), then they drop in points to 86 and 20th place, right around where they'd be expected to be based on their goal differential. But of course you should expect the correlation to not be as good the closer to even goal differential you get, when quirks like who gets more loser points comes into play. But that is irrelevant to this discussion, as we're talking about whether goal differential can predict whether the sabres will finish last.
Since the Sabres existed, 35 of the last 43 seasons the team with the worst goal differential finished in last place, or 81.4% of the time. In the last 20 seasons, the "success rate" is 17/20, or 85%. In the last 10 seasons, only 1 time has the team with the worst goal differential not finished in last place (90% "success"), and in each of the past 5 seasons the team with the worst goal differential finished last (100%).
With this data, I can also tell you that in every case the team with the worst goal differential did not finish last, the team that did finish last was within 0.2375 goal differential/game, or within ~19-20 goals in an 82 game season. Right now after 21 games, the sabres are 0.4286 goal diff/game worse than the next closest team in goal diff - almost twice the margin the Washington Capitals had when they got beat out for last place by the Minnesota North Stars in 1978.
What this means is that if the sabres finish worst in goal differential by more than 20 goals, which they're well on their way to doing, then historically they are practically guarenteed to finish last in the standings. Before I'd even worry a little about the sabres not finishing in last, they'd have to get a lot closer in goal differential to the next closest team (within about 5 goals at this point of the season). If the sabres end up -133 and the Oilers end up -98 like their current goal differentials project to, it is very unlikely the oilers would be tied or behind the sabres. A team that goes -70 the rest of the year is not going to lose as much as a team that goes -100 the rest of the year. Also take into account that the sabres are on a 3 game winning streak while the oilers are on a 4 game regulation losing streak and still they're just tied in points... well at some point this season, the streaks will go back the other way.
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